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{{Short description|American statistician and writer (born 1978)}}
{{about|the author and statistician|the American football player|Nate Silver (quarterback)|the American filmmaker|Nathan Silver}}
{{Use American English|date=November 2023}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=March 2024}}
{{primary sources|date=June 2025}}
{{Infobox person
| name               = Nate Silver
| image              = Nate silver poker.jpg
| caption            = Nate Silver playing poker at Manifest 2023, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California
| birth_name         = Nathaniel Read Silver
| birth_date         = {{Birth date and age|1978|1|13}}<ref>{{cite web|url=https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/21073371737|title=Nate Silver tweet|publisher=Twitter.com|date=August 13, 2010|access-date=August 21, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120220235453/http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/21073371737|archive-date=February 20, 2012|url-status=live}}</ref>
| birth_place        = [[East Lansing, Michigan]], U.S.
| known_for          = [[PECOTA]], ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'', Silver Bulletin
| education          = [[University of Chicago]] ([[Bachelor of Arts|A.B.]])
| occupation         = Statistician, journalist
| years_active       = 2000–present
| website            = {{URL|natesilver.net/|natesilver.net}}
}}
'''Nathaniel Read Silver''' (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, political analyst, author, sports gambler, and [[poker player]] who [[Sabermetrics|analyzes baseball]], basketball and [[Psephology|elections]]. He is the founder of ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'' and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] until May 2023.<ref name=":0" /> Since departing ''FiveThirtyEight'', Silver has been publishing in his online newsletter ''Silver Bulletin''<ref name="SemaforSilver" /> and serves as an advisor to [[Polymarket]].<ref name=":1" />

Silver was named one of [[Time 100|the world's 100 most influential people]] by ''[[Time (magazine)|Time]]'' in 2009 after his election forecasting model correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of 50 states in the [[2008 United States presidential election|2008 U.S. presidential election]].<ref name="specials1">{{cite magazine|last=Stein|first=Joel|url=http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/0,28757,1894410,00.html|title=The World's Most Influential People – The 2009 TIME 100|magazine=TIME|access-date=May 8, 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090508170110/http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/0,28757,1894410,00.html|archive-date=May 8, 2009|url-status=dead}}</ref> His subsequent models predicted the outcome of the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]] and [[2020 United States presidential election|2020 presidential elections]] with high accuracy. Although he gave [[Donald Trump]], the eventual winner, a 28.6% chance of victory in the [[2016 United States presidential election|2016 presidential election]],<ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=June 29, 2016 |title=2016 Election Forecast |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ |access-date=November 7, 2023 |website=FiveThirtyEight |language=en |archive-date=November 8, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161108213036/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ |url-status=dead }}</ref> this was a higher estimate than any other scientific forecast.<ref name="New York Times 2016-11-08">{{cite news |last=Katz |first=Josh |url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html#other-forecasts |title=Who Will Be President? |work=The New York Times |date=November 8, 2016 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20211021132052/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html#other-forecasts |archivedate=October 21, 2021 }}</ref>

Much of Silver's approach can be characterized by using statistical models to understand complex social systems such as professional sports, the popularity of political platforms and elections.

