1999 Portuguese legislative election

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The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

After becoming the first minority government in Portuguese democracy to complete a full 4-year term,[1] the Socialist Party was aiming a second term under the lead of Prime Minister António Guterres, as a good economy and Portugal's growing prestige, following the Expo 1998 and the support for the East-Timor cause, were strengthening the PS position.[2] Polls leading up to the election predicted a comfortable PS majority government. Adding to this, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), was exiting an internal crisis after former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned in March 1999 amid disagreements with the CDS-People's Party leader, Paulo Portas, regarding a future PSD/CDS alliance for these elections.[3] The party elected, in a snap party congress in May 1999, José Manuel Durão Barroso as new leader.

Despite opinion polls predictions, the election results were labeled as a disappointment for the Socialists as the party failed to win a historical absolute majority by just one MP and barely improved their 1995 score, just 0.3 percentage points.[4] The disappointing PS score would create instability in Guterres second government in the years to follow.[5] The Social Democratic Party was still away from the preferences of the majority of the Portuguese people, after the ten years cycle under the lead of Cavaco Silva that had terminated four years before, and lost 7 MPs, compared with 1995, and gathered 32 percent of the votes. The Democratic Unity Coalition achieved an important climb in the scorecard, against those who predicted its irreversible decline after the end of the Socialist Bloc in the early 1990s. The CDS-People's Party was able to hold on to its 15 MPs after tensions with the PSD earlier that year. For the first time, the Left Bloc, formed after the merger of several minor left-wing parties became represented in the parliament after electing two MPs.

Turnout in this election was very low, only being surpassed by all elections after 2009 when turnout stands below 60 percent. Overall, voter turnout was only 61 percent of voters, one of the lowest ever recorded.

Background

Leadership changes and challenges

PSD 1996 leadership election

After leading his party to two successive defeats, in the 1995 election and in the 1996 Presidential election, then PSD leader Fernando Nogueira resigned.[6] A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1996. For that leadership ballot, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced his candidacy, just a few days after saying a phrase that would become famous in Portuguese politics, "Not even if Christ descends to earth, will I run."[7] Marcelo faced Pedro Santana Lopes, which repeated his failed bid of 1995. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was easily elected as PSD leader.[8] The results were the following:

Ballot: 30 March 1996Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa 603 66.4
Pedro Santana Lopes 305 33.6
Turnout 908
Source: Results

CDS–PP 1998 leadership election

Then CDS leader, Manuel Monteiro, resigned from the leadership after the party's poor results in the 1997 local elections.[9] Paulo Portas, which had a tense relationship with Monteiro, announced his candidacy but faced the candidate of the "Monteiro wing", Maria José Nogueira Pinto. The congress was very tense, with strong accusations between both candidates, but in the end Paulo Portas was elected as new party leader:[10]

Ballot: 22 March 1998Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
bgcolor=Template:Party color| Paulo Portas WIN
bgcolor=Template:Party color| Maria José Nogueira Pinto
Turnout
Source:

PSD 1999 leadership election

Then PSD leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa plan to creat an electoral alliance with the CDS – People's Party was splitting his party, but nonetheless, the alliance was approved in a party congress in February 1999.[11] However, at the same a time, a scandal involving CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas, the "Moderna affair", in which corrupt deals and bad management were done in Moderna University,[12] was creating a bad mood between PSD and CDS–PP and, specially, between the two party's leaders.[13] In late March, Paulo Portas gives an interview on SIC that precipitated Marcelo's resignation. In that interview, Portas says that the PSD needs to come clean and say if they trust the CDS leader, and that Marcelo told him that a majority of the PSD leadership doesn't like him and feels he's a liability to the alliance.[14] Feeling betrayed and seeing that Portas was untrustworthy, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa resigned from the PSD leadership. A snap party congress was called for early May, and, as the sole candidate, José Manuel Durão Barroso was unanimously elected as the new PSD leader:

Ballot: 1 May 1999Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
José Manuel Durão Barroso 100.0
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system

File:Eleições legislativas 1999.png
Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[15]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[16] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[17]

For these elections, and compared with the 1995 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[18]

