View source for Swing state

{{Short description|US state where no party for election has overwhelming support}}
{{For|the comedy film|Swing State (film)}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=November 2024}}
{{Update|date=November 2024}}
[[File:Red states and blue states of the US based on data from the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections.svg|thumb|350px|Summary of statewide results of the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]], [[2016 United States presidential election|2016]], [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]], and [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 presidential election]]s by state
{{legend|#ff0000|Won by the Republicans in all four elections}}
{{legend|#ff8080|Won by the Republicans in three of the four elections}}
{{legend|#a000a0|Won by each party twice in the four elections}}
{{legend|#80a0ff|Won by the Democrats in three of the four elections}}
{{legend|#0000ff|Won by the Democrats in all four elections}}]]
[[File:2025 Cook PVI.svg|thumb|360px|Map of [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]]–[[2024 United States presidential election|2024]] [[Cook PVI]] for all voting entities in the [[2028 United States presidential election]] ([[United States state|states]], [[District of Columbia|federal district]], and [[list of United States congressional districts|congressional districts]] of [[Maine]] and [[Nebraska]])<br><br>'''Map legend:'''<br>{{legend|#1a3165|State or district has a Cook PVI of D+10 or greater}}{{legend|#2750b0|State or district has a Cook PVI between D+5 and D+10}}{{legend|#668be1|State or district has a Cook PVI between D+2 and D+5}}{{legend|#a8c1fa|State or district has a Cook PVI between EVEN and D+2}}{{legend|#fbb7bb|State or district has a Cook PVI between EVEN and R+2}}{{legend|#f47178|State or district has a Cook PVI between R+2 and R+5}}{{legend|#e4252f|State or district has a Cook PVI between R+5 and R+10}}{{legend|#9e151e|State or district has a Cook PVI of R+10 or greater}}]]

In [[United States politics]], a '''swing state''' (also known as '''battleground state''', '''toss-up state''', or '''purple state''') is any state that could reasonably be won by either the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] or [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to [[United States presidential election|presidential elections]], by a [[Swing (politics)|swing]] in votes. These states are usually targeted by both [[Political campaign|major-party campaigns]], especially in competitive elections.<ref name="the-only-thing-that-matters">{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/|first1=Larry J. |last1=Sabato |first2=Kyle |last2=Kondik |first3=Geoffrey |last3=Skelley |department=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball |title=The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters|website=Center For Politics|date=March 31, 2016 |language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> Meanwhile, the states that regularly lean to a single party are known as "safe states" (or more specifically as [[Red states and blue states|"red states" and "blue states"]] depending on the partisan leaning), as it is generally assumed that one candidate has a base of support from which a sufficient share of the electorate can be drawn without significant investment or effort by the campaign. In the [[2024 United States presidential election]], seven states were widely considered to be the crucial swing states: [[Arizona]], [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], [[North Carolina]], [[Pennsylvania]], and [[Wisconsin]].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511pyn3xw3o |title=Seven swing states set to decide the 2024 US election |date=November 2, 2024 |access-date=March 22, 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://usafacts.org/articles/what-are-the-current-swing-states-and-how-have-they-changed-over-time/ |title=What are the current swing states, and how have they changed over time? |publisher=USAFacts |date=August 7, 2024 |access-date=March 22, 2025}}</ref>

Due to the [[Plurality voting|winner-take-all]] method that most states use to determine their [[Electoral College (United States)|presidential electors]], candidates often campaign only in competitive states, which is why a select group of states frequently receives a majority of the advertisements and candidate visits.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter|last1=Beachler|first1=Donald W.|last2=Bergbower|first2=Matthew L.|last3=Cooper|first3=Chris|last4=Damore|first4=David F.|last5=van Doorn|first5=Bas|last6=Foreman|first6=Sean D.|last7=Gill|first7=Rebecca|last8=Hendriks|first8=Henriët|last9=Hoffmann|first9=Donna|date=October 29, 2015|publisher=Lexington Books|isbn=9780739195246|editor-last=Schultz|editor-first=David|language=en|editor-last2=Hecht|editor-first2=Stacey Hunter}}</ref> The battlegrounds may change in certain [[United States presidential election|election cycles]] and may be reflected in overall polling, demographics, and the [[Political ideologies in the United States|ideological appeal]] of the nominees.

