Arrow's impossibility theorem: Difference between revisions

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{{Electoral systems|expanded=Social and collective choice}}
{{Electoral systems|expanded=Social and collective choice}}


'''Arrow's impossibility theorem''' is a key result in [[social choice theory]] showing that no [[Ordinal utility|ranked]]-choice procedure for group decision-making can satisfy the requirements of [[rational choice]].<ref name="plato.stanford.edu"/> Specifically, [[Kenneth Arrow|Arrow]] showed no such rule can satisfy [[independence of irrelevant alternatives]], the principle that a choice between two alternatives {{Math|''A''}} and {{Math|''B''}} should not depend on the quality of some third, unrelated option, {{Math|''C''}}.<ref name="Arrow1950">{{cite journal |last1=Arrow |first1=Kenneth J. |author-link1=Kenneth Arrow |year=1950 |title=A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare |url=http://gatton.uky.edu/Faculty/hoytw/751/articles/arrow.pdf |url-status=dead |journal=[[Journal of Political Economy]] |volume=58 |issue=4 |pages=328–346 |doi=10.1086/256963 |jstor=1828886 |s2cid=13923619 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110720090207/http://gatton.uky.edu/Faculty/hoytw/751/articles/arrow.pdf |archive-date=2011-07-20}}</ref><ref name="Arrow 1963234">{{Cite book |last=Arrow |first=Kenneth Joseph |url=http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/mon/m12-2-all.pdf |title=Social Choice and Individual Values |date=1963 |publisher=Yale University Press |isbn=978-0300013641 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/mon/m12-2-all.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="Wilson1972">{{Cite journal |last=Wilson |first=Robert |date=December 1972 |title=Social choice theory without the Pareto Principle |url=https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(72)90051-8 |journal=Journal of Economic Theory |volume=5 |issue=3 |pages=478–486 |doi=10.1016/0022-0531(72)90051-8 |issn=0022-0531|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
'''Arrow's impossibility theorem''' is a key result in [[social choice theory]] showing that no [[Ordinal utility|ranked]]-choice procedure for group decision-making can satisfy the requirements of [[rational choice]].<ref name="plato.stanford.edu"/> Specifically, [[Kenneth Arrow|Arrow]] showed no such rule can satisfy [[independence of irrelevant alternatives]], the principle that a choice between two alternatives {{Math|''A''}} and {{Math|''B''}} should not depend on the quality of some third, unrelated option, {{Math|''C''}}.<ref name="Arrow1950">{{cite journal |last1=Arrow |first1=Kenneth J. |author-link1=Kenneth Arrow |year=1950 |title=A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare |url=http://gatton.uky.edu/Faculty/hoytw/751/articles/arrow.pdf |journal=[[Journal of Political Economy]] |volume=58 |issue=4 |pages=328–346 |doi=10.1086/256963 |jstor=1828886 |s2cid=13923619 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110720090207/http://gatton.uky.edu/Faculty/hoytw/751/articles/arrow.pdf |archive-date=2011-07-20}}</ref><ref name="Arrow 1963234">{{Cite book |last=Arrow |first=Kenneth Joseph |url=http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/mon/m12-2-all.pdf |title=Social Choice and Individual Values |date=1963 |publisher=Yale University Press |isbn=978-0-300-01364-1 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/mon/m12-2-all.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="Wilson1972">{{Cite journal |last=Wilson |first=Robert |date=December 1972 |title=Social choice theory without the Pareto Principle |journal=Journal of Economic Theory |volume=5 |issue=3 |pages=478–486 |doi=10.1016/0022-0531(72)90051-8 |issn=0022-0531}}</ref>


The result is often cited in discussions of [[Electoral system|voting rules]],<ref name="Borgers2233">{{Cite book |last=Borgers |first=Christoph |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=u_XMHD4shnQC |title=Mathematics of Social Choice: Voting, Compensation, and Division |date=2010-01-01 |publisher=SIAM |isbn=9780898716955 |quote=Candidates C and D spoiled the election for B ... With them in the running, A won, whereas without them in the running, B would have won. ... Instant runoff voting ... does ''not'' do away with the spoiler problem entirely}}</ref> where it shows no [[ranked voting]] rule can eliminate the [[spoiler effect]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Ng |first=Y. K. |date=November 1971 |title=The Possibility of a Paretian Liberal: Impossibility Theorems and Cardinal Utility |url=https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/259845 |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=79 |issue=6 |pages=1397–1402 |doi=10.1086/259845 |issn=0022-3808 |quote="In the present stage of the discussion on the problem of social choice, it should be common knowledge that the General Impossibility Theorem holds because only the ordinal preferences is or can be taken into account. If the intensity of preference or cardinal utility can be known or is reflected in social choice, the paradox of social choice can be solved."|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Murray |last2=Asimakopulos |first2=A. |date=1952-05-01 |title=A Note on "Social Welfare Functions" and Cardinal Utility* |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-economics-and-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-economiques-et-science-politique/article/note-on-social-welfare-functions-and-cardinal-utility/653F2AEF0D2372DDE202BC7C3B0A231F |journal=Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=195–200 |doi=10.2307/138144 |issn=0315-4890 |jstor=138144 |quote=The abandonment of Condition 3  makes it possible to formulate a procedure for arriving at a social choice. Such a procedure is described below |via= |accessdate=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Hamlin |first1=Aaron |date=25 May 2015 |title=CES Podcast with Dr Arrow |url=https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181027170517/https://electology.org/podcasts/2012-10-06_kenneth_arrow |archive-date=27 October 2018 |access-date=9 March 2023 |website=Center for Election Science |publisher=CES}}</ref>  This result was first shown by the [[Marquis de Condorcet]], whose [[voting paradox]] showed the impossibility of logically-consistent [[majority rule]]; Arrow's theorem [[Generalization|generalizes]] Condorcet's findings to include non-majoritarian rules like [[collective leadership]] or [[consensus decision-making]].<ref name="plato.stanford.edu">{{cite book |title=The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy |publisher=Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University |chapter=Arrow's Theorem |chapter-url=https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arrows-theorem/ |first=Michael |last=Morreau |date=2014-10-13}}</ref>
The result is often cited in discussions of [[Electoral system|voting rules]],<ref name="Borgers2233">{{Cite book |last=Borgers |first=Christoph |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=u_XMHD4shnQC |title=Mathematics of Social Choice: Voting, Compensation, and Division |date=2010-01-01 |publisher=SIAM |isbn=978-0-89871-695-5 |quote=Candidates C and D spoiled the election for B ... With them in the running, A won, whereas without them in the running, B would have won. ... Instant runoff voting ... does ''not'' do away with the spoiler problem entirely}}</ref> where it shows no [[ranked voting]] rule can eliminate the [[spoiler effect]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Ng |first=Y. K. |date=November 1971 |title=The Possibility of a Paretian Liberal: Impossibility Theorems and Cardinal Utility |url=https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/259845 |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=79 |issue=6 |pages=1397–1402 |doi=10.1086/259845 |issn=0022-3808 |quote="In the present stage of the discussion on the problem of social choice, it should be common knowledge that the General Impossibility Theorem holds because only the ordinal preferences is or can be taken into account. If the intensity of preference or cardinal utility can be known or is reflected in social choice, the paradox of social choice can be solved."|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Murray |last2=Asimakopulos |first2=A. |date=1952-05-01 |title=A Note on "Social Welfare Functions" and Cardinal Utility* |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-economics-and-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-economiques-et-science-politique/article/note-on-social-welfare-functions-and-cardinal-utility/653F2AEF0D2372DDE202BC7C3B0A231F |journal=Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=195–200 |doi=10.2307/138144 |issn=0315-4890 |jstor=138144 |quote=The abandonment of Condition 3  makes it possible to formulate a procedure for arriving at a social choice. Such a procedure is described below |via= |access-date=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Hamlin |first1=Aaron |date=25 May 2015 |title=CES Podcast with Dr Arrow |url=https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181027170517/https://electology.org/podcasts/2012-10-06_kenneth_arrow |archive-date=27 October 2018 |access-date=9 March 2023 |website=Center for Election Science |publisher=CES}}</ref>  This result was first shown by the [[Marquis de Condorcet]], whose [[voting paradox]] showed the impossibility of logically-consistent [[majority rule]]; Arrow's theorem [[Generalization|generalizes]] Condorcet's findings to include non-majoritarian rules like [[collective leadership]] or [[consensus decision-making]].<ref name="plato.stanford.edu">{{cite book |title=The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy |publisher=Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University |chapter=Arrow's Theorem |chapter-url=https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/arrows-theorem/ |first=Michael |last=Morreau |date=2014-10-13}}</ref>