==Early life and education==
Silver was born in [[East Lansing, Michigan]], to Sally (née Thrun), a [[community activist]], and Brian David Silver, a former chair of the [[political science]] department at [[Michigan State University]].<ref>{{cite news|url=https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/lansingstatejournal/access/1701930301.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Jul+05%2C+2008&author=Derek+Wallbank&pub=Lansing+State+Journal&desc=E.L.+native's+predictions+pitch+politics+a+curveball&pqatl=google|title=Wallbank, ''Lansing State Journal''|publisher=Pqasb.pqarchiver.com|date=July 5, 2008|access-date=August 21, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120725065922/http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/lansingstatejournal/access/1701930301.html?FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS%3AFT&type=current&date=Jul+05%2C+2008&author=Derek+Wallbank&pub=Lansing+State+Journal&desc=E.L.+native%27s+predictions+pitch+politics+a+curveball&pqatl=google|archive-date=July 25, 2012|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=SI-VqAT4_hYC&q=Sally+Thrun+Silver&pg=PT474 |title=The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't|isbn=978-1-101-59595-4|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160629122921/https://books.google.com/books?id=SI-VqAT4_hYC&pg=PT474&lpg=PT474&dq=Sally+Thrun+Silver&source=bl&ots=7nKOV7bgJI&sig=0RRuzd5T9IaNxpYdV4I6atPNafU&hl=en |archive-date=June 29, 2016 |url-status=live |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |date=September 27, 2012|publisher=Penguin |quote=The numbers have no way of speaking for themselves. We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning}}</ref> Silver's mother's family was of [[English Americans|English]] and [[German Americans|German]] descent. His maternal great-grandfather, Harmon Lewis, was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc.<ref name=intfi1>{{cite news|last=Bloom|first=Nate|author-link= Nate Bloom|url=http://www.interfaithfamily.com/arts_and_entertainment/popular_culture/Interfaith_Celebrities_Nate_Silver_Another_Bond_and_Happy_Endings.shtml|title=Interfaith Celebrities: Nate Silver, Another Bond, and Happy Endings|newspaper=[[InterfaithFamily]]|access-date=December 5, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140827002622/http://www.interfaithfamily.com/arts_and_entertainment/popular_culture/Interfaith_Celebrities_Nate_Silver_Another_Bond_and_Happy_Endings.shtml|archive-date=August 27, 2014|url-status=live}} This source also gives the origin of Silver's middle name, Read, which was shared by his mother's mother and sister. Silver has a namesake, "Nathaniel Read" in the family line that dates from the early 18th century.</ref> Silver's father's family includes two uncles—[[Leon Silver]] and [[Caswell Silver]]—who were distinguished geologists. Silver has described himself as "[[half-Jewish]]".<ref name=intfi1/><ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/answer-this-nate-silver-082071 |title=Answer This: Nate Silver - Patrick Gavin |date=October 5, 2012 |publisher=Politico.Com |access-date=December 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140329101425/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82071.html |archive-date=March 29, 2014 |url-status=live }}</ref>

Silver showed a proficiency in math from a young age.<ref>{{cite web|last=Clifford |first=Stephanie |date=November 9, 2008 |title=Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html |work=The New York Times |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150224063509/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html |archive-date=February 24, 2015}}</ref> According to journalist William Hageman, "Silver caught the baseball bug when he was 6.... It was 1984, the year the [[Detroit Tigers]] won the [[World Series]]. The Tigers became his team and baseball his sport. And if there's anything that goes hand in glove with baseball, it's numbers, another of Silver's childhood interests. ('It's always more interesting to apply it to batting averages than algebra class.')"<ref>{{cite web |last=Hageman |first=William |date=January 4, 2006 |title=Baseball by the Numbers |url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2006-01-04-0601040237-story.html |work=Chicago Tribune |access-date=March 23, 2021 |archive-date=April 5, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230405045303/https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2006-01-04-0601040237-story.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

Silver first showed his journalism skills as a writer and opinion page editor for ''The Portrait'', East Lansing High School's student newspaper, from 1993–1996.<ref>{{cite web |last=Swasko |first=Mick |date=November 8, 2012 |title=Drunk Nate Silver? Here's a yearbook photo before he could drink |url=http://www.redeyechicago.com/news/redeye-drunk-nate-silver-heres-a-yearbook-photo-before-he-could-drink-20121108,0,6368696.story |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108195645/http://www.redeyechicago.com/news/redeye-drunk-nate-silver-heres-a-yearbook-photo-before-he-could-drink-20121108,0,6368696.story |archive-date=November 8, 2012 |access-date=November 8, 2012}}</ref> Silver won first place in the state of [[Michigan]] in the 49th  [[John S. Knight]] Scholarship Contest for senior high school [[debate]]rs in 1996.<ref>"East Lansing Debater Wins Scholarship", ''[[Detroit Free Press]]'' (February 29, 1996). Also see Patricia Montemurri, "Michigan native Nate Silver shows election predictions aren't magic but math", [http://www.freep.com/article/20121111/NEWS15/311110221/Michigan-native-Nate-Silver-shows-election-predictions-aren-t-magic-but-math?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE ''Detroit Free Press'', November 11, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150924113619/http://www.freep.com/article/20121111/NEWS15/311110221/Michigan-native-Nate-Silver-shows-election-predictions-aren-t-magic-but-math?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE|date=September 24, 2015}}</ref>