== Background ==
[[File:States by partisan lean based on the results of the 2024 presidential election.svg|thumb|330x330px|Map of [[United States state|states]] by partisan lean in the [[2024 United States presidential election]], weighted relative to the national popular vote margin (1.5% in favor of the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] nominee, [[Donald Trump]], over the [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] nominee, [[Kamala Harris]]){{pb}}'''Legend (darker indicates greater margin):'''
{{legend|#1063ff|Relative lean of >10 points toward Harris}}
{{legend|#6497ff|Relative lean of 5–10 points toward Harris}}
{{legend|#b1cbff|Relative lean of <5 points toward Harris}}
{{legend|#fbb7bb|Relative lean of <5 points toward Trump}}
{{legend|#ff6475|Relative lean of 5–10 points toward Trump}}
{{legend|#ff102b|Relative lean of >10 points toward Trump}}]]
In [[United States presidential election|United States presidential elections]], each state is free to decide the method by which its electors to the [[United States Electoral College|Electoral College]] will be chosen. To increase its [[Banzhaf power index#U.S. Electoral College|voting power in the Electoral College system]], every state, with the exceptions of [[Maine]] and [[Nebraska]], has adopted a [[Plurality voting system|winner-take-all]] system, where the candidate who wins the most popular votes in a state wins all of that state's electoral votes.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|title=What Are Swing States and How Did They Become a Key Factor in US Elections? – HISTORY|url=https://www.history.com/news/swing-states-presidential-elections|access-date=October 24, 2020|website=www.history.com|date=October 7, 2020 }}</ref> 

The expectation was that the candidates would look after the interests of the states with the most electoral votes. However, in practice, most voters tend not to change party allegiance from one election to the next, leading presidential candidates to concentrate their limited time and resources campaigning in those states that they believe they can [[swing (politics)|swing]] towards them or stop states from swinging away from them, and not to spend time or resources in states they expect to win or lose. 

Because of the electoral system, the campaigns are less concerned with increasing a candidate's national popular vote, tending instead to concentrate on the popular vote only in those states which will provide the electoral votes it needs to win the election, as many successful candidates have [[List of United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote|lost the popular vote]] but won the electoral college.

In past electoral results, Republican candidates would have expected to easily win most of the [[mountain states]] and [[Great Plains]], such as [[Idaho]], [[Wyoming]], [[the Dakotas]], [[Montana]], [[Utah]], [[Kansas]], [[Oklahoma]], and [[Nebraska]], most of the [[Southern United States|South]], including [[Alabama]], [[Mississippi]], [[Louisiana]], [[Arkansas]], [[Tennessee]], [[Kentucky]], [[South Carolina]], [[Missouri]], [[Texas]], and [[West Virginia]], as well as [[Alaska]]. Democrats usually take the [[Mid-Atlantic (United States)|Mid-Atlantic]] states, including [[New York (state)|New York]], [[New Jersey]], [[Maryland]], [[Virginia]], and [[Delaware]], [[New England]], particularly [[Vermont]], [[Massachusetts]], [[Rhode Island]], and [[Connecticut]], the [[West Coast (United States)|West Coast]] states of [[California]], [[Oregon]], [[Washington (state)|Washington]], [[Hawaii]], and the [[Southwestern United States|Southwestern]] states of [[Colorado]] and [[New Mexico]], as well as the [[Great Lakes region|Great Lakes]] states of [[Illinois]] and [[Minnesota]].<ref>{{Cite web|title=A recent voting history of the 15 Battleground states – National Constitution Center|url=https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/voting-history-of-the-15-battleground-states|access-date=October 24, 2020|website=National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=State Electoral Vote History: 1900 to Present|url=https://www.270towin.com/state-electoral-vote-history/|access-date=October 24, 2020|website=270toWin.com}}</ref>