While the impossibility theorem shows all ranked voting rules must have spoilers, the frequency of spoilers differs dramatically by rule. [[Plurality-rule family|Plurality-rule]] methods like [[First-past-the-post voting|choose-one]] and [[Instant-runoff voting|ranked-choice (instant-runoff) voting]] are highly sensitive to spoilers,<ref name="McGann2002">{{Cite journal |last1=McGann |first1=Anthony J. |last2=Koetzle |first2=William |last3=Grofman |first3=Bernard |date=2002 |title=How an Ideologically Concentrated Minority Can Trump a Dispersed Majority: Nonmedian Voter Results for Plurality, Run-off, and Sequential Elimination Elections |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/3088418 |journal=American Journal of Political Science |volume=46 |issue=1 |pages=134–147 |doi=10.2307/3088418 |issn=0092-5853 |jstor=3088418 |quote=As with simple plurality elections, it is apparent the outcome will be highly sensitive to the distribution of candidates.|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Borgers223222">{{Cite book |last=Borgers |first=Christoph |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=u_XMHD4shnQC |title=Mathematics of Social Choice: Voting, Compensation, and Division |date=2010-01-01 |publisher=SIAM |isbn=9780898716955 |quote=Candidates C and D spoiled the election for B&nbsp;... With them in the running, A won, whereas without them in the running, B would have won.&nbsp;... Instant runoff voting&nbsp;... does ''not'' do away with the spoiler problem entirely, although it unquestionably makes it less likely to occur in practice.}}</ref> creating them even in some situations where they are not [[Condorcet cycle|mathematically necessary]] (e.g. in [[Center squeeze|center squeezes]]).<ref name="Holliday23222">{{cite journal|last1=Holliday |first1=Wesley H. |title=Stable Voting |journal=Constitutional Political Economy |date=2023-03-14 |volume=34 |number=3 |doi=10.1007/s10602-022-09383-9 |issn=1572-9966 |doi-access=free |pages=421–433 |arxiv=2108.00542 |quote=This is a kind of stability property of Condorcet winners: you cannot dislodge a Condorcet winner ''A'' by adding a new candidate ''B'' to the election if A beats B in a head-to-head majority vote. For example, although the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida did not use ranked ballots, it is plausible (see Magee 2003) that Al Gore (A) would have won without Ralph Nader (B) in the election, and Gore would have beaten Nader head-to-head. Thus, Gore should still have won with Nader included in the election. |last2=Pacuit |first2=Eric}}</ref><ref name="Campbell2000">{{cite journal |last1=Campbell |first1=D. E. |last2=Kelly |first2=J. S. |year=2000 |title=A simple characterization of majority rule |journal=[[Economic Theory (journal)|Economic Theory]] |volume=15 |issue=3 |pages=689–700 |doi=10.1007/s001990050318 |jstor=25055296 |s2cid=122290254}}</ref> In contrast, [[Condorcet method|majority-rule (Condorcet) methods]] of [[ranked voting]] uniquely [[Arrow's impossibility theorem#Minimizing|minimize the number of spoiled elections]]<ref name="Campbell2000"/> by restricting them to [[cyclic tie|voting cycle]]s,<ref name="Holliday23222"/> which are rare in ideologically-driven elections.<ref name="Gehrlein-2002">{{Cite journal |last=Gehrlein |first=William V. |date=2002-03-01 |title=Condorcet's paradox and the likelihood of its occurrence: different perspectives on balanced preferences* |url=https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015551010381 |journal=Theory and Decision |volume=52 |issue=2 |pages=171–199 |doi=10.1023/A:1015551010381 |issn=1573-7187|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="VanDeemen">{{Cite journal |last=Van Deemen |first=Adrian |date=2014-03-01 |title=On the empirical relevance of Condorcet's paradox |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0133-3 |journal=Public Choice |volume=158 |issue=3 |pages=311–330 |doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0133-3 |issn=1573-7101|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Under some [[Mathematical model|models]] of voter preferences (like the left-right spectrum assumed in the [[Black's median voter theorem|median voter theorem]]), spoilers disappear entirely for these methods.<ref name="Black-1948">{{Cite journal |last=Black |first=Duncan |date=1948 |title=On the Rationale of Group Decision-making |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1825026 |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=56 |issue=1 |pages=23–34 |doi=10.1086/256633 |jstor=1825026 |issn=0022-3808}}</ref><ref name="Black-1968">{{Cite book |last=Black |first=Duncan |author-link=Duncan Black |title=The theory of committees and elections |publisher=University Press |year=1968 |isbn=978-0-89838-189-4 |location=Cambridge, Eng.}}</ref>
While the impossibility theorem shows all ranked voting rules must have spoilers, the frequency of spoilers differs dramatically by rule. [[Plurality-rule family|Plurality-rule]] methods like [[First-past-the-post voting|choose-one]] and [[Instant-runoff voting|ranked-choice (instant-runoff) voting]] are highly sensitive to spoilers,<ref name="McGann2002">{{Cite journal |last1=McGann |first1=Anthony J. |last2=Koetzle |first2=William |last3=Grofman |first3=Bernard |date=2002 |title=How an Ideologically Concentrated Minority Can Trump a Dispersed Majority: Nonmedian Voter Results for Plurality, Run-off, and Sequential Elimination Elections |journal=American Journal of Political Science |volume=46 |issue=1 |pages=134–147 |doi=10.2307/3088418 |issn=0092-5853 |jstor=3088418 |quote=As with simple plurality elections, it is apparent the outcome will be highly sensitive to the distribution of candidates.}}</ref><ref name="Borgers223222">{{Cite book |last=Borgers |first=Christoph |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=u_XMHD4shnQC |title=Mathematics of Social Choice: Voting, Compensation, and Division |date=2010-01-01 |publisher=SIAM |isbn=978-0-89871-695-5 |quote=Candidates C and D spoiled the election for B&nbsp;... With them in the running, A won, whereas without them in the running, B would have won.&nbsp;... Instant runoff voting&nbsp;... does ''not'' do away with the spoiler problem entirely, although it unquestionably makes it less likely to occur in practice.}}</ref> creating them even in some situations where they are not [[Condorcet cycle|mathematically necessary]] (e.g. in [[Center squeeze|center squeezes]]).<ref name="Holliday23222">{{cite journal|last1=Holliday |first1=Wesley H. |title=Stable Voting |journal=Constitutional Political Economy |date=2023-03-14 |volume=34 |number=3 |doi=10.1007/s10602-022-09383-9 |issn=1572-9966 |doi-access=free |pages=421–433 |arxiv=2108.00542 |quote=This is a kind of stability property of Condorcet winners: you cannot dislodge a Condorcet winner ''A'' by adding a new candidate ''B'' to the election if A beats B in a head-to-head majority vote. For example, although the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election in Florida did not use ranked ballots, it is plausible (see Magee 2003) that Al Gore (A) would have won without Ralph Nader (B) in the election, and Gore would have beaten Nader head-to-head. Thus, Gore should still have won with Nader included in the election. |last2=Pacuit |first2=Eric}}</ref><ref name="Campbell2000">{{cite journal |last1=Campbell |first1=D. E. |last2=Kelly |first2=J. S. |year=2000 |title=A simple characterization of majority rule |journal=[[Economic Theory (journal)|Economic Theory]] |volume=15 |issue=3 |pages=689–700 |doi=10.1007/s001990050318 |jstor=25055296 |s2cid=122290254}}</ref> In contrast, [[Condorcet method|majority-rule (Condorcet) methods]] of [[ranked voting]] uniquely [[Arrow's impossibility theorem#Minimizing|minimize the number of spoiled elections]]<ref name="Campbell2000"/> by restricting them to [[cyclic tie|voting cycle]]s,<ref name="Holliday23222"/> which are rare in ideologically-driven elections.<ref name="Gehrlein-2002">{{Cite journal |last=Gehrlein |first=William V. |date=2002-03-01 |title=Condorcet's paradox and the likelihood of its occurrence: different perspectives on balanced preferences* |journal=Theory and Decision |volume=52 |issue=2 |pages=171–199 |doi=10.1023/A:1015551010381 |issn=1573-7187}}</ref><ref name="VanDeemen">{{Cite journal |last=Van Deemen |first=Adrian |date=2014-03-01 |title=On the empirical relevance of Condorcet's paradox |journal=Public Choice |volume=158 |issue=3 |pages=311–330 |doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0133-3 |issn=1573-7101}}</ref> Under some [[Mathematical model|models]] of voter preferences (like the left-right spectrum assumed in the [[Black's median voter theorem|median voter theorem]]), spoilers disappear entirely for these methods.<ref name="Black-1948">{{Cite journal |last=Black |first=Duncan |date=1948 |title=On the Rationale of Group Decision-making |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=56 |issue=1 |pages=23–34 |doi=10.1086/256633 |jstor=1825026 |issn=0022-3808}}</ref><ref name="Black-1968">{{Cite book |last=Black |first=Duncan |author-link=Duncan Black |title=The theory of committees and elections |publisher=University Press |year=1968 |isbn=978-0-89838-189-4 |location=Cambridge, Eng.}}</ref>


[[Rated voting|Rated voting rules]], where voters assign a separate grade to each candidate, are not affected by Arrow's theorem.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Ng |first=Y. K. |date=November 1971 |title=The Possibility of a Paretian Liberal: Impossibility Theorems and Cardinal Utility |url=https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/259845 |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=79 |issue=6 |pages=1397–1402 |doi=10.1086/259845 |issn=0022-3808 |quote="In the present stage of the discussion on the problem of social choice, it should be common knowledge that the General Impossibility Theorem holds because only the ordinal preferences is or can be taken into account. If the intensity of preference or cardinal utility can be known or is reflected in social choice, the paradox of social choice can be solved."|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Murray |last2=Asimakopulos |first2=A. |date=1952-05-01 |title=A Note on "Social Welfare Functions" and Cardinal Utility* |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-economics-and-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-economiques-et-science-politique/article/note-on-social-welfare-functions-and-cardinal-utility/653F2AEF0D2372DDE202BC7C3B0A231F |journal=Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=195–200 |doi=10.2307/138144 |issn=0315-4890 |jstor=138144 |quote=The abandonment of Condition 3  makes it possible to formulate a procedure for arriving at a social choice. Such a procedure is described below |via= |accessdate=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Poundstone, William.-2013232">{{Cite book |last=Poundstone, William. |title=Gaming the vote : why elections aren't fair (and what we can do about it) |date=2013 |publisher=Farrar, Straus and Giroux |isbn=9781429957649 |pages=168, 197, 234 |oclc=872601019 |quote=IRV is subject to something called the "center squeeze." A popular moderate can receive relatively few first-place votes through no fault of her own but because of vote splitting from candidates to the right and left.  [...] Approval voting thus appears to solve the problem of vote splitting simply and elegantly. [...] Range voting solves the problems of spoilers and vote splitting}}</ref> Arrow initially asserted the information provided by these systems was meaningless and therefore could not be used to prevent paradoxes, leading him to overlook them.<ref>"Modern economic theory has insisted on the ordinal concept of utility; that is, only orderings can be observed, and therefore no measurement of utility independent of these orderings has any significance. In the field of consumer's demand theory the ordinalist position turned out to create no problems; cardinal utility had no explanatory power above and beyond ordinal. Leibniz' Principle of the [[identity of indiscernibles]] demanded then the excision of cardinal utility from our thought patterns." Arrow (1967), as quoted on [https://books.google.com/books?id=7ECXDjlCpB0C&pg=PA33 p.&nbsp;33] by {{citation |last=Racnchetti |first=Fabio |title=The Active Consumer: Novelty and Surprise in Consumer Choice |volume=20 |pages=21–45 |year=2002 |editor-last=Bianchi |editor-first=Marina |series=Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy |contribution=Choice without utility? Some reflections on the loose foundations of standard consumer theory |publisher=Routledge}}</ref> However, Arrow would later describe this as a mistake,<ref name="Hamlin-interview12">{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |accessdate= |work=The Center for Election Science}} {{Pbl|'''Dr. Arrow:''' Now there’s another possible way of thinking about it, which is not included in my theorem. But we have some idea how strongly people feel. In other words, you might do something like saying each voter does not just give a ranking. But says, this is good. And this is not good[...] So this gives more information than simply what I have asked for.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Harsanyi |first=John C. |date=1979-09-01 |title=Bayesian decision theory, rule utilitarianism, and Arrow's impossibility theorem |url=https://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00126382 |journal=Theory and Decision |volume=11 |issue=3 |pages=289–317 |doi=10.1007/BF00126382 |issn=1573-7187 |quote=It is shown that the utilitarian welfare function satisfies all of Arrow's social choice postulates — avoiding the celebrated impossibility theorem by making use of information which is ''unavailable'' in Arrow's original framework. |accessdate=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref> admitting rules based on [[Cardinal utility|cardinal utilities]] (such as [[Score voting|score]] and [[approval voting]]) are not subject to his theorem.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |accessdate= |work=The Center for Election Science}}<poem>'''Dr. Arrow:''' Well, I’m a little inclined to think that score systems where you categorize in maybe three or four classes (in spite of what I said about manipulation) is probably the best.[...] And some of these studies have been made. In France, [Michel] Balinski has done some studies of this kind which seem to give some support to these scoring methods.</poem></ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |accessdate= |work=The Center for Election Science}} {{pbl|'''CES:''' Now, you mention that your theorem applies to preferential systems or ranking systems.
[[Rated voting|Rated voting rules]], where voters assign a separate grade to each candidate, are not affected by Arrow's theorem.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Ng |first=Y. K. |date=November 1971 |title=The Possibility of a Paretian Liberal: Impossibility Theorems and Cardinal Utility |url=https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/259845 |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=79 |issue=6 |pages=1397–1402 |doi=10.1086/259845 |issn=0022-3808 |quote="In the present stage of the discussion on the problem of social choice, it should be common knowledge that the General Impossibility Theorem holds because only the ordinal preferences is or can be taken into account. If the intensity of preference or cardinal utility can be known or is reflected in social choice, the paradox of social choice can be solved."|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Murray |last2=Asimakopulos |first2=A. |date=1952-05-01 |title=A Note on "Social Welfare Functions" and Cardinal Utility* |url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-economics-and-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-economiques-et-science-politique/article/note-on-social-welfare-functions-and-cardinal-utility/653F2AEF0D2372DDE202BC7C3B0A231F |journal=Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=195–200 |doi=10.2307/138144 |issn=0315-4890 |jstor=138144 |quote=The abandonment of Condition 3  makes it possible to formulate a procedure for arriving at a social choice. Such a procedure is described below |via= |access-date=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Poundstone, William.-2013232">{{Cite book |last=Poundstone, William. |title=Gaming the vote: why elections aren't fair (and what we can do about it) |date=2013 |publisher=Farrar, Straus and Giroux |isbn=978-1-4299-5764-9 |pages=168, 197, 234 |oclc=872601019 |quote=IRV is subject to something called the "center squeeze." A popular moderate can receive relatively few first-place votes through no fault of her own but because of vote splitting from candidates to the right and left.  [...] Approval voting thus appears to solve the problem of vote splitting simply and elegantly. [...] Range voting solves the problems of spoilers and vote splitting}}</ref> Arrow initially asserted the information provided by these systems was meaningless and therefore could not be used to prevent paradoxes, leading him to overlook them.<ref>"Modern economic theory has insisted on the ordinal concept of utility; that is, only orderings can be observed, and therefore no measurement of utility independent of these orderings has any significance. In the field of consumer's demand theory the ordinalist position turned out to create no problems; cardinal utility had no explanatory power above and beyond ordinal. Leibniz' Principle of the [[identity of indiscernibles]] demanded then the excision of cardinal utility from our thought patterns." Arrow (1967), as quoted on [https://books.google.com/books?id=7ECXDjlCpB0C&pg=PA33 p.&nbsp;33] by {{citation |last=Racnchetti |first=Fabio |title=The Active Consumer: Novelty and Surprise in Consumer Choice |volume=20 |pages=21–45 |year=2002 |editor-last=Bianchi |editor-first=Marina |series=Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy |contribution=Choice without utility? Some reflections on the loose foundations of standard consumer theory |publisher=Routledge}}</ref> However, Arrow would later describe this as a mistake,<ref name="Hamlin-interview12">{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |work=The Center for Election Science}} {{Pbl|'''Dr. Arrow:''' Now there's another possible way of thinking about it, which is not included in my theorem. But we have some idea how strongly people feel. In other words, you might do something like saying each voter does not just give a ranking. But says, this is good. And this is not good[...] So this gives more information than simply what I have asked for.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Harsanyi |first=John C. |date=1979-09-01 |title=Bayesian decision theory, rule utilitarianism, and Arrow's impossibility theorem |url=https://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00126382 |journal=Theory and Decision |volume=11 |issue=3 |pages=289–317 |doi=10.1007/BF00126382 |issn=1573-7187 |quote=It is shown that the utilitarian welfare function satisfies all of Arrow's social choice postulates — avoiding the celebrated impossibility theorem by making use of information which is ''unavailable'' in Arrow's original framework. |access-date=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref> admitting rules based on [[Cardinal utility|cardinal utilities]] (such as [[Score voting|score]] and [[approval voting]]) are not subject to his theorem.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |work=The Center for Election Science}}<poem>'''Dr. Arrow:''' Well, I'm a little inclined to think that score systems where you categorize in maybe three or four classes (in spite of what I said about manipulation) is probably the best.[...] And some of these studies have been made. In France, [Michel] Balinski has done some studies of this kind which seem to give some support to these scoring methods.</poem></ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |work=The Center for Election Science}} {{pbl|'''CES:''' Now, you mention that your theorem applies to preferential systems or ranking systems.
'''Dr. Arrow:''' Yes.
'''Dr. Arrow:''' Yes.
'''CES:''' But the system that you're just referring to, [[approval voting]], falls within a class called [[cardinal voting|cardinal systems]]. So not within [[ranked voting|ranking systems]].
'''CES:''' But the system that you're just referring to, [[approval voting]], falls within a class called [[cardinal voting|cardinal systems]]. So not within [[ranked voting|ranking systems]].
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== Background ==
== Background ==
{{Main|Social welfare function|Voting systems|Social choice theory}}
{{Main|Social welfare function|Voting systems|Social choice theory}}
When [[Kenneth Arrow]] proved his theorem in 1950, it inaugurated the modern field of [[social choice theory]], a branch of [[welfare economics]] studying mechanisms to aggregate [[Preference (economics)|preferences]] and [[Belief aggregation|beliefs]] across a society.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Harsanyi |first=John C. |date=1979-09-01 |title=Bayesian decision theory, rule utilitarianism, and Arrow's impossibility theorem |url=https://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00126382 |journal=Theory and Decision |volume=11 |issue=3 |pages=289–317 |doi=10.1007/BF00126382 |issn=1573-7187 |quote=It is shown that the utilitarian welfare function satisfies all of Arrow's social choice postulates — avoiding the celebrated impossibility theorem by making use of information which is ''unavailable'' in Arrow's original framework. |accessdate=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Such a mechanism of study can be a [[Market (economics)|market]], [[voting system]], [[constitution]], or even a [[Morality|moral]] or [[Ethics|ethical]] framework.<ref name="plato.stanford.edu" />
When [[Kenneth Arrow]] proved his theorem in 1950, it inaugurated the modern field of [[social choice theory]], a branch of [[welfare economics]] studying mechanisms to aggregate [[Preference (economics)|preferences]] and [[Belief aggregation|beliefs]] across a society.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Harsanyi |first=John C. |date=1979-09-01 |title=Bayesian decision theory, rule utilitarianism, and Arrow's impossibility theorem |url=https://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF00126382 |journal=Theory and Decision |volume=11 |issue=3 |pages=289–317 |doi=10.1007/BF00126382 |issn=1573-7187 |quote=It is shown that the utilitarian welfare function satisfies all of Arrow's social choice postulates — avoiding the celebrated impossibility theorem by making use of information which is ''unavailable'' in Arrow's original framework. |access-date=2020-03-20|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Such a mechanism of study can be a [[Market (economics)|market]], [[voting system]], [[constitution]], or even a [[Morality|moral]] or [[Ethics|ethical]] framework.<ref name="plato.stanford.edu" />


