1998 Philippine presidential election

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Template:Short description Script error: No such module "infobox".Script error: No such module "Check for unknown parameters". Script error: No such module "Sidebar". The 1998 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections were held on May 11, 1998. In the presidential election, Vice President Joseph Estrada won a six-year term as President by a landslide victory. In the vice-presidential race, Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo won a six-year term as Vice President, also by a landslide victory. This was the third election where both the president and vice president came from different parties.

Background

At the tail-end of the presidency of Fidel V. Ramos, several politicians began jockeying for the nomination of his Lakas–NUCD–UMDP party. This included House Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., National Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, and Cebu Governor Lito Osmeña.

The Lakas nominee was widely expected to face Vice President Joseph Estrada, who had been leading candidate in various opinion polls. Estrada had earlier declared in 1992 that he would not run for president, stating his intention to retire upon reaching the age of 60 in 1998,[1] but he later recanted this decision.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who believed she had been cheated out of the presidency by Ramos in 1992, was also expected to run again.

Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was likewise seen as a potential presidential contender. She banked on the support of loyalists of her husband, deposed president Ferdinand Marcos.

Senator Leticia Ramos-Shahani initially launched her presidential campaign on July 6, 1997, in Pasig City with Lito Osmeña as her running mate.[2][3] However, she eventually decided to withdraw from the race and instead run for governor of Pangasinan.[4]

Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had topped the 1995 Senate election, was also considered a strong presidential contender, founding Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino with Tito Sotto, who himself topped the 1992 Senate election, widely seen as her likely running mate.

Senator Raul Roco, who had built a noteworthy Senate career by this point, gained strong backing from the youth through his own party, Aksyon Demokratiko.

The Lakas convention ultimately nominated de Venecia, Ramos' handpicked successor, for president. This led de Villa and Osmeña to bolt from Lakas and set up their own parties. De Venecia picked Arroyo as his vice presidential running mate.

The Liberal Party nominated Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim for president. Meanwhile, the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, Nationalist People's Coalition and Estrada's own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (the forerunner of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) established an electoral alliance known as Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino. Estrada chose Senator Edgardo Angara of LDP as his running mate.

Weeks before election day, Marcos withdrew from the race. Estrada had widened his lead over the other candidates by this point.

Candidates

Presidential candidate Position Party Vice presidential candidate Position Party
Jose de Venecia Jr. Speaker of the House of Representatives colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Lakas–NUCD–UMDP Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Lakas–NUCD–UMDP
Renato de Villa Former Secretary of National Defense (1991–1997) colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma Oscar Orbos Governor of Pangasinan colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma
Miriam Defensor Santiago Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| People's Reform Party Francisco Tatad Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| People's Reform Party
Santiago Dumlao None Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago Reynaldo Pacheco None Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago
Joseph Estrada Vice President colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino Edgardo Angara Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino
Alfredo Lim Mayor of Manila colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Liberal Party Serge Osmeña Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Liberal Party
Manuel Morato Chairperson of the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office Partido Bansang Marangal Camilo Sabio Secretary-General of the House of Representatives Partido Bansang Marangal
Lito Osmeña Former Chief Presidential Economic Adviser (1993–1997) colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Probinsya Muna Development Initiative Ismael Sueno Former Assembly Member of the Southern Philippine Council for Peace and Development (1997–1998) colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Probinsya Muna Development Initiative
Juan Ponce Enrile Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Independent None
Raul Roco Senator colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Aksyon Demokratiko Irene Santiago None colspan=1 bgcolor=Template:Party color| Aksyon Demokratiko

Lakas nomination

There were four candidates who sought the nomination of Lakas–NUCD: Jose de Venecia, Renato de Villa, Lito Osmeña, and Bulacan Governor Roberto Pagdanganan. De Villa was confident he would be selected by the party, as he, like President Ramos, was a former constabulary general. However, during the official Lakas party meeting, the presidential nomination was awarded to de Venecia. Following this, de Villa bolted from the party and formed Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma, while Osmeña established Probinsya Muna Development Initiative.[5]

Opinion polling

Opinion polling, commonly known as "surveys" in the Philippines were administered primarily by Social Weather Stations in 1998.

The tables below graph the last three surveys conducted.

For president

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Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Margin of error de Venecia de Villa Defensor Santiago Dumlao Estrada Lim Marcos Morato Osmeña Ponce Enrile Roco Undecided
SWS Apr 8–16[6] 1,500 ±3% 12 5 4 0.3

30

13 2 0.2 13 2 10 9
Mar 16–21[7] 1,500 ±3% 14 5 7 0.4

28

14 2 1 9 2 11 7
Feb 21–27[8] 1,500 ±3% 12 6 5 0.1

28

14 2.3 0.6 13 0.9 9 10

For vice president

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Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Margin of error Angara Macapagal Arroyo Orbos Osmeña Pacheco Sabio Santiago Sueño Tatad Undecided
SWS Apr 8–16[6] 1,500 ±3% 16

45

8 14 0.1 0.3 0.9 3 2 9
Mar 16–21[7] 1,500 ±3% 12

47

6 18 0.2 0.5 1 2 4 7
Feb 21–27[8] 1,500 ±3% 13

44

5 14 0.1 0.2 2 2 2 10

Results

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". The 10th Congress canvassed the votes in joint session for a number of days before declaring Estrada and Arroyo as the winners; with Senate President Neptali Gonzales and Speaker De Venecia announcing the victors.

While the official canvassing did not start a fortnight after Election Day, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) held a parallel and unofficial quick count which was released days after the election and was updated at irregular intervals. NAMFREL based their tally from the seventh copy of the election returns given to them.