In 2000, Silver graduated with honors with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the [[University of Chicago]]. He also wrote for the ''[[Chicago Weekly|Chicago Weekly News]]'' and the ''[[Chicago Maroon]]''. He spent his third year at the [[London School of Economics]].<ref>{{cite web|last=Silver |first=Nate |date=May 25, 2009 |title=Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe |url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/random-pretentious-observations-from.html |work=FiveThirtyEight |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090528075838/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/random-pretentious-observations-from.html |archive-date=May 28, 2009}}</ref>{{fv|date=June 2025}}

==Early career: 2000–2008 ==

===Economic consultant: 2000–2004===
After college graduation in 2000, Silver worked for three and a half years as a [[transfer pricing]] consultant with [[KPMG]] in Chicago. When asked in 2009, "What is your biggest regret in life?" Silver responded, "Spending four years of my life at a job I didn't like".<ref>Stephen J. Dubner, "FREAK-Quently Asked Questions: Nate Silver", [http://freakonomics.com/2009/03/12/freak-quently-asked-questions-nate-silver/ ''freakonomics.com'', March 12, 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180817161451/http://freakonomics.com/2009/03/12/freak-quently-asked-questions-nate-silver/ |date=August 17, 2018 }}.</ref> While employed at KPMG, Silver continued to nurture his lifelong interest in baseball and statistics, and on the side he began to work on his [[PECOTA]] system for projecting player performance and careers. He quit his job at KPMG in April 2004 and for a time earned his living mainly by playing [[online poker]].<ref>{{cite web|last=Kaiser |first=Rob |date=October 3, 2004 |title=Players Place Bets on Poker as Career |url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/2004/10/03/players-place-bets-on-poker-as-career/ |work=[[Chicago Tribune]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130115164158/http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2004-10-03/business/0410030372_1_online-poker-poker-sites-interest-in-online-gaming |archive-date=January 15, 2013 |url-status=live |access-date=January 15, 2013}}</ref> According to ''Sports Illustrated'' writer [[Alexander Wolff]], over a three-year period Silver earned $400,000 from online poker.<ref>{{cite magazine|last=Wolff |first=Alexander |date=September 17, 2012 |title=Scorecard: He's ''So'' Predictable |url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1205991/index.htm |magazine=Sports Illustrated |page=15 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121026023924/http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1205991/index.htm |archive-date=October 26, 2012 |access-date=October 26, 2012}}.</ref>

===Baseball analyst: 2003–2008===
In 2003, Silver became a writer for ''[[Baseball Prospectus]]'' (BP), after having sold PECOTA to BP in return for a partnership interest. After resigning from KPMG in 2004, he took the position of Executive Vice-President, later renamed Managing Partner of BP. Silver further developed PECOTA and wrote a weekly column under the heading "Lies, Damned Lies". He applied [[sabermetric]] techniques to a broad range of topics including forecasting the performance of individual players, the economics of baseball, metrics for the [[Valuation (finance)|valuation]] of players, and developing an [[Elo rating system]] for Major League baseball.<ref>{{cite web | last=Silver| first=Nate | title=Lies, Damned Lies: We are Elo? | website=Baseball Prospectus | date=June 28, 2006 | url=https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/5247/lies-damned-lies-we-are-elo/|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070206112913/http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5247 |archive-date=February 6, 2007}} {{cite news | last=Silver| first=Nate| title=Lies, Damned Lies: More on Elo | website=Baseball Prospectus | date=July 5, 2006 | url=https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/5271/lies-damned-lies-more-on-elo/|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070210031318/http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5271 |archive-date=February 10, 2007}}</ref>