District Number of MPs Map
Lisbon(–1) 49
Porto 37
Braga(+1) 17
Setúbal 17
Aveiro(+1) 15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real 5
Bragança, Évora and Guarda 4
Beja(–1) and Portalegre 3
Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 7th legislature (1995–1999) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1995 result
% Seats
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| PS Socialist Party
Partido SocialistaScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Social democracy
Third Way
Centre-left to Centre António Guterres 43.8% Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social DemocrataScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism
Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 34.1% Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido PopularScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Christian democracy
Conservatism
Centre-right
to right-wing
Paulo Portas 9.1% Template:Composition bar
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista PortuguêsScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
8.6%
Template:Efn
Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Eco-socialism
Green politics
Left-wing Isabel Castro Template:Composition bar

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PS « Portugal em boas mãos » "Portugal in good hands" [19]
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PSD « Vamos cumprir » "We will deliver" [20]
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CDS–PP « Alternativa'99 » "Alternative'99" [21]
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CDU « Para que não fique tudo na mesma » "So that everything will not stay the same" [22]
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| BE « É tempo de ser exigente » "It's time to be demanding" [23]

Candidates' debates

1999 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)   Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:Colors Present  Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:Colors Absent inviteeScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:Colors Non-invitee Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
PS
GuterresScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
PSD
BarrosoScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
CDU
CarvalhasScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
CDS–PP
PortasScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Refs
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"|
16 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P P N N [24]
17 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N N P P [24]
19 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P N P [24]
20 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N P N [24]
21 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho P N N P [24]
22 Sep SIC José Alberto Carvalho N P P N [24]
23 Sep RTP1 Judite de Sousa P P P P [25]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debateScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP Notes
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"|
16 Sep SIC SIC Template:Party shading/PS| 57 25 18% NeitherScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".

Opinion polling

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1995 and 1999 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

  1. REDIRECT Template:Legend inline
Polling Firm Date Released PS PSD CDS–PP CDU BE O Lead
style="background:Template:Party color;"| style="background:Template:Party color;"| style="background:Template:Party color;"| style="background:Template:Party color;"| style="background:Template:Party color;"|
1999 legislative election 10 Oct 1999 44.1
Template:Font
32.3
Template:Font
8.3
Template:Font
9.0
Template:Font
2.4
Template:Font
3.9
Template:Font
11.8
UCP 10 Oct 1999 46.0 30.3 7.5 8.5 2.5 5.2 15.7
Seeds 10 Oct 1999 46.3 31.5 8.0 9.8 2.8 1.6 14.8
Intercampus 10 Oct 1999 46.3 28.6 8.3 9.5 3.2 4.1 17.7
Euroexpansão 2 Oct 1999 50 32 8 6 2 2 18
Seeds 1 Oct 1999 47 32 7 8 1 5 15
Metris 1 Oct 1999 48 31 7 7 1 6 17
UCP 1 Oct 1999 47.2 30.0 7.2 7.9 2.8 4.9 17.2
Marktest 30 Sep 1999 46.2 30.7 4.2 10.6 2.8 5.5 15.5
Aximage 30 Sep 1999 49 33 6 7 1 4 16
Euroexpansão 25 Sep 1999 50.0 33.8 16.2 16.2
SIC/Visão 23 Sep 1999 46.8 31.8 21.4 15.0
Euroexpansão 18 Sep 1999 49.0 35.4 15.6 13.5
Independente 17 Sep 1999 45.0 34.2 20.8 10.8
UCP 14 Sep 1999 56.4 30.1 13.5 26.3
UCP 29 Jul 1999 52.0 31.6 6.2 6.9 1.9 1.4 20.4
1999 EP elections 13 Jun 1999 43.1 31.1 8.2 10.3 1.8 5.5 12.0
UCP 19 Mar 1999 55.3 32.6Template:Efn 9.3 2.0 0.8 22.7
UCP Sep 1998 45.3 36.1 5.2 6.9 6.5 9.2
1997 local elections 14 Dec 1997 41.3 35.2 6.3 12.0 5.2 6.1
UCP 21 Mar 1997 40 33 6.5 8 12.5 7
UCP Dec 1996 47 29 24 18
1995 legislative election 1 Oct 1995 43.8
Template:Font
34.1
Template:Font
9.1
Template:Font
8.6
Template:Font
4.4
Template:Font
9.7

