2010 Colorado gubernatorial election
Template:Short description Script error: No such module "For". Template:Use American English Script error: No such module "Unsubst". Script error: No such module "infobox".Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Template:ElectionsCO The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.[1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.[2]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Declined
- Bill Ritter, incumbent Governor[5]
- Ken Salazar, United States Secretary of the Interior and former U.S. Senator[6]
- Andrew Romanoff, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives (ran for U.S. Senate)[7]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | John Hickenlooper | Script error: No such module "string". | 100.00 | |
| Total votes | Script error: No such module "string". | 100.00 | ||
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Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Dan Maes, businessman[9]
- Scott McInnis, former U.S. Representative[10]
Declined
- John Suthers, Colorado Attorney General[11]
- Josh Penry, State Senator[12]
- Tom Tancredo, former U.S. Representative[13]
Pre-primary polling and developments
While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"[14] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"[15] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."[16] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.
McInnis vs. Maes
| Poll source | Dates administered | Dan Maes |
Scott McInnis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[17] | August 7–8, 2010 | 40% | style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 41% |
| Survey USA[18] | August 1, 2010 | style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% | 39% |
| Survey USA[19] | June 15–17, 2010 | 29% | style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 57% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Dan Maes | Script error: No such module "string". | 50.66 | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Scott McInnis | Script error: No such module "string". | 49.34 | |
| Total votes | Script error: No such module "string". | 100.00 | ||
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Libertarian Party
Candidates
- Jaimes Brown[20]
- Dan "Kilo" Sallis, 2008 vice presidential candidate of the Boston Tea Party[21]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Jaimes Brown | Script error: No such module "string". | 64.03 | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Dan Sallis | Script error: No such module "string". | 35.98 | |
| Total votes | Script error: No such module "string". | 100.00 | ||
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American Constitution Party
Confirmed
- Tom Tancredo, former Republican U.S. Representative[22]
General election
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Candidates
- Tom Tancredo (ACP), former Republican U.S. Representative
- Running mate: Pat Miller, former State Representative and nominee for CO-02 in 1994 and 1996
- Jaimes Brown (L)
- Running mate: Ken Wyble
- Jason R. Clark (UAF)
- Paul Fiorino (I)
- Running mate: Heather McKibbin
- John Hickenlooper (D), Mayor of Denver
- Running mate: Joe Garcia, Colorado State University-Pueblo President
- Dan Maes (R), businessman
- Running mate: Tambor Williams, former State Representative
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[23] | Template:USRaceRating | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[24] | Template:USRaceRating | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[25] | Template:USRaceRating | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] | Template:USRaceRating | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[27] | Template:USRaceRating | October 28, 2010 |
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 25, 2010 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 29, 2010 - C-SPAN
Polling
Graphical summary
Template:Graph:Chart
| Poll source | Dates administered | John Hickenlooper (D) |
Dan Maes (R) |
Tom Tancredo (ACP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[28] | October 30–31, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% | 8% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | October 29, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 49% | 5% | 42% |
| Public Policy Polling[30] | October 21–23, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% | 5% | 44% |
| Magellan Strategies[31] | October 22, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% | 9% | 43% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | October 15, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 42% | 12% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | October 3, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% | 16% | 35% |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | September 30 – October 2, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% | 13% | 33% |
| Survey USA[33] | September 28–30, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% | 15% | 34% |
| Fox News[34] | September 25, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44% | 15% | 34% |
| CNN/Time[35] | September 17–21, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47% | 21% | 29% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | September 14, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% | 21% | 25% |
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | August 29, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 36% | 24% | 14% |
| Ipsos/Reuters[37] | August 20–22, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 41% | 33% | 16% |
| 45% | 45% | –– | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[38] | August 11, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43% | 31% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[39] | August 7–8, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 48% | 23% | 22% |