=== Axioms of voting systems ===
=== Axioms of voting systems ===
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==== Basic assumptions ====
==== Basic assumptions ====
Arrow's theorem assumes as background that any [[Degeneracy (mathematics)|non-degenerate]] social choice rule will satisfy:<ref name="Gibbard1973">{{Cite journal |last=Gibbard |first=Allan |date=1973 |title=Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914083 |journal=Econometrica |volume=41 |issue=4 |pages=587–601 |doi=10.2307/1914083 |jstor=1914083 |issn=0012-9682|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
Arrow's theorem assumes as background that any [[Degeneracy (mathematics)|non-degenerate]] social choice rule will satisfy:<ref name="Gibbard1973">{{Cite journal |last=Gibbard |first=Allan |date=1973 |title=Manipulation of Voting Schemes: A General Result |journal=Econometrica |volume=41 |issue=4 |pages=587–601 |doi=10.2307/1914083 |jstor=1914083 |issn=0012-9682}}</ref>


* '''''[[Unrestricted domain]]''''' – the social choice function is a [[total function]] over the domain of all possible [[Ordinal utility|orderings of outcomes]], not just a [[partial function]].
* '''''[[Unrestricted domain]]''''' – the social choice function is a [[total function]] over the domain of all possible [[Ordinal utility|orderings of outcomes]], not just a [[partial function]].
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** This weakens [[Anonymity (social choice)|''anonymity'']] ([[one vote, one value]]) to allow rules that treat voters unequally.
** This weakens [[Anonymity (social choice)|''anonymity'']] ([[one vote, one value]]) to allow rules that treat voters unequally.
** It essentially defines ''social'' choices as those depending on more than one person's input.<ref name="Arrow 1963234"/>
** It essentially defines ''social'' choices as those depending on more than one person's input.<ref name="Arrow 1963234"/>
* [[Surjective function|'''''Non-imposition''''']] – the system does not ignore the voters entirely when choosing between some pairs of candidates.<ref name="Wilson1972"/><ref name="Lagerspetz-2016">{{Citation |last=Lagerspetz |first=Eerik |title=Arrow's Theorem |date=2016 |work=Social Choice and Democratic Values |series=Studies in Choice and Welfare |pages=171–245 |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23261-4_4 |access-date=2024-07-20 |place=Cham |publisher=Springer International Publishing |language=en |doi=10.1007/978-3-319-23261-4_4 |isbn=978-3-319-23261-4|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
* [[Surjective function|'''''Non-imposition''''']] – the system does not ignore the voters entirely when choosing between some pairs of candidates.<ref name="Wilson1972"/><ref name="Lagerspetz-2016">{{Citation |last=Lagerspetz |first=Eerik |title=Arrow's Theorem |date=2016 |work=Social Choice and Democratic Values |series=Studies in Choice and Welfare |pages=171–245 |place=Cham |publisher=Springer International Publishing |language=en |doi=10.1007/978-3-319-23261-4_4 |isbn=978-3-319-23261-4}}</ref>
** In other words, it is possible for any candidate to defeat any other candidate, given some combination of votes.<ref name="Wilson1972" /><ref name="Lagerspetz-2016" /><ref name="Quesada2002">{{Cite journal |last=Quesada |first=Antonio |date=2002 |title=From social choice functions to dictatorial social welfare functions |url=https://ideas.repec.org//a/ebl/ecbull/eb-02d70006.html |journal=Economics Bulletin |volume=4 |issue=16 |pages=1–7}}</ref>
** In other words, it is possible for any candidate to defeat any other candidate, given some combination of votes.<ref name="Wilson1972" /><ref name="Lagerspetz-2016" /><ref name="Quesada2002">{{Cite journal |last=Quesada |first=Antonio |date=2002 |title=From social choice functions to dictatorial social welfare functions |url=https://ideas.repec.org//a/ebl/ecbull/eb-02d70006.html |journal=Economics Bulletin |volume=4 |issue=16 |pages=1–7}}</ref>
** This is often replaced with the stronger '''[[Pareto efficiency]]''' axiom: if every voter prefers {{math|''A''}} over {{math|''B''}}, then {{math|''A''}} should defeat {{math|''B''}}. However, the weaker non-imposition condition is sufficient.<ref name="Wilson1972" />
** This is often replaced with the stronger '''[[Pareto efficiency]]''' axiom: if every voter prefers {{math|''A''}} over {{math|''B''}}, then {{math|''A''}} should defeat {{math|''B''}}. However, the weaker non-imposition condition is sufficient.<ref name="Wilson1972" />
Arrow's original statement of the theorem included [[Positive responsiveness|non-negative responsiveness]] as a condition, i.e., that ''increasing'' the rank of an outcome should not make them ''lose''—in other words, that a voting rule shouldn't penalize a candidate for being more popular.<ref name="Arrow1950" /> However, this assumption is not needed or used in his proof (except to derive the weaker condition of Pareto efficiency), and Arrow later corrected his statement of the theorem to remove the inclusion of this condition.<ref name="Arrow 1963234"/><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Doron |first1=Gideon |last2=Kronick |first2=Richard |date=1977 |title=Single Transferrable Vote: An Example of a Perverse Social Choice Function |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/2110496 |journal=American Journal of Political Science |volume=21 |issue=2 |pages=303–311 |doi=10.2307/2110496 |jstor=2110496 |issn=0092-5853|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
Arrow's original statement of the theorem included [[Positive responsiveness|non-negative responsiveness]] as a condition, i.e., that ''increasing'' the rank of an outcome should not make them ''lose''—in other words, that a voting rule shouldn't penalize a candidate for being more popular.<ref name="Arrow1950" /> However, this assumption is not needed or used in his proof (except to derive the weaker condition of Pareto efficiency), and Arrow later corrected his statement of the theorem to remove the inclusion of this condition.<ref name="Arrow 1963234"/><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Doron |first1=Gideon |last2=Kronick |first2=Richard |date=1977 |title=Single Transferrable Vote: An Example of a Perverse Social Choice Function |journal=American Journal of Political Science |volume=21 |issue=2 |pages=303–311 |doi=10.2307/2110496 |jstor=2110496 |issn=0092-5853}}</ref>


==== Independence ====
==== Independence ====
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=== Intuitive argument ===
=== Intuitive argument ===
[[Condorcet paradox|Condorcet's example]] is already enough to see the impossibility of a fair [[Ranked voting|ranked voting system]], given stronger conditions for fairness than Arrow's theorem assumes.<ref name="McLean-1995">{{Cite journal |last=McLean |first=Iain |date=1995-10-01 |title=Independence of irrelevant alternatives before Arrow |url=https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-4896%2895%2900784-J |journal=Mathematical Social Sciences |volume=30 |issue=2 |pages=107–126 |doi=10.1016/0165-4896(95)00784-J |issn=0165-4896|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Suppose we have three candidates (<math>A</math>, <math>B</math>, and <math>C</math>) and three voters whose preferences are as follows:
[[Condorcet paradox|Condorcet's example]] is already enough to see the impossibility of a fair [[Ranked voting|ranked voting system]], given stronger conditions for fairness than Arrow's theorem assumes.<ref name="McLean-1995">{{Cite journal |last=McLean |first=Iain |date=1995-10-01 |title=Independence of irrelevant alternatives before Arrow |journal=Mathematical Social Sciences |volume=30 |issue=2 |pages=107–126 |doi=10.1016/0165-4896(95)00784-J |issn=0165-4896}}</ref> Suppose we have three candidates (<math>A</math>, <math>B</math>, and <math>C</math>) and three voters whose preferences are as follows:


{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center;"
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center;"
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# (Transitivity) If <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> is in <math>R</math> and <math>(\mathbf{b}, \mathbf{c})</math> is in <math>R</math>, then <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{c})</math> is in <math>R</math>,
# (Transitivity) If <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> is in <math>R</math> and <math>(\mathbf{b}, \mathbf{c})</math> is in <math>R</math>, then <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{c})</math> is in <math>R</math>,
# (Completeness) At least one of <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> or <math>(\mathbf{b}, \mathbf{a})</math> must be in <math>R</math>.
# (Completeness) At least one of <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> or <math>(\mathbf{b}, \mathbf{a})</math> must be in <math>R</math>.
The element <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> being in <math>R</math> is interpreted to mean that alternative <math>\mathbf{a}</math> is preferred to alternative <math>\mathbf{b}</math>. This situation is often denoted <math>\mathbf{a} \succ \mathbf{b}</math> or <math>\mathbf{a}R\mathbf{b}</math>. Denote the set of all preferences on <math>A</math> by <math>\Pi(A)</math>. Let <math>N</math> be a positive integer. An [[Ranked voting|''ordinal (ranked)'']] ''social welfare function'' is a function<ref name="Arrow1950"/>
The element <math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> being in <math>R</math> is interpreted to mean that alternative <math>\mathbf{a}</math> is preferred to or indifferent to alternative <math>\mathbf{b}</math>. This situation is often denoted <math>\mathbf{a} \succsim \mathbf{b}</math> or <math>\mathbf{a}R\mathbf{b}</math>.
The symmetric part of <math>R</math> yields the indifference relation <math>I</math>. This is written as <math>\mathbf{a} \sim \mathbf{b}</math> or <math>\mathbf{a} I \mathbf{b} </math> if and only if 
<math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> and <math>(\mathbf{b}, \mathbf{a})</math> are both in <math>R</math>.
The asymmetric part of <math>R</math> yields the (strict) preference relation <math>P</math>. This is written as
<math>\mathbf{a} \succ \mathbf{b}</math> or <math>\mathbf{a} P \mathbf{b} </math> if and only if
<math>(\mathbf{a}, \mathbf{b})</math> is in <math>R</math> and <math>(\mathbf{b}, \mathbf{a})</math> is not in <math>R</math>. In the following, preference of one alternative over another denotes strict preference.
 