However, some states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in [[New Hampshire]], [[Vermont]] and [[Virginia]] which have Republican governors, as well as in [[Kentucky]] and [[Kansas]], which currently have Democratic governors. Even in presidential election years, voters may split presidential and [[gubernatorial]] tickets. In 2024, this occurred in three states: [[North Carolina]], [[Vermont]] and [[New Hampshire]]. Vermont and New Hampshire both elected Republican governors even as Democrat [[Kamala Harris]] won both states. North Carolina, despite voting for Republican [[Donald Trump]], elected a Democratic governor. North Carolina has elected a Democratic governor in each concurrent gubernatorial election where Donald Trump was the Republican presidential nominee, by a notably wide margin in [[2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election|2024]]. <ref>{{Cite web |title=2020 Governor Election Results – 270toWin |url=https://www.270towin.com/2020-governor-election/2020-actual-results |access-date=2022-05-11 |website=270toWin.com}}</ref>

In Maine and Nebraska, the apportionment of electoral votes parallels that for [[United States Senate|U.S. senators]] and [[United States House of Representatives|representatives]]. Two electoral votes go to the candidate who wins the plurality of the vote statewide, and a candidate gets an additional electoral vote for each [[Congressional District|congressional district]] in which they receive a plurality.<ref name=":0" /> Both of these states have relatively few electoral votes – a total of 4 and 5, respectively. Nebraska has split its votes since 1992, and Maine has done so since 1972. Each state has split its electoral votes only thrice since implementation: all three times Maine's second district gave one vote to Donald Trump, in 2016 (won), 2020 (lost) and 2024 (won); while Obama in 2008 (won), Biden in 2020 (won), and Harris in 2024 (lost) obtained the Nebraska's second district vote in their respective races.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite news|date=2020-11-04|title=Biden Wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District|language=en|work=[[Bloomberg News|Bloomberg]]|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-04/biden-wins-nebraska-s-2nd-congressional-district|access-date=2020-12-01}}</ref>

== Competitive states ==
States where the election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states. For example, the states in the [[1984 United States presidential election|1984 election]] with the tightest results were [[Minnesota]] and [[Massachusetts]]. A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]], as [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] nominee [[Walter Mondale]] required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, and Republican [[Ronald Reagan]] still would have won by a [[Landslide victory|large margin]].<ref name="azswing">{{cite news|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/27/arizona-is-probably-not-a-swing-state/|title=Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State|last=Silver|first=Nate|author-link=Nate Silver|date=April 27, 2012|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|access-date=June 6, 2013}}</ref> Instead, the [[tipping-point state]] that year was [[Michigan]], as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. The difference in Michigan was nineteen percentage points, quite similar to Reagan's national margin of eighteen percent.<ref name="azswing" /> Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer.

Similarly, [[Barack Obama]]'s narrow victory in [[Indiana]] in the [[2008 United States presidential election in Indiana|2008 election]] inaccurately portrays its status as a battleground. Obama lost Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer [[2012 United States presidential election in Indiana|2012 election]], but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes; the same scenario was with [[Missouri]], where [[John McCain]] narrowly won by 4,000 votes in the [[2008 United States presidential election in Missouri|2008 election]], but was won by [[Mitt Romney]] by nearly 10 points in [[2012 United States presidential election in Missouri|2012 election]], indicating its GOP trend. Other lightly Republican leaning states such as [[North Carolina]] and [[Arizona]] were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012.<ref name="silverchange">{{cite web|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/|title=As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage|last=Silver|first=Nate|author-link=Nate Silver|date=November 8, 2012|access-date=June 6, 2013}}</ref> 

In 2012, the states of North Carolina, Florida, [[Ohio]], and [[Virginia]] were decided by a margin of less than five percent. However, none of them were considered the tipping-point state, as Romney would not have been able to defeat Obama even if he had emerged victorious in all of them. Virginia was most in-step with the rest of the country. Virginians voted for Obama by just under 4 points, almost the exact same as the nation.<ref name="silverchange" /> Had the election come out closer, Romney's path to victory would probably have involved also winning [[Wisconsin]], [[United States presidential election in Nevada, 2012|Nevada]], [[United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2012|New Hampshire]], or [[United States presidential election in Iowa, 2012|Iowa]], as these states had comparable margins to Colorado, and had been battlegrounds during the election.