Results

National summary

Summary of the 10 October 1999 Assembly of the Republic elections resultsScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
File:Portugal Parliament 1999.svg
Parties Votes % ± MPs
1995 1999 ± % ±
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

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2,385,922 44.06 Increase0.3 112 115 Increase3 50.00 Increase1.3
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

1,750,158 32.32 Decrease1.8 88 81 Decrease7 35.22 Decrease3.1
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shellTemplate:Efn

487,058 8.99 Increase0.4 15 17 Increase2 7.39 Increase0.9
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

451,643 8.34 Decrease0.7 15 15 Steady0 6.52 Steady0.0
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

132,333 2.44 2 0.87
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

40,006 0.74 Increase0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

19,938 0.37 Increase0.3 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

16,522 0.31 0 0.00
National Solidarity 11,488 0.21 Steady0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

7,346 0.14 0 0.00
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

4,104 0.08 Increase0.1 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shellTemplate:Efn

438 0.01 Decrease0.0 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
Total valid 5,306,956 98.00 Decrease0.1 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0
Blank ballots 56,964 1.05 Increase0.3
Invalid ballots 51,230 0.95 Decrease0.1
Total 5,415,102 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,864,604 61.09 Decrease5.2
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
44.06%
PSD
32.32%
CDU
8.99%
CDS-PP
8.34%
BE
2.44%
PCTP/MRPP
0.74%
Others
1.12%
Blank/Invalid
2.00%
Parliamentary seats
PS
50.00%
PSD
35.22%
CDU
7.39%
CDS-PP
6.52%
BE
0.87%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 1999 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituencyScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Constituency % S % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE
Azores style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|53.3 3 35.8 2 1.7 - 5.6 - 1.1 - 5
Aveiro style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|40.2 7 38.3 6 3.5 - 13.6 2 1.3 - 15
Beja style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|46.7 2 14.5 - 28.3 1 3.9 - 1.6 - 3
Braga style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.3 8 36.7 7 5.4 1 8.9 1 1.2 - 17
Bragança 39.7 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|45.1 2 2.6 - 8.7 - 0.8 - 4
Castelo Branco style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|51.6 3 32.0 2 5.3 - 6.3 - 1.2 - 5
Coimbra style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|47.2 6 35.2 4 6.1 - 6.0 - 2.0 - 10
Template:HsÉvora style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|45.7 2 18.7 1 24.6 1 5.1 - 1.5 - 4
Faro style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|48.4 5 29.5 3 8.3 - 7.3 - 2.3 - 8
Guarda style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|43.4 2 39.2 2 3.2 - 9.8 - 1.1 - 4
Leiria 36.8 4 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|42.6 5 5.3 - 9.9 1 1.7 - 10
Lisbon style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|42.7 23 27.3 14 12.3 6 8.5 4 4.9 2 49
Madeira 35.1 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|46.2 3 2.8 - 10.9 - 1.2 - 5
Portalegre style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|51.2 2 22.5 1 15.0 - 5.9 - 1.2 - 3
Porto style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|48.0 19 32.7 13 6.2 2 7.5 3 2.3 - 37
Santarém style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|45.5 5 30.2 3 10.1 1 8.1 1 2.0 - 10
Setúbal style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|43.7 8 18.0 3 24.8 5 5.6 1 3.5 - 17
Viana do Castelo style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|40.2 3 35.8 2 5.0 - 14.0 1 1.2 - 6
Vila Real 40.8 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|45.5 3 2.4 - 6.8 - 0.8 - 5
Viseu 38.1 4 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.3 4 2.2 - 10.5 1 1.2 - 9
Europe style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|55.4 2 24.7 - 5.3 - 3.2 - 0.6 - 2
Outside Europe 39.8 1 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|49.5 1 1.7 - 3.5 - 0.4 - 2
Total style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.1 115 32.3 81 9.0 17 8.3 15 2.4 2 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Aftermath

Guterres second government was haunted by its failure in winning an absolute majority in the 1999 elections.[26] The tie between the Government and the opposition created a series of problems to Guterres as all opposition parties, PSD, CDU, CDS–PP and BE, refused to negotiate with the Government. In the 2000 budget, CDS–PP decided to abstain and the budget passed:[27]

