Pandemic: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 19:52, 30 September 2025

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Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, convention centers (pictured here) were deemed to be ideal sites for temporary hospitals, due to their existing infrastructure (electrical, water, sewage).^[1] Hotels and dormitories were also considered appropriate because they can use negative pressure technology.^[1]

A pandemic (Template:IPAc-en Template:Respell) is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial portion of the human population. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

Throughout human history, there have been a number of pandemics of diseases such as smallpox. The Black Death, caused by the Plague, caused the deaths of up to half of the population of Europe in the 14th century.^[2]^[3]^[4]^[5] The term pandemic had not been used then, but was used for later epidemics, including the 1918 H1N1 influenza A pandemic—more commonly known as the Spanish flu—which is the deadliest pandemic in history.^[6]^[7]^[8] The most recent pandemics include the HIV/AIDS pandemic,Template:Efn^[9] the 2009 swine flu pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic. Almost all these diseases still circulate among humans though their impact now is often far less.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, 194 member states of the World Health Organization began negotiations on an International Treaty on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response, with a requirement to submit a draft of this treaty to the 77th World Health Assembly during its 2024 convention.^[10]^[11] Further, on 6 May 2024, the White House released an official policy to more safely manage medical research projects involving potentially hazardous pathogens, including viruses and bacteria, that may pose a risk of a pandemic.^[12]^[13] Template:TOC limit

Definition

Template:Multiple image The word comes from the Greek Script error: No such module "Lang". Script error: No such module "Lang". meaning Template:Gloss, and Script error: No such module "Lang". Script error: No such module "Lang". Template:Gloss, hence "common to all the people" cf. Aphrodite Pandemos. The term survives until today in Modern Greek with the meaning "all-people's" or "concerning all the people" i.e. "a pandemic assembly".

A medical dictionary definition of pandemic is "an epidemic occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale".^[14] A disease or condition is not a pandemic merely because it is widespread or kills many people; it must also be infectious. For instance, cancer is responsible for many deaths but is not considered a pandemic because the disease is not contagious—i.e. easily transmissible—and not even simply infectious.^[15] This definition differs from colloquial usage in that it encompasses outbreaks of relatively mild diseases.^[16]^[17]

The World Health Organization (WHO) has a category of Public Health Emergency of International Concern, defined as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response".^[18] There is a rigorous process underlying this categorization and a clearly defined trajectory of responses.^[19]

A WHO-sponsored international body, tasked with preparing an international agreement on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response has defined a pandemic as "the global spread of a pathogen or variant that infects human populations with limited or no immunity through sustained and high transmissibility from person to person, overwhelming health systems with severe morbidity and high mortality, and causing social and economic disruptions, all of which require effective national and global collaboration and coordination for its control".^[20]

Parameters

A common early characteristic of a pandemic is a rapid, sometimes exponential, growth in the number of infections, coupled with a widening geographical spread.^[21]

WHO utilises different criteria to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), its nearest equivalent to the term pandemic.^[22] The potential consequences of an incident are considered, rather than its current status.^[23] For example, polio was declared a PHEIC in 2014 even though only 482 cases were reported globally in the previous year;^[24] this was justified by concerns that polio might break out of its endemic areas and again become a significant health threat globally.^[25] The PHEIC status of polio is reviewed regularly and is ongoing, despite the small number of cases annually.Template:Efn^[26]

The end of a pandemic is more difficult to delineate. Generally, past epidemics and pandemics have faded out as the diseases become accepted into people's daily lives and routines, becoming endemic.^[27] The transition from pandemic to endemic may be defined based on:

a high proportion of the global population having immunity (through either natural infection or vaccination)
fewer deaths
health systems step down from emergency status
perceived personal risk is lessened
restrictive measures such as travel restrictions removed
less coverage in public media.^[28]^[29]

An endemic disease is always present in a population, but at a relatively low and predictable level. There may be periodic spikes of infections or seasonality, (e.g. influenza) but generally the burden on health systems is manageable.^[28]

Prevention and preparedness

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File:Pandemic prevention infographic.png

Infographic illustrating the benefits of a treaty for pandemic prevention

Pandemic prevention comprises activities such as anticipatory research and development of therapies and vaccines, as well as monitoring for pathogens and disease outbreaks which may have pandemic potential.^[30] Routine vaccination programs are a type of prevention strategy, holding back diseases such as influenza and polio which have caused pandemics in the past, and could do so again if not controlled.^[31] Prevention overlaps with preparedness which aims to curtail an outbreak and prevent it getting out of control - it involves strategic planning, data collection and modelling to measure the spread, stockpiling of therapies, vaccines, and medical equipment, as well as public health awareness campaigning.^[32] By definition, a pandemic involves many countries so international cooperation, data sharing, and collaboration are essential; as is universal access to tests and therapies.^[30]

Collaboration – In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO established a Pandemic Hub in September 2021 in Berlin, aiming to address weaknesses around the world in how countries detect, monitor and manage public health threats. The Hub's initiatives include using artificial intelligence to analyse more than 35,000 data feeds for indications of emerging health threats, as well as improving facilities and coordination between academic institutions and WHO member countries.^[33]

Detection – In May 2023, WHO launched the International Pathogen Surveillance Network (IPSN) (hosted by the Pandemic Hub) aiming to detect and respond to disease threats before they become epidemics and pandemics, and to optimize routine disease surveillance. The network provides a platform to connect countries, improving systems for collecting and analysing samples of potentially harmful pathogens.^[34] Wastewater surveillance can for example provide early warnings by detecting pathogens in sewage.^[35]

Therapies and vaccines – The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) is developing a program as part of their 2022–2026 pandemic plan to condense new vaccine development timelines to 100 days, less than a third of the time it took to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.^[36]^[37] In the US, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) has developed a Pandemic Preparedness Plan which focuses on identifying viruses of concern and developing diagnostics and therapies (including prototype vaccines) to combat them.^[38]^[39]

Modeling is important to inform policy decisions. It helps to predict the burden of disease on healthcare facilities, the effectiveness of control measures, projected geographical spread, and timing and extent of future pandemic waves.^[40]

Public awareness involves disseminating reliable information, ensuring consistency in message, transparency, and steps to discredit misinformation.^[41]

Air quality – Enhanced indoor ventilation and air filtration systems are also effective at reducing transmission of airborne pathogens, while providing additional health benefits beyond pandemic control.^[42]

Stockpiling involves maintaining strategic stockpiles of emergency supplies such as personal protective equipment, drugs and vaccines, and equipment such as respirators. Many of these items have limited shelf life, so they require stock rotation even though they may be rarely used.^[43]

Ethical and political issues

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted a number of ethical and political issues which must be considered during a pandemic. These included decisions about who should be prioritised for treatment while resources are scarce; whether or not to make vaccination compulsory; the timing and extent of constraints on individual liberty, how to sanction individuals who do not comply with emergency regulations, and the extent of international collaboration and resource sharing.^[44]^[45]

Pandemic management strategies

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Social distancing in public

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The basic strategies in the control of an outbreak are containment and mitigation. Containment may be undertaken in the early stages of the outbreak, including contact tracing and isolating infected individuals to stop the disease from spreading to the rest of the population, other public health interventions on infection control, and therapeutic countermeasures such as vaccinations which may be effective if available.^[46] When it becomes apparent that it is no longer possible to contain the spread of the disease, management will then move on to the mitigation stage, in which measures are taken to slow the spread of the disease and mitigate its effects on society and the healthcare system. In reality, containment and mitigation measures may be undertaken simultaneously.^[47]

A key part of managing an infectious disease outbreak is trying to decrease the epidemic peak, known as "flattening the curve".^[48]^[49] This helps decrease the risk of health services being overwhelmed and provides more time for a vaccine and treatment to be developed.^[48]^[49] A broad group of non-pharmaceutical interventions may be taken to manage the outbreak.^[49] In a flu pandemic, these actions may include personal preventive measures such as hand hygiene, wearing face-masks, and self-quarantine; community measures aimed at social distancing such as closing schools and canceling mass gatherings; community engagement to encourage acceptance and participation in such interventions; and environmental measures such as cleaning of surfaces.^[50]

Another strategy, suppression, requires more extreme long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions to reverse the pandemic by reducing the basic reproduction number to less thanTemplate:Nbsp1. The suppression strategy, which includes stringent population-wide social distancing, home isolation of cases, and household quarantine, was undertaken by China during the COVID-19 pandemic where entire cities were placed under lockdown; such a strategy may carry with it considerable social and economic costs.^[51]

Frameworks for influenza pandemics

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WHO system

For a novel influenza virus, WHO previously applied a six-stage classification to delineate the process by which the virus moves from the first few infections in humans through to a pandemic. Starting with phase 1 (infections identified in animals only), it moves through phases of increasing infection and spread to phase 6 (pandemic).^[52] In February 2020, a WHO spokesperson clarified that the system is no longer in use.^[53]

CDC Frameworks

File:Pandemic Intervals Framework Influenza Intervals.jpg

Influenza intervals in the CDC's Pandemic Intervals Framework

In 2014, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) introduced a framework for characterising the progress of an influenza pandemic titled the Pandemic Intervals Framework.^[54] The six intervals of the framework are as follows:

investigation of cases of novel influenza,
recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission,
initiation of a pandemic wave,
acceleration of a pandemic wave,
deceleration of a pandemic wave, and
preparation for future pandemic waves.

At the same time, the CDC adopted the Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework (PSAF) to assess the severity of influenza pandemics.^[54] The PSAF rates the severity of an influenza outbreak on two dimensions: clinical severity of illness in infected persons; and the transmissibility of the infection in the population.^[55] This tool was not applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.^[56]

Notable pandemics and outbreaks

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Recent outbreaks

COVID-19

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Total confirmed cases of COVID-19 per million people^[57]

SARS-CoV-2, a new strain of coronavirus, was first detected in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019.^[58] The outbreak was characterized as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) between January 2020 and May 2023 by WHO.^[59]^[60] The number of people infected with COVID-19 has reached more than 767 million worldwide, with a death toll of 6.9 million.Template:Efn^[61] It is considered likely that the virus will eventually become endemic and, like the common cold, cause less severe disease for most people.^[62]

HIV/AIDS

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A world map illustrating the proportion of population infected with HIV in 2023

HIV/AIDS was first identified as a disease in 1981, and is an ongoing worldwide public health issue.^[63]^[64] Since then, HIV/AIDS has killed an estimated 40 million people with a further 630,000 deaths annually; 39 million people are currently living with HIV infection.Template:Efn^[63] HIV has a zoonotic origin, having originated in nonhuman primates in Central Africa and transferred to humans in the early 20th century.^[65] The most frequent mode of transmission of HIV is through sexual contact with an infected person. There may be a short period of mild, nonspecific symptoms followed by an asymptomatic (but nevertheless infectious) stage called clinical latency – without treatment, this stage can last between 3 and 20 years. The only way to detect infection is by means of a HIV test.^[66] There is no vaccine to prevent HIV infection, but the disease can be held in check by means of antiretroviral therapy.^[67]

Pandemics in history

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote".Historical accounts of epidemics are often vague or contradictory in describing how victims were affected. A rash accompanied by a fever might be smallpox, measles, scarlet fever, or varicella, and it is possible that epidemics overlapped, with multiple infections striking the same population at once. It is often impossible to know the exact causes of mortality, although ancient DNA studies can sometimes detect residues of certain pathogens.^[68]

File:The Triumph of Death P001393.jpg

Pieter Bruegel's The Triumph of Death (Template:Circa) reflects the social upheaval and terror that followed the plague, which devastated medieval Europe.

File:1918 Headlines from Chicago newspapers - Spanish flu - 1918 influenza pandemic.jpg

1918 Chicago newspaper headlines reflect mitigation strategies for the Spanish flu, such as increased ventilation, arrests for "open-face sneezes and coughs", sequenced inoculations, limitations on crowd size, selective closing of businesses, curfews, and lockdowns.^[69]

It is assumed that, prior to the Neolithic Revolution around 10,000 BC, disease outbreaks were limited to a single family or clan, and did not spread widely before dying out. The domestication of animals increased human-animal contact, increasing the possibility of zoonotic infections. The advent of agriculture, and trade between settled groups, made it possible for pathogens to spread widely. As the population increased, contact between groups became more frequent. A history of epidemics maintained by the Chinese Empire from 243 B.C. to 1911 A.C. shows an approximate correlation between the frequency of epidemics and the growth of the population.^[70]

Here is an incomplete list of known epidemics which have spread widely enough to merit the title "pandemic".

