1995 Portuguese legislative election

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The 1995 Portuguese legislative election took place on 1 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

The incumbent prime minister, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, decided not to run for a fourth consecutive term[1] and the Social Democratic Party, choose Fernando Nogueira, one of Cavaco Silva's deputies, as leader and candidate for prime minister in a highly contested and bitter party congress in February 1995.[2] But, the PSD was weakened by the end of the 10-year cycle of governments led by Cavaco Silva, amid scandals and the 1994 25 April bridge riots that shocked the country.[3] During the campaign, Cavaco Silva toyed with the idea of running for the 1996 Presidential elections, which he ultimately did.[4]

The PS easily won the elections with 44 percent of the votes, against the 34 percent of the PSD, achieving their first general election victory since 1983 and after a decade in opposition, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs. António Guterres, elected as PS leader three years before, became prime minister. The Social Democratic Party suffered a heavy defeat, losing almost 50 seats and 17 percentage points. This election marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition (CDU) achieved only 15 MPs each, and for the first time ever the CDU failed to win a single district.

Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980. Voter turnout stood at 66.3 percent, the lowest until then.

Background

Leadership changes and challenges

The four main parties all changed their leaders during the 1991–1995 legislature.

PS 1992 leadership election

The 1991 general election Socialist defeat, and the scale of it, surprised the party, with António Guterres actually saying he "was in shock".[5] Then PS leader, Jorge Sampaio, faced a lot of criticisms about his strategy but, announced he was running for reelection as party leader. He would face António Guterres and Álvaro Beleza.[6] A party leadership congress was called for February 1992, but, during the days prior to the start of the congress, Sampaio withdrew from the race and Guterres was easily elected as party leader:[7] The results were the following:

Ballot: 21 February 1992Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
António Guterres 88.0
Álvaro Beleza 12.0
Jorge Sampaio withdrew
Turnout
Source:[7]

CDS–PP 1992 leadership election

Then CDS leader, Diogo Freitas do Amaral, resigned from the leadership following the party's poor results in the 1991 general elections.[8] A party congress to elect a new leader was called for late March 1992 and 3 candidates were on the ballot: Manuel Monteiro, Basílio Horta, the party's candidate for the 1991 Presidential election and António Lobo Xavier.[9] Manuel Monteiro was easily elected as leader:[10]

Ballot: 21 March 1992Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
Manuel Monteiro WIN
Basílio Horta
António Lobo Xavier
Turnout
Source:

PCP 1992 leadership election

The historic Portuguese Communist Party leader, Álvaro Cunhal, announced he would step down from the leadership of the party in late 1992.[11] Carlos Carvalhas, the party's deputy leader was chosen as Cunhal's successor and was unanimously elected, but Cunhal remained a powerful figure within the party as a new body, the National Council, was created and Cunhal would lead it.[12]

Ballot: 5 December 1992Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
Carlos Carvalhas 100.0
Turnout
Source:

PSD 1995 leadership election

After serving almost 10 years as prime minister, there were doubts if Cavaco Silva would run for another term, thus, creating a big "taboo" in Portuguese politics.[13] Cavaco promised a decision during the spring of 1995, but in January 1995, he announced he would not run for another term as prime minister and PSD leader.[14] This led the PSD to call a congress to elect a new leader. The congress become iconic for how tense and stormy it was, with strong accusations between several party members.[15] Three candidates announced a run for the leadership: Fernando Nogueira, former defense minister, José Manuel Durão Barroso, foreign affairs minister, and Pedro Santana Lopes, former culture secretary.[16] Santana Lopes withdrew before the ballot, and Fernando Nogueira narrowly defeated Durão Barroso by just 33 votes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 19 February 1995Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Candidate Votes %
Fernando Nogueira 532 51.6
José Manuel Durão Barroso 499 48.4
Pedro Santana Lopes withdrew
Turnout 1,031
Source:[17][18]

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[19]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[20] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[21]

For these elections, and compared with the 1991 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following:[22]