Between 2003 and 2009, Silver co-authored the ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual book of [[Major League Baseball]] forecasts,<ref>''Baseball Prospectus'' ({{isbn|0-7611-3995-8}})</ref> as well as other books, including ''Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning'',<ref>''Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning'' (New York: Workman Publishers, 2005) ({{isbn|0-7611-4018-2}})</ref> ''Baseball Between the Numbers'',<ref>''Baseball Between the Numbers'' (New York: Basic Books, 2006) ({{isbn|0-465-00596-9}})</ref> and ''It Ain't Over 'til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book''.<ref>''It Ain't Over 'til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book'' (New York: Basic Books, 2007) ({{isbn|0-465-00284-6}})</ref>

He contributed articles about baseball to [[ESPN.com]], ''[[Sports Illustrated]]'', ''[[Slate (magazine)|Slate]]'', the ''[[New York Sun]]'', and ''[[The New York Times]]''.<ref>Nate Silver, "For Griffey, the Roads Not Taken", [https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/sports/baseball/11score.html ''The New York Times'', May 11, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802054248/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/sports/baseball/11score.html |date=August 2, 2017 }}.</ref>

Silver wrote more than 200 articles for ''Baseball Prospectus''.<ref>{{Cite web |title=All Articles by Nate Silver |author= |website=Baseball Prospectus |date= |access-date=October 26, 2022 |url= https://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/nate_silver/|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110912144035/http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/?author=59 |archive-date=September 12, 2011}}</ref>

====PECOTA====
{{Main|PECOTA}}
PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system that projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers. It is designed primarily for two users: fans interested in [[fantasy baseball]], and professionals in the baseball business trying to predict the performance and [[valuation (finance)|valuation]] of major league players. Unlike most other baseball projection systems, PECOTA relies on matching a given current player to a set of "comparable" players whose past performance can serve as a guide to how the given current player is likely to perform in the future. Unlike most other such systems, PECOTA also calculates a range of probable performance levels rather than a single predicted value on a given measure such as [[earned run average]] or [[batting average (baseball)|batting average]].

PECOTA projections were first published by [[Baseball Prospectus]] in the 2003 edition of its annual book as well as online by ''BaseballProspectus.com.'' Silver produced the PECOTA forecasts for each [[Major League Baseball]] season from 2003 through 2009.<ref name="baseballprospectus1">{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |last2=Goldstein |first2=Kevin |date=March 24, 2009 |title=State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009" |url=http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8653 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090327063757/http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8653 |archive-date=March 27, 2009 |website=Baseball Prospectus}}</ref>

==''FiveThirtyEight'': 2008–2023==

===''FiveThirtyEight'' blog===
{{Main|FiveThirtyEight}}

====Creation and motivation====
[[File:Nate_Silver_2009.png|thumb|Silver at [[South by Southwest|SXSW]] in 2009]]On November 1, 2007, while still employed by Baseball Prospectus, Silver began publishing a diary under the pseudonym "Poblano" on the progressive political blog ''[[Daily Kos]].''<ref>The first diary was titled, "HRC [Hillary Roddam Clinton] Electability in Purple States, [http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/01/405019/-HRC-Electability-in-Purple-States ''DailyKos'', November 1, 2007] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121028010032/http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/01/405019/-HRC-Electability-in-Purple-States |date=October 28, 2012 }}.</ref> Silver set out to analyze quantitative aspects of the political game to enlighten a broader audience. Silver reports that "he was stranded in a New Orleans airport when the idea of ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' came to him. 'I was just frustrated with the analysis. ... I saw a lot of discussion about strategy that was not all that sophisticated, especially when it came to quantitative things like polls and demographics'".<ref>{{cite web|last=Hayes |first=Hannah |date=January 2009 |title=What Will Nate Silver Do Next? |url=https://www.uchicago.edu/features/20090126_silver.shtml |website=University of Chicago |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110606102224/http://www.uchicago.edu/features/20090126_silver.shtml |archive-date=June 6, 2011 |access-date=June 6, 2011}}.</ref> His forecasts of the 2008 [[United States presidential primary]] elections drew considerable attention, including being cited by ''[[The New York Times]]'' op-ed columnist [[Bill Kristol]].<ref>{{cite web|last=Kristol |first=William |date=February 11, 2008 |title=Obama's Path to Victory |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html |work=The New York Times |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161229070940/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11kristol.html |archive-date=December 29, 2016}}</ref>