Plague of Athens (430 to 426 BC): During the Peloponnesian War, an epidemic killed a quarter of the Athenian troops and a quarter of the population. This disease fatally weakened the dominance of Athens, but the sheer virulence of the disease prevented its wider spread; i.e., it killed off its hosts at a rate faster than they could spread it. The exact cause of the plague was unknown for many years. In January 2006, researchers from the University of Athens analyzed teeth recovered from a mass grave underneath the city and confirmed the presence of bacteria responsible for typhoid fever.^[71]
Antonine Plague (165 to 180 AD): Possibly measles or smallpox brought to the Italian peninsula by soldiers returning from the Near East, it killed a quarter of those infected, up to five million in total.^[72]
Plague of Cyprian (251–266 AD): A second outbreak of what may have been the same disease as the Antonine Plague killed (it was said) 5,000 people a day in Rome.^[73]
Plague of Justinian (541 to 549 AD): Also known as the First Plague Pandemic. This epidemic started in Egypt and reached Constantinople the following spring, killing (according to the Byzantine chronicler Procopius) 10,000 a day at its height, and perhaps 40% of the city's inhabitants. The plague went on to eliminate a quarter to half the human population of the known world and was identified in 2013 as being caused by bubonic plague.^[74]^[75]
Black Death (1331 to 1353): Also known as the Second Plague Pandemic. The total number of deaths worldwide is estimated at 75 to 200 million. Starting in Asia, the disease reached the Mediterranean and western Europe in 1348 (possibly from Italian merchants fleeing fighting in Crimea) and killed an estimated 20 to 30 million Europeans in six years;^[76] a third of the total population,^[77] and up to a half in the worst-affected urban areas.^[78] It was the first of a cycle of European plague epidemics that continued until the 18th century;^[79] there were more than 100 plague epidemics in Europe during this period,^[80] including the Great Plague of London of 1665–66 which killed approximately 100,000 people, 20% of London's population.^[81]
1817–1824 cholera pandemic. Previously endemic in the Indian subcontinent, the pandemic began in Bengal, then spread across India by 1820. The deaths of 10,000 British troops were documented - it is assumed that tens of thousands of Indians must have died.^[82] The disease spread as far as China, Indonesia (where more than 100,000 people succumbed on the island of Java alone)^[83] and the Caspian Sea before receding. Subsequent cholera pandemics during the 19th century are estimated to have caused many millions of deaths globally.^[84]^[85]
File:Chevalier Roze à la Tourette - 1720.PNG
Great Plague of Marseille in 1720 killed a total of 100,000 people
Third plague pandemic (1855–1960): Starting in China, it is estimated to have caused over 12 million deaths in total, the majority of them in India.^[86]^[87] During this pandemic, the United States saw its first outbreak: the San Francisco plague of 1900–1904.^[88] The causative bacterium, Yersinia pestis, was identified in 1894.^[89] The association with fleas, and in particular rat fleas in urban environments, led to effective control measures. The pandemic was considered to be over in 1959 when annual deaths due to plague dropped below 200. The disease is nevertheless present in the rat population worldwide and isolated human cases still occur.^[90]
The 1918–1920 Spanish flu infected half a billion people^[91] around the world, including on remote Pacific islands and in the Arctic—killing 20 to 100 million.^[91]^[92] Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, but the 1918 pandemic had an unusually high mortality rate for young adults.^[93] It killed more people in 25 weeks than AIDS did in its first 25 years.^[94]^[95] Mass troop movements and close quarters during World WarTemplate:NbspI caused it to spread and mutate faster, and the susceptibility of soldiers to the flu may have been increased by stress, malnourishment and chemical attacks.^[96] Improved transportation systems made it easier for soldiers, sailors and civilian travelers to spread the disease.^[97]

Pandemics in indigenous populations

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Aztecs dying of smallpox, Florentine Codex (compiled 1540–1585)

Beginning from the Middle Ages, encounters between European settlers and native populations in the rest of the world often introduced epidemics of extraordinary virulence. Settlers introduced novel diseases which were endemic in Europe, such as smallpox, measles, pertussis and influenza, to which the indigenous peoples had no immunity.^[98]^[99] The Europeans infected with such diseases typically carried them in a dormant state, were actively infected but asymptomatic, or had only mild symptoms.^[100]

Smallpox was the most destructive disease that was brought by Europeans to the Native Americans, both in terms of morbidity and mortality. The first well-documented smallpox epidemic in the Americas began in Hispaniola in late 1518 and soon spread to Mexico.^[100] Estimates of mortality range from one-quarter to one-half of the population of central Mexico.^[101] It is estimated that over the 100 years after European arrival in 1492, the indigenous population of the Americas dropped from 60 million to only 6 million, due to a combination of disease, war, and famine. The majority these deaths are attributed to successive waves of introduced diseases such as smallpox, measles, and typhoid fever.^[102]^[103]^[104]

In Australia, smallpox was introduced by European settlers in 1789 devastating the Australian Aboriginal population, killing an estimated 50% of those infected with the disease during the first decades of colonisation.^[105] In the early 1800s, measles, smallpox and intertribal warfare killed an estimated 20,000 New Zealand Māori.^[106]

In 1848–49, as many as 40,000 out of 150,000 Hawaiians are estimated to have died of measles, whooping cough and influenza. Measles killed more than 40,000 Fijians, approximately one-third of the population, in 1875,^[107] and in the early 19th century devastated the Great Andamanese population.^[108] In Hokkaido, an epidemic of smallpox introduced by Japanese settlers is estimated to have killed 34% of the native Ainu population in 1845.^[109]

Concerns about future pandemics

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For example, influenza is a rapidly evolving disease which has caused pandemics in the past and has the potential to cause future pandemics. WHO collates the findings of 144 national influenza centres worldwide which monitor emerging flu viruses. Virus variants which are assessed as likely to represent a significant risk are identified and can then be incorporated into the next seasonal influenza vaccine program.^[110]

In a press conference on 28 December 2020, Mike Ryan, head of the WHO Emergencies Program, and other officials said the current COVID-19 pandemic was "not necessarily the big one" and "the next pandemic may be more severe." They called for preparation.^[111] WHO and the UN have warned the world must tackle the cause of pandemics and not just the health and economic symptoms.^[112]

Diseases with pandemic potential

Script error: No such module "labelled list hatnote".There is always a possibility that a disease which has caused epidemics in the past may return in the future.^[70] It is also possible that little known diseases may become more virulent; in order to encourage research, a number of organisations which monitor global health have drawn up lists of diseases which may have pandemic potential; see table below.Template:Efn

List of potential pandemic diseases according to global health organisations
	WHO^[113]	CEPI^[114]	GAVI^[115]
Chikungunya		Yes
COVID-19	Yes
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever	Yes		Yes
Ebola virus disease	Yes	Yes	Yes
Lassa fever	Yes	Yes	Yes
Marburg virus disease	Yes		Yes
Mpox			Yes
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)	Yes		Yes
Nipah and other henipaviral diseases	Yes	Yes	Yes
Rift Valley fever	Yes	Yes	Yes
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)	Yes	Yes	Yes
Zika	Yes		Yes
Disease X Template:Efn	Yes	Yes

Coronaviruses

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A generic coronavirus illustration

Coronavirus diseases are a family of usually mild illnesses in humans, including those such as the common cold, that have resulted in outbreaks and pandemics such as the 1889-1890 pandemic,^[116]^[117] the 2002–2004 SARS outbreak, Middle East respiratory syndrome–related coronavirus and the COVID-19 pandemic. There is widespread concern that members of the coronavirus family, particularly SARS and MERS have the potential to cause future pandemics.^[118] Many human coronaviruses have zoonotic origins, their with natural reservoir in bats or rodents,^[119] leading to concerns for future spillover events.^[120]

Following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic Public Health Emergency of International Concern deceleration by WHO, WHO Director General Tedros Ghebreyesus stated he would not hesitate to re-declare COVID-19 a PHEIC should the global situation worsen in the coming months or years.

Influenza

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President Barack Obama is briefed in the Situation Room about the 2009 flu pandemic, which killed as many as 17,000 Americans.^[121]

Influenza was first described by the Greek physician Hippocrates in 412Template:NbspBC.^[122] Since the Middle Ages, influenza pandemics have been recorded every 10 to 30 years as the virus mutates to evade immunity.^[123]^[124]

Influenza is an endemic disease, with a fairly constant number of cases which vary seasonally and can, to a certain extent, be predicted.^[125] In a typical year, 5–15% of the population contracts influenza. There are 3–5 million severe cases annually, with up to 650,000 respiratory-related deaths globally each year.^[126] The 1889–1890 pandemic is estimated to have caused around a million fatalities,^[127] and the "Spanish flu" of 1918–1920 eventually infected about one-third of the world's population and caused an estimated 50Template:Nbspmillion fatalities.^[91]

The Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System is a global network of laboratories that has for purpose to monitor the spread of influenza with the aim to provide WHO with influenza control information.^[128] More than two million respiratory specimens are tested by GISRS annually to monitor the spread and evolution of influenza viruses through a network of about 150 laboratories in 114 countries representing 91% of the world's population.^[129]

Antibiotic resistance

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Antibiotic-resistant microorganisms, which sometimes are referred to as "superbugs", may contribute to the re-emergence of diseases with pandemic potential that are currently well controlled.^[130]

For example, cases of tuberculosis that are resistant to traditionally effective treatments remain a cause of great concern to health professionals. Every year, nearly half a million new cases of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are estimated to occur worldwide.^[131] China and India have the highest rate of MDR-TB.^[132] WHO reports that approximately 50 million people worldwide are infected with MDR-TB, with 79 percent of those cases resistant to three or more antibiotics. Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) was first identified in Africa in 2006 and subsequently discovered to exist in 49 countries. During 2021 there were estimated to be around 25,000 cases XDR-TB worldwide.^[133]

In the past 20 years, other common bacteria including Staphylococcus aureus, Serratia marcescens and Enterococcus, have developed resistance to a wide range of antibiotics. Antibiotic-resistant organisms have become an important cause of healthcare-associated (nosocomial) infections.^[134]

Climate change

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Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that is the vector for dengue transmission.

There are two groups of infectious diseases that may be affected by climate change. The first group are vector-borne diseases which are transmitted via insects such as mosquitos or ticks.^[135] Some of these diseases, such as malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, can have potentially severe health consequences. Climate can affect the distribution of these diseases due to the changing geographic range of their vectors, with the potential to cause serious outbreaks in areas where the disease has not previously been known.^[136] The other group comprises water-borne diseases such as cholera, dysentery, and typhoid which may increase in prevalence due to changes in rainfall patterns.^[137]

Encroaching into wildlands

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The October 2020 'era of pandemics' report by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, written by 22 experts in a variety of fields, said the anthropogenic destruction of biodiversity is paving the way to the pandemic era and could result in as many as 850,000 viruses being transmitted from animals—in particular birds and mammals—to humans. The "exponential rise" in consumption and trade of commodities such as meat, palm oil, and metals, largely facilitated by developed nations, and a growing human population, are the primary drivers of this destruction. According to Peter Daszak, the chair of the group who produced the report, "there is no great mystery about the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic or any modern pandemic. The same human activities that drive climate change and biodiversity loss also drive pandemic risk through their impacts on our environment." Proposed policy options from the report include taxing meat production and consumption, cracking down on the illegal wildlife trade, removing high-risk species from the legal wildlife trade, eliminating subsidies to businesses that are harmful to the natural world, and establishing a global surveillance network.^[138]^[139]^[140]

In June 2021, a team of scientists assembled by the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment warned that the primary cause of pandemics so far, the anthropogenic destruction of the natural world through such activities including deforestation and hunting, is being ignored by world leaders.^[141]

Melting permafrost

Permafrost covers a fifth of the northern hemisphere and is made up of soil that has been kept at temperatures below freezing for long periods. Viable samples of viruses have been recovered from thawing permafrost, after having been frozen for many years, sometimes for millennia. There is a remote possibility that a thawed pathogen could infect humans or animals.^[142]^[143]

Artificial intelligence

Experts have raised concerns that advances in artificial intelligence could facilitate the design of particularly dangerous pathogens with pandemic potential. They recommended in 2024 that governments implement mandatory oversight and testing requirements.^[144]

Economic consequences

In 2016, the commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future estimated that pandemic disease events would cost the global economy over $6 trillion in the 21st century—over $60 billion per year.^[145] The same report recommended spending $4.5 billion annually on global prevention and response capabilities to reduce the threat posed by pandemic events, a figure that the World Bank Group raised to $13 billion in a 2019 report.^[146] It has been suggested that such costs be paid from a tax on aviation rather than from, e.g., income taxes,^[147] given the crucial role of air traffic in transforming local epidemics into pandemics (being the only factor considered in state-of-the-art models of long-range disease transmission ^[148]).

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have a profound negative effect on the global economy, potentially for years to come, with substantial drops in GDP accompanied by increases in unemployment noted around the world.^[49] The slowdown of economic activity early in the COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect on emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases.^[149]^[150]^[151] Analysis of ice cores taken from the Swiss Alps has revealed a reduction in atmospheric lead pollution over a four-year period corresponding to the years 1349 to 1353 (when the Black Death was ravaging Europe), indicating a reduction in mining and economic activity generally.^[152]

Notes

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References

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External links

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[71] "Ancient Athenian Plague Proves to Be Typhoid". Scientific American. 25 January 2006.

[72] Past pandemics that ravaged Europe. BBC News, 7Template:NbspNovember. 2005

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[77] Stéphane Barry and Norbert Gualde, in L'Histoire No. 310, June 2006, pp. 45–46, say "between one-third and two-thirds"; Robert Gottfried (1983). "Black Death" in Dictionary of the Middle Ages, volume 2, pp. 257–267, says "between 25 and 45 percent".

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[81] The Great Plague of London, 1665. The Harvard University Library, Open Collections Program: Contagion.

[cbc-cholera-82] Cholera's seven pandemics, cbc.ca, December 2, 2008.