Denote the set of all preferences on <math>A</math> by <math>\Pi(A)</math>. Equivalently, <math>\Pi(A)</math> is the set of rankings of the alternatives in <math>A</math> from top to bottom, with ties allowed. Let <math>N</math> be a positive integer. An [[Ranked voting|''ordinal (ranked)'']] ''social welfare function'' is a function<ref name="Arrow1950"/>
: <math> \mathrm{F} : \Pi(A)^N \to \Pi(A) </math>
: <math> \mathrm{F} : \Pi(A)^N \to \Pi(A) </math>
which aggregates voters' preferences into a single preference on <math>A</math>. An <math>N</math>-[[tuple]] <math>(R_1, \ldots, R_N) \in \Pi(A)^N</math> of voters' preferences is called a ''preference profile''.
which aggregates voters' preferences into a single preference on <math>A</math>. An <math>N</math>-[[tuple]] <math>(R_1, \ldots, R_N) \in \Pi(A)^N</math> of voters' preferences is called a ''preference profile''.
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The first set of methods studied by economists are the [[Condorcet methods|majority-rule, or ''Condorcet'', methods]]. These rules limit spoilers to situations where majority rule is self-contradictory, called [[Condorcet cycle]]s, and as a result uniquely minimize the possibility of a spoiler effect among ranked rules. (Indeed, many different social welfare functions can meet Arrow's conditions under such restrictions of the domain. It has been proven, however, that under any such restriction, if there exists any social welfare function that adheres to Arrow's criteria, then [[Majority rule|Condorcet method]] will adhere to Arrow's criteria.<ref name="Campbell2000"/>) Condorcet believed voting rules should satisfy both independence of irrelevant alternatives and the [[Condorcet winner criterion|majority rule principle]], i.e. if most voters rank ''Alice'' ahead of ''Bob'', ''Alice'' should defeat ''Bob'' in the election.<ref name="McLean-1995"/>
The first set of methods studied by economists are the [[Condorcet methods|majority-rule, or ''Condorcet'', methods]]. These rules limit spoilers to situations where majority rule is self-contradictory, called [[Condorcet cycle]]s, and as a result uniquely minimize the possibility of a spoiler effect among ranked rules. (Indeed, many different social welfare functions can meet Arrow's conditions under such restrictions of the domain. It has been proven, however, that under any such restriction, if there exists any social welfare function that adheres to Arrow's criteria, then [[Majority rule|Condorcet method]] will adhere to Arrow's criteria.<ref name="Campbell2000"/>) Condorcet believed voting rules should satisfy both independence of irrelevant alternatives and the [[Condorcet winner criterion|majority rule principle]], i.e. if most voters rank ''Alice'' ahead of ''Bob'', ''Alice'' should defeat ''Bob'' in the election.<ref name="McLean-1995"/>


Unfortunately, as Condorcet proved, this rule can be intransitive on some preference profiles.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Gehrlein |first=William V. |date=1983-06-01 |title=Condorcet's paradox |url=https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143070 |journal=Theory and Decision |language=en |volume=15 |issue=2 |pages=161–197 |doi=10.1007/BF00143070 |issn=1573-7187|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Thus, Condorcet proved a weaker form of Arrow's impossibility theorem long before Arrow, under the stronger assumption that a voting system in the two-candidate case will agree with a simple majority vote.<ref name="McLean-1995" />
Unfortunately, as Condorcet proved, this rule can be intransitive on some preference profiles.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Gehrlein |first=William V. |date=1983-06-01 |title=Condorcet's paradox |journal=Theory and Decision |language=en |volume=15 |issue=2 |pages=161–197 |doi=10.1007/BF00143070 |issn=1573-7187}}</ref> Thus, Condorcet proved a weaker form of Arrow's impossibility theorem long before Arrow, under the stronger assumption that a voting system in the two-candidate case will agree with a simple majority vote.<ref name="McLean-1995" />


Unlike pluralitarian rules such as [[Instant-runoff voting|ranked-choice runoff (RCV)]] or [[first-preference plurality]],<ref name="McGann2002"/> [[Condorcet method]]s avoid the spoiler effect in non-cyclic elections, where candidates can be chosen by majority rule. Political scientists have found such cycles to be fairly rare, suggesting they may be of limited practical concern.<ref name="VanDeemen" /> [[Spatial model of voting|Spatial voting models]] also suggest such paradoxes are likely to be infrequent<ref name="Wolk-2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Wolk |first1=Sara |last2=Quinn |first2=Jameson |last3=Ogren |first3=Marcus |date=2023-09-01 |title=STAR Voting, equality of voice, and voter satisfaction: considerations for voting method reform |journal=Constitutional Political Economy |volume=34 |issue=3 |pages=310–334 |doi=10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 |issn=1572-9966|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Gehrlein-2002"/> or even non-existent.<ref name="Black-1948" />
Unlike pluralitarian rules such as [[Instant-runoff voting|ranked-choice runoff (RCV)]] or [[first-preference plurality]],<ref name="McGann2002"/> [[Condorcet method]]s avoid the spoiler effect in non-cyclic elections, where candidates can be chosen by majority rule. Political scientists have found such cycles to be fairly rare, suggesting they may be of limited practical concern.<ref name="VanDeemen" /> [[Spatial model of voting|Spatial voting models]] also suggest such paradoxes are likely to be infrequent<ref name="Wolk-2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Wolk |first1=Sara |last2=Quinn |first2=Jameson |last3=Ogren |first3=Marcus |date=2023-09-01 |title=STAR Voting, equality of voice, and voter satisfaction: considerations for voting method reform |journal=Constitutional Political Economy |volume=34 |issue=3 |pages=310–334 |doi=10.1007/s10602-022-09389-3 |issn=1572-9966|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Gehrlein-2002"/> or even non-existent.<ref name="Black-1948" />
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More formally, Black's theorem assumes preferences are ''single-peaked'': a voter's happiness with a candidate goes up and then down as the candidate moves along some spectrum. For example, in a group of friends choosing a volume setting for music, each friend would likely have their own ideal volume; as the volume gets progressively too loud or too quiet, they would be increasingly dissatisfied. If the domain is restricted to profiles where every individual has a single-peaked preference with respect to the linear ordering, then social preferences are acyclic. In this situation, Condorcet methods satisfy a wide variety of highly-desirable properties, including being fully spoilerproof.<ref name="Black-1948" /><ref name="Black-1968"/><ref name="Campbell2000"/>
More formally, Black's theorem assumes preferences are ''single-peaked'': a voter's happiness with a candidate goes up and then down as the candidate moves along some spectrum. For example, in a group of friends choosing a volume setting for music, each friend would likely have their own ideal volume; as the volume gets progressively too loud or too quiet, they would be increasingly dissatisfied. If the domain is restricted to profiles where every individual has a single-peaked preference with respect to the linear ordering, then social preferences are acyclic. In this situation, Condorcet methods satisfy a wide variety of highly-desirable properties, including being fully spoilerproof.<ref name="Black-1948" /><ref name="Black-1968"/><ref name="Campbell2000"/>


The rule does not fully generalize from the political spectrum to the political compass, a result related to the [[McKelvey-Schofield chaos theorem]].<ref name="Black-1948" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=McKelvey |first1=Richard D. |author-link=Richard McKelvey |year=1976 |title=Intransitivities in multidimensional voting models and some implications for agenda control |journal=Journal of Economic Theory |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=472–482 |doi=10.1016/0022-0531(76)90040-5}}</ref> However, a well-defined Condorcet winner does exist if the [[Probability distribution|distribution]] of voters is [[Rotational symmetry|rotationally symmetric]] or otherwise has a [[Omnidirectional median|uniquely-defined median]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Davis |first1=Otto A. |last2=DeGroot |first2=Morris H. |last3=Hinich |first3=Melvin J. |date=1972 |title=Social Preference Orderings and Majority Rule |url=http://www.jstor.org/stable/1909727 |journal=Econometrica |volume=40 |issue=1 |pages=147–157 |doi=10.2307/1909727 |jstor=1909727 |issn=0012-9682|url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="dotti2">{{Cite thesis |title=Multidimensional voting models: theory and applications |url=https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1516004/ |publisher=UCL (University College London) |date=2016-09-28 |degree=Doctoral |first=V. |last=Dotti}}</ref> In most realistic situations, where voters' opinions follow a roughly-[[normal distribution]] or can be accurately summarized by one or two dimensions, Condorcet cycles are rare (though not unheard of).<ref name="Wolk-2023" /><ref name="Holliday23222"/>
The rule does not fully generalize from the political spectrum to the political compass, a result related to the [[McKelvey-Schofield chaos theorem]].<ref name="Black-1948" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=McKelvey |first1=Richard D. |author-link=Richard McKelvey |year=1976 |title=Intransitivities in multidimensional voting models and some implications for agenda control |journal=Journal of Economic Theory |volume=12 |issue=3 |pages=472–482 |doi=10.1016/0022-0531(76)90040-5}}</ref> However, a well-defined Condorcet winner does exist if the [[Probability distribution|distribution]] of voters is [[Rotational symmetry|rotationally symmetric]] or otherwise has a [[Omnidirectional median|uniquely-defined median]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Davis |first1=Otto A. |last2=DeGroot |first2=Morris H. |last3=Hinich |first3=Melvin J. |date=1972 |title=Social Preference Orderings and Majority Rule |journal=Econometrica |volume=40 |issue=1 |pages=147–157 |doi=10.2307/1909727 |jstor=1909727 |issn=0012-9682}}</ref><ref name="dotti2">{{Cite thesis |title=Multidimensional voting models: theory and applications |url=https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1516004/ |publisher=UCL (University College London) |date=2016-09-28 |degree=Doctoral |first=V. |last=Dotti}}</ref> In most realistic situations, where voters' opinions follow a roughly-[[normal distribution]] or can be accurately summarized by one or two dimensions, Condorcet cycles are rare (though not unheard of).<ref name="Wolk-2023" /><ref name="Holliday23222"/>


==== Generalized stability theorems ====
==== Generalized stability theorems ====
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Holliday and Pacuit devised a voting system that provably minimizes the number of candidates who are capable of spoiling an election, albeit at the cost of occasionally failing [[Monotonicity criterion|vote positivity]] (though at a much lower rate than seen in [[instant-runoff voting]]).<ref name="Holliday23222"/>{{clarify|reason=Needs a quote saying what is claimed, for instance how it has fewer spoilers than other Smith methods.|date=November 2024}}
Holliday and Pacuit devised a voting system that provably minimizes the number of candidates who are capable of spoiling an election, albeit at the cost of occasionally failing [[Monotonicity criterion|vote positivity]] (though at a much lower rate than seen in [[instant-runoff voting]]).<ref name="Holliday23222"/>{{clarify|reason=Needs a quote saying what is claimed, for instance how it has fewer spoilers than other Smith methods.|date=November 2024}}


=== Going beyond Arrow's theorem: Rated social choice ===
=== Rated social choice ===
{{main|Spoiler effect}}
{{main|Spoiler effect}}
As shown above, the proof of Arrow's theorem relies crucially on the assumption of [[ranked voting]], and is not applicable to [[Graded voting|rated voting systems]]. These systems ask voters to rate candidates on a numerical scale (e.g. from 0–10), and then elect the candidate with the highest average (for score voting) or median ([[graduated majority judgment]]).<ref name=":mj2">{{cite book |last1=Balinski |first1=M. L. |title=Majority judgment: measuring, ranking, and electing |last2=Laraki |first2=Rida |date=2010 |publisher=MIT Press |isbn=9780262545716 |location=Cambridge, Mass}}</ref>{{rp|4–5}} This opens up the possibility of finding another social choice procedure that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives.<ref name="ns12222">{{cite journal |last=McKenna |first=Phil |date=12 April 2008 |title=Vote of no confidence |url=http://rangevoting.org/McKennaText.txt |journal=New Scientist |volume=198 |issue=2651 |pages=30–33 |doi=10.1016/S0262-4079(08)60914-8}}</ref> Arrow's theorem can thus be considered a special case of [[Harsanyi's utilitarian theorem]] and other [[utility representation theorem]]s like the [[Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem|VNM theorem]], which show [[Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)|rational behavior]] requires consistent [[Cardinal utility|cardinal utilities]].<ref name="VNM2">[[John von Neumann|Neumann, John von]] and [[Oskar Morgenstern|Morgenstern, Oskar]], ''[[Theory of Games and Economic Behavior]]''. Princeton, NJ. Princeton University Press, 1953.</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Harsanyi |first=John C. |date=1955 |title=Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=63 |issue=4 |pages=309–321 |doi=10.1086/257678 |jstor=1827128 |s2cid=222434288}}</ref>
As shown above, the proof of Arrow's theorem relies crucially on the assumption of [[ranked voting]], and is not applicable to [[Graded voting|rated voting systems]]. These systems ask voters to rate candidates on a numerical scale (e.g. from 0–10), and then elect the candidate with the highest average (for score voting) or median ([[graduated majority judgment]]).<ref name=":mj2">{{cite book |last1=Balinski |first1=M. L. |title=Majority judgment: measuring, ranking, and electing |last2=Laraki |first2=Rida |date=2010 |publisher=MIT Press |isbn=978-0-262-54571-6 |location=Cambridge, Mass}}</ref>{{rp|4–5}} This opens up the possibility of finding another social choice procedure that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives.<ref name="ns12222">{{cite journal |last=McKenna |first=Phil |date=12 April 2008 |title=Vote of no confidence |url=http://rangevoting.org/McKennaText.txt |journal=New Scientist |volume=198 |issue=2651 |pages=30–33 |doi=10.1016/S0262-4079(08)60914-8}}</ref> Arrow's theorem can thus be considered a special case of [[Harsanyi's utilitarian theorem]] and other [[utility representation theorem]]s like the [[Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem|VNM theorem]], which show [[Coherence (philosophical gambling strategy)|rational behavior]] requires consistent [[Cardinal utility|cardinal utilities]].<ref name="VNM2">[[John von Neumann|Neumann, John von]] and [[Oskar Morgenstern|Morgenstern, Oskar]], ''[[Theory of Games and Economic Behavior]]''. Princeton, NJ. Princeton University Press, 1953.</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Harsanyi |first=John C. |date=1955 |title=Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility |journal=Journal of Political Economy |volume=63 |issue=4 |pages=309–321 |doi=10.1086/257678 |jstor=1827128 |s2cid=222434288}}</ref>