As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160921014945/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast|url-status=dead|archive-date=September 21, 2016|title=2016 Senate Forecast|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=September 20, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=November 6, 2016}}</ref> For example, if a candidate wins only a few states but does so by a wide margin, while the other candidate's victories are much closer, the popular vote would likely favor the former.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2016-flip-flop/|title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SENATE 2016: FLIP FLOP|website=centerforpolitics.org|date=September 2016 |language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/|title=The Electoral College Blind Spot|date=January 23, 2017|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> However, although the vast majority of the states leaned to the latter candidate in comparison to the entire country, many of them would end up having voted for the loser in greater numbers than did the tipping-point state.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-north-carolina-is-becoming-a-backstop-for-clinton/|title=Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump|date=October 5, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> The presidential election in 2016 was a notable example, as it featured one of the largest historical disparities between the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]] and popular vote.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/16-for-16/|title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball|website=centerforpolitics.org|date=November 17, 2016 |language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/|title=The Real Story Of 2016|date=January 19, 2017|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> 

Additionally, this "split" in votes was much larger in both directions than in previous elections, such as the [[2000 United States presidential election|2000 election]].<ref name="FiveThirtyEight">{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/|title=The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing|date=November 1, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> In that election, Vice President [[Al Gore]] won the popular vote by less than 1 percent, while incoming president [[George W. Bush]] won the Electoral College by only 5 votes.<ref name="FiveThirtyEight" /> In contrast, 2016 Democratic nominee [[Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016|Hillary Clinton]] won the popular vote by over 2 percentage points.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/9/13572112/trump-popular-vote-loss|title=Trump will be the 4th president to win the Electoral College after getting fewer votes than his opponent|last=Chang|first=Alvin|newspaper=[[Vox (website)|Vox]]|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/21/election-results-electoral-popular-votes-trump-clinton/94214826/|title=Clinton's popular vote lead surpasses 2 million|newspaper=[[USA Today]]|language=en|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> This meant that Donald Trump would have picked up [[United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2016|New Hampshire]], [[Nevada]], and [[United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2016|Minnesota]] if the popular vote had been tied, assuming a uniform shift among the battleground states.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/|title=Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else|date=November 11, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/|title=Clinton's Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win|date=September 22, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> On the other hand, Clinton would have had to win the popular vote by at least 3 points to win the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]], as Trump, the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] nominee, won the tipping-point state of [[United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016|Wisconsin]] by less than 1 percent.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/|title=The End Of A Republican Party|last=Malone|first=Clare|date=July 18, 2016|newspaper=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=January 27, 2017}}</ref> 

In 2020, Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 4 percentage points but won the tipping point state of Pennsylvania by only 1 percent. This shows Donald Trump could win the election even if he lost the popular vote by over 3 percent and would have picked up Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin with a uniform shift among the states.

In 2024, Donald Trump won the popular vote by a narrow margin of 1.5%, while winning the tipping point state of Pennsylvania by a similarly narrow margin of 1.7% percent. This is evidence of an erosion of the popular vote advantage that Democratic candidates have typically enjoyed in recent elections, likely spurred by a significant narrowing of margins in safe blue states such as New York, New Jersey, and Illinois, which each saw dramatic shifts toward the Republican candidate, as well as dramatic increases in the Republican support in moderately red states such as Florida and Texas compared to previous cycles. 