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[132] Bill Gates joins Chinese government in tackling TB 'timebomb'. Guardian.co.uk. 1 April 2009

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@@ Line 5: / Line 5: @@
 [[File:Field Hospital Visit (49746816753).jpg|thumb|300px|Early in the [[COVID-19 pandemic]], [[convention center]]s (pictured here) were deemed to be ideal sites for [[Field hospital|temporary hospitals]], due to their existing infrastructure (electrical, water, sewage).<ref name=FedNewsNet_20200327/> Hotels and dormitories were also considered appropriate because they can use [[Negative room pressure|negative pressure]] technology.<ref name=FedNewsNet_20200327>{{cite news | vauthors = Serbu J |title=Army Corps sees convention centers as good option to build temporary hospitals |url=https://federalnewsnetwork.com/defense-main/2020/03/army-corps-sees-convention-centers-as-good-option-to-build-temporary-hospitals/ |work=Federal News Network |date=27 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200414063937/https://federalnewsnetwork.com/defense-main/2020/03/army-corps-sees-convention-centers-as-good-option-to-build-temporary-hospitals/ |archive-date=14 April 2020 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]
-A '''pandemic''' ({{IPAc-en|p|æ|n|'|d|ɛ|m|ɪ|k}} {{respell|pan|DEM|ik}}) is an [[epidemic]] of an [[infectious disease]] that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance multiple [[continent]]s or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread [[endemic (epidemiology)|endemic]] diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of [[seasonal influenza]] are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.
+A '''pandemic''' ({{IPAc-en|p|æ|n|'|d|ɛ|m|ɪ|k}} {{respell|pan|DEM|ik}}) is an [[epidemic]] of an [[infectious disease]] that has a sudden increase in cases and spreads across a large region, for instance multiple [[continent]]s or worldwide, affecting a substantial portion of the human population. Widespread [[endemic (epidemiology)|endemic]] diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of [[seasonal influenza]] are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.
-Throughout [[human history]], there have been a number of pandemics of diseases such as [[smallpox]]. The [[Black Death]], caused by the [[Plague (disease)|Plague]], caused the deaths of up to half of the population of Europe in the 14th century.<ref name="ABC/Reuters">{{cite news|url=http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/01/29/2149185.htm|title=Black death 'discriminated' between victims (ABC News in Science)|date=29 January 2008|access-date=3 November 2008|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161220120404/http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/01/29/2149185.htm|archive-date=20 December 2016|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation}}</ref><ref name="Black Death's Gene Code Cracked">{{cite magazine|url=http://archive.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2001/10/47288|title=Black Death's Gene Code Cracked|magazine=Wired|date=3 October 2001|access-date=12 February 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150426160438/http://archive.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2001/10/47288|archive-date=26 April 2015|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Health: De-coding the Black Death">{{cite news |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1576875.stm |title=Health: De-coding the Black Death |publisher=BBC |date=3 October 2001 |access-date=3 November 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170707042715/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1576875.stm |archive-date=7 July 2017 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = DeLeo FR, Hinnebusch BJ | title = A plague upon the phagocytes | journal = Nature Medicine | volume = 11 | issue = 9 | pages = 927–928 | date = September 2005 | pmid = 16145573 | doi = 10.1038/nm0905-927 | s2cid = 31060258 | doi-access = free }}</ref> The term ''pandemic'' had not been used then, but was used for later epidemics, including the 1918 [[Influenza A virus subtype H1N1|H1N1 influenza A]] pandemic—more commonly known as the [[Spanish flu]]—which is the [[Deadliest pandemics in history|deadliest pandemic in history]].<ref>[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemics-h1n1.html 1918 Pandemics (H1N1 virus).] [[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]]. Retrieved 18 April 2020.</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=History's deadliest pandemics, from ancient Rome to modern America|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/local/retropolis/coronavirus-deadliest-pandemic/|date=7 April 2020|access-date=11 April 2020| vauthors = Rosenwald MS |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|url-status=dead|url-access=subscription|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200407204000/https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/local/retropolis/coronavirus-deadliest-pandemics/|archive-date=7 April 2020}}</ref><ref name="WHO99">{{cite web|url= https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory06_08_2010/en/|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20150807183818/http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory06_08_2010/en/|url-status= dead|archive-date= 7 August 2015|title=Weekly Virological Update on 05 August 2010 | date=5 August 2010|website=World Health Organization (WHO) |access-date=8 April 2020}}</ref> The most recent pandemics include the [[AIDS pandemic|HIV/AIDS pandemic]],{{efn|Most medical sources, including the WHO, do not refer to HIV/AIDS as a pandemic; those that do refer to it in the past-tense to separate the acute and chronic phases.}}<ref>{{cite journal |display-authors=6 |vauthors=Roychoudhury S, Das A, Sengupta P, Dutta S, Roychoudhury S, Choudhury AP, Ahmed AB, Bhattacharjee S, Slama P |date=December 2020 |title=Viral Pandemics of the Last Four Decades: Pathophysiology, Health Impacts and Perspectives |journal=International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |volume=17 |issue=24 |pages=9411 |doi=10.3390/ijerph17249411 |pmc=7765415 |pmid=33333995 |doi-access=free}}</ref> the [[2009 swine flu pandemic]] and the [[COVID-19 pandemic]].<!-- The majority of medical and media sources refer to the COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS pandemic in the past tense. The WHO itself, while it doesn't declare pandemics, does refer to HIV as an epidemic. Please use talk page to discuss changes. --> Almost all these diseases still circulate among humans though their impact now is often far less.
+Throughout [[human history]], there have been a number of pandemics of diseases such as [[smallpox]]. The [[Black Death]], caused by the [[Plague (disease)|Plague]], caused the deaths of up to half of the population of Europe in the 14th century.<ref name="ABC/Reuters">{{cite news|url=http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/01/29/2149185.htm|title=Black death 'discriminated' between victims (ABC News in Science)|date=29 January 2008|access-date=3 November 2008|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161220120404/http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/01/29/2149185.htm|archive-date=20 December 2016|publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation}}</ref><ref name="Black Death's Gene Code Cracked">{{cite magazine|url=http://archive.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2001/10/47288|title=Black Death's Gene Code Cracked|magazine=Wired|date=3 October 2001|access-date=12 February 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150426160438/http://archive.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2001/10/47288|archive-date=26 April 2015|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="Health: De-coding the Black Death">{{cite news |url=https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1576875.stm |title=Health: De-coding the Black Death |publisher=BBC |date=3 October 2001 |access-date=3 November 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170707042715/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/1576875.stm |archive-date=7 July 2017 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = DeLeo FR, Hinnebusch BJ | title = A plague upon the phagocytes | journal = Nature Medicine | volume = 11 | issue = 9 | pages = 927–928 | date = September 2005 | pmid = 16145573 | doi = 10.1038/nm0905-927 | s2cid = 31060258 | doi-access = free }}</ref> The term ''pandemic'' had not been used then, but was used for later epidemics, including the 1918 [[Influenza A virus subtype H1N1|H1N1 influenza A]] pandemic—more commonly known as the [[Spanish flu]]—which is the [[Deadliest pandemics in history|deadliest pandemic in history]].<ref>[https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemics-h1n1.html 1918 Pandemics (H1N1 virus).] [[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]]. Retrieved 18 April 2020.</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=History's deadliest pandemics, from ancient Rome to modern America|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/local/retropolis/coronavirus-deadliest-pandemic/|date=7 April 2020|access-date=11 April 2020| vauthors = Rosenwald MS |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|url-status=dead|url-access=subscription|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200407204000/https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/local/retropolis/coronavirus-deadliest-pandemics/|archive-date=7 April 2020}}</ref><ref name="WHO99">{{cite web|url= https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory06_08_2010/en/|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20150807183818/http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/laboratory06_08_2010/en/|url-status= dead|archive-date= 7 August 2015|title=Weekly Virological Update on 05 August 2010 | date=5 August 2010|website=World Health Organization (WHO) |access-date=8 April 2020}}</ref> The most recent pandemics include the [[AIDS pandemic|HIV/AIDS pandemic]],{{efn|Most medical sources, including the WHO, do not refer to HIV/AIDS as a pandemic; those that do refer to it in the past-tense to separate the acute and chronic phases.}}<ref>{{cite journal |display-authors=6 |vauthors=Roychoudhury S, Das A, Sengupta P, Dutta S, Roychoudhury S, Choudhury AP, Ahmed AB, Bhattacharjee S, Slama P |date=December 2020 |title=Viral Pandemics of the Last Four Decades: Pathophysiology, Health Impacts and Perspectives |journal=International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |volume=17 |issue=24 |page=9411 |doi=10.3390/ijerph17249411 |pmc=7765415 |pmid=33333995 |doi-access=free}}</ref> the [[2009 swine flu pandemic]] and the [[COVID-19 pandemic]].<!-- The majority of medical and media sources refer to the COVID-19 and HIV/AIDS pandemic in the past tense. The WHO itself, while it doesn't declare pandemics, does refer to HIV as an epidemic. Please use talk page to discuss changes. --> Almost all these diseases still circulate among humans though their impact now is often far less.
 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, 194 member states of the [[World Health Organization]] began negotiations on an [[International Treaty on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response]], with a requirement to submit a draft of this treaty to the 77th [[World Health Assembly]] during its 2024 convention.<ref name=":02">{{cite web |date=1 December 2021 |title=World Health Assembly agrees to launch process to develop historic global accord on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/01-12-2021-world-health-assembly-agrees-to-launch-process-to-develop-historic-global-accord-on-pandemic-prevention-preparedness-and-response |access-date=2 December 2021 |website=[[World Health Organization]] }}</ref><ref name=":13">{{cite news | vauthors = Cumming-Bruce N |date=1 December 2021 |title=W.H.O. members agree to begin talks on a global pandemic treaty. |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/world/who-pandemic-treaty.html |access-date=2 December 2021 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref> Further, on 6 May 2024, the [[White House]] released an official policy to more safely manage medical research projects involving [[Pathogen|potentially hazardous pathogens]], including [[virus]]es and [[bacteria]], that may pose a risk of a pandemic.<ref name="NYT-20240507">{{cite news |last1=Zimmer |first1=Carl |last2=Mueller |first2=Benjamin |title=U.S. Tightens Rules on Risky Virus Research - A long-awaited new policy broadens the type of regulated viruses, bacteria, fungi and toxins, including those that could threaten crops and livestock. |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/science/covid-lab-leak-biosafety-rules-virus-research.html |date=7 May 2024 |work=[[The New York Times]] |url-status=live |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20240507162105/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/science/covid-lab-leak-biosafety-rules-virus-research.html |archivedate=7 May 2024 |accessdate=8 May 2024 }}</ref><ref name="WH-20240506">{{cite news |author=[[White House]] |title=United States Government Policy for Oversight of Dual Use Research of Concern and Pathogens with Enhanced Pandemic Potential |url=https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/USG-Policy-for-Oversight-of-DURC-and-PEPP.pdf |date=6 May 2024 |work=[[Whitehouse.gov]] |url-status=live |archive-url=https://archive.today/20240508110439/https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/USG-Policy-for-Oversight-of-DURC-and-PEPP.pdf |archive-date=8 May 2024 |access-date=8 May 2024 }}</ref>
@@ Line 24: / Line 24: @@
 | alt1              =
 }}
+The word comes from the [[Ancient Greek|Greek]] {{Lang|grc|παν-}} {{Lang|grc-latn|pan-}} meaning {{Gloss|all, every}}, and {{Lang|grc|δῆμος}} {{Lang|grc-latn|demos}} {{Gloss|people}}, hence "common to all the people" cf. [[Aphrodite Pandemos]]. The term survives until today in [[Modern Greek]] with the meaning "all-people's" or "concerning all the people" i.e. "a pandemic assembly".
 A medical dictionary definition of pandemic is "an [[epidemic]] occurring on a scale that crosses international boundaries, usually affecting people on a worldwide scale".<ref name=Porta2008>{{cite book| veditors = Porta M |title=Dictionary of Epidemiology|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=3Dr8dyuzvTkC&pg=PA179|access-date=14 September 2012|year=2008|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=978-0-19-531449-6|page=179}}</ref> A disease or condition is not a pandemic merely because it is widespread or kills many people; it must also be infectious. For instance, [[cancer]] is responsible for many deaths but is not considered a pandemic because the disease is not [[Infection#Contagiousness|contagious]]—i.e. easily transmissible—and not even simply [[Infection|infectious]].<ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Dumar AM |title=Swine Flu: What You Need to Know |date=2009 |publisher=Wildside Press LLC |isbn=978-1434458322 |page=7}}</ref> This definition differs from colloquial usage in that it encompasses outbreaks of relatively mild diseases.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Morens D, Folkers G, Fauci A |date=1 October 2009 |title=What Is a Pandemic? |url=https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/200/7/1018/903237 |access-date=7 June 2023 |journal=The Journal of Infectious Diseases |volume=200 |issue=7 |pages=1018–1021 |doi=10.1086/644537 |pmid=19712039 |url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Doshi P | title = The elusive definition of pandemic influenza | journal = Bulletin of the World Health Organization | volume = 89 | issue = 7 | pages = 532–538 | date = July 2011 | pmid = 21734768 | pmc = 3127275 | doi = 10.2471/BLT.11.086173 }}</ref>
@@ Line 29: / Line 31: @@
 A WHO-sponsored international body, tasked with preparing an [[International Treaty on Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness and Response|international agreement on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response]] has defined a pandemic as "the global spread of a pathogen or variant that infects human populations with limited or no immunity through sustained and high transmissibility from person to person, overwhelming health systems with severe morbidity and high mortality, and causing social and economic disruptions, all of which require effective national and global collaboration and coordination for its control".<ref>{{cite web |date=1 February 2023 |title=Zero draft of the WHO convention, agreement or other international instrument on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response ("WHO CA+") |url=https://apps.who.int/gb/inb/pdf_files/inb4/A_INB4_3-en.pdf |access-date=7 June 2023 |website=World Health Organization – Intergovernmental Negotiating Body}}</ref>
-The word comes from the [[Ancient Greek|Greek]] {{Lang|grc|παν-}} {{Lang|grc-latn|pan-}} meaning {{Gloss|all, every}}, and {{Lang|grc|δῆμος}} {{Lang|grc-latn|demos}} {{Gloss|people}}.
 === Parameters ===
-A common early characteristic of a pandemic is a rapid, sometimes [[Exponential growth|exponential]], growth in the number of infections, coupled with a widening geographical spread.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Foster |first1=Grant |last2=Elderd |first2=Bret D |last3=Richards |first3=Robert L |last4=Dallas |first4=Tad |date=2022-09-01 |editor-last=Wilson |editor-first=Ian |title=Estimating R 0 from early exponential growth: parallels between 1918 influenza and 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemics |url=https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac194/6702748 |journal=PNAS Nexus |language=en |volume=1 |issue=4 |pages=pgac194 |doi=10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac194 |issn=2752-6542 |pmc=9802102 |pmid=36714850}}</ref>
+A common early characteristic of a pandemic is a rapid, sometimes [[Exponential growth|exponential]], growth in the number of infections, coupled with a widening geographical spread.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Foster |first1=Grant |last2=Elderd |first2=Bret D |last3=Richards |first3=Robert L |last4=Dallas |first4=Tad |date=2022-09-01 |editor-last=Wilson |editor-first=Ian |title=Estimating R 0 from early exponential growth: parallels between 1918 influenza and 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemics |url=https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac194/6702748 |journal=PNAS Nexus |language=en |volume=1 |issue=4 |article-number=pgac194 |doi=10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac194  |doi-access=free|issn=2752-6542 |pmc=9802102 |pmid=36714850}}</ref>