District Number of MPs Map
Lisbon 50
Porto 37
Setúbal(+1) 17
Braga 16
Aveiro 14
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real(–1) 5
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda 4
Portalegre 3
Europe and Outside Europe 2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 6th legislature (1991–1995) and that also partook in the election:

Name Ideology Political position Leader 1991 result Seats at
dissolution
% Seats
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social DemocrataScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism 		Centre-right Fernando Nogueira 50.6% Template:Composition bar Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| PS Socialist Party
Partido SocialistaScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Social democracy
Third Way 		Centre-left António Guterres 29.1% Template:Composition bar Template:Composition bar
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista PortuguêsScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Communism
Marxism–Leninism 		Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
8.8%
Template:Efn 		Template:Composition bar Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Eco-socialism
Green politics 		Left-wing Isabel Castro Template:Composition bar Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido PopularScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Christian democracy
National conservatism 		Centre-right
to right-wing 		Manuel Monteiro 4.4% Template:Composition bar Template:Composition bar
PSN National Solidarity Party
Partido da Solidariedade NacionalScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Humanism
Pensioners' rights 		Centre Carlos Bastos 1.7% Template:Composition bar Template:Composition bar
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| Ind. Independent
IndependenteScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Diogo Freitas do Amaral (left the CDS – People's Party caucus)Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".[23] Template:Composition bar

Seat changes

  • On 9 December 1992, former party leader, founder and MP Diogo Freitas do Amaral, elected in the CDS list for Lisbon, left the party and became an Independent member following deep disagreements regarding the ideological and political direction of the party led by Manuel Monteiro, elected just a few months earlier.[24]

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PSD « Mais e melhor para Portugal » "More and better for Portugal" [25]
width="1" style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| PS « A nova maioria » "The new majority." [26]
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CDU « Vamos dar a volta a isto » "Let's turn this around" [27]
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color"| CDS–PP « Vamos dar lugar a Portugal » "Let's make way for Portugal" [28]

Candidates' debates

The 1995 debates, between PSD leader Fernando Nogueira and PS leader António Guterres, were the first general election debates since the 1985 elections.

1995 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)   Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:Colors Present  Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:Colors Absent inviteeScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:Colors Non-invitee Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".
PSD
NogueiraScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		PS
GuterresScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". 		Refs
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"|
6 Sep RTP1 José Eduardo Moniz
Maria Elisa Domingues 		P P [29]
13 Sep SIC Miguel Sousa Tavares
Margarida Marante 		P P [29]

Opinion polling

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.