Swing states have generally changed over time. For instance, the swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Connecticut]], [[Indiana]], [[New Jersey]] and New York were key to the outcome of the [[1888 United States presidential election|1888 election]].<ref>{{Cite web |title=HarpWeek {{!}} Elections {{!}} 1888 Overview |url=https://elections.harpweek.com/1888/Overview-1888-4.asp |access-date=2023-12-20 |website=elections.harpweek.com |page=4}}</ref> Likewise, [[Illinois]]<ref>"[https://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/21/national/21daley.html Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses]", [[David Rosenbaum (journalist)|David Rosenbaum]], ''[[New York Times]]'', April 21, 2005.</ref> and [[Texas]] were key to the outcome of the [[1960 United States presidential election|1960 election]], Florida and [[New Hampshire]] were key in deciding the [[2000 United States presidential election|2000 election]], and Ohio was important during the [[2004 United States presidential election|2004 election]]. Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980,<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/02/arts/02camp.html Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes], Julie Salamon, "[[The New York Times]]", October 2, 2004</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Ellenberg |first=Jordan |date=2004-10-25 |title=Game Theory for Swingers |language=en-US |work=Slate |url=https://slate.com/human-interest/2004/10/bush-and-kerry-do-swing-state-math.html |access-date=2023-12-20 |issn=1091-2339}}</ref> and did not vote against the winner between 1960 and 2020.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html|title=Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins|newspaper=[[The New York Times]]|date=November 3, 2020}}</ref> In the [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 election]], Ohio and Florida had shifted rightward and were considered safe wins for Republicans.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-10-14 |title=Why Ohio is not considered a swing state in this year's presidential election |url=https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/state/why-ohio-is-not-considered-a-swing-state-in-this-years-presidential-election |access-date=2024-11-06 |website=News 5 Cleveland WEWS |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Anderson |first=Zac |title=How America's largest swing state lost its swing and went from purple to red |url=https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/07/florida-no-longer-swing-maga-stronghold/75465191007/ |access-date=2024-11-06 |website=Tallahassee Democrat |language=en-US}}</ref> 

In fact, only three people have won the presidential election without winning Ohio since 1900: [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]], [[John F. Kennedy]], and [[Joe Biden]]. Areas considered battlegrounds in the [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 election]] were Arizona, Florida, Georgia,<ref name="georgiaswing">{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/08/georgia-swing-state-democrats/?arc404=true|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|title=How Georgia became a swing state for the first time in decades|access-date=7 Jan 2021|date=8 Nov 2020}}</ref> Iowa, [[Maine's 2nd congressional district]], Michigan, [[Minnesota]], [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district]], Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, [[Texas]] and Wisconsin,<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/361607-how-dem-insiders-rank-the-2020-contenders/|title=How Dem insiders rank the 2020 contenders|last=Weaver|first=Dustin|date=November 24, 2017|work=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]|access-date=January 13, 2018}}</ref> with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin constituting the "Big Five" most likely to decide the Electoral College.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-2020-electoral-map-could-be-the-smallest-in-years-heres-why/2019/08/31/61d4bc9a-c9a9-11e9-a1fe-ca46e8d573c0_story.html|title=The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. Here's why.|last=Balz|first=Dan|date=August 31, 2019|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|access-date=January 5, 2019}}</ref> In the end, Joe Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, NE-02, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while [[Donald Trump]] won ME-02, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Campaign strategies are not universal in swing states. Statistical analytics website [[FiveThirtyEight]] notes that some swing states, such as [[New Hampshire]], swing because they have many moderate, independent swing voters, and campaigning puts an emphasis on persuading voters. Contrasting this is [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], which is a swing state because it has large populations of Republican-leaning evangelical whites and Democratic-leaning Black voters and urban college-educated professionals, thus campaigns often concentrate on voter turnout.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=2022-07-22 |title=New Hampshire Is Tiny And Pretty Weird. That Could Help Maggie Hassan. |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/new-hampshire-is-tiny-and-pretty-weird-that-could-help-maggie-hassan/ |access-date=2022-07-31 |website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US}}</ref>

==Determining swing states==
Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. While swing states in past elections can be determined simply by looking at how close the vote was in each state, determining states likely to be swing states in future elections requires estimation and projection based on previous election results, opinion polling, political trends, recent developments since the previous election, and any strengths or weaknesses of the particular candidate involved. The swing-state "map" transforms between each election cycle, depending on the candidates and their policies, sometimes dramatically and sometimes subtly. 