-[[World Health Organization|WHO]] utilises different criteria to declare a [[Public health emergency of international concern|Public Health Emergency of International Concern]] (PHEIC), its nearest equivalent to the term ''pandemic.''<ref>{{Cite web |last=Ross |first=Emma |date=20 Oct 2022 |title=What is the difference between a pandemic and a PHEIC (Video explainer) |url=https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/10/what-difference-between-pandemic-and-pheic |access-date=25 August 2023 |website=Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs |quote=There's a whole infrastructure and official process around designating something a PHEIC and designating that an outbreak is no longer a PHEIC. There's none of that when it comes to calling an outbreak pandemic.}}</ref> The potential consequences of an incident are considered, rather than its current status.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Wilder-Smith |first1=Annelies |last2=Osman |first2=Sarah |date=2020-12-23 |title=Public health emergencies of international concern: a historic overview |journal=Journal of Travel Medicine |language=en |volume=27 |issue=8 |doi=10.1093/jtm/taaa227 |issn=1195-1982 |pmc=7798963 |pmid=33284964}}</ref> For example, [[polio]] was [[Polio eradication#2011–2015|declared a PHEIC]] in 2014 even though only 482 cases were reported globally in the previous year;<ref>{{Cite web |title=GHO {{!}} By category {{!}} Poliomyelitis - Reported cases by country |url=https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.WHS3_49?lang=en |access-date=2023-08-25 |website=WHO}}</ref> this was justified by concerns that polio might break out of its endemic areas and again become a significant health threat globally.<ref>{{Cite web |date=5 May 2014 |title=WHO statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee concerning the international spread of wild poliovirus |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2014-who-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-emergency-committee-concerning-the-international-spread-of-wild-poliovirus |access-date=25 August 2023 |website=World Health Organization |language=en}}</ref> The PHEIC status of polio is reviewed regularly and is ongoing, despite the small number of cases annually.{{Efn|As of August 2023}}<ref>{{Cite web |title=Statement of the Thirty-sixth Meeting of the Polio IHR Emergency Committee |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/25-08-2023-statement-of-the-thirty-sixth-meeting-of-the-polio-ihr-emergency-committee |access-date=2023-08-25 |website=www.who.int |language=en}}</ref>
+[[World Health Organization|WHO]] utilises different criteria to declare a [[Public health emergency of international concern|Public Health Emergency of International Concern]] (PHEIC), its nearest equivalent to the term ''pandemic.''<ref>{{Cite web |last=Ross |first=Emma |date=20 Oct 2022 |title=What is the difference between a pandemic and a PHEIC (Video explainer) |url=https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/10/what-difference-between-pandemic-and-pheic |access-date=25 August 2023 |website=Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs |quote=There's a whole infrastructure and official process around designating something a PHEIC and designating that an outbreak is no longer a PHEIC. There's none of that when it comes to calling an outbreak pandemic.}}</ref> The potential consequences of an incident are considered, rather than its current status.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Wilder-Smith |first1=Annelies |last2=Osman |first2=Sarah |date=2020-12-23 |title=Public health emergencies of international concern: a historic overview |journal=Journal of Travel Medicine |language=en |volume=27 |issue=8 |article-number=taaa227 |doi=10.1093/jtm/taaa227 |issn=1195-1982 |pmc=7798963 |pmid=33284964}}</ref> For example, [[polio]] was [[Polio eradication#2011–2015|declared a PHEIC]] in 2014 even though only 482 cases were reported globally in the previous year;<ref>{{Cite web |title=GHO {{!}} By category {{!}} Poliomyelitis - Reported cases by country |url=https://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.WHS3_49?lang=en |access-date=2023-08-25 |website=WHO}}</ref> this was justified by concerns that polio might break out of its endemic areas and again become a significant health threat globally.<ref>{{Cite web |date=5 May 2014 |title=WHO statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee concerning the international spread of wild poliovirus |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2014-who-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-emergency-committee-concerning-the-international-spread-of-wild-poliovirus |access-date=25 August 2023 |website=World Health Organization |language=en}}</ref> The PHEIC status of polio is reviewed regularly and is ongoing, despite the small number of cases annually.{{Efn|As of August 2023}}<ref>{{Cite web |title=Statement of the Thirty-sixth Meeting of the Polio IHR Emergency Committee |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/25-08-2023-statement-of-the-thirty-sixth-meeting-of-the-polio-ihr-emergency-committee |access-date=2023-08-25 |website=www.who.int |language=en}}</ref>
 The end of a pandemic is more difficult to delineate. Generally, past epidemics and pandemics have faded out as the diseases become accepted into people's daily lives and routines, becoming [[Endemic (epidemiology)|endemic]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Charters |first1=Erica |last2=Heitman |first2=Kristin |date=February 2021 |title=How epidemics end |journal=Centaurus |language=en |volume=63 |issue=1 |pages=210–224 |doi=10.1111/1600-0498.12370 |issn=0008-8994 |pmc=8014506 |pmid=33821019}}</ref> The transition from pandemic to endemic may be defined based on:
@@ Line 44: / Line 44: @@
 * perceived personal risk is lessened
 * restrictive measures such as [[Travel during the COVID-19 pandemic|travel restrictions]] removed
-* less coverage in public media.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Ioannidis |first=John P. A. |date=June 2022 |title=The end of the COVID-19 pandemic |journal=European Journal of Clinical Investigation |language=en |volume=52 |issue=6 |pages=e13782 |doi=10.1111/eci.13782 |issn=0014-2972 |pmc=9111437 |pmid=35342941}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Steenhuysen |first=Julie |date=2021-11-17 |title=Fauci says boosters for all key to U.S. reaching COVID-19 endemic level |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fauci-says-us-can-reach-covid-endemic-level-rather-than-pandemic-next-year-2021-11-16/ |access-date=2023-08-22}}</ref>
+* less coverage in public media.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Ioannidis |first=John P. A. |date=June 2022 |title=The end of the COVID-19 pandemic |journal=European Journal of Clinical Investigation |language=en |volume=52 |issue=6 |article-number=e13782 |doi=10.1111/eci.13782 |issn=0014-2972 |pmc=9111437 |pmid=35342941}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Steenhuysen |first=Julie |date=2021-11-17 |title=Fauci says boosters for all key to U.S. reaching COVID-19 endemic level |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fauci-says-us-can-reach-covid-endemic-level-rather-than-pandemic-next-year-2021-11-16/ |access-date=2023-08-22}}</ref>
 An endemic disease is always present in a population, but at a relatively low and predictable level. There may be periodic spikes of infections or seasonality, (e.g. [[influenza]]) but generally the burden on health systems is manageable.<ref name=":0" />
@@ Line 53: / Line 53: @@
 Pandemic '''prevention''' comprises activities such as anticipatory research and development of therapies and vaccines, as well as monitoring for pathogens and disease outbreaks which may have pandemic potential.<ref name="PP_Why">{{Cite web | vauthors = Williams N |date=6 July 2022 |title=What is Pandemic Preparedness and Why is it Important? |url=https://www.news-medical.net/health/What-is-Pandemic-Preparedness-and-Why-is-it-Important.aspx |access-date=20 August 2023 |website=News Medical Network |language=en}}</ref> [[Routine vaccinations|Routine vaccination]] programs are a type of prevention strategy, holding back diseases such as [[influenza]] and [[polio]] which have caused pandemics in the past, and could do so again if not controlled.<ref>{{Cite web |date=15 September 2022 |title=14 Diseases You Almost Forgot About (Thanks to Vaccines) |url=https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |language=en-us}}</ref> Prevention overlaps with '''preparedness''' which aims to curtail an outbreak and prevent it getting out of control - it involves strategic planning, data collection and modelling to measure the spread, stockpiling of therapies, vaccines, and medical equipment, as well as public health awareness campaigning.<ref>{{Cite web | vauthors = Campbell K |date=15 November 2022 |title=3 Steps to Detect and Stop Disease Outbreaks before They Become Pandemics |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/3-steps-to-detect-and-stop-disease-outbreaks-before-they-become-pandemics/ |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=Scientific American |language=en}}</ref> By definition, a pandemic involves many countries so international cooperation, data sharing, and collaboration are essential; as is universal access to tests and therapies.<ref name="PP_Why" />
-'''Collaboration''' – In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO established a Pandemic Hub in September 2021 in Berlin, aiming to address weaknesses around the world in how countries detect, monitor and manage public health threats. The Hub's initiatives include using artificial intelligence to analyse more than 35,000 data feeds for indications of emerging health threats, as well as improving facilities and coordination between academic institutions and WHO member countries.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Morgan O, Pebody R | title = The WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence; supporting better preparedness for future health emergencies | journal = Euro Surveillance | volume = 27 | issue = 20 | pages = 2200385 | date = May 2022 | pmid = 35593162 | pmc = 9121660 | doi = 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.20.2200385 }}</ref>
+'''Collaboration''' – In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO established a Pandemic Hub in September 2021 in Berlin, aiming to address weaknesses around the world in how countries detect, monitor and manage public health threats. The Hub's initiatives include using artificial intelligence to analyse more than 35,000 data feeds for indications of emerging health threats, as well as improving facilities and coordination between academic institutions and WHO member countries.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Morgan O, Pebody R | title = The WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence; supporting better preparedness for future health emergencies | journal = Euro Surveillance | volume = 27 | issue = 20 | article-number = 2200385 | date = May 2022 | pmid = 35593162 | pmc = 9121660 | doi = 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.20.2200385 }}</ref>
 '''Detection''' – In May 2023, WHO launched the International Pathogen Surveillance Network (IPSN) (hosted by the Pandemic Hub) aiming to detect and respond to disease threats before they become epidemics and pandemics, and to optimize routine disease surveillance. The network provides a platform to connect countries, improving systems for collecting and analysing samples of potentially harmful [[pathogen]]s.<ref>{{Cite web |date=20 May 2023 |title=WHO launches global network to detect and prevent infectious disease threats |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/20-05-2023-who-launches-global-network-to--detect-and-prevent-infectious-disease-threats |access-date=2023-08-17 |website=World Health Organization |language=en}}</ref> [[Wastewater-based epidemiology|Wastewater surveillance]] can for example provide early warnings by detecting pathogens in sewage.<ref>{{Cite web |date=14 February 2024 |title=How sewers are helping us to monitor disease outbreaks |url=https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240213-how-sewers-are-helping-us-to-monitor-disease-outbreaks |access-date=2025-01-05 |website=BBC |language=en-GB}}</ref>
-'''Therapies and vaccines''' – The [[Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations]] (CEPI) is developing a program as part of their 2022–2026 pandemic plan to condense new vaccine development timelines to 100 days, less than a third of the time it took to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Gouglas D, Christodoulou M, Hatchett R |date=March 2023 |title=The 100 Days Mission—2022 Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit |journal=Emerg Infect Dis |volume=29 |issue=3 |page=e221142 |doi=10.3201/eid2903.221142 |pmc=9973700 |pmid=}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Saville M, Cramer JP, Downham M, Hacker A, Lurie N, Van der Veken L, Whelan M, Hatchett R |date=14 July 2022 |title=Delivering Pandemic Vaccines in 100 Days - What Will It Take? |journal=N Engl J Med |volume=387 |issue=2 |page=e3 |doi=10.1056/NEJMp2202669 |pmc= |pmid=35249271}}</ref> In the US, the [[National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases]] (NIAID) has developed a Pandemic Preparedness Plan which focuses on identifying viruses of concern and developing diagnostics and therapies (including prototype vaccines) to combat them.<ref>{{Cite web |date=December 2021 |title=Pandemic Preparedness |url=https://www.niaid.nih.gov/research/pandemic-preparedness |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=NIH: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=December 2021 |title=NIAID Pandemic Preparedness Plan (pdf) |url=https://www.niaid.nih.gov/sites/default/files/pandemic-preparedness-plan.pdf |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases}}</ref>
+'''Therapies and vaccines''' – The [[Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations]] (CEPI) is developing a program as part of their 2022–2026 pandemic plan to condense new vaccine development timelines to 100 days, less than a third of the time it took to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Gouglas D, Christodoulou M, Hatchett R |date=March 2023 |title=The 100 Days Mission—2022 Global Pandemic Preparedness Summit |journal=Emerg Infect Dis |volume=29 |issue=3 |article-number=e221142 |doi=10.3201/eid2903.221142 |pmc=9973700 |pmid=}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Saville M, Cramer JP, Downham M, Hacker A, Lurie N, Van der Veken L, Whelan M, Hatchett R |date=14 July 2022 |title=Delivering Pandemic Vaccines in 100 Days - What Will It Take? |journal=N Engl J Med |volume=387 |issue=2 |page=e3 |doi=10.1056/NEJMp2202669 |pmc= |pmid=35249271}}</ref> In the US, the [[National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases]] (NIAID) has developed a Pandemic Preparedness Plan which focuses on identifying viruses of concern and developing diagnostics and therapies (including prototype vaccines) to combat them.<ref>{{Cite web |date=December 2021 |title=Pandemic Preparedness |url=https://www.niaid.nih.gov/research/pandemic-preparedness |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=NIH: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=December 2021 |title=NIAID Pandemic Preparedness Plan (pdf) |url=https://www.niaid.nih.gov/sites/default/files/pandemic-preparedness-plan.pdf |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases}}</ref>
 '''Modeling''' is important to inform policy decisions. It helps to predict the burden of disease on healthcare facilities, the effectiveness of control measures, projected geographical spread, and timing and extent of future pandemic waves.<ref>{{Cite web |date=1 December 2022 |title=Technical report on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK - Chapter 5: modelling |url=https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-report-on-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-uk/chapter-5-modelling |access-date=21 August 2023 |website=Department of Health & Social Care |language=en}}</ref>
@@ Line 117: / Line 117: @@
 * preparation for future pandemic waves.
-At the same time, the CDC adopted the [[Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework]] (PSAF) to assess the severity of influenza pandemics.<ref name="Holloway2014" /> The PSAF rates the severity of an influenza outbreak on two dimensions: clinical severity of illness in infected persons; and the transmissibility of the infection in the population.<ref name="Reed2013">{{cite journal | vauthors = Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Finelli L, Koonin LM, Beauvais D, Uzicanin A, Plummer A, Bresee J, Redd SC, Jernigan DB | display-authors = 6 | title = Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics | journal = Emerging Infectious Diseases | volume = 19 | issue = 1 | pages = 85–91 | date = January 2013 | pmid = 23260039 | pmc = 3557974 | doi = 10.3201/eid1901.120124 }}</ref> This tool was not applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Bhatia R, Sledge I, Baral S | title = Missing science: A scoping study of COVID-19 epidemiological data in the United States | journal = PLOS ONE | volume = 17 | issue = 10 | pages = e0248793 | date = 2022-10-12 | pmid = 36223335 | pmc = 9555641 | doi = 10.1371/journal.pone.0248793 | doi-access = free | bibcode = 2022PLoSO..1748793B }}</ref>
+At the same time, the CDC adopted the [[Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework]] (PSAF) to assess the severity of influenza pandemics.<ref name="Holloway2014" /> The PSAF rates the severity of an influenza outbreak on two dimensions: clinical severity of illness in infected persons; and the transmissibility of the infection in the population.<ref name="Reed2013">{{cite journal | vauthors = Reed C, Biggerstaff M, Finelli L, Koonin LM, Beauvais D, Uzicanin A, Plummer A, Bresee J, Redd SC, Jernigan DB | display-authors = 6 | title = Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics | journal = Emerging Infectious Diseases | volume = 19 | issue = 1 | pages = 85–91 | date = January 2013 | pmid = 23260039 | pmc = 3557974 | doi = 10.3201/eid1901.120124 }}</ref> This tool was not applied during the COVID-19 pandemic.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Bhatia R, Sledge I, Baral S | title = Missing science: A scoping study of COVID-19 epidemiological data in the United States | journal = PLOS ONE | volume = 17 | issue = 10 | article-number = e0248793 | date = 2022-10-12 | pmid = 36223335 | pmc = 9555641 | doi = 10.1371/journal.pone.0248793 | doi-access = free | bibcode = 2022PLoSO..1748793B }}</ref>
 == Notable pandemics and outbreaks ==
@@ Line 132: / Line 132: @@
 ==== HIV/AIDS ====
 {{Main|HIV/AIDS|Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS}}
-[[File:HIV_prevalence_2022.png|thumb|A world map illustrating the proportion of population infected with HIV in 2019]]
+[[File:World map of HIV prevalence, 2023.png|thumb|A world map illustrating the proportion of population infected with HIV in 2023]]