In theory, the totals for the official canvassing (derived from the certificates of canvass, which are then derived from the election returns) and the completed NAMFREL quick count should be equal.

For president

Estrada carried the majority of the provinces, his hometown of San Juan City, and Metro Manila.

De Venecia carried his home province of Pangasinan as well as Siquijor, Roco carried his home province of Camarines Sur and the rest of the Bicol Region (excluding Masbate), and Osmeña got his foothold over his home province of Cebu and other provinces in the South.

Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as De Villa of Batangas, Enrile of Cagayan, and Defensor Santiago of Iloilo Province, as well as the neighboring province of Guimaras. Lim was the only major candidate who did not carry any provinces (with the exception of Batanes) and failed to capture his hometown of Manila. Template:Philippine presidential election, 1998

Popular vote
Estrada
 
 39.86%
De Venecia
 
 15.87%
Roco
 
 13.83%
Osmeña
 
 12.44%
Lim
 
 8.71%
De Villa
 
 4.86%
Others
 
 4.43%

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Manuel Morato had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than in the official congressional canvass.

NAMFREL quick count result (79.25% of precincts)[9]
Candidate Party Results
Votes % Diff*
Joseph Estrada
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8,239,823 39.47% −0.39%
Jose de Venecia
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3,247,067 15.55% −0.32%
Raul Roco
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2,923,842 14.00% 0.17%
Emilio Osmeña
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2,454,432 11.76% −0.68%
Alfredo Lim
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1,815,664 8.70% −0.01%
Renato de Villa
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1,028,854 4.93% 0.07%
Miriam Defensor Santiago
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584,633 2.80% −0.16%
Juan Ponce Enrile
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297,801 1.43% 0.15%
Imelda Marcos (withdrew)
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232,714 1.11% N/A
Santiago Dumlao Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago 29,327 0.14% 0.02%
Manuel Morato Partido Bansang Marangal 23,208 0.07% 0.04%
Votes 20,877,365 100.00% —

*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics

1998 presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Estrada de Venecia Roco Osmeña Template:Party shading/Independent |Other % of
total vote
Total vote 39 16 13 12 20 100
NCR 33 11 28 4 24 9
CAR 47 24 12 0 17 5
Region I - Ilocos 33 61 2 0 4 6
Region II - Cagayan 44 13 4 1 38 5
Region III - Central Luzon 50 15 17 1 17 7
Region IV - Southern Tagalog 45 10 12 1 32 12
Region V - Bicol 14 8 75 0 3 5
Region VI - Western Visayas 40 12 3 9 36 9
Region VII - Central Visayas 20 12 5 52 11 7
Region VIII - Eastern Visayas 48 18 1 23 10 4
Region IX - Western Mindanao 39 19 4 20 18 6
Region X - Northern Mindanao 33 20 3 31 13 5
Region XI - Southern Mindanao 44 12 3 30 11 8
Region XII - Central Mindanao 52 18 3 15 12 6
ARMM 63 25 1 2 9 6

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.3%)[10]

For vice-president

Arroyo also carried most of the provinces including her home province of Pampanga. Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Angara of Aurora, and Quezon being mother province, Orbos of Pangasinan, Tatad of Catanduanes and Sueno of South Cotabato.

Only Osmeña of Cebu failed to capture the votes of their home provinces.

Template:Philippine vice presidential election, 1998

Popular vote
Arroyo
 
 49.56%
Angara
 
 22.11%
Orbos
 
 13.00%
Osmeña
 
 9.20%
Others
 
 6.13%

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Reynaldo Pacheco had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than the official congressional canvass.

NAMFREL quick count result (79.25% of precincts)[9]
Candidate Party Results
Votes % Diff*
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
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9,624,397 48.85% −0.71%
Edgardo Angara
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4,380,991 22.24% 0.13
Oscar Orbos
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2,651,184 13.46% 0.46
Sergio Osmeña III
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1,183,998 9.21% 0.01
Francisco Tatad
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582,548 2.96% 0.05
Ismael Sueno
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409,966 2.08% −0.02
Irene Santiago
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196,386 1.00% 0.07
Reynaldo Pacheco Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago 23,107 0.12% 0.04
Camilo Sabio Partido Bansang Marangal 19,555 0.10% 0.01
Votes 19,702,132 100.00% —

*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics

1998 vice presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Arroyo Angara Orbos Template:Party shading/Liberal Party (Philippines) | Osmeña Template:Party shading/Independent | Other % of
total vote
Total vote 50 21 12 10 7 100
NCR 32 21 33 12 2 9
CAR 60 19 17 3 1 5
Region I - Ilocos 53 15 30 1 1 6
Region II - Cagayan 62 26 10 2 0 5
Region III - Central Luzon 66 16 11 6 1 7
Region IV - Southern Tagalog 45 29 17 7 2 12
Region V - Bicol 48 14 4 5 29 5
Region VI - Western Visayas 46 28 4 15 7 9
Region VII - Central Visayas 45 17 2 25 11 7
Region VIII - Eastern Visayas 67 18 1 13 1 4
Region IX - Western Mindanao 59 18 5 15 3 6
Region X - Northern Mindanao 58 21 3 16 2 5
Region XI - Southern Mindanao 50 20 5 13 12 8
Region XII - Central Mindanao 56 21 3 9 11 6
ARMM 58 30 6 4 2 6

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.4%)[11]

See also

Notes

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References

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External links

Template:Philippine presidential elections Script error: No such module "navbox".

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