2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

Template:Short description Template:Use American English Template:ElectionsAZ The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Brewer ascended to the governorship following the resignation of the Popular incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano to become Secretary of Homeland Security in the Obama Administration. Primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

This was the last election until 2022 where a woman was the Republican nominee.

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Terry Goddard, State Attorney General, former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994

Declined

• Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
• Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix

Republican primary

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.

Candidates

Declared

• Jan Brewer, incumbent governor

Withdrew

• Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)
• Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)

Declined

• Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff
• J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
• John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party
• Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jan Brewer (inc.)	Dean Martin*	Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports	June 16, 2010	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 72%	12%	16%
Rasmussen Reports	May 17, 2010	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 45%	18%	18%
Public Policy Polling	April 23–25, 2010	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 25%	15%	11%
		style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 58%	16%	19%
Rasmussen Reports	April 13, 2010	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 26%	12%	18%
Rasmussen Reports	March 15, 2010	20%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 21%	19%
Rasmussen Reports	January 20, 2010	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 29%	27%	—
Rasmussen Reports	November 18, 2009	10%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 22%	—
Public Policy Polling	September 21, 2009	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 39%	26%	—

^{* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination}

Results

File:2010 Arizona gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg

Results by county:

  Brewer—80–90%

  Brewer—70–80%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
		Jan Brewer (Incumbent)		81.53
		Buz Mills*		8.68
		Dean Martin*		6.13
		Matthew Jette		3.34
		Write-in		0.32
Total votes				100

^{* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot}

Libertarian primary

Candidates

• Ronald Cavanaugh
• Barry Hess
• Bruce Olsen
• Alvin Ray Yount

Results

Libertarian primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
		Barry Hess		43.38
		Bruce Olsen		20.37
		Ronald Cavanaugh		18.21
		Write-in		9.95
		Alvin Ray Yount		8.09
Total votes				100

General election

Candidates

• Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
• Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
• Barry Hess (L)
• Larry Gist (G)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Template:USRaceRating	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg	Template:USRaceRating	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics	Template:USRaceRating	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Template:USRaceRating	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics	Template:USRaceRating	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Terry Goddard (D)	Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports	October 28, 2010	39%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 53%
Public Policy Polling	October 23–24, 2010	44%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 52%
BRC Polls	October 11, 2010	35%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 38%
Rasmussen Reports	October 3, 2010	39%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 55%
Rasmussen Reports	September 7, 2010	38%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 60%
Rasmussen Reports	August 25, 2010	38%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 57%
Rasmussen Reports	July 21, 2010	37%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 56%
Rasmussen Reports	June 29, 2010	35%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 53%
Rasmussen Reports	May 17, 2010	39%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 52%
Rasmussen Reports	April 27, 2010	40%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 48%
Public Policy Polling	April 23–25, 2010	style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 47%	44%
Rasmussen Reports	April 14, 2010	40%	style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44%
Rasmussen Reports	March 16, 2010	style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 45%	43%
Rasmussen Reports	January 20, 2010	style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 43%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	November 18, 2009	style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports	September 27, 2009	style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 42%	40%
Public Policy Polling	September 7, 2009	style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" align=center| 46%	36%

Debate

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question. After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
		Janice Kay Brewer (inc.)	Template:Replace	54.33%
		Samuel Pearson Goddard III	733,935	42.43%
		Barry Hess	38,722	2.24%
		Larry Gist	16,128	0.93%
	Write-ins		362	0.02%
Majority			204,999	11.86%
Turnout			1,728,081
	hold		Swing