On March 7, 2008, while still writing as "Poblano", Silver established his own blog, ''[[FiveThirtyEight.com]]''. Often colloquially referred to as just 538, the website takes its name from the number of electors in the United States [[Electoral College (United States)|electoral college]].<ref name="faq">{{cite web|url=http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html|title=Frequently Asked Questions|last=Silver|first=Nate|work=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|access-date=November 4, 2008|date=August 7, 2008|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140227173932/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html|archive-date=February 27, 2014|url-status=dead}}</ref>

On May 30, 2008, Poblano revealed his identity to ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' readers.<ref>Nate Silver, "No I'm Not [[Chuck Todd]]", [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html ''FiveThirtyEight.com,'' May 30, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081204075532/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html |date=December 4, 2008 }}.</ref> On June 1, 2008, Silver published a two-page op-ed in the ''[[New York Post]]'' outlining the rationale underlying his focus on the statistical aspects of politics.<ref>Nate Silver, "Margins of Error", [http://www.nypost.com/seven/06012008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/margins_of_error_113360.htm ''New York Post,'' June 1, 2008.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910203021/http://www.nypost.com/seven/06012008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/margins_of_error_113360.htm |date=September 10, 2008 }}</ref> He first appeared on national television on [[CNN]]'s ''[[American Morning]]'' on June 13, 2008.<ref>Nate Silver, "CNN Video", [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/cnn-video.html FiveThirtyEight.com, June 13, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080616201911/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/cnn-video.html |date=June 16, 2008 }}.</ref>

Silver described his partisan orientation as follows in the [[FAQ]] on his website: "My state [Illinois] has non-partisan registration, so I am not registered as anything. I vote for Democratic candidates the majority of the time (though by no means always). This year, I have been a supporter of Barack Obama."<ref name="fivethirtyeight.com">Nate Silver, "Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08", [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html ''FiveThirtyEight.com''] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140227173932/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html |date=February 27, 2014 }}</ref> With respect to the impartiality of his electoral projections, Silver stated, "Are [my] results biased toward [my] preferred candidates? I hope not, but that is for you to decide. I have tried to disclose as much about my methodology as possible."<ref name="fivethirtyeight.com"/>

====2008 election and aftermath====
Shortly after the November 4 election, [[ESPN]] writer [[Jim Caple]] observed, "Forget [[Cole Hamels]] and the [[Phillies]]. No one in baseball had a more impressive fall than Nate Silver.... [R]ight now Silver is exhausted. He barely slept the last couple weeks of the campaign—'By the end, it was full-time plus'—and for that matter, he says he couldn't have kept it up had the campaign lasted two days longer. Plus, he has his Baseball Prospectus duties. 'We write our [''Baseball Prospectus 2009''] book from now through the first of the year,' [Silver] said. 'I have a week to relax and then it gets just as busy again. In February 2009 I will just have to find an island in the Caribbean and throw my [[BlackBerry]] in the ocean.{{' "}}<ref>[[Jim Caple]], "In baseball, and in politics, the numbers don't lie", "Page 2", [https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/081107 Article] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240328140937/https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/081107|date=March 28, 2024}} on ''[[ESPN.com]],'' November 7, 2008 [https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple%2F081107] .</ref>