-[[HIV/AIDS]] was first identified as a disease in 1981, and is an ongoing worldwide [[public health]] issue.<ref name=":2">{{Cite web |date=2 August 2023 |title=HIV/AIDS Factsheet |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/hiv-aids |access-date=2 August 2023 |website=World Health Organization |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Why the HIV epidemic is not over |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/spotlight/why-the-hiv-epidemic-is-not-over |access-date=2022-03-11 |website=www.who.int |language=en}}</ref> Since then, HIV/AIDS has killed an estimated 40 million people with a further 630,000 deaths annually; 39 million people are currently living with [[HIV]] infection.{{Efn|Statistics as at the end of 2022}}<ref name=":2" /> HIV has a [[zoonotic]] origin, having originated in nonhuman [[primate]]s in [[Central Africa]] and transferred to humans in the early 20th century.<ref name="Orgin2011">{{cite journal |vauthors=Sharp PM, Hahn BH |date=September 2011 |title=Origins of HIV and the AIDS pandemic |journal=Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Medicine |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=a006841 |doi=10.1101/cshperspect.a006841 |pmc=3234451 |pmid=22229120}}</ref> The most frequent mode of transmission of HIV is through sexual contact with an infected person. There may be a short period of mild, nonspecific symptoms followed by an asymptomatic (but nevertheless infectious) stage called [[clinical latency]] – without treatment, this stage can last between 3 and 20 years. The only way to detect infection is by means of a HIV test.<ref name="AIDS2010GOV">{{cite web |date=2017-05-15 |title=What Are HIV and AIDS? |url=https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/about-hiv-and-aids/what-are-hiv-and-aids/ |access-date=2 August 2023 |website=HIV.gov |publisher=U.S. Department of Health & Human Services |language=en}}</ref> There is no vaccine to prevent HIV infection, but the disease can be held in check by means of [[Management of HIV/AIDS|antiretroviral therapy]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=16 August 2021 |title=HIV Treatment: The Basics {{!}} NIH |url=https://hivinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv/fact-sheets/hiv-treatment-basics |access-date=2 August 2023 |website=hivinfo.nih.gov (a service of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services) |language=en}}</ref>
+[[HIV/AIDS]] was first identified as a disease in 1981, and is an ongoing worldwide [[public health]] issue.<ref name=":2">{{Cite web |date=2 August 2023 |title=HIV/AIDS Factsheet |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/hiv-aids |access-date=2 August 2023 |website=World Health Organization |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Why the HIV epidemic is not over |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/spotlight/why-the-hiv-epidemic-is-not-over |access-date=2022-03-11 |website=www.who.int |language=en}}</ref> Since then, HIV/AIDS has killed an estimated 40 million people with a further 630,000 deaths annually; 39 million people are currently living with [[HIV]] infection.{{Efn|Statistics as at the end of 2022}}<ref name=":2" /> HIV has a [[zoonotic]] origin, having originated in nonhuman [[primate]]s in [[Central Africa]] and transferred to humans in the early 20th century.<ref name="Orgin2011">{{cite journal |vauthors=Sharp PM, Hahn BH |date=September 2011 |title=Origins of HIV and the AIDS pandemic |journal=Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Medicine |volume=1 |issue=1 |article-number=a006841 |doi=10.1101/cshperspect.a006841 |pmc=3234451 |pmid=22229120}}</ref> The most frequent mode of transmission of HIV is through sexual contact with an infected person. There may be a short period of mild, nonspecific symptoms followed by an asymptomatic (but nevertheless infectious) stage called [[clinical latency]] – without treatment, this stage can last between 3 and 20 years. The only way to detect infection is by means of a HIV test.<ref name="AIDS2010GOV">{{cite web |date=2017-05-15 |title=What Are HIV and AIDS? |url=https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/about-hiv-and-aids/what-are-hiv-and-aids/ |access-date=2 August 2023 |website=HIV.gov |publisher=U.S. Department of Health & Human Services |language=en}}</ref> There is no vaccine to prevent HIV infection, but the disease can be held in check by means of [[Management of HIV/AIDS|antiretroviral therapy]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=16 August 2021 |title=HIV Treatment: The Basics {{!}} NIH |url=https://hivinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv/fact-sheets/hiv-treatment-basics |access-date=2 August 2023 |website=hivinfo.nih.gov (a service of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services) |language=en}}</ref>
 === Pandemics in history ===
@@ Line 143: / Line 143: @@
 Here is an incomplete list of known epidemics which have spread widely enough to merit the title "pandemic".
 * [[Plague of Athens]] (430 to 426 BC): During the [[Peloponnesian War]], an epidemic killed a quarter of the Athenian troops and a quarter of the population. This disease fatally weakened the dominance of [[Athens]], but the sheer virulence of the disease prevented its wider spread; i.e., it killed off its hosts at a rate faster than they could spread it. The exact cause of the plague was unknown for many years. In January 2006, researchers from the [[University of Athens]] analyzed [[teeth]] recovered from a [[mass grave]] underneath the city and confirmed the presence of [[bacteria]] responsible for [[typhoid fever]].<ref>[http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000BF619-9B78-13D6-9B7883414B7F0135&chanID=sa003 "Ancient Athenian Plague Proves to Be Typhoid"]. ''Scientific American.'' 25 January 2006.</ref>
-* [[Antonine Plague]] (165 to 180 AD): Possibly measles or smallpox brought to the Italian peninsula by soldiers returning from the Near East, it killed a quarter of those infected, up to five million in total.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4381924.stm Past pandemics that ravaged Europe]. ''BBC News'', 7{{nbsp}}November. 2005</ref>
+* [[Antonine Plague]] (165 to 180 AD): Possibly measles or smallpox brought to the Italian peninsula by soldiers returning from the Near East, it killed a quarter of those infected, up to five million in total.<ref>[https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4381924.stm Past pandemics that ravaged Europe]. ''BBC News'', 7{{nbsp}}November. 2005</ref>
-* [[Plague of Cyprian]] (251–266 AD): A second outbreak of what may have been the same disease as the Antonine Plague killed (it was said) 5,000 people a day in [[Rome]].<ref>{{cite web | vauthors = Horgan J |title=Plague of Cyprian, 250–270 CE |url=https://www.worldhistory.org/article/992/plague-of-cyprian-250-270-ce/ |access-date=16 July 2023 |website=World History Encyclopedia }}</ref>
+* [[Plague of Cyprian]] (251–266 AD): A second outbreak of what may have been the same disease as the Antonine Plague killed (it was said) 5,000 people a day in [[Rome]].<ref>{{cite web | vauthors = Horgan J |title=Plague of Cyprian, 250–270 CE |url=https://www.worldhistory.org/article/992/plague-of-cyprian-250-270-ce/ |access-date=16 July 2023 |website=World History Encyclopedia |date=13 December 2016 }}</ref>
 * [[Plague of Justinian]] (541 to 549 AD): Also known as the ''First Plague Pandemic''. This epidemic started in [[Egypt]] and reached [[Constantinople]] the following spring, killing (according to the Byzantine chronicler [[Procopius]]) 10,000 a day at its height, and perhaps 40% of the city's inhabitants. The plague went on to eliminate a quarter to half the [[human population]] of the known world and was identified in 2013 as being caused by [[bubonic plague]].<ref>{{cite web |date=20 May 2013 |title=Modern lab reaches across the ages to resolve plague DNA debate |url=http://phys.org/news/2013-05-modern-lab-ages-plague-dna.html |website=phys.org}}</ref><ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Little LK |title=Plague and the end of Antiquity: the pandemic of 541-750 |date=2007 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |location=Cambridge (Mass.) |isbn=978-0-521-84639-4}}</ref>
 * [[Black Death]] (1331 to 1353): Also known as the ''Second Plague Pandemic.'' The total number of deaths worldwide is estimated at 75 to 200 million. Starting in Asia, the disease reached the Mediterranean and western Europe in 1348 (possibly from Italian merchants fleeing fighting in [[Crimea]]) and killed an estimated 20 to 30 million Europeans in six years;<ref>[http://www.medhunters.com/articles/deathOnAGrandScale.html Death on a Grand Scale]. ''MedHunters.''</ref> a third of the total population,<ref>Stéphane Barry and Norbert Gualde, in ''[[L'Histoire]]'' No. 310, June 2006, pp. 45–46, say "between one-third and two-thirds"; Robert Gottfried (1983). "Black Death" in ''[[Dictionary of the Middle Ages]]'', volume 2, pp. 257–267, says "between 25 and 45&nbsp;percent".</ref> and up to a half in the worst-affected urban areas.<ref>{{cite EB1911 |wstitle=Plague |volume=21 |pages=693–705}}</ref> It was the first of a cycle of European [[Second plague pandemic|plague epidemics]] that continued until the 18th century;<ref>{{cite web |url=http://urbanrim.org.uk/plague%20list.htm |title=A List of National Epidemics of Plague in England 1348–1665 |publisher=Urbanrim.org.uk |date=4 August 2010 |access-date=26 August 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090508010316/http://urbanrim.org.uk/plague%20list.htm |archive-date=8 May 2009 |url-status=dead }}</ref> there were more than 100 plague epidemics in Europe during this period,<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/may/16/health.books |title=Black Death blamed on man, not rats |newspaper=The Observer | vauthors = Revill J |date= 16 May 2004|access-date=3 November 2008 | location=London}}</ref> including the [[Great Plague of London]] of 1665–66 which killed approximately 100,000 people, 20% of London's population.<ref>[http://ocp.hul.harvard.edu/contagion/plague.html The Great Plague of London, 1665]. ''The Harvard University Library, Open Collections Program: Contagion.''</ref>
 * [[1817–1824 cholera pandemic]]. Previously endemic in the [[Indian subcontinent]], the pandemic began in [[Bengal]], then spread across India by 1820. The deaths of 10,000 British troops were documented - it is assumed that tens of thousands of Indians must have died.<ref name="cbc-cholera">[https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/cholera-s-seven-pandemics-1.758504 Cholera's seven pandemics], cbc.ca, December 2, 2008.</ref> The disease spread as far as China, [[Indonesia]] (where more than 100,000 people succumbed on the island of [[Java]] alone)<ref>{{Cite web |title=Cholera - Pandemic, Waterborne, 19th Century {{!}} Britannica |url=https://www.britannica.com/science/cholera/Cholera-through-history |access-date=2023-08-27 |website=www.britannica.com |language=en}}</ref> and the [[Caspian Sea]] before receding. Subsequent cholera pandemics during the 19th century are estimated to have caused many millions of deaths globally.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Pollitzer |first=R. |date=1954 |title=Cholera studies |journal=Bulletin of the World Health Organization |volume=10 |issue=3 |pages=421–461 |issn=0042-9686 |pmc=2542143 |pmid=13160764}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=McNeill |first=William Hardy |title=Plagues and peoples |date=1998 |publisher=Anchor Books |isbn=978-0-385-12122-4 |edition=Reprint [der Ausg.] Garden City, NY, 1976 |location=New York}}</ref>[[File:Chevalier Roze à la Tourette - 1720.PNG|thumb|[[Great Plague of Marseille]] in 1720 killed a total of 100,000 people]]
-* [[Third plague pandemic]] (1855–1960): Starting in China, it is estimated to have caused over 12 million deaths in total, the majority of them in India.<ref>{{cite web |title=History's Seven Deadliest Plagues {{!}} Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance |url=https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/historys-seven-deadliest-plagues |access-date=16 July 2023 |website=www.gavi.org }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.who.int/vaccine_research/diseases/zoonotic/en/index4.html |title=Zoonotic Infections: Plague |publisher=World Health Organization |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090420003315/http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/diseases/zoonotic/en/index4.html |archive-date=20 April 2009 |access-date=5 July 2014}}</ref> During this pandemic, the United States saw its first outbreak: the [[San Francisco plague of 1900–1904]].<ref>[https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/dm00bu.html Bubonic plague hits San Francisco 1900–1909]. ''A Science Odyssey. Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).''</ref> The causative bacterium, ''[[Yersinia pestis]]'', was identified in 1894.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Yersin A |year=1894 |title=La peste bubonique à Hong-Kong |url=https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/23590#page/692/mode/1up |journal=Annales de l'Institut Pasteur |volume=8 |pages=662–67 |language=fr}}</ref> The association with fleas, and in particular rat fleas in urban environments, led to effective control measures. The pandemic was considered to be over in 1959 when annual deaths due to plague dropped below 200. The disease is nevertheless present in the rat population worldwide and isolated human cases still occur.<ref>{{cite web |date=7 July 2022 |title=Plague |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/plague |access-date=16 July 2023 |website=World Health Organization }}</ref>
+* [[Third plague pandemic]] (1855–1960): Starting in China, it is estimated to have caused over 12 million deaths in total, the majority of them in India.<ref>{{cite web |title=History's Seven Deadliest Plagues {{!}} Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance |url=https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/historys-seven-deadliest-plagues |access-date=16 July 2023 |website=www.gavi.org }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.who.int/vaccine_research/diseases/zoonotic/en/index4.html |title=Zoonotic Infections: Plague |publisher=World Health Organization |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090420003315/http://www.who.int/vaccine_research/diseases/zoonotic/en/index4.html |archive-date=20 April 2009 |access-date=5 July 2014}}</ref> During this pandemic, the United States saw its first outbreak: the [[San Francisco plague of 1900–1904]].<ref>[https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/dm00bu.html Bubonic plague hits San Francisco 1900–1909]. ''A Science Odyssey. Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).''</ref> The causative bacterium, ''[[Yersinia pestis]]'', was identified in 1894.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Yersin A |year=1894 |title=La peste bubonique à Hong-Kong |url=https://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/23590#page/692/mode/1up |journal=Annales de l'Institut Pasteur |volume=8 |pages=662–667 |language=fr}}</ref> The association with fleas, and in particular rat fleas in urban environments, led to effective control measures. The pandemic was considered to be over in 1959 when annual deaths due to plague dropped below 200. The disease is nevertheless present in the rat population worldwide and isolated human cases still occur.<ref>{{cite web |date=7 July 2022 |title=Plague |url=https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/plague |access-date=16 July 2023 |website=World Health Organization }}</ref>
-* The 1918–1920 [[Spanish flu]] infected half a billion people<ref name="Taubenberger">{{cite journal |vauthors=Taubenberger JK, Morens DM |date=January 2006 |title=1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics |url=https://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm |url-status=dead |journal=Emerging Infectious Diseases |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=15–22 |doi=10.3201/eid1201.050979 |pmc=3291398 |pmid=16494711 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091006002531/http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm |archive-date=6 October 2009 |access-date=7 September 2017}}</ref> around the world, including on remote [[Pacific islands]] and in the [[Arctic]]—killing 20 to 100 million.<ref name="Taubenberger" /><ref>{{cite web| title=Historical Estimates of World Population| url=https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120709092946/https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php| url-status=dead| archive-date=9 July 2012| access-date=29 March 2013}}</ref> Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, but the 1918 pandemic had an unusually high mortality rate for young adults.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Gagnon A, Miller MS, Hallman SA, Bourbeau R, Herring DA, Earn DJ, Madrenas J | title = Age-specific mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic: unravelling the mystery of high young adult mortality | journal = PLOS ONE | volume = 8 | issue = 8 | pages = e69586 | year = 2013 | pmid = 23940526 | pmc = 3734171 | doi = 10.1371/journal.pone.0069586 | bibcode = 2013PLoSO...869586G | doi-access = free }}</ref> It killed more people in 25 weeks than AIDS did in its first 25 years.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/|title=The 1918 Influenza Pandemic|website=virus.stanford.edu}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100127100727/http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/world/spanish%20flu%20facts/111285 | archive-date = 27 January 2010 | url-status = dead | url = http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/world/spanish%20flu%20facts/111285 | title = Spanish flu facts | work = Channel 4 News }}</ref> Mass troop movements and close quarters during World War{{nbsp}}I caused it to spread and [[mutation|mutate]] faster, and the susceptibility of soldiers to the flu may have been increased by stress, [[malnourishment]] and [[chemical attack]]s.<ref>{{cite book| vauthors = Qureshi AI | title=Ebola Virus Disease: From Origin to Outbreak| url=https://books.google.com/books?id=7zyXCgAAQBAJ&q=Ebola+Virus+Disease:+From+Origin+to+Outbreak+Adnan+1918+pandemic&pg=PA42| page=42| publisher=Academic Press| date=2016| isbn=978-0128042427}}</ref> Improved transportation systems made it easier for soldiers, sailors and civilian travelers to spread the disease.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20131211093810/http://www.xtimeline.com/evt/view.aspx?id=65022 Spanish flu strikes during World War I], 14 January 2010</ref>