  1. REDIRECT Template:Legend inline
  2. REDIRECT Template:Legend inline
Polling firm/Link Date Released PSD PS CDU CDS–PP O Lead
style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"| style="color:inherit;background:Template:Party color;"|
1995 legislative election 1 Oct 1995 34.1
Template:Font 		43.8
Template:Font 		8.6
Template:Font 		9.1
Template:Font 		4.4
Template:Font 		9.7
Euroteste 1 Oct 1995 35–39
Template:Font 		40–45
Template:Font 		7–9
Template:Font 		7–9
Template:Font 		— 5–6
Metris 1 Oct 1995 34.5
Template:Font 		42.2
Template:Font 		9.0
Template:Font 		9.2
Template:Font 		5.1
Template:Font 		7.7
UCP 1 Oct 1995 35.5 41 8 10 5.5 5.5
Norma 29 Sep 1995 40.3 35.2 9.7 9.3 5.5 5.1
Metris 23 Sep 1995 32 42 10 8 8 10
Euroteste 23 Sep 1995 35 39 9 10 7 4
Euroexpansão 23 Sep 1995 32.7 44.5 11.5 6.9 4.4 11.8
UCP 23 Sep 1995 35 40 9 10 6 5
DN/TSF 18 Sep 1995 33.6 49.7 — — 16.7 16.1
IPSOS 22 Sep 1995 35 41 9 9 6 6
Marktest 21 Sep 1995 33 42 10 9 6 9
DN/TSF 18 Sep 1995 35 38 — — 27 3
Compta 16 Sep 1995 39 40 12 8 1 1
Euroexpansão 16 Sep 1995 33.7 41.8 8.8 9.1 6.6 8.1
UCP 14 Sep 1995 34 42 — — 24 8
Semanário 14 Sep 1995 38.5 40 — — 21.5 1.5
DN/TSF 11 Sep 1995 42 42 — — 17 Tie
Euroexpansão 9 Sep 1995 31.8 41.5 11.5 8.7 6.5 9.7
Compta RH 28 Jul 1995 35.8 43.6 11.7 7.0 1.8 7.8
Compta RH 14 Jul 1995 36.8 44.4 9.9 6.5 2.4 7.6
Compta RH 30 Jun 1995 34.8 45.4 8.6 8.1 3.1 10.6
Compta RH 9 Jun 1995 31.2 45.6 9.7 8.6 4.9 14.4
Euroteste 1 May 1995 40.5 42.5 — — 17 2
1994 EP elections 12 Jun 1994 34.4 34.9 11.2 12.5 7.0 0.5
1993 local elections 12 Dec 1993 33.7 40.2 12.8 8.4 4.9 6.5
Euroteste 24 Sep 1993 44.5 34.8 10.0 8.7 2.0 9.7
Euroexpansão 29 May 1993 33.8 34.6 — — 31.6 0.8
Euroteste 29 May 1993 45.5 34.3 — — 20.2 11.2
1991 legislative election 6 Oct 1991 50.6
Template:Font 		29.1
Template:Font 		8.8
Template:Font 		4.4
Template:Font 		7.1
Template:Font 		21.5

Results

National summary

Summary of the 1 October 1995 Assembly of the Republic elections resultsScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
File:Portugal Parliament 1995.svg
Parties Votes % ± MPs
1991 1995 ± % ±
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

2,583,755 43.76 Increase14.7 72 112 Increase40 48.70 Increase17.4
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

2,014,589 34.12 Decrease16.5 135 88 Decrease47 38.26 Decrease20.4
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shellTemplate:Efn

534,470 9.05 Increase4.7 5 15 Increase10 6.52 Increase4.3
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shellTemplate:Efn

506,157 8.57 Decrease0.2 17 15 Decrease2 6.52 Decrease0.9
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

41,137 0.70 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

37,638 0.64 Decrease0.5 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
style="width: 10px" bgcolor=Template:Party color align="center" | People's Democratic Union 33,876 0.57 Increase0.5 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
National Solidarity 12,613 0.21 Decrease1.5 1 0 Decrease1 0.00 Decrease0.4
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

8,279 0.14 — — 0 — 0.00 —
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

8,235 0.14 — — 0 — 0.00 —
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell / People's Monarchist

5,932 0.10 — — 0 — 0.00 —
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

2,544 0.04 — — 0 — 0.00 —
  1. REDIRECT Template:Party name with color

Template:Redirect category shell

2,536 0.04 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0
Total valid 5,791,761 98.08 Increase0.0 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0
Blank ballots 45,793 0.78 Decrease0.0
Invalid ballots 67,300 1.14 Increase0.0
Total 5,904,854 100.00
Registered voters/turnout 8,906,608 66.30 Decrease1.5
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
 
