(29075) 1950 DA

Template:Short description Template:Use dmy dates Template:Mp (provisional designation Template:Mp) is a risk-listed asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately Template:Convert in diameter. It once had the highest known probability of impacting Earth. In 2002, it had the highest Palermo scale rating with a value of 0.17 and a probability of 1 in 306 (0.33%) for a possible collision in 2880. Since that time, the estimated risk has been updated several times. In December 2015, the odds of an Earth impact were revised to 1 in 8,300 (0.012%) with a Palermo scale rating of −1.42. Template:As of, it is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with the highest cumulative Palermo scale rating of −0.93. Template:Mp is not assigned a Torino scale rating, because the 2880 date is over 100 years in the future. As of 11 September 2025, the odds of an Earth impact are 1 in 2,600 (0.038%).

Discovery and nomenclature

Template:Mp was first discovered on 23 February 1950 by Carl A. Wirtanen at Lick Observatory. It was observed for seventeen days and then lost because this short observation arc resulted in large uncertainties in Wirtanen's orbital solution. On 31 December 2000, it was recovered at Lowell Observatory and was announced as Template:Mp on 4 January 2001. Just two hours later it was recognized as Template:Mp.

Observations

On 5 March 2001, Template:Mp made a close approach to Earth at a distance of Template:Convert. It was studied by radar at the Goldstone and Arecibo observatories from March 3 to 7, 2001.

The studies showed that the asteroid has a mean diameter of 1.1 km, assuming that Template:Mp is a retrograde rotator. Optical lightcurve analysis by Lenka Šarounová and Petr Pravec shows that its rotation period is Template:Val hours. Due to its short rotation period and high radar albedo, Template:Mp is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.5 g/cm³, assuming that it has no internal strength) and likely composed of nickel–iron. In August 2014, scientists from the University of Tennessee determined that Template:Mp is a rubble pile rotating faster than the breakup limit for its density, implying the asteroid is held together by van der Waals forces rather than gravity.

Template:Mp made distant approaches to Earth on 20 May 2012, 5 February 2021 and 5 February 2023. However, at these times it was a quarter to half an AU away from Earth, preventing more useful astrometrics and timing that occurs when an object is closer to Earth. The next close approach that presents a good opportunity to observe the asteroid will be on 2 March 2032, when it will be Template:Convert from Earth. The following table lists the approaches closer than 0.1 AU until the year 2500. By 2136 the close approach solutions are becoming notably more divergent.

Position uncertainty and increasing divergence

Date	JPL SBDB nominal geocentric distance (AU)	uncertainty region (1-sigma)
2 March 2032	Template:Convert	±10 km
19 March 2074	Template:Convert	±30 km
10 March 2105	Template:Convert	±43 km
11 March 2136	Template:Convert	±387 km
8 March 2187	Template:Convert	±1717 km
20 March 2218	Template:Convert	±8712 km
18 March 2373	Template:Convert	±2508 km
6 March 2455	Template:Convert	±1650 km

Impact probability at different times

Date	JPL Solution	Impact probability
5 April 2002		1/306
7 December 2015		1/8300
29 March 2022		1/34000
18 June 2024		1/2600
23 January 2025	JPL276	1/2600

Possible Earth impact

Template:Mp has one of the best-determined asteroid orbital solutions. This is due to a combination of:

• an orbit moderately inclined (12 degrees) to the ecliptic plane (reducing in-plane perturbations);
• high-precision radar astrometry, which provides its distance and is complementary to the measurements of angular positions;
• a 74-year observation arc;
• an uncertainty region controlled by resonance.

Main-belt asteroid 78 Diana (~125 km in diameter) will pass about Template:Convert from Template:Mp on 5 August 2150. At that distance and size, Diana will perturb Template:Mp enough so that the change in trajectory is notable by 2880 (730 years later). In addition, over the intervening time, Template:Mp's rotation will cause its orbit to slightly change as a result of the Yarkovsky effect. If Template:Mp continues on its present orbit, it may approach Earth on 16 March 2880, though the mean trajectory passes many millions of kilometres from Earth, so Template:Mp does not have a significant chance of impacting Earth. Template:As of, according to the latest solution dated 11 September 2025, the probability of an impact in 2880 is 1 in 2,600 (0.038%).

The energy released by a collision with an object the size of Template:Mp would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere, which would be devastating to human civilization. The discovery of the potential impact heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies.

See also

• Template:Section link
• Asteroid impact prediction
• Earth-grazing fireball
• List of asteroid close approaches to Earth

External links

• MPEC 2001-A26 : 1950 DA = 2000 YK66 (K00Y66K). MPC 4 January 2001
• 3D model Rotating model of the asteroid (preferred rotation model is retrograde, NeoDys)
• Asteroid Lightcurve Database (LCDB), query form (info Template:Webarchive)
• Asteroids and comets rotation curves, CdRTemplate:Snd Observatoire de Genève, Raoul Behrend
• Discovery Circumstances: Numbered Minor Planets (25001)-(30000)Template:Snd Minor Planet Center
• Template:NeoDys
• Template:JPL small body