+* The 1918–1920 [[Spanish flu]] infected half a billion people<ref name="Taubenberger">{{cite journal |vauthors=Taubenberger JK, Morens DM |date=January 2006 |title=1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics |url=https://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm |url-status=dead |journal=Emerging Infectious Diseases |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=15–22 |doi=10.3201/eid1201.050979 |pmc=3291398 |pmid=16494711 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091006002531/http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979.htm |archive-date=6 October 2009 |access-date=7 September 2017}}</ref> around the world, including on remote [[Pacific islands]] and in the [[Arctic]]—killing 20 to 100 million.<ref name="Taubenberger" /><ref>{{cite web| title=Historical Estimates of World Population| url=https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120709092946/https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php| url-status=dead| archive-date=9 July 2012| access-date=29 March 2013}}</ref> Most influenza outbreaks disproportionately kill the very young and the very old, but the 1918 pandemic had an unusually high mortality rate for young adults.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Gagnon A, Miller MS, Hallman SA, Bourbeau R, Herring DA, Earn DJ, Madrenas J | title = Age-specific mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic: unravelling the mystery of high young adult mortality | journal = PLOS ONE | volume = 8 | issue = 8 | article-number = e69586 | year = 2013 | pmid = 23940526 | pmc = 3734171 | doi = 10.1371/journal.pone.0069586 | bibcode = 2013PLoSO...869586G | doi-access = free }}</ref> It killed more people in 25 weeks than AIDS did in its first 25 years.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/|title=The 1918 Influenza Pandemic|website=virus.stanford.edu}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20100127100727/http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/world/spanish%20flu%20facts/111285 | archive-date = 27 January 2010 | url-status = dead | url = http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/world/spanish%20flu%20facts/111285 | title = Spanish flu facts | work = Channel 4 News }}</ref> Mass troop movements and close quarters during World War{{nbsp}}I caused it to spread and [[mutation|mutate]] faster, and the susceptibility of soldiers to the flu may have been increased by stress, [[malnourishment]] and [[chemical attack]]s.<ref>{{cite book| vauthors = Qureshi AI | title=Ebola Virus Disease: From Origin to Outbreak| url=https://books.google.com/books?id=7zyXCgAAQBAJ&q=Ebola+Virus+Disease:+From+Origin+to+Outbreak+Adnan+1918+pandemic&pg=PA42| page=42| publisher=Academic Press| date=2016| isbn=978-0128042427}}</ref> Improved transportation systems made it easier for soldiers, sailors and civilian travelers to spread the disease.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20131211093810/http://www.xtimeline.com/evt/view.aspx?id=65022 Spanish flu strikes during World War I], 14 January 2010</ref>
 === Pandemics in indigenous populations ===
@@ Line 161: / Line 161: @@
 In [[Australia]], smallpox was introduced by European settlers in 1789 devastating the [[Aboriginal Australians|Australian Aboriginal]] population, killing an estimated 50% of those infected with the disease during the first decades of colonisation.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Dowling P |title=Fatal contact: How epidemics nearly wiped out Australia's first peoples |publisher=Clayton, Victoria: Monash University Publishing |year=2021 |isbn=9781922464460 |pages=30–31, 60–63}}</ref> In the early 1800s, measles, smallpox and intertribal warfare killed an estimated 20,000 New Zealand [[Māori people|Māori]].<ref>{{cite web |date=31 March 1998 |title=New Zealand Historical Perspective |url=http://www.canr.msu.edu/overseas/nzenvironsci/infopart2.htm |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100612021507/http://www.canr.msu.edu/overseas/nzenvironsci/infopart2.htm |archive-date=12 June 2010 |access-date=26 August 2010 |publisher=Canr.msu.edu}}</ref>
-In 1848–49, as many as 40,000 out of 150,000 [[Hawaii]]ans are estimated to have died of [[measles]], [[whooping cough]] and [[influenza]]. Measles killed more than 40,000 [[Fiji]]ans, approximately one-third of the population, in 1875,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Derrick RA |date=18 April 1955 |title=Fiji's darkest hour – an account of the Measles Epidemic of 1875 |url=http://www.justpacific.com/fiji/full-text/Derrick%E2%80%94Measles.pdf |journal=Transactions and Proceedings of the Fiji Society |volume=for the years 1955–1957 |pages=6(1): 3–16}}</ref> and in the early 19th century devastated the [[Great Andamanese]] population.<ref>{{cite web | url = http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4987406.stm | title = Measles hits rare Andaman tribe | work = BBC News | date = 16 May 2006 }}</ref> In [[Hokkaido]], an epidemic of smallpox introduced by Japanese settlers is estimated to have killed 34% of the native [[Ainu people|Ainu]] population in 1845.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Walker BL |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=D5iOcHB3h5AC |title=The Conquest of Ainu Lands: Ecology and Culture in Japanese Expansion, 1590–1800 |date=2001 |publisher=University of California Press |isbn=978-0-520-93299-9 }}</ref>
+In 1848–49, as many as 40,000 out of 150,000 [[Hawaii]]ans are estimated to have died of [[measles]], [[whooping cough]] and [[influenza]]. Measles killed more than 40,000 [[Fiji]]ans, approximately one-third of the population, in 1875,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Derrick RA |date=18 April 1955 |title=Fiji's darkest hour – an account of the Measles Epidemic of 1875 |url=http://www.justpacific.com/fiji/full-text/Derrick%E2%80%94Measles.pdf |journal=Transactions and Proceedings of the Fiji Society |volume=6 |issue=1 |pages=3–16}}</ref> and in the early 19th century devastated the [[Great Andamanese]] population.<ref>{{cite web | url = https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4987406.stm | title = Measles hits rare Andaman tribe | work = BBC News | date = 16 May 2006 }}</ref> In [[Hokkaido]], an epidemic of smallpox introduced by Japanese settlers is estimated to have killed 34% of the native [[Ainu people|Ainu]] population in 1845.<ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Walker BL |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=D5iOcHB3h5AC |title=The Conquest of Ainu Lands: Ecology and Culture in Japanese Expansion, 1590–1800 |date=2001 |publisher=University of California Press |isbn=978-0-520-93299-9 }}</ref>
 == Concerns about future pandemics ==
@@ Line 177: / Line 177: @@
 !
 ![[World Health Organization|WHO]]<ref>{{cite web |date= |title=Prioritizing diseases for research and development in emergency contexts (Published 2018, revision in progress 2023) |url=https://www.who.int/activities/prioritizing-diseases-for-research-and-development-in-emergency-contexts |access-date=23 June 2023 |website=World Health Organization }}</ref>
-![[Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations|CEPI]]<ref>{{cite web |date=23 June 2023 |title=Targeting diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential |url=https://cepi.net/research_dev/priority-diseases/ |access-date=23 June 2023 |website=CEPI, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations }}</ref>
+![[Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations|CEPI]]<ref>{{cite web |date=23 June 2023 |title=Targeting diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential |url=https://cepi.net/research_dev/priority-diseases/ |access-date=23 June 2023 |website=CEPI, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations |archive-date=23 June 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230623095220/https://cepi.net/research_dev/priority-diseases/ |url-status=dead }}</ref>
 ![[GAVI]]<ref>{{cite web |date=7 May 2020 |title=10 infectious diseases that could be the next pandemic {{!}} Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance |url=https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/10-infectious-diseases-could-be-next-pandemic |access-date=23 June 2023 |website=Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance }}</ref>
 |-
@@ Line 249: / Line 249: @@
 {{Further|2002–2004 SARS outbreak|COVID-19 pandemic}}
 [[File:Coronavirus virion.jpg|thumb|A generic coronavirus illustration]]
-[[Coronavirus]] diseases are a family of usually mild illnesses in humans, including those such as the [[common cold]], that have resulted in outbreaks and pandemics such as the [[1889–1890 pandemic|1889-1890 pandemic]],<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Berche P | title = The enigma of the 1889 Russian flu pandemic: A coronavirus? | journal = Presse Médicale | volume = 51 | issue = 3 | pages = 104111 | date = September 2022 | pmid = 35124103 | pmc = 8813723 | doi = 10.1016/j.lpm.2022.104111 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-02-14 |title=An Undiscovered Coronavirus? The Mystery of the 'Russian Flu' (Published 2022) |work=The New York Times |language=en |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/health/russian-flu-coronavirus.html |access-date=2023-07-29 |last1=Kolata |first1=Gina }}</ref> the [[2002–2004 SARS outbreak]], ''[[Middle East respiratory syndrome–related coronavirus]]'' and the [[COVID-19 pandemic]]. There is widespread concern that members of the coronavirus family, particularly [[SARS]] and MERS have the potential to cause future pandemics.<ref>{{cite web | vauthors = Heymann D, Ross E, Wallace J |date=23 February 2022 |title=The next pandemic – when could it be? |url=https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be |access-date=24 July 2023 |website=Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs}}</ref> Many human coronaviruses have zoonotic origins, their with natural reservoir in bats or rodents,<ref name=":82">{{cite journal | vauthors = Forni D, Cagliani R, Clerici M, Sironi M | title = Molecular Evolution of Human Coronavirus Genomes | journal = Trends in Microbiology | volume = 25 | issue = 1 | pages = 35–48 | date = January 2017 | pmid = 27743750 | pmc = 7111218 | doi = 10.1016/j.tim.2016.09.001 | quote = Specifically, all HCoVs are thought to have a bat origin, with the exception of lineage A beta-CoVs, which may have reservoirs in rodents [2]. }}</ref> leading to concerns for future [[Spillover infection|spillover]] events.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Holmes EC | title = COVID-19-lessons for zoonotic disease | journal = Science | volume = 375 | issue = 6585 | pages = 1114–1115 | date = March 2022 | pmid = 35271309 | doi = 10.1126/science.abn2222 | bibcode = 2022Sci...375.1114H | s2cid = 247384213 }}</ref>
+[[Coronavirus]] diseases are a family of usually mild illnesses in humans, including those such as the [[common cold]], that have resulted in outbreaks and pandemics such as the [[1889–1890 pandemic|1889-1890 pandemic]],<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Berche P | title = The enigma of the 1889 Russian flu pandemic: A coronavirus? | journal = Presse Médicale | volume = 51 | issue = 3 | article-number = 104111 | date = September 2022 | pmid = 35124103 | pmc = 8813723 | doi = 10.1016/j.lpm.2022.104111 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-02-14 |title=An Undiscovered Coronavirus? The Mystery of the 'Russian Flu' (Published 2022) |work=The New York Times |language=en |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/health/russian-flu-coronavirus.html |access-date=2023-07-29 |last1=Kolata |first1=Gina }}</ref> the [[2002–2004 SARS outbreak]], ''[[Middle East respiratory syndrome–related coronavirus]]'' and the [[COVID-19 pandemic]]. There is widespread concern that members of the coronavirus family, particularly [[SARS]] and MERS have the potential to cause future pandemics.<ref>{{cite web | vauthors = Heymann D, Ross E, Wallace J |date=23 February 2022 |title=The next pandemic – when could it be? |url=https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/02/next-pandemic-when-could-it-be |access-date=24 July 2023 |website=Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs}}</ref> Many human coronaviruses have zoonotic origins, their with natural reservoir in bats or rodents,<ref name=":82">{{cite journal | vauthors = Forni D, Cagliani R, Clerici M, Sironi M | title = Molecular Evolution of Human Coronavirus Genomes | journal = Trends in Microbiology | volume = 25 | issue = 1 | pages = 35–48 | date = January 2017 | pmid = 27743750 | pmc = 7111218 | doi = 10.1016/j.tim.2016.09.001 | quote = Specifically, all HCoVs are thought to have a bat origin, with the exception of lineage A beta-CoVs, which may have reservoirs in rodents [2]. }}</ref> leading to concerns for future [[Spillover infection|spillover]] events.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Holmes EC | title = COVID-19-lessons for zoonotic disease | journal = Science | volume = 375 | issue = 6585 | pages = 1114–1115 | date = March 2022 | pmid = 35271309 | doi = 10.1126/science.abn2222 | bibcode = 2022Sci...375.1114H | s2cid = 247384213 }}</ref>
 Following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic Public Health Emergency of International Concern deceleration by WHO, WHO Director General [[Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus|Tedros Ghebreyesus]] stated he would not hesitate to re-declare COVID-19 a PHEIC should the global situation worsen in the coming months or years.
@@ Line 273: / Line 273: @@
 [[File:Aedes_aegypti_CDC9253.tif|thumb|''[[Aedes aegypti]]'', the mosquito that is the vector for [[dengue]] transmission.]]
-There are two groups of infectious diseases that may be affected by climate change. The first group are [[vector-borne disease]]s which are transmitted via insects such as mosquitos or ticks.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781009325844/type/book |title=Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |date=29 June 2023 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |isbn=978-1-009-32584-4 |edition=1 |pages=1041–1170 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.009}}</ref> Some of these diseases, such as [[malaria]], [[yellow fever]], and [[dengue fever]], can have potentially severe health consequences. Climate can affect the distribution of these diseases due to the changing geographic range of their vectors, with the potential to cause serious outbreaks in areas where the disease has not previously been known.<ref name="The Mosquito's Bite">{{cite book | vauthors = Epstein PR, Ferber D |url= https://archive.org/details/unset0000unse_c1j4/page/29 |title=Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and what We Can Do about it |publisher=University of California Press |year=2011 |isbn=978-0-520-26909-5 |pages=[https://archive.org/details/unset0000unse_c1j4/page/29 29–61] |chapter=The Mosquito's Bite |chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=nnOkFhXo8rEC&pg=PA29}}</ref> The other group comprises [[Waterborne diseases|water-borne]] diseases such as cholera, dysentery, and typhoid which may increase in prevalence due to changes in rainfall patterns.<ref>{{Cite journal | vauthors = Jung YJ, Khant NA, Kim H, Namkoong S |date=January 2023 |title=Impact of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: Directions towards Sustainability |journal=Water |language=en |volume=15 |issue=7 |pages=1298 |doi=10.3390/w15071298 |issn=2073-4441 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023Water..15.1298J }}</ref>
+There are two groups of infectious diseases that may be affected by climate change. The first group are [[vector-borne disease]]s which are transmitted via insects such as mosquitos or ticks.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781009325844/type/book |title=Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |date=29 June 2023 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |isbn=978-1-009-32584-4 |edition=1 |pages=1041–1170 |doi=10.1017/9781009325844.009}}</ref> Some of these diseases, such as [[malaria]], [[yellow fever]], and [[dengue fever]], can have potentially severe health consequences. Climate can affect the distribution of these diseases due to the changing geographic range of their vectors, with the potential to cause serious outbreaks in areas where the disease has not previously been known.<ref name="The Mosquito's Bite">{{cite book | vauthors = Epstein PR, Ferber D |url= https://archive.org/details/unset0000unse_c1j4/page/29 |title=Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and what We Can Do about it |publisher=University of California Press |year=2011 |isbn=978-0-520-26909-5 |pages=[https://archive.org/details/unset0000unse_c1j4/page/29 29–61] |chapter=The Mosquito's Bite |chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=nnOkFhXo8rEC&pg=PA29}}</ref> The other group comprises [[Waterborne diseases|water-borne]] diseases such as cholera, dysentery, and typhoid which may increase in prevalence due to changes in rainfall patterns.<ref>{{Cite journal | vauthors = Jung YJ, Khant NA, Kim H, Namkoong S |date=January 2023 |title=Impact of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: Directions towards Sustainability |journal=Water |language=en |volume=15 |issue=7 |page=1298 |doi=10.3390/w15071298 |issn=2073-4441 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023Water..15.1298J }}</ref>
 === Encroaching into wildlands ===
 {{Further|Zoonosis#Biodiversity loss and environmental degradation|Human–wildlife conflict|Wildland–urban interface|Urban sprawl}}
-The October 2020 'era of pandemics' report by the [[United Nations]]' [[Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]], written by 22 experts in a variety of fields, said the anthropogenic destruction of [[biodiversity]] is paving the way to the pandemic era and could result in as many as 850,000 viruses being transmitted from animals—in particular [[birds]] and [[mammals]]—to humans. The [[Overconsumption|"exponential rise" in consumption]] and trade of commodities such as [[meat]], [[palm oil]], and metals, largely facilitated by developed nations, and a [[Population growth|growing human population]], are the primary drivers of this destruction. According to [[Peter Daszak]], the chair of the group who produced the report, "there is no great mystery about the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic or any modern pandemic. The same human activities that drive [[climate change and biodiversity loss]] also drive pandemic risk through their impacts on our environment." Proposed policy options from the report include taxing meat production and consumption, cracking down on the illegal wildlife trade, removing high-risk species from the legal wildlife trade, eliminating subsidies to businesses that are harmful to the natural world, and establishing a global surveillance network.<ref>{{cite news |date=29 October 2020 |title=UN report says up to 850,000 animal viruses could be caught by humans, unless we protect nature |work=[[The Conversation (website)|The Conversation]] |url=https://theconversation.com/un-report-says-up-to-850-000-animal-viruses-could-be-caught-by-humans-unless-we-protect-nature-148911 |access-date=1 December 2020 |vauthors=Woolaston K, Fisher JL}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=29 October 2020 |title=Protecting nature is vital to escape 'era of pandemics' – report |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/29/protecting-nature-vital-pandemics-report-outbreaks-wild |access-date=1 December 2020 |vauthors=Carrington D}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.--> |date=29 October 2020 |title=Escaping the 'Era of Pandemics': experts warn worse crises to come; offer options to reduce risk |work=EurekAlert! |url=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/tca-et102820.php |access-date=1 December 2020}}</ref>