By county

County Jan Brewer Republican Terry Goddard Democratic Barry Hess Libertarian Larry Gist Green Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % # % style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |Apache style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |7,002 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |33.89 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |12,839 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |62.14 style="background:Template:Party color" |514 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.48 294 1.4 Template:Party shading/Vacant |10 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.04 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-5,837 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-28.25 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |20,659 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Cochise style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |24,974 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |62.32 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |13,954 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |34.82 style="background:Template:Party color" |742 style="background:Template:Party color" |1.85 398 0.99 Template:Party shading/Vacant |2 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |11,020 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |27.50 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |40,070 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |Coconino style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |16,754 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |43.02 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |20,792 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |53.39 style="background:Template:Party color" |880 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.25 505 1.27 Template:Party shading/Vacant |13 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.01 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-4,038 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-10.37 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |38,942 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Gila style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |11,163 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |62.26 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |6,155 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |34.32 style="background:Template:Party color" |451 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.51 158 0.88 Template:Party shading/Vacant |2 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.01 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |5,008 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |27.94 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |17,929 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Graham style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |5,994 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |65.48 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |2,865 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |31.30 style="background:Template:Party color" |220 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.40 74 0.80 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |3,129 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |34.18 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |9,153 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Greenlee style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |1,187 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |48.48 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |1,177 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |48.08 style="background:Template:Party color" |60 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.45 24 0.98 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |10 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |0.40 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |2,448 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |La Paz style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |3,048 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |67.31 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |1,330 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |29.37 style="background:Template:Party color" |80 style="background:Template:Party color" |1.76 70 1.54 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |1,718 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |37.94 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |4,528 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Maricopa style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |543,045 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |54.78 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |415,142 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |41.88 style="background:Template:Party color" |24,077 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.42 8,600 0.86 Template:Party shading/Vacant |280 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.02 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |127,903 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |12.90 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |991,144 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Mohave style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |39,026 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |72.65 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |12,777 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |23.78 style="background:Template:Party color" |1,307 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.43 601 1.11 Template:Party shading/Vacant |4 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |26,249 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |48.87 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |53,715 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Navajo style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |16,157 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |54.49 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |12,517 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |42.22 style="background:Template:Party color" |648 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.18 317 1.06 Template:Party shading/Vacant |7 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.02 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |3,640 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |12.27 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |29,646 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |Pima style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |148,916 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |47.18 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |158,337 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |50.17 style="background:Template:Party color" |648 style="background:Template:Party color" |0.20 317 0.10 Template:Party shading/Vacant |16 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-9,421 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-2.99 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |315,589 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Pinal style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |45,807 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |58.28 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |30,109 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |38.31 style="background:Template:Party color" |1922 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.44 735 0.93 Template:Party shading/Vacant |18 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.02 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |15,698 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |19.97 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |78,591 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |Santa Cruz style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |3,190 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |31.76 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |6,608 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |65.81 style="background:Template:Party color" |138 style="background:Template:Party color" |1.37 105 1.04 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-3,418 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |-34.05 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |10,041 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Yavapai style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |53,081 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |65.21 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |25,569 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |31.41 style="background:Template:Party color" |1,830 style="background:Template:Party color" |2.24 900 1.10 Template:Party shading/Vacant |8 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |27,512 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |33.80 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |81,388 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |Yuma style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |19,590 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |57.22 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |13,764 style="color:black;background-color:Template:Democratic Party (US)/meta/shading" |40.20 style="background:Template:Party color" |500 style="background:Template:Party color" |1.46 380 1.10 Template:Party shading/Vacant |2 Template:Party shading/Vacant |0.00 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |5,826 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |17.02 style="background-color:Template:Republican Party (US)/meta/shading" |34,236 Totals 938,934 54.33 733,935 42.43 38,722 2.24 16,128 0.93 362 0.02 204,999 11.90 1,728,081 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista) Gila (Largest city: Payson) Graham (Largest city: Safford) Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton) La Paz (Largest city: Parker) Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix) Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City) Navajo (Largest city: Show Low) Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley) Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley) Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)

External links

• Elections at the Arizona Secretary of State
• Arizona Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
• Arizona Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• 2010 Arizona Governor General Election: Jan Brewer (R) vs Terry Goddard (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Arizona Governor from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Arizona Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Arizona Governor's Race from CQ Politics
• Campaign contributions for 2010 Arizona Governor from Follow the Money
• Race Profile in The New York Times

Debates

• Arizona Governor Debate, C-SPAN, September 1, 2010, full video (58:00)

Official campaign sites

• Jan Brewer for Governor (Archived)
• Terry Goddard for Governor (Archived)