1991 BA
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1991 BA is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group that was first observed by Spacewatch on 18 January 1991, and passed within Script error: No such module "convert". of Earth.[1][2] This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. With a 5-hour observation arc the asteroid has a poorly constrained orbit and is considered lost. It could be a member of the Beta Taurids.[3]
Description
1991 BA is approximately Script error: No such module "convert". in diameter and is listed on the Sentry Risk Table.[4] It follows a highly eccentric (0.68), low-inclination (2.0°) orbit of 3.3 years duration, ranging between 0.71 and 3.7 AU from the Sun. 1991 BA was, at the time of its discovery, the smallest and closest confirmed asteroid outside of Earth's atmosphere.[5] 1991 BA is too faint to be observed except during close approaches to Earth and is considered lost.
Possible impact
The asteroid has a very short 5-hour observation arc that makes future predictions of its position unreliable. Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory use to show a 1 in 290,000 chance that the asteroid could impact Earth on 2023 January 18.[4] It is estimated that an impact would produce an upper atmosphere air burst equivalent to 16 kt TNT,[4] roughly equal to Nagasaki's Fat Man. The asteroid would appear as a bright fireball and fragment in the air burst into smaller pieces that would hit the ground at terminal velocity producing a meteorite strewn field. Impacts of objects this size are estimated to occur approximately once a year.[6] Asteroid Template:Mpl was an object of similar size that was discovered less than a day before its impact on Earth on October 7, 2008, and produced a fireball and meteorite strewn field in the Sudan. The 18 January 2023 virtual impactor did not occur.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC[7] nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-18 | Script error: No such module "val". | Script error: No such module "convert".[8] | Script error: No such module "convert".[9] | Script error: No such module "convert". | Script error: No such module "convert".[10] | ± 841 million km[8] |
There is a 1 in a million chance of impacting Earth on 19 January 2114.[4]
References
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- ↑ Peter Jenniskens Meteor Showers and their Parent Comets pg 463 fig 25.7
- ↑ a b c d e Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
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- ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
- ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
- ↑ a b Script error: No such module "citation/CS1". RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#12/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = Script error: No such module "val". for 2023-Jan-18.)
- ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
- ↑ Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
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External links
- IAUC 5172: 1991 BA; 4U 0115+63; 1990c – (Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams 1991 January 21)
- Template:NeoDys
- Template:ESA-SSA
- Template:PAGENAMEBASE at the JPL Small-Body DatabaseTemplate:EditAtWikidata
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