Later in November 2008, Silver signed a contract with [[Penguin Books|Penguin Group USA]] to write two books, reportedly for a $700,000 advance.<ref>{{cite web|last=Neyfakh |first=Leon |date=November 14, 2008 |title=Nate Silver Signs With Penguin In Two Book Deal Worth About $700,000 |url=http://www.observer.com/2008/media/nate-silver-signs-penguin-two-book-deal-worth-sum-high-six-figures |work=New York Observer |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081202033617/http://www.observer.com/2008/media/nate-silver-signs-penguin-two-book-deal-worth-sum-high-six-figures |archive-date=December 2, 2008}}</ref>

Silver was invited to be a speaker at [[TED (conference)|TED 2009]] in February 2009,<ref>See [http://conferences.ted.com/TED2009/program/ TED2009 program] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081226232833/http://conferences.ted.com/TED2009/program/ |date=December 26, 2008 }} and Shanna Carpenter, "Race and the City: An Exclusive Interview with Nate Silver", [http://blog.ted.com/2009/04/race_and_the_ci.php TED Blog, April 29, 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090430154127/http://blog.ted.com/2009/04/race_and_the_ci.php |date=April 30, 2009 }}.</ref> and keynote speaker at the 2009 [[South by Southwest]] (SXSW) Interactive conference (March 2009).<ref>[[Daniel Terdiman]], "[http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10196750-38.html FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver on life post-election] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120207212530/http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10196750-38.html |date=February 7, 2012 }}", [[CNET.com]], March 15, 2009, and Dan Fost, "[http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2009/03/nate-silver-sxs.html SXSW: Statistics guru Nate Silver talks Oscars, Manny Ramirez and President Obama] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090322122807/http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2009/03/nate-silver-sxs.html |date=March 22, 2009 }}",  ''Los Angeles Times'', March 16, 2009. See [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVM4SIQdmo Video of SXSW Keynote Interview, part 1] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170201031658/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOVM4SIQdmo |date=February 1, 2017 }} and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FygQVyO4lyE part 2] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170201031702/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FygQVyO4lyE |date=February 1, 2017 }}.</ref>

While maintaining his ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' website, in January 2009 Silver began a monthly feature column, "The Data", in ''[[Esquire Magazine|Esquire]]''<ref>{{cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |url=http://www.esquire.com/archive/features/data/0/10/ |archive-url=https://archive.today/20120729061021/http://www.esquire.com/archive/features/data/0/10/ |url-status=dead |archive-date=July 29, 2012 |title=The Data |publisher=[[Esquire (magazine)|Esquire]] |access-date=May 8, 2009 }}</ref> as well as contributed occasional articles to other media such as ''The New York Times''<ref>Nate Silver and [[Andrew Gelman]], "No Country for Close Calls", [https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/opinion/19silver.html ''The New York Times'', April 18, 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802053234/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/opinion/19silver.html |date=August 2, 2017 }}.</ref> and ''The Wall Street Journal''.<ref>Nate Silver, "Crunching the Risk Numbers", [https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703481004574646963713065116 ''The Wall Street Journal'', January 8, 2010] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171124170340/https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703481004574646963713065116 |date=November 24, 2017 }}.</ref> He also tried his luck in the [[2009 World Series of Poker]].<ref name=poker/>

The success of his ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' blog marked the effective end of Silver's career as baseball analyst, though he continued to devote some attention to sports statistics and sports economics in his blog. In March 2009, he stepped down as Managing Partner of Baseball Prospectus and handed over responsibility for producing future PECOTA projections to other Baseball Prospectus staff members.<ref name="baseballprospectus1"/> In April 2009, he appeared as an analyst on ESPN's ''[[Baseball Tonight]]''. After March 2009, he published only two "Lies, Damned Lies" columns on ''BaseballProspectus.com.''