While Arrow's theorem does not apply to graded systems, [[Gibbard's theorem]] still does: no voting game can be [[Dominant strategy|straightforward]] (i.e. have a single, clear, always-best strategy).<ref>{{Cite book |last=Poundstone |first=William |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=hbxL3A-pWagC&q=%22gibbard%22%20%22utilitarian%20voting%22&pg=PA185 |title=Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Are not Fair (and What We Can Do About It) |date=2009-02-17 |publisher=Macmillan |isbn=9780809048922}}</ref>
While Arrow's theorem does not apply to graded systems, [[Gibbard's theorem]] still does: no voting game can be [[Dominant strategy|straightforward]] (i.e. have a single, clear, always-best strategy).<ref>{{Cite book |last=Poundstone |first=William |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=hbxL3A-pWagC&q=%22gibbard%22%20%22utilitarian%20voting%22&pg=PA185 |title=Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Are not Fair (and What We Can Do About It) |date=2009-02-17 |publisher=Macmillan |isbn=978-0-8090-4892-2}}</ref>


==== {{Anchor|Meaning|Cardinal|Validity|Meaningfulness}}Meaningfulness of cardinal information ====
==== {{Anchor|Meaning|Cardinal|Validity|Meaningfulness}}Meaningfulness of cardinal information ====
{{Main|Cardinal utility}}
{{Main|Cardinal utility}}
Arrow's framework assumed individual and social preferences are [[Ordinal utility|orderings]] or [[Ranked voting|rankings]], i.e. statements about which outcomes are better or worse than others.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Lützen |first=Jesper |date=2019-02-01 |title=How mathematical impossibility changed welfare economics: A history of Arrow's impossibility theorem |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0315086018300508 |journal=Historia Mathematica |volume=46 |pages=56–87 |doi=10.1016/j.hm.2018.11.001 |issn=0315-0860}}</ref> Taking inspiration from the [[Behaviorism|behavioralist]] approach, some philosophers and economists rejected the idea of comparing internal human experiences of [[Cardinal utility|well-being]].<ref name="Racnchetti-2002">"Modern economic theory has insisted on the ordinal concept of utility; that is, only orderings can be observed, and therefore no measurement of utility independent of these orderings has any significance. In the field of consumer's demand theory the ordinalist position turned out to create no problems; cardinal utility had no explanatory power above and beyond ordinal. Leibniz' Principle of the [[identity of indiscernibles]] demanded then the excision of cardinal utility from our thought patterns." Arrow (1967), as quoted on [https://books.google.com/books?id=7ECXDjlCpB0C&pg=PA33 p.&nbsp;33] by {{citation |last=Racnchetti |first=Fabio |title=The Active Consumer: Novelty and Surprise in Consumer Choice |volume=20 |pages=21–45 |year=2002 |editor-last=Bianchi |editor-first=Marina |series=Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy |contribution=Choice without utility? Some reflections on the loose foundations of standard consumer theory |publisher=Routledge}}</ref><ref name="Pearce" /> Such philosophers claimed it was impossible to compare the strength of preferences across people who disagreed; [[Amartya Sen|Sen]] gives as an example that it would be impossible to know whether the [[Great Fire of Rome]] was good or bad, because despite killing thousands of Romans, it had the positive effect of letting [[Nero]] expand his palace.<ref name="The Possibility of Social Choice2">{{cite journal |last1=Sen |first1=Amartya |date=1999 |title=The Possibility of Social Choice |url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.3.349 |journal=American Economic Review |volume=89 |issue=3 |pages=349–378 |doi=10.1257/aer.89.3.349}}</ref>
Arrow's framework assumed individual and social preferences are [[Ordinal utility|orderings]] or [[Ranked voting|rankings]], i.e. statements about which outcomes are better or worse than others.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last=Lützen |first=Jesper |date=2019-02-01 |title=How mathematical impossibility changed welfare economics: A history of Arrow's impossibility theorem |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0315086018300508 |journal=Historia Mathematica |volume=46 |pages=56–87 |doi=10.1016/j.hm.2018.11.001 |issn=0315-0860|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Taking inspiration from the [[Behaviorism|behavioralist]] approach, some philosophers and economists rejected the idea of comparing internal human experiences of [[Cardinal utility|well-being]].<ref name="Racnchetti-2002">"Modern economic theory has insisted on the ordinal concept of utility; that is, only orderings can be observed, and therefore no measurement of utility independent of these orderings has any significance. In the field of consumer's demand theory the ordinalist position turned out to create no problems; cardinal utility had no explanatory power above and beyond ordinal. Leibniz' Principle of the [[identity of indiscernibles]] demanded then the excision of cardinal utility from our thought patterns." Arrow (1967), as quoted on [https://books.google.com/books?id=7ECXDjlCpB0C&pg=PA33 p.&nbsp;33] by {{citation |last=Racnchetti |first=Fabio |title=The Active Consumer: Novelty and Surprise in Consumer Choice |volume=20 |pages=21–45 |year=2002 |editor-last=Bianchi |editor-first=Marina |series=Routledge Frontiers of Political Economy |contribution=Choice without utility? Some reflections on the loose foundations of standard consumer theory |publisher=Routledge}}</ref><ref name="Pearce" /> Such philosophers claimed it was impossible to compare the strength of preferences across people who disagreed; [[Amartya Sen|Sen]] gives as an example that it would be impossible to know whether the [[Great Fire of Rome]] was good or bad, because despite killing thousands of Romans, it had the positive effect of letting [[Nero]] expand his palace.<ref name="The Possibility of Social Choice2">{{cite journal |last1=Sen |first1=Amartya |date=1999 |title=The Possibility of Social Choice |url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.3.349 |journal=American Economic Review |volume=89 |issue=3 |pages=349–378 |doi=10.1257/aer.89.3.349}}</ref>


Arrow originally agreed with these position, rejecting the meaningfulness of [[cardinal utility|cardinal utilities]],<ref name="Arrow 1963234" /><ref name="Racnchetti-2002" /> thus interpreting his theorem as a kind of proof for [[nihilism]] or [[egoism]].<ref name="Pearce" /><ref name=":0" /> However, he later stated that cardinal methods can provide additional useful information, and that his theorem is not applicable to them.<ref name="Hamlin-interview1">{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |accessdate= |work=The Center for Election Science}} {{Pbl|'''Dr. Arrow:''' Now there’s another possible way of thinking about it, which is not included in my theorem. But we have some idea how strongly people feel. In other words, you might do something like saying each voter does not just give a ranking. But says, this is good. And this is not good[...] So this gives more information than simply what I have asked for.}}</ref><ref name="Arrow">Arrow, Kenneth et al. 1993. ''Report of the NOAA panel on Contingent Valuation.''</ref> Similarly, [[Amartya Sen]] first claimed interpersonal comparability is necessary for IIA, but later came to argue in favor of cardinal methods for assessing social choice, arguing they would only require "rather limited levels of partial comparability" to hold in practice.<ref name="The Possibility of Social Choice22">{{cite journal |last1=Sen |first1=Amartya |date=1999 |title=The Possibility of Social Choice |url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.3.349 |journal=American Economic Review |volume=89 |issue=3 |pages=349–378 |doi=10.1257/aer.89.3.349}}</ref>
Arrow originally agreed with these position, rejecting the meaningfulness of [[cardinal utility|cardinal utilities]],<ref name="Arrow 1963234" /><ref name="Racnchetti-2002" /> thus interpreting his theorem as a kind of proof for [[nihilism]] or [[egoism]].<ref name="Pearce" /><ref name=":0" /> However, he later stated that cardinal methods can provide additional useful information, and that his theorem is not applicable to them.<ref name="Hamlin-interview1">{{Cite web |last=Hamlin |first=Aaron |date=2012-10-06 |title=Podcast 2012-10-06: Interview with Nobel Laureate Dr. Kenneth Arrow |url=https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230605225834/https://electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/voting-theory-podcast-2012-10-06-interview-with-nobel-laureate-dr-kenneth-arrow/ |archive-date=2023-06-05 |work=The Center for Election Science}} {{Pbl|'''Dr. Arrow:''' Now there's another possible way of thinking about it, which is not included in my theorem. But we have some idea how strongly people feel. In other words, you might do something like saying each voter does not just give a ranking. But says, this is good. And this is not good[...] So this gives more information than simply what I have asked for.}}</ref><ref name="Arrow">Arrow, Kenneth et al. 1993. ''Report of the NOAA panel on Contingent Valuation.''</ref> Similarly, [[Amartya Sen]] first claimed interpersonal comparability is necessary for IIA, but later came to argue in favor of cardinal methods for assessing social choice, arguing they would only require "rather limited levels of partial comparability" to hold in practice.<ref name="The Possibility of Social Choice22">{{cite journal |last1=Sen |first1=Amartya |date=1999 |title=The Possibility of Social Choice |url=https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.3.349 |journal=American Economic Review |volume=89 |issue=3 |pages=349–378 |doi=10.1257/aer.89.3.349}}</ref>


Other scholars have noted that interpersonal comparisons of utility are not unique to cardinal voting, but are instead a necessity of any non-[[Dictatorship mechanism|dictatorial]] choice procedure, with cardinal voting rules making these comparisons explicit. [[David Pearce (economist)|David Pearce]] identified Arrow's original nihilist interpretation with a kind of [[Begging the question|circular reasoning]],<ref name=":142">{{Cite journal |last=Pearce |first=David |title=Individual and social welfare: a Bayesian perspective |url=https://economia.uc.cl/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Individual-and-Social-Welfare-A-Bayesian-Perspective-1-2.pdf |journal=Frisch Lecture Delivered to the World Congress of the Econometric Society}}</ref> with Hildreth pointing out that "any procedure that extends the partial ordering of {{bracket|[[Pareto efficiency]]}} must involve interpersonal comparisons of utility."<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Hildreth |first=Clifford |date=1953 |title=Alternative Conditions for Social Orderings |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1906944 |journal=Econometrica |volume=21 |issue=1 |pages=81–94 |doi=10.2307/1906944 |issn=0012-9682 |jstor=1906944|url-access=subscription }}</ref> Similar observations have led to [[implicit utilitarian voting]] approaches, which attempt to make the assumptions of ranked procedures more explicit by modeling them as approximations of the [[utilitarian rule]] (or [[score voting]]).<ref name=":122">{{cite book |last1=Procaccia |first1=Ariel D. |title=Cooperative Information Agents X |last2=Rosenschein |first2=Jeffrey S. |year=2006 |isbn=978-3-540-38569-1 |series=Lecture Notes in Computer Science |volume=4149 |pages=317–331 |chapter=The Distortion of Cardinal Preferences in Voting |citeseerx=10.1.1.113.2486 |doi=10.1007/11839354_23}}</ref>
Other scholars have noted that interpersonal comparisons of utility are not unique to cardinal voting, but are instead a necessity of any non-[[Dictatorship mechanism|dictatorial]] choice procedure, with cardinal voting rules making these comparisons explicit. [[David Pearce (economist)|David Pearce]] identified Arrow's original nihilist interpretation with a kind of [[Begging the question|circular reasoning]],<ref name=":142">{{Cite journal |last=Pearce |first=David |title=Individual and social welfare: a Bayesian perspective |url=https://economia.uc.cl/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Individual-and-Social-Welfare-A-Bayesian-Perspective-1-2.pdf |journal=Frisch Lecture Delivered to the World Congress of the Econometric Society}}</ref> with Hildreth pointing out that "any procedure that extends the partial ordering of {{bracket|[[Pareto efficiency]]}} must involve interpersonal comparisons of utility."<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Hildreth |first=Clifford |date=1953 |title=Alternative Conditions for Social Orderings |journal=Econometrica |volume=21 |issue=1 |pages=81–94 |doi=10.2307/1906944 |issn=0012-9682 |jstor=1906944}}</ref> Similar observations have led to [[implicit utilitarian voting]] approaches, which attempt to make the assumptions of ranked procedures more explicit by modeling them as approximations of the [[utilitarian rule]] (or [[score voting]]).<ref name=":122">{{cite book |last1=Procaccia |first1=Ariel D. |title=Cooperative Information Agents X |last2=Rosenschein |first2=Jeffrey S. |year=2006 |isbn=978-3-540-38569-1 |series=Lecture Notes in Computer Science |volume=4149 |pages=317–331 |chapter=The Distortion of Cardinal Preferences in Voting |citeseerx=10.1.1.113.2486 |doi=10.1007/11839354_23}}</ref>