For example, in the [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 election]], Hillary Clinton overperformed in educated, suburban states such as Colorado and Virginia compared to past Democratic candidates, while Donald Trump performed above standard Republican expectations in the [[Rust Belt]], such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. For example, many currently [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] states, like [[Arkansas]], [[Missouri]], [[Tennessee]], and [[West Virginia]], had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0621print.html|title=Battleground States Poll – June 21, 2004|date=June 21, 2004|website=[[The Wall Street Journal]]|language=en-US|access-date=July 5, 2017}}</ref>

According to a pre-election 2016 analysis, the thirteen most competitive states were [[Wisconsin]], [[Pennsylvania]], [[New Hampshire]], [[Minnesota]], [[Arizona]], [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]], [[Virginia]], [[Florida]], [[Michigan]], [[Nevada]], [[Colorado]], [[North Carolina]], and [[Maine]]. [[Nebraska's 2nd congressional district]] was (and is still as of 2024) also considered competitive.<ref name="the-only-thing-that-matters"/> However, this projection was not specific to any particular [[United States presidential election|election cycle]], and assumed similar levels of support for both [[Political parties in the United States|parties]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-electoral-college-pennsylvania-moves-toward-clinton/|title=Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: Pennsylvania Moves Toward Clinton |website=centerforpolitics.org |access-date=September 30, 2015}}</ref>

Ten weeks before the 2020 presidential election, statistical analytics website [[FiveThirtyEight]] noted that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes", with some states moving rightward, other states moving leftward, and two states (Florida, until the 2020 election, and [[North Carolina]]) described as "perennial" swing states.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200826152317/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/|url-status=dead|archive-date=August 26, 2020|title=Is The Electoral Map Changing?|date=August 26, 2020|website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=September 1, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201208110320/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/|url-status=dead|archive-date=December 8, 2020|title=How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map|date=December 8, 2020|website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|language=en-US|access-date=October 11, 2022}}</ref> Likewise, an analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing, with [[Colorado]] and [[Ohio]] becoming less competitive and more Democratic and Republican, respectively, while [[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]] and [[Arizona]] were slowly turning into swing states.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/new-election-map-ohio-colorado-no-longer-swing-states-n937646|title=New election map: Ohio, Colorado no longer swing states|publisher=NBC News|last1=Chinni|first1=Dante|last2=Bronston|first2=Sally|date=November 18, 2018|access-date=November 19, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/|title=States of Play: Georgia|publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball|last1=Coleman|first1=J. Miles|last2=Francis|first2=Niles|date=July 9, 2020|access-date=November 19, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-post-labor-day-sprint-part-two-the-electoral-college/|title=The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part Two: The Electoral College|publisher=Sabato's Crystal Ball|last1=Sabato|first1=Larry J.|last2=Kondik|first2=Kyle|last3=Coleman|first3=J. Miles|date=September 10, 2020|access-date=November 19, 2020}}</ref>

== Criticism ==
{{main article|United States Electoral College#Impacts and reception|l1=Criticisms of the Electoral College}}
The Electoral College encourages political campaigners to focus most of their efforts on courting voters in swing states. States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually targeted at a higher rate with campaign visits, television advertising, and [[get out the vote]] efforts by party organizers and debates. According to Katrina vanden Heuvel, a journalist for ''[[The Nation]]'', "four out of five" voters in the national election are "absolutely ignored".<ref name="tws2H14">{{cite news |author=vanden Heuvel |first=Katrina |date=November 7, 2012 |title=It's Time to End the Electoral College |work=The Nation |url=http://www.thenation.com/blog/171115/its-time-end-electoral-college |access-date=November 8, 2012 |quote=Electoral college defenders offer a range of arguments, from the openly anti-democratic (direct election equals mob rule), to the nostalgic (we’ve always done it this way), to the opportunistic (your little state will be ignored! More vote-counting means more controversies! The Electoral College protects hurricane victims!). But none of those arguments overcome this one: One person, one vote.}}</ref>