In November 2009, ESPN introduced a new Soccer Power Index (SPi),<ref>[http://soccernet.espn.go.com/spi/rankings ESPN's SPi] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120121041821/http://soccernet.espn.go.com/spi/rankings |date=January 21, 2012 }}.</ref> designed by Nate Silver, for predicting the outcome of the [[2010 FIFA World Cup]].<ref>Nate Silver, "The Purpose of the Soccer Power Index", [http://espn.go.com/soccer/worldcup/news/_/id/4537460/purpose-spi ESPN.com, November 11, 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091114153249/http://espn.go.com/soccer/worldcup/news/_/id/4537460/purpose-spi |date=November 14, 2009 }} and Nate Silver, "A Guide to ESPN's SPI Ratings", [http://espn.go.com/soccer/worldcup/news/_/id/4447078/guide-espn-spi-ratings ''ESPN.com,'' November 11, 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091119065602/http://espn.go.com/soccer/worldcup/news/_/id/4447078/guide-espn-spi-ratings |date=November 19, 2009 }}. For a comment see Carl Bialik, "ESPN's New Soccer Rankings", [https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/11/11/the-count-espns-new-soccer-rankings/ ''The Wall Street Journal'', November 11, 2009] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303165350/http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2009/11/11/the-count-espns-new-soccer-rankings/ |date=March 3, 2016 }}.</ref> He published a post-mortem after the tournament, comparing his predictions to those of alternative rating systems.<ref>Nate Silver, "SPI in review: How did it do?", [http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/columns/story/_/id/5392992/ce/us/soccer-power-index-update?cc=5901&ver=us ''ESPN.com,'' July 19, 2010] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120128160929/http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/columns/story/_/id/5392992/ce/us/soccer-power-index-update?cc=5901&ver=us |date=January 28, 2012 }} [Retrieved July 21, 2010].</ref>

In April 2010, in an assignment for ''[[New York (magazine)|New York]]'' magazine, Silver created a quantitative index of "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York".<ref>{{cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=April 11, 2010 |title=The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York: a quantitative index of the 50 most satisfying places to live |url=https://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65374/ |work=[[New York (magazine)|New York]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120921230530/http://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65374/ |url-status=live |archive-date=September 21, 2012}}.</ref>

====Transition to ''The New York Times''====
On June 3, 2010, Silver announced on FiveThirtyEight

<blockquote>In the near future, the blog will "re-launch" under a NYTimes.com domain. It will retain its own identity (akin to other Times blogs like [[DealBook]]), but will be organized under the <nowiki>News:Politics</nowiki> section. Once this occurs, content will no longer be posted at ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' on an ongoing basis, and the blog will re-direct to the new [[URL]]. In addition, I will be contributing content to the print edition of ''The New York Times'', and to the ''Sunday Magazine''. The partnership agreement, which is structured as a license, has a term of three years.<ref name="FiveThirtyEight.com, June 3, 2010">Nate Silver, "FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times", [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html FiveThirtyEight.com, June 3, 2010] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100606173921/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/fivethirtyeight-to-partner-with-new.html|date=June 6, 2010}}.</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Tenore |first=Mallory Jean |date=June 3, 2011 |title=FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver adjusts to New York Times, 6 months after joining the newsroom |url=http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/top-stories/120212/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom/ |website=Poynter |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110225020129/http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/top-stories/120212/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-adjusts-to-new-york-times-as-a-blogger-6-months-after-joining-the-newsroom/ |archive-date=February 25, 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|last=Sullivan |first=Margaret |date=September 21, 2012 |title=On Identifying a Rape Victim, Naming a Prophet, and Nate Silver's Role |url=http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/on-identifying-a-rape-victim-naming-a-prophet-and-nate-silvers-role-the-public-editor/ |work=The New York Times |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120924061651/http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/on-identifying-a-rape-victim-naming-a-prophet-and-nate-silvers-role-the-public-editor/ |archive-date=September 24, 2012}}</ref></blockquote>