In [[psychometrics]], there is a general consensus that self-reported ratings (e.g. [[Likert scale|Likert scales]]) are meaningful and provide more information than pure rankings, as well as showing higher [[Validity (statistics)|validity]] and [[Reliability (statistics)|reliability]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Maio |first1=Gregory R. |last2=Roese |first2=Neal J. |last3=Seligman |first3=Clive |last4=Katz |first4=Albert |date=1 June 1996 |title=Rankings, Ratings, and the Measurement of Values: Evidence for the Superior Validity of Ratings |journal=Basic and Applied Social Psychology |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=171–181 |doi=10.1207/s15324834basp1802_4 |issn=0197-3533 |quote=Many value researchers have assumed that rankings of values are more valid than ratings of values because rankings force participants to differentiate more incisively between similarly regarded values ... Results indicated that ratings tended to evidence greater validity than rankings within moderate and low-differentiating participants. In addition, the validity of ratings was greater than rankings overall.}}</ref> Cardinal [[Rating scale|rating scales]] (e.g. [[Likert scale|Likert scales]]) provide more information than rankings alone.<ref name=":032">{{Cite journal |last1=Maio |first1=Gregory R. |last2=Roese |first2=Neal J. |last3=Seligman |first3=Clive |last4=Katz |first4=Albert |date=1 June 1996 |title=Rankings, Ratings, and the Measurement of Values: Evidence for the Superior Validity of Ratings |journal=Basic and Applied Social Psychology |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=171–181 |doi=10.1207/s15324834basp1802_4 |issn=0197-3533 |quote=Many value researchers have assumed that rankings of values are more valid than ratings of values because rankings force participants to differentiate more incisively between similarly regarded values ... Results indicated that ratings tended to evidence greater validity than rankings within moderate and low-differentiating participants. In addition, the validity of ratings was greater than rankings overall.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Conklin |first1=E. S. |last2=Sutherland |first2=J. W. |date=1 February 1923 |title=A Comparison of the Scale of Values Method with the Order-of-Merit Method. |url=http://content.apa.org/journals/xge/6/1/44 |journal=Journal of Experimental Psychology |language=en |volume=6 |issue=1 |pages=44–57 |doi=10.1037/h0074763 |issn=0022-1015 |quote=the scale-of-values method can be used for approximately the same purposes as the order-of-merit method, but that the scale-of-values method is a better means of obtaining a record of judgments}}</ref> A review by Kaiser and Oswald found that ratings were more predictive of important decisions (such as international migration and divorce) than even standard [[socioeconomic]] predictors like income and demographics,<ref name=":feelings222">{{cite journal |last1=Kaiser |first1=Caspar |last2=Oswald |first2=Andrew J. |date=18 October 2022 |title=The scientific value of numerical measures of human feelings |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |volume=119 |issue=42 |pages=e2210412119 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11910412K |doi=10.1073/pnas.2210412119 |issn=0027-8424 |pmc=9586273 |pmid=36191179 |doi-access=free}}</ref> writing that "this feelings-to-actions relationship takes a generic form, is consistently replicable, and is fairly close to linear in structure. Therefore, it seems that human beings can successfully operationalize an integer scale for feelings".<ref name=":feelings222" />
In [[psychometrics]], there is a general consensus that self-reported ratings (e.g. [[Likert scale|Likert scales]]) are meaningful and provide more information than pure rankings, as well as showing higher [[Validity (statistics)|validity]] and [[Reliability (statistics)|reliability]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Maio |first1=Gregory R. |last2=Roese |first2=Neal J. |last3=Seligman |first3=Clive |last4=Katz |first4=Albert |date=1 June 1996 |title=Rankings, Ratings, and the Measurement of Values: Evidence for the Superior Validity of Ratings |journal=Basic and Applied Social Psychology |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=171–181 |doi=10.1207/s15324834basp1802_4 |issn=0197-3533 |quote=Many value researchers have assumed that rankings of values are more valid than ratings of values because rankings force participants to differentiate more incisively between similarly regarded values ... Results indicated that ratings tended to evidence greater validity than rankings within moderate and low-differentiating participants. In addition, the validity of ratings was greater than rankings overall.}}</ref> Cardinal [[Rating scale|rating scales]] (e.g. [[Likert scale|Likert scales]]) provide more information than rankings alone.<ref name=":032">{{Cite journal |last1=Maio |first1=Gregory R. |last2=Roese |first2=Neal J. |last3=Seligman |first3=Clive |last4=Katz |first4=Albert |date=1 June 1996 |title=Rankings, Ratings, and the Measurement of Values: Evidence for the Superior Validity of Ratings |journal=Basic and Applied Social Psychology |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=171–181 |doi=10.1207/s15324834basp1802_4 |issn=0197-3533 |quote=Many value researchers have assumed that rankings of values are more valid than ratings of values because rankings force participants to differentiate more incisively between similarly regarded values ... Results indicated that ratings tended to evidence greater validity than rankings within moderate and low-differentiating participants. In addition, the validity of ratings was greater than rankings overall.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Conklin |first1=E. S. |last2=Sutherland |first2=J. W. |date=1 February 1923 |title=A Comparison of the Scale of Values Method with the Order-of-Merit Method. |url=http://content.apa.org/journals/xge/6/1/44 |journal=Journal of Experimental Psychology |language=en |volume=6 |issue=1 |pages=44–57 |doi=10.1037/h0074763 |issn=0022-1015 |quote=the scale-of-values method can be used for approximately the same purposes as the order-of-merit method, but that the scale-of-values method is a better means of obtaining a record of judgments}}</ref> A review by Kaiser and Oswald found that ratings were more predictive of important decisions (such as international migration and divorce) than even standard [[socioeconomic]] predictors like income and demographics,<ref name=":feelings222">{{cite journal |last1=Kaiser |first1=Caspar |last2=Oswald |first2=Andrew J. |date=18 October 2022 |title=The scientific value of numerical measures of human feelings |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |volume=119 |issue=42 |article-number=e2210412119 |bibcode=2022PNAS..11910412K |doi=10.1073/pnas.2210412119 |issn=0027-8424 |pmc=9586273 |pmid=36191179 |doi-access=free}}</ref> writing that "this feelings-to-actions relationship takes a generic form, is consistently replicable, and is fairly close to linear in structure. Therefore, it seems that human beings can successfully operationalize an integer scale for feelings".<ref name=":feelings222" />


==== Nonstandard spoilers ====
==== Nonstandard spoilers ====
Line 249: Line 256:


==== Supermajority rules ====
==== Supermajority rules ====
[[Supermajority]] rules can avoid Arrow's theorem at the cost of being poorly-decisive (i.e. frequently failing to return a result). In this case, a threshold that requires a <math>2/3</math> majority for ordering 3 outcomes, <math>3/4</math> for 4, etc. does not produce [[voting paradox]]es.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Moulin |first=Hervé |date=1985-02-01 |title=From social welfare ordering to acyclic aggregation of preferences |url=https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-4896%2885%2990002-2 |journal=Mathematical Social Sciences |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=1–17 |doi=10.1016/0165-4896(85)90002-2 |issn=0165-4896|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
[[Supermajority]] rules can avoid Arrow's theorem at the cost of being poorly-decisive (i.e. frequently failing to return a result). In this case, a threshold that requires a <math>2/3</math> majority for ordering 3 outcomes, <math>3/4</math> for 4, etc. does not produce [[voting paradox]]es.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Moulin |first=Hervé |date=1985-02-01 |title=From social welfare ordering to acyclic aggregation of preferences |journal=Mathematical Social Sciences |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=1–17 |doi=10.1016/0165-4896(85)90002-2 |issn=0165-4896}}</ref>


In [[Spatial model of voting|spatial (n-dimensional ideology) models of voting]], this can be relaxed to require only <math>1-e^{-1}</math> (roughly 64%) of the vote to prevent cycles, so long as the distribution of voters is well-behaved ([[quasiconcave]]).<ref name="Caplin-1988" /> These results provide some justification for the common requirement of a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments, which is sufficient to prevent cyclic preferences in most situations.<ref name="Caplin-1988">{{Cite journal |last1=Caplin |first1=Andrew |last2=Nalebuff |first2=Barry |date=1988 |title=On 64%-Majority Rule |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/1912699 |journal=Econometrica |volume=56 |issue=4 |pages=787–814 |doi=10.2307/1912699 |issn=0012-9682 |jstor=1912699|url-access=subscription }}</ref>
In [[Spatial model of voting|spatial (n-dimensional ideology) models of voting]], this can be relaxed to require only <math>1-e^{-1}</math> (roughly 64%) of the vote to prevent cycles, so long as the distribution of voters is well-behaved ([[quasiconcave]]).<ref name="Caplin-1988" /> These results provide some justification for the common requirement of a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments, which is sufficient to prevent cyclic preferences in most situations.<ref name="Caplin-1988">{{Cite journal |last1=Caplin |first1=Andrew |last2=Nalebuff |first2=Barry |date=1988 |title=On 64%-Majority Rule |journal=Econometrica |volume=56 |issue=4 |pages=787–814 |doi=10.2307/1912699 |issn=0012-9682 |jstor=1912699}}</ref>


==== Infinite populations ====
==== Infinite populations ====
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* {{cite journal |last=Dardanoni |first=Valentino |year=2001 |title=A pedagogical proof of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem |url=https://escholarship.org/content/qt96n108ts/qt96n108ts.pdf?t=li5b40 |journal=Social Choice and Welfare |volume=18 |issue=1 |pages=107–112 |doi=10.1007/s003550000062 |jstor=41106398 |s2cid=7589377}} [https://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsdecon/1999-25/ preprint].
* {{cite journal |last=Dardanoni |first=Valentino |year=2001 |title=A pedagogical proof of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem |url=https://escholarship.org/content/qt96n108ts/qt96n108ts.pdf?t=li5b40 |journal=Social Choice and Welfare |volume=18 |issue=1 |pages=107–112 |doi=10.1007/s003550000062 |jstor=41106398 |s2cid=7589377}} [https://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsdecon/1999-25/ preprint].
* {{cite journal |last=Hansen |first=Paul |year=2002 |title=Another Graphical Proof of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem |journal=The Journal of Economic Education |volume=33 |issue=3 |pages=217–235 |doi=10.1080/00220480209595188 |s2cid=145127710}}
* {{cite journal |last=Hansen |first=Paul |year=2002 |title=Another Graphical Proof of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem |journal=The Journal of Economic Education |volume=33 |issue=3 |pages=217–235 |doi=10.1080/00220480209595188 |s2cid=145127710}}
* {{cite book |last=Hunt |first=Earl |author-link=Earl B. Hunt |url=http://www.cambridge.org/9780521850124 |title=The Mathematics of Behavior |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=2007 |isbn=9780521850124}}. The chapter "Defining Rationality: Personal and Group Decision Making" has a detailed discussion of the Arrow Theorem, with proof.
* {{cite book |last=Hunt |first=Earl |author-link=Earl B. Hunt |url=http://www.cambridge.org/9780521850124 |title=The Mathematics of Behavior |publisher=Cambridge University Press |year=2007 |isbn=978-0-521-85012-4}}. The chapter "Defining Rationality: Personal and Group Decision Making" has a detailed discussion of the Arrow Theorem, with proof.
* {{cite book |last=Lewis |first=Harold W. |title=Why flip a coin? : The art and science of good decisions |publisher=John Wiley |year=1997 |isbn=0-471-29645-7}} Gives explicit examples of preference rankings and apparently anomalous results under different electoral system. States but does not prove Arrow's theorem.
* {{cite book |last=Lewis |first=Harold W. |title=Why flip a coin?: The art and science of good decisions |publisher=John Wiley |year=1997 |isbn=0-471-29645-7}} Gives explicit examples of preference rankings and apparently anomalous results under different electoral system. States but does not prove Arrow's theorem.
* {{Cite book |last1=Sen |first1=Amartya Kumar |author-link1=Amartya Sen |title=Collective choice and social welfare |publisher=North-Holland |year=1979 |isbn=978-0-444-85127-7 |location=Amsterdam}}
* {{Cite book |last1=Sen |first1=Amartya Kumar |author-link1=Amartya Sen |title=Collective choice and social welfare |publisher=North-Holland |year=1979 |isbn=978-0-444-85127-7 |location=Amsterdam}}
* {{cite book |last=Skala |first=Heinz J. |title=Theory and Decision : Essays in Honor of Werner Leinfellner |publisher=Springer |year=2012 |isbn=978-94-009-3895-3 |editor-last=Eberlein |editor-first=G. |pages=273–286 |chapter=What Does Arrow's Impossibility Theorem Tell Us? |editor2-last=Berghel |editor2-first=H. A. |chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Xrp9CAAAQBAJ&pg=PA273}}
* {{cite book |last=Skala |first=Heinz J. |title=Theory and Decision: Essays in Honor of Werner Leinfellner |publisher=Springer |year=2012 |isbn=978-94-009-3895-3 |editor-last=Eberlein |editor-first=G. |pages=273–286 |chapter=What Does Arrow's Impossibility Theorem Tell Us? |editor2-last=Berghel |editor2-first=H. A. |chapter-url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Xrp9CAAAQBAJ&pg=PA273}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Tang |first1=Pingzhong |last2=Lin |first2=Fangzhen |year=2009 |title=Computer-aided Proofs of Arrow's and Other Impossibility Theorems |journal=Artificial Intelligence |volume=173 |issue=11 |pages=1041–1053 |doi=10.1016/j.artint.2009.02.005 |doi-access=free}}
* {{cite journal |last1=Tang |first1=Pingzhong |last2=Lin |first2=Fangzhen |year=2009 |title=Computer-aided Proofs of Arrow's and Other Impossibility Theorems |journal=Artificial Intelligence |volume=173 |issue=11 |pages=1041–1053 |doi=10.1016/j.artint.2009.02.005 |doi-access=free}}
{{refend}}
{{refend}}