Since most states use a [[Plurality voting system|winner-takes-all]] arrangement, in which the candidate with the most votes in that state receives all of the state's electoral votes, there is a clear incentive to focus almost exclusively on only a few undecided states. In contrast, many states with large populations such as California, Texas and New York have in recent elections been considered "safe" for a particular party, and therefore not a priority for campaign visits and money. Meanwhile, twelve of the thirteen smallest states are thought of as safe for either party – only New Hampshire is regularly a swing state.<ref name="GeorgeEdwards">{{Cite book |last=Edwards III |first=George C. |title=Why the Electoral College is Bad for America |publisher=Yale University Press |year=2011 |isbn=978-0-300-16649-1 |edition=Second |location=New Haven, Connecticut and London, England |pages=1, 37, 61, 176–177, 193–194 |language=en}}</ref> Additionally, campaigns stopped mounting nationwide electoral efforts in the last few months near/at the ends of the blowout 2008 election, but rather targeted only a handful of battlegrounds.<ref name="GeorgeEdwards" />

==Swing states by results==
{{See also|Tipping-point state}}
This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of [[Nate Silver]] for determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory.<ref name="strategy">{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ |website=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|access-date=February 26, 2019 |date=February 6, 2017}}</ref> In this method, states and DC are ordered by margin of victory, then tabulating which states were required to get to 270+ electoral votes in margin order. The tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect, along with the "bias" which is the difference between the final margin in the tipping point state and final popular vote margin. This takes into account inherent electoral college advantages; for example, Michigan was the closest state in 2016 by result, and Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote result, but the tipping points that most mattered for assembling a 270 electoral vote coalition were Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.<ref name="strategy" />
{| class="wikitable sortable"
|+Swing states and tipping point states in presidential elections, 2004–2024
|-
!  [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 election]] !! Margin !! [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 election]] !! Margin !! [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 election]] !! Margin !! [[2012 United States presidential election|2012 election]] !! Margin !! [[2008 United States presidential election|2008 election]] !! Margin !! [[2004 United States presidential election|2004 election]] !! Margin
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey|New Jersey]] || 5.91%D || {{nowrap|[[2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 7.35%D || [[2016 United States presidential election in Maine|Maine]] || 2.96%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 6.94%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 12.49%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 2.50%D
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] || 5.78%D || [[2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 7.11%D || [[2016 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 2.42%D || [[2012 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 6.68%D || [[2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] || 10.32%D || {{nowrap|[[2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 1.37%D
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 4.24%D || [[2020 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]] || 2.78%D || [[2016 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 1.52%D || [[2012 United States presidential election in Iowa|Iowa]] || 5.81%D || [[2008 United States presidential election in Minnesota|Minnesota]] || 10.24%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] || 0.38%D
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| {{nowrap|[[2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 2.78%D || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 2.39%D || {{nowrap|[[2016 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 0.37%D || {{nowrap|[[2012 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 5.58%D || {{nowrap|[[2008 United States presidential election in New Hampshire|New Hampshire]]}} || 9.61%D ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| [[2004 United States presidential election in Iowa|Iowa]] ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.67%R
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| {{Party shading/Republican}}|[[2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]] || {{Party shading/Republican}}|0.87%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] || 1.16%D  || {{Party shading/Republican}}| [[2016 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]] ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.23%R || [[2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]] || 5.38%D || [[2008 United States presidential election in Iowa|Iowa]] || 9.53%D ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| [[2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico|New Mexico]] ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.79%R
|-{{Party shading/Democratic}}
| {{Party shading/Republican}}|[[2024 United States presidential election in Michigan|Michigan]] || {{Party shading/Republican}}|1.41%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| '''[[2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]]'''<ref name="tp2020" group="note">If Donald Trump were able to hold onto Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, the result would have been a 269–269 electoral tie decided in the House of Representatives.  Wisconsin is the tipping point for Biden's coalition; to avoid needing Congress, Trump would have to have won Pennsylvania as well, although Trump would have been favored in the House due to the tie-breaking rules specified in the [[Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution|Twelfth Amendment]].</ref> || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.63%D || {{Party shading/Republican}}| '''[[2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]]'''<ref name="tp2016" group="note"/> ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 0.72%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| '''[[2012 United States presidential election in Colorado|Colorado]]''' ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 5.36%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| '''[[2008 United States presidential election in Colorado|Colorado]]''' ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 8.95%D ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| '''[[2004 United States presidential election in Ohio|Ohio]]''' ||{{Party shading/Republican}}| 2.11%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| '''[[2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]]''' || 1.71%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.31%D || '''[[2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin|Wisconsin]]'''<ref name="tp2016" group="note">The 2016 election had two possible tipping point states, depending on how they are calculated.  If [[faithless elector]]s are ignored, then Wisconsin was the tipping point in 2016; if they are included, then Donald Trump's loss of 2 EV's from faithless electors means that Pennsylvania is also required for his coalition to reach 270 electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton's loss of 5 EV's does not change that Wisconsin remains the tipping point for her potential coalition.</ref> || 0.77%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 3.88%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 6.30%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 2.59%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] || 2.20%R || {{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2020 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.24%D  || [[2016 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] || 1.20%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Ohio|Ohio]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 2.98%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Ohio|Ohio]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 4.59%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Colorado|Colorado]] || 4.67%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
|[[2024 United States presidential election in Nevada|Nevada]] || 3.10%R || [[2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 1.35%R || [[2016 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] || 3.55%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2012 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.88%D ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 2.82%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] || 5.01%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 3.21%R || [[2020 United States presidential election in Florida|Florida]] || 3.36%R|| [[2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 3.66%R || [[2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] || 2.04%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in Indiana|Indiana]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 1.03%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Missouri|Missouri]] || 7.20%R
|-{{Party shading/Republican}}
| [[2024 United States presidential election in Arizona|Arizona]] || 5.53%R || [[2020 United States presidential election in Texas|Texas]] || 5.58%R || [[2016 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] || 5.13%R || [[2012 United States presidential election in Georgia|Georgia]] || 7.82%R ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| [[2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina|North Carolina]] ||{{Party shading/Democratic}}| 0.33%D || [[2004 United States presidential election in Virginia|Virginia]] || 8.20%R
|-
| ''National'' || 1.48%R || ''National'' || 4.45%D || ''National'' || 2.10%D || ''National'' || 3.86%D || ''National'' || 7.27%D || ''National'' || 2.46%R
|-
| ''Bias'' || 0.23%R || ''Bias'' || 3.82%R || ''Bias'' || 2.87%R || ''Bias'' || 1.51%D || ''Bias'' || 1.68%D || ''Bias'' || 0.35%D
|}

