2000 SG344

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Template:Short description

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Template:Mp is a small Aten asteroid first observed in 2000. It is assumed to have a diameter of approximately Script error: No such module "convert". – or roughly twice that of the Chelyabinsk meteor – and an assumed mass of [[1 E10 kg|7.1Template:E kg]] (71,000 tonnes),[1] but the size is only known within about a factor 2. since February 2025Template:Dated maintenance category (articles)Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters"., it is the largest object known to have a better than 1/1000 chance (0.1%) of impacting Earth and has the fifth highest cumulative Palermo scale rating at −2.77. The next good chance to observe the object will be in May 2028 when it passes Script error: No such module "convert". from Earth.[2]

Because of its very Earth-like orbit and because it would have been near the Earth in 1971 (coinciding with the Apollo program), there was speculation that Template:Mp might not be an asteroid but a man-made object such as an S-IVB booster stage from a Saturn V rocket which would make it about 15 meters in diameter and much less massive.[3][4] (cf. J002E3, the S-IVB booster of Apollo 12 which was mistaken for an asteroid.)

Upcoming Earth approaches
Date & time Nominal distance uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2028-May-07 03:32 ± 4 minutes Script error: No such module "val".[2] ± Script error: No such module "val". km[5]
2030-Sep-22 22:36 ± 10 hours Script error: No such module "val".[2] ± Script error: No such module "val". km[6]

Possible impacts with Earth

Until December 2004, it was considered to have the highest (though still very low) likelihood of any near-Earth object to impact Earth in the next 100 years. It is ranked a zero on the Torino scale of impact risk because of its small size (the scale is 0–10) and is listed on Sentry Risk Table.[1][7] It was briefly surpassed in December 2004 by 99942 Apophis (which at the time was known only by its provisional designation Template:Mp). Smaller asteroids such as Template:Mpl and Template:Mpl have a greater chance of impacting Earth.

Based on 31 observations of Template:Mp made from May 1999 to October 2000, there is about a 1 in 360 chance that it will collide with Earth between 2069 and 2121.[1] The greatest chance of impact is on 16 September 2071 with a 1 in 1000 chance of impact. Assuming the object is a rocky asteroid and that it reaches Earth's surface without exploding in the atmosphere, the impact energy released would be an estimated 1.0 megatons of TNT, comparable to the Tunguska and Chelyabinsk events, which could create an impact crater approximately Script error: No such module "convert". wide.

Virtual impactors[1]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2069-09-18 5 million Script error: No such module "convert". Script error: No such module "convert".[8] ± 32 million km[9]
2070-09-17 4300 Script error: No such module "convert". Script error: No such module "convert". ± 275 million km
2071-09-10 7100 Script error: No such module "convert". Script error: No such module "convert". ± 462 million km
2071-09-16 1000 Script error: No such module "convert". Script error: No such module "convert". ± 475 million km

Proposed NASA mission

In 2008, NASA considered this asteroid as a possible target for a crewed mission (Artemis 2) using the Orion spacecraft, prior to a projected 2030 push to Mars.[10][11] Those plans were since abandoned. Template:Mp will be observable in May 2028 at an apparent magnitude of 19.[12]

References

  1. ↑ a b c d Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  2. ↑ a b c Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  3. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  4. ↑ Script error: No such module "Citation/CS1".
  5. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  6. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  7. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  8. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  9. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1". RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#17/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-14 generates RNG_3sigma = Script error: No such module "val". for 2069-09-18 11:46.)
  10. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
  11. ↑ Into the Beyond: A Crewed Mission to a Near-Earth Object – text slides
  12. ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".

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Further reading

  • Script error: No such module "Citation/CS1".
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External links

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