Latest revision as of 21:48, 13 November 2025

Template:Short description Template:Electoral systems

Arrow's impossibility theorem is a key result in social choice theory showing that no ranked-choice procedure for group decision-making can satisfy the requirements of rational choice.[1] Specifically, Arrow showed no such rule can satisfy independence of irrelevant alternatives, the principle that a choice between two alternatives Template:Math and Template:Math should not depend on the quality of some third, unrelated option, Template:Math.[2][3][4]

The result is often cited in discussions of voting rules,[5] where it shows no ranked voting rule can eliminate the spoiler effect.[6][7][8] This result was first shown by the Marquis de Condorcet, whose voting paradox showed the impossibility of logically-consistent majority rule; Arrow's theorem generalizes Condorcet's findings to include non-majoritarian rules like collective leadership or consensus decision-making.[1]

While the impossibility theorem shows all ranked voting rules must have spoilers, the frequency of spoilers differs dramatically by rule. Plurality-rule methods like choose-one and ranked-choice (instant-runoff) voting are highly sensitive to spoilers,[9][10] creating them even in some situations where they are not mathematically necessary (e.g. in center squeezes).[11][12] In contrast, majority-rule (Condorcet) methods of ranked voting uniquely minimize the number of spoiled elections[12] by restricting them to voting cycles,[11] which are rare in ideologically-driven elections.[13][14] Under some models of voter preferences (like the left-right spectrum assumed in the median voter theorem), spoilers disappear entirely for these methods.[15][16]

Rated voting rules, where voters assign a separate grade to each candidate, are not affected by Arrow's theorem.[17][18][19] Arrow initially asserted the information provided by these systems was meaningless and therefore could not be used to prevent paradoxes, leading him to overlook them.[20] However, Arrow would later describe this as a mistake,[21][22] admitting rules based on cardinal utilities (such as score and approval voting) are not subject to his theorem.[23][24]

Background

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". When Kenneth Arrow proved his theorem in 1950, it inaugurated the modern field of social choice theory, a branch of welfare economics studying mechanisms to aggregate preferences and beliefs across a society.[25] Such a mechanism of study can be a market, voting system, constitution, or even a moral or ethical framework.[1]

Axioms of voting systems

Preferences

Script error: No such module "labelled list hatnote".In the context of Arrow's theorem, citizens are assumed to have ordinal preferences, i.e. orderings of candidates. If Template:Math and Template:Math are different candidates or alternatives, then AB means Template:Math is preferred to Template:Math. Individual preferences (or ballots) are required to satisfy intuitive properties of orderings, e.g. they must be transitive—if AB and BC, then AC. The social choice function is then a mathematical function that maps the individual orderings to a new ordering that represents the preferences of all of society.

Basic assumptions

Arrow's theorem assumes as background that any non-degenerate social choice rule will satisfy:[26]

Arrow's original statement of the theorem included non-negative responsiveness as a condition, i.e., that increasing the rank of an outcome should not make them lose—in other words, that a voting rule shouldn't penalize a candidate for being more popular.[2] However, this assumption is not needed or used in his proof (except to derive the weaker condition of Pareto efficiency), and Arrow later corrected his statement of the theorem to remove the inclusion of this condition.[3][29]

Independence

A commonly-considered axiom of rational choice is independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA), which says that when deciding between Template:Math and Template:Math, one's opinion about a third option Template:Math should not affect their decision.[2]

IIA is sometimes illustrated with a short joke by philosopher Sidney Morgenbesser:[30]

Morgenbesser, ordering dessert, is told by a waitress that he can choose between blueberry or apple pie. He orders apple. Soon the waitress comes back and explains cherry pie is also an option. Morgenbesser replies "In that case, I'll have blueberry."

Arrow's theorem shows that if a society wishes to make decisions while always avoiding such self-contradictions, it cannot use ranked information alone.[30]

Theorem

Intuitive argument

Condorcet's example is already enough to see the impossibility of a fair ranked voting system, given stronger conditions for fairness than Arrow's theorem assumes.[31] Suppose we have three candidates (A, B, and C) and three voters whose preferences are as follows:

Voter First preference Second preference Third preference
Voter 1 A B C
Voter 2 B C A
Voter 3 C A B

If C is chosen as the winner, it can be argued any fair voting system would say B should win instead, since two voters (1 and 2) prefer B to C and only one voter (3) prefers C to B. However, by the same argument A is preferred to B, and C is preferred to A, by a margin of two to one on each occasion. Thus, even though each individual voter has consistent preferences, the preferences of society are contradictory: A is preferred over B which is preferred over C which is preferred over A.

Because of this example, some authors credit Condorcet with having given an intuitive argument that presents the core of Arrow's theorem.[31] However, Arrow's theorem is substantially more general; it applies to methods of making decisions other than one-person-one-vote elections, such as markets or weighted voting, based on ranked ballots.

Formal statement

Let A be a set of alternatives. A voter's preferences over A are a complete and transitive binary relation on A (sometimes called a total preorder), that is, a subset R of A×A satisfying:

  1. (Transitivity) If (𝐚,𝐛) is in R and (𝐛,𝐜) is in R, then (𝐚,𝐜) is in R,
  2. (Completeness) At least one of (𝐚,𝐛) or (𝐛,𝐚) must be in R.

The element (𝐚,𝐛) being in R is interpreted to mean that alternative 𝐚 is preferred to or indifferent to alternative 𝐛. This situation is often denoted 𝐚𝐛 or 𝐚R𝐛. The symmetric part of R yields the indifference relation I. This is written as 𝐚𝐛 or 𝐚I𝐛 if and only if (𝐚,𝐛) and (𝐛,𝐚) are both in R. The asymmetric part of R yields the (strict) preference relation P. This is written as 𝐚𝐛 or 𝐚P𝐛 if and only if (𝐚,𝐛) is in R and (𝐛,𝐚) is not in R. In the following, preference of one alternative over another denotes strict preference.

Denote the set of all preferences on A by Π(A). Equivalently, Π(A) is the set of rankings of the alternatives in A from top to bottom, with ties allowed. Let N be a positive integer. An ordinal (ranked) social welfare function is a function[2]

F:Π(A)NΠ(A)

which aggregates voters' preferences into a single preference on A. An N-tuple (R1,,RN)Π(A)N of voters' preferences is called a preference profile.

Arrow's impossibility theorem: If there are at least three alternatives, then there is no social welfare function satisfying all three of the conditions listed below:[32]

Pareto efficiency
If alternative 𝐚 is preferred to 𝐛 for all orderings R1,,RN, then 𝐚 is preferred to 𝐛 by F(R1,R2,,RN).[2]
Non-dictatorship
There is no individual i whose preferences always prevail. That is, there is no i{1,,N} such that for all (R1,,RN)Π(A)N and all 𝐚 and 𝐛, when 𝐚 is preferred to 𝐛 by Ri then 𝐚 is preferred to 𝐛 by F(R1,R2,,RN).[2]
Independence of irrelevant alternatives
For two preference profiles (R1,,RN) and (S1,,SN) such that for all individuals i, alternatives 𝐚 and 𝐛 have the same order in Ri as in Si, alternatives 𝐚 and 𝐛 have the same order in F(R1,,RN) as in F(S1,,SN).[2]

Formal proof

Template:Collapse top

Arrow's proof used the concept of decisive coalitions.[3]

Definition:

  • A subset of voters is a coalition.
  • A coalition is decisive over an ordered pair (x,y) if, when everyone in the coalition ranks xiy, society overall will always rank xy.
  • A coalition is decisive if and only if it is decisive over all ordered pairs.

Our goal is to prove that the decisive coalition contains only one voter, who controls the outcome—in other words, a dictator.

The following proof is a simplification taken from Amartya Sen[33] and Ariel Rubinstein.[34] The simplified proof uses an additional concept:

  • A coalition is weakly decisive over (x,y) if and only if when every voter i in the coalition ranks xiy, and every voter j outside the coalition ranks yjx, then xy.

Thenceforth assume that the social choice system satisfies unrestricted domain, Pareto efficiency, and IIA. Also assume that there are at least 3 distinct outcomes. Template:Math theorem Template:Math proof Template:Math theorem Template:Math proof

By Pareto, the entire set of voters is decisive. Thus by the group contraction lemma, there is a size-one decisive coalition—a dictator. Template:Collapse bottom

Template:Collapse top Proofs using the concept of the pivotal voter originated from Salvador Barberá in 1980.[35] The proof given here is a simplified version based on two proofs published in Economic Theory.[32][36]

Setup

Assume there are n voters. We assign all of these voters an arbitrary ID number, ranging from 1 through n, which we can use to keep track of each voter's identity as we consider what happens when they change their votes. Without loss of generality, we can say there are three candidates who we call A, B, and C. (Because of IIA, including more than 3 candidates does not affect the proof.)

We will prove that any social choice rule respecting unanimity and independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is a dictatorship. The proof is in three parts:

  1. We identify a pivotal voter for each individual contest (A vs. B, B vs. C, and A vs. C). Their ballot swings the societal outcome.
  2. We prove this voter is a partial dictator. In other words, they get to decide whether A or B is ranked higher in the outcome.
  3. We prove this voter is the same person, hence this voter is a dictator.

Part one: There is a pivotal voter for A vs. B

File:Diagram for part one of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.svg
Part one: Successively move B from the bottom to the top of voters' ballots. The voter whose change results in B being ranked over A is the pivotal voter for B over A.

Consider the situation where everyone prefers A to B, and everyone also prefers C to B. By unanimity, society must also prefer both A and C to B. Call this situation profile[0, x].

On the other hand, if everyone preferred B to everything else, then society would have to prefer B to everything else by unanimity. Now arrange all the voters in some arbitrary but fixed order, and for each i let profile i be the same as profile 0, but move B to the top of the ballots for voters 1 through i. So profile 1 has B at the top of the ballot for voter 1, but not for any of the others. Profile 2 has B at the top for voters 1 and 2, but no others, and so on.

Since B eventually moves to the top of the societal preference as the profile number increases, there must be some profile, number k, for which B first moves above A in the societal rank. We call the voter k whose ballot change causes this to happen the pivotal voter for B over A. Note that the pivotal voter for B over A is not, a priori, the same as the pivotal voter for A over B. In part three of the proof we will show that these do turn out to be the same.

Also note that by IIA the same argument applies if profile 0 is any profile in which A is ranked above B by every voter, and the pivotal voter for B over A will still be voter k. We will use this observation below.

Part two: The pivotal voter for B over A is a dictator for B over C

In this part of the argument we refer to voter k, the pivotal voter for B over A, as the pivotal voter for simplicity. We will show that the pivotal voter dictates society's decision for B over C. That is, we show that no matter how the rest of society votes, if pivotal voter ranks B over C, then that is the societal outcome. Note again that the dictator for B over C is not a priori the same as that for C over B. In part three of the proof we will see that these turn out to be the same too.

File:Diagram for part two of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.svg
Part two: Switching A and B on the ballot of voter k causes the same switch to the societal outcome, by part one of the argument. Making any or all of the indicated switches to the other ballots has no effect on the outcome.

In the following, we call voters 1 through k − 1, segment one, and voters k + 1 through N, segment two. To begin, suppose that the ballots are as follows:

  • Every voter in segment one ranks B above C and C above A.
  • Pivotal voter ranks A above B and B above C.
  • Every voter in segment two ranks A above B and B above C.

Then by the argument in part one (and the last observation in that part), the societal outcome must rank A above B. This is because, except for a repositioning of C, this profile is the same as profile k − 1 from part one. Furthermore, by unanimity the societal outcome must rank B above C. Therefore, we know the outcome in this case completely.

Now suppose that pivotal voter moves B above A, but keeps C in the same position and imagine that any number (even all!) of the other voters change their ballots to move B below C, without changing the position of A. Then aside from a repositioning of C this is the same as profile k from part one and hence the societal outcome ranks B above A. Furthermore, by IIA the societal outcome must rank A above C, as in the previous case. In particular, the societal outcome ranks B above C, even though Pivotal Voter may have been the only voter to rank B above C. By IIA, this conclusion holds independently of how A is positioned on the ballots, so pivotal voter is a dictator for B over C.