| style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 50% | 38% | –– | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[40] | August 2, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 42% | 27% | 24% |
| Survey USA[41] | July 27–29, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% | 24% | 24% |
| style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 50% | 41% | –– | ||
| Rasmussen Reports[42] | July 15, 2010 | style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46% | 43% | –– |
| Survey USA[19] | June 15–17, 2010 | 44% | style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 45% | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports[43] | June 14, 2010 | 41% | 41% | –– |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | <templatestyles src="Template:Tooltip/styles.css" />±%Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | John Hickenlooper | Template:Replace | 51.05% | Script error: No such module "String". | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Tom Tancredo | 652,376 | 36.38% | Script error: No such module "String". | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Dan Maes | 199,792 | 11.14% | Script error: No such module "String". | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Jaimes Brown | 13,365 | 0.75% | Script error: No such module "String". | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Jason R. Clark | 8,601 | 0.48% | Script error: No such module "String". | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | Paul Noel Fiorino | 3,492 | 0.19% | Script error: No such module "String". | |
| Script error: No such module "Political party". | 86 | 0.00% | Script error: No such module "String". | ||
| Majority | 263,060 | 14.67% | Script error: No such module "String". | ||
| Turnout | 1,793,148 | Script error: No such module "String". | |||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution
- Baca (largest city: Springfield)
- Cheyenne (largest city: Cheyenne Wells)
- Moffat (largest city: Craig)
- Rio Blanco (largest city: Meeker)
- Mesa (largest city: Grand Junction)
- Delta (largest city: Delta)
- Montrose (largest city: Montrose)
- Park (largest city: Fairplay)
- Fremont (largest city: Canon City)
- Custer (largest city: Silver Cliff)
- El Paso (largest city: Colorado Springs)
- Douglas (largest city: Highlands Ranch)
- Teller (largest city: Woodland Park)
- Morgan (largest city: Fort Morgan)
- Logan (largest city: Sterling)
- Phillips (largest city: Holyoke)
- Washington (largest city: Akron)
- Lincoln (largest city: Limon)
- Elbert (largest city: Elizabeth)
- Yuma (largest city: Yuma)
- Prowers (largest city: Lamar)
- Kit Carson (largest city: Burlington)
- Kiowa (largest city: Eads)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Dolores (largest city: Dove Creek)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution
Aftermath
A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.
Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.[45][46]
As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.[47]
The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.
See also
- Colorado Democratic Party
- Colorado Republican Party
- American Constitution Party
- Libertarian Party of Colorado
References
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- ↑ "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 2010-07-17 1:37:13 AM MDT. Retrieved October 18, 2010.
- ↑ "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger", by David Caterese, politico.com, 7/26/10 12:01 PM EDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
- ↑ "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP", by Karen E. Crummy, The Denver Post, updated 27 July 2010 05:57:27 AM MDT. Retrieved 2010-07-27.
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Survey USA Template:Webarchive
- ↑ a b Survey USA
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- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Magellan Strategies
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Survey USA
- ↑ Fox News
- ↑ CNN/Time
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Ipsos/Reuters
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Public Policy Polling
- ↑ Rasmussen Reports
- ↑ Survey USA Script error: No such module "Unsubst".
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- ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
- ↑ Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
- ↑ Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
- ↑ John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.
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External links
- Colorado Secretary of State – Elections Division
- Colorado Governor Candidates Template:Webarchive at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Colorado Governor from Follow the Money
- Colorado Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
- 2010 Colorado Gubernatorial General Election: Dan Maes (R) vs John Hickenlooper (D) vs Tom Tancredo (i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Colorado Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Colorado Governor – McInnis vs. Hickenlooper from Real Clear Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- Collected news and commentary at Election 2010 at The Denver Post
Debate
- Colorado Republican Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, July 29, 2010
Official campaign websites (Archived)
- John Hickenlooper for Governor
- Dan Maes for Governor
- Tom Tancredo for Governor
- Jason Clark for Governor
- Jaimes Brown for Governor
Template:Colorado elections Script error: No such module "Navbox". Template:US Third Party Election