 43.76%
PSD
 
 34.12%
CDS-PP
 
 9.05%
CDU
 
 8.57%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 0.70%
PSR
 
 0.64%
UDP
 
 0.57%
Others
 
 0.67%
Blank/Invalid
 
 1.92%
Parliamentary seats
PS
 
 48.70%
PSD
 
 38.26%
CDS-PP
 
 6.52%
CDU
 
 6.52%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 1995 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the
Republic by constituencyScript error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters".Template:Election table/category
Constituency % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDS–PP CDU
Azores 37.6 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|47.8 3 9.4 - 1.8 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 6 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|41.2 6 12.6 2 2.7 - 14
Beja style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|45.8 2 15.7 1 3.6 - 29.2 1 4
Braga style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|42.9 8 38.2 7 10.7 1 4.5 - 16
Bragança 40.3 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.8 2 9.4 - 1.9 - 4
Castelo Branco style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|53.2 3 32.1 2 7.2 - 5.3 - 5
Coimbra style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|49.1 6 34.5 4 7.1 - 5.1 - 10
Template:Hs Évora style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|42.6 2 20.2 1 5.2 - 26.9 1 4
Faro style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|49.6 5 29.2 3 8.3 - 7.8 - 8
Guarda style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|43.7 2 39.9 2 9.9 - 2.3 - 4
Leiria 36.7 4 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|43.3 5 11.4 1 4.5 - 10
Lisbon style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.3 24 29.0 15 9.4 5 12.0 6 50
Madeira 32.0 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|46.1 3 12.9 - 1.3 - 5
Portalegre style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|50.5 2 23.4 1 6.3 - 14.0 - 3
Porto style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|46.7 18 36.4 14 7.8 3 6.0 2 37
Santarém style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|45.8 5 31.0 3 8.7 1 9.5 1 10
Setúbal style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.9 9 18.4 3 7.2 1 23.8 4 17
Viana do Castelo 38.8 3 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|42.1 3 11.3 - 4.6 - 6
Vila Real 40.0 2 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|46.0 3 7.8 - 1.9 - 5
Viseu 38.4 4 style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|44.3 4 11.5 1 1.8 - 9
Europe style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|35.1 1 33.8 1 4.4 - 6.4 - 2
Outside Europe 12.8 - style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|69.3 2 3.8 - 1.2 - 2
Total style="background:Template:Party color; color:white;"|43.8 112 34.1 88 9.1 15 8.6 15 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Notes

Template:Notes

References

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  1. ↑ "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD", RTP Arquivo, 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  2. ↑ ""Big Show PSD": Drama, comédia, suspense - há de tudo em 37 anos de congressos , TSF, 16 February 2018. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  3. ↑ "Bloqueio da ponte. O princípio do fim do cavaquismo foi há 25 anos", Diário de Notícias, 22 July 2019. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  4. ↑ "Conferência de imprensa de Cavaco Silva", RTP Arquivo, 7 February 1995. Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  5. ↑ "10 momentos que marcaram a vida do novo secretário-geral da ONU", Jornal Sol, 7 October 2016. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  6. ↑ "O ano em que (o muito jovem) Álvaro Beleza quis liderar o PS", Observador, 5 October 2015. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  7. ↑ a b "Perdeu PS para Guterres e Beleza ficou com votos do líder no congresso", Jornal de Notícias, 10 September 2021. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  8. ↑ "Demissão de Freitas do Amaral", RTP, 7 October 1991. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  9. ↑ "X Congresso do CDS", RTP, 21 March 1992. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  10. ↑ "Manuel Monteiro eleito líder do CDS", RTP, 22 March 1992. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  11. ↑ "A despedida de um líder que nunca deixou de o ser", Diário de Notícias, 14 June 2005. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  12. ↑ "Entrevista a Carlos Carvalhas", RTP, 6 December 1991. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  13. ↑ "O grande tabu quebrou-se há 20 anos ", Expresso, 16 February 2015. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  14. ↑ "Cavaco Silva não se recandidata ao PSD", RTP, 23 January 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  15. ↑ "OS SEGREDOS E OS NOMES DE UMA NOITE DE TEMPESTADE NO COLISEU", Correio da Manhã, 3 October 2003. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  16. ↑ "Candidatos do PSD em ações de campanha", RTP, 16 February 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  17. ↑ "XVII Congresso do PSD", RTP, 19 February 1995. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  18. ↑ "Os congressos quentes do PSD no poder ", Público, 23 March 2012. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  19. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  20. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  21. ↑ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  22. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  23. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  24. ↑ "Diogo Freitas do Amaral", RTP Arquivo, Retrieved 12 February 2025.
  25. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  26. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  27. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  28. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  29. ↑ a b Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".

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External links

See also

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