{{reflist|group=note}}

== See also ==

* [[Bellwether]]
* [[Blue wall (United States)]]
* [[Marginal seat]]
* [[Missouri bellwether]]
* [[Purple America]]
* [[Red states and blue states]]

==References==
{{reflist|30em}}

==External links==
*[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/03/04/critical_big_five_swing_states_electoral_map_obama_ohio_florida_virginia__wisconsin_colorado_109116.html The Critical 2012 Swing States]
*[https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2008/06/08/GR2008060800566.html Battleground States 2008] via the [[Washington Post]]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20070125003904/http://www.swingstatethemovie.com/ Swing State Ohio Documentary]
* [http://www.inthezoneproductions.net Swing State feature documentary project]
* {{cite web |url=https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/06/can-kerry-lose-missouri-and-win-the-white-house.html |website=[[Slate (magazine)|Slate]] |title=The Swing States |first1=Chris |last1=Suellentrop |date=June 4, 2004 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20040608050406/http://slate.msn.com/id/2101779/ |archive-date= Jun 8, 2004 }}
* {{cite web |url=http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/battleground04.html |title=Battleground states |website=Democracy in Action |publisher=[[George Washington University]] |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170313110901/http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/battleground04.html |archive-date= Mar 13, 2017 }}
* "[https://web.archive.org/web/20120825102042/http://www.mit.edu/~mi22295/elections.html How close were U.S. Presidential Elections? – Influential States]" – Michael Sheppard
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20040719200705/http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-07-08-Undecideds.pdf The Bush campaign memo detailing its look at the swing states (PDF file)]

{{United States presidential elections}}

[[Category:United States presidential elections terminology]]
[[Category:Electoral geography of the United States]]
[[Category:Centrism in the United States]]
[[Category:United States Electoral College|>]]
[[Category:Psephology]]