+The October 2020 'era of pandemics' report by the [[United Nations]]' [[Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]], written by 22 experts in a variety of fields, said the anthropogenic destruction of [[biodiversity]] is paving the way to the pandemic era and could result in as many as 850,000 viruses being transmitted from animals—in particular [[birds]] and [[mammals]]—to humans. The [[Overconsumption|"exponential rise" in consumption]] and trade of commodities such as [[meat]], [[palm oil]], and metals, largely facilitated by developed nations, and a [[Population growth|growing human population]], are the primary drivers of this destruction. According to [[Peter Daszak]], the chair of the group who produced the report, "there is no great mystery about the cause of the Covid-19 pandemic or any modern pandemic. The same human activities that drive [[climate change and biodiversity loss]] also drive pandemic risk through their impacts on our environment." Proposed policy options from the report include taxing meat production and consumption, cracking down on the illegal wildlife trade, removing high-risk species from the legal wildlife trade, eliminating subsidies to businesses that are harmful to the natural world, and establishing a global surveillance network.<ref>{{cite news |date=29 October 2020 |title=UN report says up to 850,000 animal viruses could be caught by humans, unless we protect nature |work=[[The Conversation (website)|The Conversation]] |url=https://theconversation.com/un-report-says-up-to-850-000-animal-viruses-could-be-caught-by-humans-unless-we-protect-nature-148911 |access-date=1 December 2020 |vauthors=Woolaston K, Fisher JL}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=29 October 2020 |title=Protecting nature is vital to escape 'era of pandemics' – report |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/29/protecting-nature-vital-pandemics-report-outbreaks-wild |access-date=1 December 2020 |vauthors=Carrington D}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |author=<!--Staff writer(s); no by-line.--> |date=29 October 2020 |title=Escaping the 'Era of Pandemics': experts warn worse crises to come; offer options to reduce risk |work=EurekAlert! |url=https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/tca-et102820.php |access-date=1 December 2020 |archive-date=17 November 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201117010851/https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/tca-et102820.php |url-status=dead }}</ref>
 In June 2021, a team of scientists assembled by the [[Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment]] warned that the primary cause of pandemics so far, the anthropogenic destruction of the natural world through such activities including [[deforestation]] and [[hunting]], is being ignored by world leaders.<ref>{{cite news |date=4 June 2021 |title=World leaders 'ignoring' role of the destruction of nature in causing pandemics |work=The Guardian |location= |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/end-destruction-of-nature-to-stop-future-pandemics-say-scientists |access-date=4 June 2021 |vauthors=Carrington D}}</ref>
 === Melting permafrost ===
-[[Permafrost]] covers a fifth of the northern hemisphere and is made up of soil that has been kept at temperatures below freezing for long periods. Viable samples of viruses have been recovered from thawing permafrost, after having been frozen for many years, sometimes for millennia. There is a remote possibility that a thawed pathogen could infect humans or animals.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Alempic |first1=Jean-Marie |last2=Lartigue |first2=Audrey |last3=Goncharov |first3=Artemiy E. |last4=Grosse |first4=Guido |last5=Strauss |first5=Jens |last6=Tikhonov |first6=Alexey N. |last7=Fedorov |first7=Alexander N. |last8=Poirot |first8=Olivier |last9=Legendre |first9=Matthieu |last10=Santini |first10=Sébastien |last11=Abergel |first11=Chantal |last12=Claverie |first12=Jean-Michel |date=18 February 2023 |title=An Update on Eukaryotic Viruses Revived from Ancient Permafrost |journal=Viruses |language=en |volume=15 |issue=2 |pages=564 |doi=10.3390/v15020564 |doi-access=free |pmid=36851778 |pmc=9958942 |issn=1999-4915}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Luhn |first=Alec |date=2016-08-01 |title=Anthrax outbreak triggered by climate change kills boy in Arctic Circle |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/anthrax-outbreak-climate-change-arctic-circle-russia |access-date=2024-01-22 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
+[[Permafrost]] covers a fifth of the northern hemisphere and is made up of soil that has been kept at temperatures below freezing for long periods. Viable samples of viruses have been recovered from thawing permafrost, after having been frozen for many years, sometimes for millennia. There is a remote possibility that a thawed pathogen could infect humans or animals.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Alempic |first1=Jean-Marie |last2=Lartigue |first2=Audrey |last3=Goncharov |first3=Artemiy E. |last4=Grosse |first4=Guido |last5=Strauss |first5=Jens |last6=Tikhonov |first6=Alexey N. |last7=Fedorov |first7=Alexander N. |last8=Poirot |first8=Olivier |last9=Legendre |first9=Matthieu |last10=Santini |first10=Sébastien |last11=Abergel |first11=Chantal |last12=Claverie |first12=Jean-Michel |date=18 February 2023 |title=An Update on Eukaryotic Viruses Revived from Ancient Permafrost |journal=Viruses |language=en |volume=15 |issue=2 |page=564 |doi=10.3390/v15020564 |doi-access=free |pmid=36851778 |pmc=9958942 |issn=1999-4915}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Luhn |first=Alec |date=2016-08-01 |title=Anthrax outbreak triggered by climate change kills boy in Arctic Circle |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/anthrax-outbreak-climate-change-arctic-circle-russia |access-date=2024-01-22 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref>
 === Artificial intelligence ===
@@ Line 289: / Line 289: @@
 == Economic consequences ==
-In 2016, the commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future estimated that pandemic disease events would cost the global economy over $6 trillion in the 21st century—over $60 billion per year.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://nam.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Neglected-Dimension-of-Global-Security.pdf|title=Global Health Risk Framework—The Neglected Dimension of Global Security: A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Crises|date=16 January 2016|publisher=National Academy of Medicine|access-date=2 August 2016}}</ref> The same report recommended spending $4.5 billion annually on global prevention and response capabilities to reduce the threat posed by pandemic events, a figure that the World Bank Group raised to $13 billion in a 2019 report.<ref name=WBG2019>{{cite book |last=World Bank Group |date=September 2019 |title=Pandemic Preparedness Financing. Status Update |url=https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/thematic_papers/tr-4.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200301034712/https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/thematic_papers/tr-4.pdf |url-status=dead |archive-date=1 March 2020 |location=Washington |publisher=World Bank Group}}</ref> It has been suggested that such costs be paid from a tax on aviation rather than from, e.g., income taxes,<ref name=socarxiv2020>{{cite journal |vauthors=Pueyo S |date=12 May 2020 |title=Jevons' paradox and a tax on aviation to prevent the next pandemic |journal=SocArXiv |doi=10.31235/osf.io/vb5q3|s2cid=219809283 |url=http://osf.io/vb5q3/ }}</ref> given the crucial role of air traffic in transforming local epidemics into pandemics (being the only factor considered in state-of-the-art models of long-range disease transmission <ref name=natcomm2018>{{cite journal | vauthors = Wang L, Wu JT | title = Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics | journal = Nature Communications | volume = 9 | issue = 1 | pages = 218 | date = January 2018 | pmid = 29335536 | pmc = 5768765 | doi = 10.1038/s41467-017-02344-z | doi-access = free | bibcode = 2018NatCo...9..218W }}</ref>).
+In 2016, the commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future estimated that pandemic disease events would cost the global economy over $6 trillion in the 21st century—over $60 billion per year.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://nam.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Neglected-Dimension-of-Global-Security.pdf|title=Global Health Risk Framework—The Neglected Dimension of Global Security: A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Crises|date=16 January 2016|publisher=National Academy of Medicine|access-date=2 August 2016}}</ref> The same report recommended spending $4.5 billion annually on global prevention and response capabilities to reduce the threat posed by pandemic events, a figure that the World Bank Group raised to $13 billion in a 2019 report.<ref name=WBG2019>{{cite book |last=World Bank Group |date=September 2019 |title=Pandemic Preparedness Financing. Status Update |url=https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/thematic_papers/tr-4.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200301034712/https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/thematic_papers/tr-4.pdf |url-status=dead |archive-date=1 March 2020 |location=Washington |publisher=World Bank Group}}</ref> It has been suggested that such costs be paid from a tax on aviation rather than from, e.g., income taxes,<ref name=socarxiv2020>{{cite journal |vauthors=Pueyo S |date=12 May 2020 |title=Jevons' paradox and a tax on aviation to prevent the next pandemic |journal=SocArXiv |doi=10.31235/osf.io/vb5q3|s2cid=219809283 |url=http://osf.io/vb5q3/ }}</ref> given the crucial role of air traffic in transforming local epidemics into pandemics (being the only factor considered in state-of-the-art models of long-range disease transmission <ref name=natcomm2018>{{cite journal | vauthors = Wang L, Wu JT | title = Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics | journal = Nature Communications | volume = 9 | issue = 1 | article-number = 218 | date = January 2018 | pmid = 29335536 | pmc = 5768765 | doi = 10.1038/s41467-017-02344-z | doi-access = free | bibcode = 2018NatCo...9..218W }}</ref>).
-The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have a profound [[COVID-19 recession|negative effect on the global economy]], potentially for years to come, with substantial drops in GDP accompanied by increases in unemployment noted around the world.<ref name="ACAIM-WACEM COVID-19 Consensus Paper"/> The slowdown of economic activity early in the COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect on emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases.<ref>{{cite journal |doi-access=free|doi=10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x|title=Temporary reduction in daily global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement|year=2020| vauthors = Le Quéré C, Jackson RB, Jones MW, Smith AJ, Abernethy S, Andrew RM, De-Gol AJ, Willis DR, Shan Y, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P | display-authors = 6 |journal=Nature Climate Change|volume=10|issue=7|pages=647–653|bibcode=2020NatCC..10..647L|hdl=10871/122774|hdl-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/pollution-made-the-pandemic-worse-but-lockdowns-clean-the-sky/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200409073134/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/pollution-made-the-pandemic-worse-but-lockdowns-clean-the-sky/|url-status=dead|archive-date=9 April 2020|title=Pollution made COVID-19 worse. Now, lockdowns are clearing the air|date=8 April 2020|work=National Geographic Magazine|access-date=22 June 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Bauwens M, Compernolle S, Stavrakou T, Müller JF, van Gent J, Eskes H, Levelt PF, van der Veefkind JP, Vlietinck J, Yu H, Zehner C | display-authors = 6 | title = Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak on NO<sub>2</sub> Pollution Assessed Using TROPOMI and OMI Observations | journal = Geophysical Research Letters | volume = 47 | issue = 11 | pages = e2020GL087978 | date = June 2020 | pmid = 32836515 | pmc = 7261997 | doi = 10.1029/2020GL087978 | bibcode = 2020GeoRL..4787978B | doi-access = free }}</ref> Analysis of ice cores taken from the Swiss Alps has revealed a reduction in atmospheric lead pollution over a four-year period corresponding to the years 1349 to 1353 (when the Black Death was ravaging Europe), indicating a reduction in mining and economic activity generally.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.popsci.com/black-death-plague-air-pollution/|title=The Black Death helped reveal how long humans have polluted the planet|date=25 September 2017|work=Popular Science Magazine|access-date=22 June 2020}}</ref>
+The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have a profound [[COVID-19 recession|negative effect on the global economy]], potentially for years to come, with substantial drops in GDP accompanied by increases in unemployment noted around the world.<ref name="ACAIM-WACEM COVID-19 Consensus Paper"/> The slowdown of economic activity early in the COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect on emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases.<ref>{{cite journal |doi-access=free|doi=10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x|title=Temporary reduction in daily global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement|year=2020| vauthors = Le Quéré C, Jackson RB, Jones MW, Smith AJ, Abernethy S, Andrew RM, De-Gol AJ, Willis DR, Shan Y, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P | display-authors = 6 |journal=Nature Climate Change|volume=10|issue=7|pages=647–653|bibcode=2020NatCC..10..647L|hdl=10871/122774|hdl-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/pollution-made-the-pandemic-worse-but-lockdowns-clean-the-sky/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200409073134/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/pollution-made-the-pandemic-worse-but-lockdowns-clean-the-sky/|url-status=dead|archive-date=9 April 2020|title=Pollution made COVID-19 worse. Now, lockdowns are clearing the air|date=8 April 2020|work=National Geographic Magazine|access-date=22 June 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Bauwens M, Compernolle S, Stavrakou T, Müller JF, van Gent J, Eskes H, Levelt PF, van der Veefkind JP, Vlietinck J, Yu H, Zehner C | display-authors = 6 | title = Impact of Coronavirus Outbreak on NO<sub>2</sub> Pollution Assessed Using TROPOMI and OMI Observations | journal = Geophysical Research Letters | volume = 47 | issue = 11 | article-number = e2020GL087978 | date = June 2020 | pmid = 32836515 | pmc = 7261997 | doi = 10.1029/2020GL087978 | bibcode = 2020GeoRL..4787978B | doi-access = free }}</ref> Analysis of ice cores taken from the Swiss Alps has revealed a reduction in atmospheric lead pollution over a four-year period corresponding to the years 1349 to 1353 (when the Black Death was ravaging Europe), indicating a reduction in mining and economic activity generally.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.popsci.com/black-death-plague-air-pollution/|title=The Black Death helped reveal how long humans have polluted the planet|date=25 September 2017|work=Popular Science Magazine|access-date=22 June 2020}}</ref>
 == See also ==
@@ Line 335: / Line 335: @@
 * {{cite journal | vauthors = Brook T | title = Comparative pandemics: the Tudor–Stuart and Wanli–Chongzhen years of pestilence, 1567–1666 | journal = Journal of Global History | date = November 2020 | volume = 15 | issue = 3 | pages = 363–379 | doi = 10.1017/S174002282000025X | s2cid = 228979855 | doi-access = free }}
 * {{cite journal | vauthors = Eisenberg M, Mordechai L | title = The Justinianic plague and global pandemics: The making of the plague concept. | journal = The American Historical Review | date = December 2020 | volume = 125 | issue = 5 | pages = 1632–1667 | doi = 10.1093/ahr/rhaa510 }}
-* {{cite news | vauthors = Honigsbaum M  |date=18 October 2020 |title=How do pandemics end? In different ways, but it's never quick and never neat |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/18/how-do-pandemics-end-in-different-ways-but-its-never-quick-and-never-neat |access-date=28 October 2020 |issn=0261-3077}}
+* {{cite news |vauthors=Honigsbaum M |date=18 October 2020 |title=How do pandemics end? In different ways, but it's never quick and never neat |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/18/how-do-pandemics-end-in-different-ways-but-its-never-quick-and-never-neat |access-date=28 October 2020 |issn=0261-3077 }}
 * {{cite journal | vauthors = Larson E | title = Community factors in the development of antibiotic resistance | journal = Annual Review of Public Health | volume = 28 | pages = 435–447 | year = 2007 | pmid = 17094768 | doi = 10.1146/annurev.publhealth.28.021406.144020 | doi-access = free }}
 * {{cite journal | vauthors = Lietaert Peerbolte BJ | date = September 2021 | title = The Book of Revelation: Plagues as Part of the Eschatological Human Condition | journal = [[Journal for the Study of the New Testament]] | publisher = [[SAGE Publications]] | volume = 44 | issue = 1 | pages = 75–92 | doi = 10.1177/0142064X211025496 | doi-access = free | issn = 1745-5294 | s2cid = 237332665 }}
@@ Line 341: / Line 341: @@
 * {{cite book |last1=Ogilvie |first1=Sheilagh |title=Controlling Contagion: Epidemics and Institutions from the Black Death to Covid |date=2025 |publisher=Princeton University Press |location=Princeton |isbn=9780691255569}}
 * {{cite magazine | vauthors = [[David Quammen|Quammen D]] | url = https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/31/did-pangolins-start-the-coronavirus-pandemic | title = Did Pangolin Trafficking Cause the Coronavirus Pandemic | magazine = [[The New Yorker]] | date = 24 August 202 | pages = 26–31 (31) | quote = More field research is needed [...]. More sampling of wild animals. More scrutiny of genomes. More cognizance of the fact that animal infections can become human infections because humans are animals. We live in a world of viruses, and we have scarcely begun to understand this one. [ [[COVID-19]] }}
-* {{cite web |url=https://ipbes.net/pandemics |title=Escaping the 'Era of Pandemics': Experts Warn Worse Crises to Come Options Offered to Reduce Risk |author=<!--Not stated-->|date=2020|publisher=[[Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]]}}
+* {{cite web|url=https://ipbes.net/pandemics|title=Escaping the 'Era of Pandemics': Experts Warn Worse Crises to Come Options Offered to Reduce Risk|author=<!--Not stated-->|date=2020|publisher=[[Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]]|access-date=2 November 2020|archive-date=26 January 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240126000615/https://www.ipbes.net/pandemics|url-status=dead}}
 {{refend}}
@@ Line 349: / Line 349: @@
 {{wikiquote}}
 * [https://www.who.int/en/ WHO | World Health Organization]
-* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4381924.stm Past pandemics that ravaged Europe]
+* [https://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4381924.stm Past pandemics that ravaged Europe]
 * [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/ Pandemic Influenza] at [[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention|CDC]]
 * [http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/ European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control]

