(144898) 2004 VD17
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(144898) Template:Mp (provisional designation Template:Mp) is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group once thought to have a low probability of impacting Earth on 4 May 2102.[1] It reached a Torino Scale rating of 2 and a Palermo scale rating of −0.25 (an impact hazard of about 56% of the background level).[1] With an observation arc of 17 years it is known that closest Earth approach will occur two days earlier on 2 May 2102 at a distance of about 5.5 million km.[2]
| Date | JPL SBDB nominal geocentric distance |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|
| 2032-05-01 | Script error: No such module "val". | ± 127 km[3] |
| 2102-05-02 | Script error: No such module "val". | ± 50 thousand km |
| 2196-05-05 | Script error: No such module "val". | ± 354 thousand km |
History
Template:Mp was discovered on 7 November 2004, by the NASA-funded LINEAR asteroid survey. The object is estimated by NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office to be 580 meters in diameter with an approximate mass of Script error: No such module "val"..[4]
Being approximately 580 meters in diameter, if Template:Mp were to impact land, it would create an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide and generate an earthquake of magnitude 7.4.[5]
Elevated risk estimate in 2006
From February to May 2006, Template:Mp was listed with a Torino Scale impact risk value of 2, only the second asteroid in risk-monitoring history to be rated above value 1.[6] With an observation arc of 1511 days, it was estimated to have a 1 in 1320 chance of impacting on 4 May 2102.[1] The Torino rating was lowered to 1 after additional observations on 20 May 2006, and finally dropped to 0 on 17 October 2006.
2008 observations
As of 4 January 2008, the Sentry Risk Table assigned Template:Mp a Torino value of 0 and an impact probability of 1 in 58.8 million for 4 May 2102.[4] This value was far below the background impact rate of objects this size. Further observations allowed it to be removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 14 February 2008.[7]
It will pass Script error: No such module "convert". from the Earth on 1 May 2032, allowing a refinement to the orbit.[2]
Properties
It has a spectral type of E.[8] This suggests that the asteroid has a high albedo and is on the smaller size range for an object with an absolute magnitude of 18.8. Script error: No such module "Unsubst".
See also
- 3103 Eger, possible parent of the Aubrite asteroids
- 99942 Apophis
- Asteroid impact avoidance
- Aubrite asteroid family
- E-type asteroid
- Hungaria family of asteroids
- List of exceptional asteroids
References
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- ↑ a b c Script error: No such module "citation/CS1". (7.6e-04 = 1 in 1,320 chance)
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- ↑ a b Script error: No such module "citation/CS1". (1.7e-08 = 1 in 58,824,000 chance)
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External links
- Template:NeoDys
- Template:ESA-SSA
- Template:PAGENAMEBASE at the JPL Small-Body DatabaseTemplate:EditAtWikidataTemplate:WikidataCheck
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