Part three: There exists a dictator

File:Diagram for part three of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.svg
Part three: Since voter k is the dictator for B over C, the pivotal voter for B over C must appear among the first k voters. That is, outside of segment two. Likewise, the pivotal voter for C over B must appear among voters k through N. That is, outside of Segment One.

In this part of the argument we refer back to the original ordering of voters, and compare the positions of the different pivotal voters (identified by applying parts one and two to the other pairs of candidates). First, the pivotal voter for B over C must appear earlier (or at the same position) in the line than the dictator for B over C: As we consider the argument of part one applied to B and C, successively moving B to the top of voters' ballots, the pivot point where society ranks B above C must come at or before we reach the dictator for B over C. Likewise, reversing the roles of B and C, the pivotal voter for C over B must be at or later in line than the dictator for B over C. In short, if kX/Y denotes the position of the pivotal voter for X over Y (for any two candidates X and Y), then we have shown

kB/C ≤ kB/AkC/B.

Now repeating the entire argument above with B and C switched, we also have

kC/BkB/C.

Therefore, we have

kB/C = kB/A = kC/B

and the same argument for other pairs shows that all the pivotal voters (and hence all the dictators) occur at the same position in the list of voters. This voter is the dictator for the whole election. Template:Collapse bottom

Stronger versions

Arrow's impossibility theorem still holds if Pareto efficiency is weakened to the following condition:[4]

Non-imposition
For any two alternatives a and b, there exists some preference profile Template:Math such that Template:Math is preferred to Template:Math by Template:Math.

Interpretation and practical solutions

Arrow's theorem establishes that no ranked voting rule can always satisfy independence of irrelevant alternatives, but it says nothing about the frequency of spoilers. This led Arrow to remark that "Most systems are not going to work badly all of the time. All I proved is that all can work badly at times."[37][38]

Attempts at dealing with the effects of Arrow's theorem take one of two approaches: either accepting his rule and searching for the least spoiler-prone methods, or dropping one or more of his assumptions, such as by focusing on rated voting rules.[30]

Script error: No such module "anchor".Minimizing IIA failures: Majority-rule methods

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File:Italian food Condorcet cycle.png
An example of a Condorcet cycle, where some candidate must cause a spoiler effect

The first set of methods studied by economists are the majority-rule, or Condorcet, methods. These rules limit spoilers to situations where majority rule is self-contradictory, called Condorcet cycles, and as a result uniquely minimize the possibility of a spoiler effect among ranked rules. (Indeed, many different social welfare functions can meet Arrow's conditions under such restrictions of the domain. It has been proven, however, that under any such restriction, if there exists any social welfare function that adheres to Arrow's criteria, then Condorcet method will adhere to Arrow's criteria.[12]) Condorcet believed voting rules should satisfy both independence of irrelevant alternatives and the majority rule principle, i.e. if most voters rank Alice ahead of Bob, Alice should defeat Bob in the election.[31]

Unfortunately, as Condorcet proved, this rule can be intransitive on some preference profiles.[39] Thus, Condorcet proved a weaker form of Arrow's impossibility theorem long before Arrow, under the stronger assumption that a voting system in the two-candidate case will agree with a simple majority vote.[31]

Unlike pluralitarian rules such as ranked-choice runoff (RCV) or first-preference plurality,[9] Condorcet methods avoid the spoiler effect in non-cyclic elections, where candidates can be chosen by majority rule. Political scientists have found such cycles to be fairly rare, suggesting they may be of limited practical concern.[14] Spatial voting models also suggest such paradoxes are likely to be infrequent[40][13] or even non-existent.[15]

Script error: No such module "anchor".Left-right spectrum

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". Soon after Arrow published his theorem, Duncan Black showed his own remarkable result, the median voter theorem. The theorem proves that if voters and candidates are arranged on a left-right spectrum, Arrow's conditions are all fully compatible, and all will be met by any rule satisfying Condorcet's majority-rule principle.[15][16]

More formally, Black's theorem assumes preferences are single-peaked: a voter's happiness with a candidate goes up and then down as the candidate moves along some spectrum. For example, in a group of friends choosing a volume setting for music, each friend would likely have their own ideal volume; as the volume gets progressively too loud or too quiet, they would be increasingly dissatisfied. If the domain is restricted to profiles where every individual has a single-peaked preference with respect to the linear ordering, then social preferences are acyclic. In this situation, Condorcet methods satisfy a wide variety of highly-desirable properties, including being fully spoilerproof.[15][16][12]

The rule does not fully generalize from the political spectrum to the political compass, a result related to the McKelvey-Schofield chaos theorem.[15][41] However, a well-defined Condorcet winner does exist if the distribution of voters is rotationally symmetric or otherwise has a uniquely-defined median.[42][43] In most realistic situations, where voters' opinions follow a roughly-normal distribution or can be accurately summarized by one or two dimensions, Condorcet cycles are rare (though not unheard of).[40][11]

Generalized stability theorems

The Campbell-Kelly theorem shows that Condorcet methods are the most spoiler-resistant class of ranked voting systems: whenever it is possible for some ranked voting system to avoid a spoiler effect, a Condorcet method will do so.[12] In other words, replacing a ranked method with its Condorcet variant (i.e. elect a Condorcet winner if they exist, and otherwise run the method) will sometimes prevent a spoiler effect, but can never create a new one.[12]

In 1977, Ehud Kalai and Eitan Muller gave a full characterization of domain restrictions admitting a nondictatorial and strategyproof social welfare function. These correspond to preferences for which there is a Condorcet winner.[44]

Holliday and Pacuit devised a voting system that provably minimizes the number of candidates who are capable of spoiling an election, albeit at the cost of occasionally failing vote positivity (though at a much lower rate than seen in instant-runoff voting).[11]Template:Clarify

Rated social choice

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". As shown above, the proof of Arrow's theorem relies crucially on the assumption of ranked voting, and is not applicable to rated voting systems. These systems ask voters to rate candidates on a numerical scale (e.g. from 0–10), and then elect the candidate with the highest average (for score voting) or median (graduated majority judgment).[45]Template:Rp This opens up the possibility of finding another social choice procedure that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives.[46] Arrow's theorem can thus be considered a special case of Harsanyi's utilitarian theorem and other utility representation theorems like the VNM theorem, which show rational behavior requires consistent cardinal utilities.[47][48]

While Arrow's theorem does not apply to graded systems, Gibbard's theorem still does: no voting game can be straightforward (i.e. have a single, clear, always-best strategy).[49]

Script error: No such module "anchor".Meaningfulness of cardinal information

Script error: No such module "Labelled list hatnote". Arrow's framework assumed individual and social preferences are orderings or rankings, i.e. statements about which outcomes are better or worse than others.[50] Taking inspiration from the behavioralist approach, some philosophers and economists rejected the idea of comparing internal human experiences of well-being.[51][30] Such philosophers claimed it was impossible to compare the strength of preferences across people who disagreed; Sen gives as an example that it would be impossible to know whether the Great Fire of Rome was good or bad, because despite killing thousands of Romans, it had the positive effect of letting Nero expand his palace.[52]

Arrow originally agreed with these position, rejecting the meaningfulness of cardinal utilities,[3][51] thus interpreting his theorem as a kind of proof for nihilism or egoism.[30][50] However, he later stated that cardinal methods can provide additional useful information, and that his theorem is not applicable to them.[37][53] Similarly, Amartya Sen first claimed interpersonal comparability is necessary for IIA, but later came to argue in favor of cardinal methods for assessing social choice, arguing they would only require "rather limited levels of partial comparability" to hold in practice.[54]

Other scholars have noted that interpersonal comparisons of utility are not unique to cardinal voting, but are instead a necessity of any non-dictatorial choice procedure, with cardinal voting rules making these comparisons explicit. David Pearce identified Arrow's original nihilist interpretation with a kind of circular reasoning,[55] with Hildreth pointing out that "any procedure that extends the partial ordering of [Pareto efficiency] must involve interpersonal comparisons of utility."[56] Similar observations have led to implicit utilitarian voting approaches, which attempt to make the assumptions of ranked procedures more explicit by modeling them as approximations of the utilitarian rule (or score voting).[57]

In psychometrics, there is a general consensus that self-reported ratings (e.g. Likert scales) are meaningful and provide more information than pure rankings, as well as showing higher validity and reliability.[58] Cardinal rating scales (e.g. Likert scales) provide more information than rankings alone.[59][60] A review by Kaiser and Oswald found that ratings were more predictive of important decisions (such as international migration and divorce) than even standard socioeconomic predictors like income and demographics,[61] writing that "this feelings-to-actions relationship takes a generic form, is consistently replicable, and is fairly close to linear in structure. Therefore, it seems that human beings can successfully operationalize an integer scale for feelings".[61]

Nonstandard spoilers

Behavioral economists have shown individual irrationality involves violations of IIA (e.g. with decoy effects),[62] suggesting human behavior can cause IIA failures even if the voting method itself does not.[63] However, past research has typically found such effects to be fairly small,[64] and such psychological spoilers can appear regardless of electoral system. Balinski and Laraki discuss techniques of ballot design derived from psychometrics that minimize these psychological effects, such as asking voters to give each candidate a verbal grade (e.g. "bad", "neutral", "good", "excellent") and issuing instructions to voters that refer to their ballots as judgments of individual candidates.[45] Similar techniques are often discussed in the context of contingent valuation.[53]

Esoteric solutions

In addition to the above practical resolutions, there exist unusual (less-than-practical) situations where Arrow's requirement of IIA can be satisfied.

Supermajority rules

Supermajority rules can avoid Arrow's theorem at the cost of being poorly-decisive (i.e. frequently failing to return a result). In this case, a threshold that requires a 2/3 majority for ordering 3 outcomes, 3/4 for 4, etc. does not produce voting paradoxes.[65]

In spatial (n-dimensional ideology) models of voting, this can be relaxed to require only 1e1 (roughly 64%) of the vote to prevent cycles, so long as the distribution of voters is well-behaved (quasiconcave).[66] These results provide some justification for the common requirement of a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments, which is sufficient to prevent cyclic preferences in most situations.[66]

Infinite populations

Fishburn shows all of Arrow's conditions can be satisfied for uncountably infinite sets of voters given the axiom of choice;[67] however, Kirman and Sondermann demonstrated this requires disenfranchising almost all members of a society (eligible voters form a set of measure 0), leading them to refer to such societies as "invisible dictatorships".[68]

Common misconceptions

Arrow's theorem is not related to strategic voting, which does not appear in his framework,[3][1] though the theorem does have important implications for strategic voting (being used as a lemma to prove Gibbard's theorem[26]). The Arrovian framework of social welfare assumes all voter preferences are known and the only issue is in aggregating them.[1]

Monotonicity (called positive association by Arrow) is not a condition of Arrow's theorem.[3] This misconception is caused by a mistake by Arrow himself, who included the axiom in his original statement of the theorem but did not use it.[2] Dropping the assumption does not allow for constructing a social welfare function that meets his other conditions.[3]

Contrary to a common misconception, Arrow's theorem deals with the limited class of ranked-choice voting systems, rather than voting systems as a whole.[1][69]

See also

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References

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Further reading

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  • Script error: No such module "citation/CS1". Surveys many of approaches discussed in #Alternatives based on functions of preference profilesTemplate:Broken anchor.
  • Script error: No such module "Citation/CS1". preprint.
  • Script error: No such module "Citation/CS1".
  • Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".. The chapter "Defining Rationality: Personal and Group Decision Making" has a detailed discussion of the Arrow Theorem, with proof.
  • Script error: No such module "citation/CS1". Gives explicit examples of preference rankings and apparently anomalous results under different electoral system. States but does not prove Arrow's theorem.
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External links

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  20. "Modern economic theory has insisted on the ordinal concept of utility; that is, only orderings can be observed, and therefore no measurement of utility independent of these orderings has any significance. In the field of consumer's demand theory the ordinalist position turned out to create no problems; cardinal utility had no explanatory power above and beyond ordinal. Leibniz' Principle of the identity of indiscernibles demanded then the excision of cardinal utility from our thought patterns." Arrow (1967), as quoted on p. 33 by Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
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    Dr. Arrow: Well, I'm a little inclined to think that score systems where you categorize in maybe three or four classes (in spite of what I said about manipulation) is probably the best.[...] And some of these studies have been made. In France, [Michel] Balinski has done some studies of this kind which seem to give some support to these scoring methods.

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  47. Neumann, John von and Morgenstern, Oskar, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ. Princeton University Press, 1953.
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  51. a b "Modern economic theory has insisted on the ordinal concept of utility; that is, only orderings can be observed, and therefore no measurement of utility independent of these orderings has any significance. In the field of consumer's demand theory the ordinalist position turned out to create no problems; cardinal utility had no explanatory power above and beyond ordinal. Leibniz' Principle of the identity of indiscernibles demanded then the excision of cardinal utility from our thought patterns." Arrow (1967), as quoted on p. 33 by Script error: No such module "citation/CS1".
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  53. a b Arrow, Kenneth et al. 1993. Report of the NOAA panel on Contingent Valuation.
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