Pandemic: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 19:52, 30 September 2025

Contents

Definition

Parameters

Prevention and preparedness

Ethical and political issues

Pandemic management strategies

Frameworks for influenza pandemics

WHO system

CDC Frameworks

Notable pandemics and outbreaks

Recent outbreaks

COVID-19

HIV/AIDS

Pandemics in history

Pandemics in indigenous populations

Concerns about future pandemics

Diseases with pandemic potential

Coronaviruses

Influenza

Antibiotic resistance

Climate change

Encroaching into wildlands

Melting permafrost

Artificial intelligence

Economic consequences

See also

Notes

References

Further reading

External links

Navigation menu

Pandemic: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 19:52, 30 September 2025

Definition

Parameters

Prevention and preparedness

Ethical and political issues

Pandemic management strategies

Frameworks for influenza pandemics

WHO system

CDC Frameworks

Notable pandemics and outbreaks

Recent outbreaks

COVID-19

HIV/AIDS

Pandemics in history

Pandemics in indigenous populations

Concerns about future pandemics

Diseases with pandemic potential

Coronaviruses

Influenza

Antibiotic resistance

Climate change

Encroaching into wildlands

Melting permafrost

Artificial intelligence

Economic consequences

See also

Notes

References

Further reading

External links

Navigation menu

Search