2000 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 15 March 2000
Required majority → Simple
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Absentees Template:Composition bar
Result → Approved checkY
Sources[28][29]

However, after the 2000 budget, CDS–PP was no longer willing to support Guterres and, the solution found was a controversial one: With a sole CDS–PP MP, Daniel Campelo, Guterres secured the approval of his two following annual State Budgets in exchange for the government financing a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown of Ponte de Lima, in Viana do Castelo district. The 2001 and 2002 budgets were approved with the abstention of this sole CDS–PP MP:[30][31] Campelo was ultimately suspended from CDS–PP, and from November 2000 onwards, sat as an Independent.[32][33]

Template:Col-float

2001 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 29 November 2000
Required majority → Simple
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Absentees Template:Composition bar
Result → Approved checkY
Sources[34]

Template:Col-float-break

2002 State Budget
António Guterres (PS)
Ballot → 30 November 2001
Required majority → Simple
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Script error: No such module "collapsible list". Template:Composition bar
Absentees Template:Composition bar
Result → Approved checkY
Sources[35]

Template:Col-float-end

Fall of the government

Besides his fragile majority to approve major legislation, Guterres also suffered with a lot of instability within his own cabinet, with two reshuffles in just four months during 2001. The Hintze Ribeiro Bridge collapse generated public anger against the government, which eroded even more Guterres' popularity.[36] By 2001, the economy was also showing strong signs of slowdown, in a time when Portugal was about to enter into the Euro common currency and was suffering from the global impact of the September 11 attacks.[37] All these problems culminated in the December 2001 local elections, where the PS suffered a big defeat and saw major urban centers, mainly Lisbon and Porto, swing dramatically to the right-wing, so, in response, Guterres announced his resignation as Prime Minister.[38] President Jorge Sampaio dissolved Parliament and called an election for 17 March 2002.

Notes

Template:Notes

References

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  1. "Apenas um governo minoritário cumpriu o mandato até ao fim", Sábado, 8 October 2015. Retrieved 15 January 2025.
  2. "World: Europe Portugal goes to the polls", BBC News, 10 October 1999. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  3. "PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  4. "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 16 October 2016. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  5. "Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo ", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  6. "Demissão de Fernando Nogueira da liderança do PSD", RTP, 16 January 1996. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  7. "Nem que Cristo desça à terra", NewsMuseum. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  8. "Exclusivo Aconteceu em 1996 - Marcelo eleito presidente do PSD", Diário de Notícias, 31 March 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  9. "Monteiro demitiu-se do PP há cinco anos mas continua à espreita", Publico, 23 September 2001. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  10. "Monteiro demitiu-se do PP há cinco anos mas continua à espreita", RTP, 22 March 1998. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  11. "A angústia do voto secreto ", Publico, 19 February 1999. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  12. "Facturas associam Paulo Portas ao caso Moderna", Publico, 25 April 2003. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  13. "PSD. O dia em que Marcelo desistiu de ser primeiro-ministro", Jornal i, 26 March 2019. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  14. "Marcelo. O show do comentador acaba em Belém? ", Observador, 11 October 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2022.
  15. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  16. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  17. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  18. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  19. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
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  21. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  22. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  23. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  24. a b c d e f Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  25. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  26. "A noite que mudou a vida de Guterres ", Expresso, 13 October 2016. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  27. "CDS-PP viabiliza Orçamento do Estado", RTP, 16 February 2000. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  28. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  29. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  30. "Os orçamentos do PS e Daniel Campelo", RTP, 8 September 2015. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  31. "O autarca do queijo limiano", Diário de Notícias, 24 September 2005. Retrieved 26 April 2024.
  32. "Deputado Daniel Campelo", Assembly of the Republic. Retrieved 26 January 2025.
  33. "Campelo vai ser suspenso do PP ", Público, 9 May 2001. Retrieved 26 January 2025.
  34. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  35. Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  36. "Quando Jorge Coelho contrariou Guterres e pediu a demissão: "A culpa não pode morrer solteira"", Observador, 17 October 2017. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  37. " Guterres quer minimizar impacto da crise na economia nacional", Público, 8 October 2001. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
  38. "Guterres deve formalizar hoje pedido de demissão ", Público, 17 December 2001. Retrieved 8 December 2023.

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External links

See also

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