''The New York Times'' "FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus" commenced on August 25, 2010, with the publication of "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats".<ref>{{cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=August 25, 2010 |title=New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/ |work=FiveThirtyEight / The New York Times |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141213005055/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/ |archive-date=December 13, 2014}}</ref> From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 [[United States Senate elections, 2010|U.S. Senate]] and [[United States House of Representatives elections, 2010|U.S. House of Representatives]] elections as well as [[United States gubernatorial elections, 2010|state gubernatorial]] contests. Silver's ''Times Sunday Magazine'' feature first appeared on November 19, 2010, under the heading "Go Figure".<ref>{{cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=November 19, 2010 |title=Go Figure: Who's No. 1? |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/magazine/21fob-gofigure-t.html |work=The New York Times Magazine |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802053119/http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/magazine/21fob-gofigure-t.html |archive-date=August 2, 2017}}</ref> It was later titled "Acts of Mild Subversion".<ref>{{cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=March 17, 2011 |title=How to Beat the Salad Bar |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/magazine/mag-20Subversion-t.html |work=The New York Times |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170117091123/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/20/magazine/mag-20Subversion-t.html |archive-date=January 17, 2017}}</ref>

While blogging for ''The Times,'' Silver also worked on his book about prediction, which was published in September 2012. At that time, Silver began to drop hints that after 2012 he would turn his attention to matters other than detailed statistical forecasting of elections. As reported in ''New York'' magazine: " 'I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil,' he says. And in four [years], he might be even more macro, as he turns his forecasting talents to other fields. 'I'm 97 percent sure that the FiveThirtyEight model will exist in 2016,' he says, 'but it could be someone else who's running it or licensing it.'"<ref>{{cite web|last=Zengerle |first=Jason |date=September 30, 2012 |title=The. Polls. Have. Stopped. Making. Any. Sense. |url=https://nymag.com/news/features/election-polls-2012-10/ |work=New York Magazine |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121001221732/http://nymag.com/news/features/election-polls-2012-10/ |archive-date=October 1, 2012}}</ref>

During the last year of ''FiveThirtyEight''{{'}}s license to ''The New York Times,'' it drew a very large volume of [[web traffic|online traffic]] to the paper:

<blockquote>The Times does not release traffic figures, but a spokesperson said yesterday that Silver's blog provided a significant—and significantly growing, over the past year—percentage of Times pageviews. This fall, visits to the Times' political coverage (including FiveThirtyEight) have increased, both absolutely and as a percentage of site visits. But FiveThirtyEight's growth is staggering: where earlier this year, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of politics visits included a stop at FiveThirtyEight, last week that figure was 71 percent.</blockquote>

<blockquote>But Silver's blog has buoyed more than just the politics coverage, becoming a significant traffic-driver for the site as a whole. Earlier this year, approximately 1 percent of visits to the New York Times included ''FiveThirtyEight.'' Last week, that number was 13 percent. Yesterday, it was 20 percent. That is, one in five visitors to the sixth-most-trafficked U.S. news site took a look at Silver's blog.<ref>{{cite magazine |last=Tracy |first=Marc |date=November 6, 2012 |title=Nate Silver Is a One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times |url=https://newrepublic.com/article/109714/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-blog-drawing-massive-traffic-new-york-times |magazine=The New Republic |access-date=March 23, 2021 |archive-date=February 28, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210228165711/https://newrepublic.com/article/109714/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-blog-drawing-massive-traffic-new-york-times |url-status=live }}</ref></blockquote>

====Departure from ''The Times''====
[[File:Nate Silver on Employee of the Month with Catie Lazarus, December 2015.webm|thumb|Silver on leaving ''The New York Times'']]
In an online chat session a week after the 2012 election Silver commented: "As tempting as it might be to pull a [[Jim Brown]]/[[Sandy Koufax]] and just [[Mic drop|mic-drop]]/retire from elections forecasting, I expect that we'll be making forecasts in 2014 and 2016. Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. But the 2016 [[Republican Party (United States)|G.O.P.]] primary seems almost certain to be epic."<ref>"Skew Yourselves: Nate Silver Is Here To Answer Your Questions", [http://deadspin.com/5960364/skew-yourselves-nate-silver-is-here-to-answer-your-questions Article] at ''[[Deadspin]],'' November 14, 2012 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121117092802/http://deadspin.com/5960364/skew-yourselves-nate-silver-is-here-to-answer-your-questions |date=November 17, 2012 }}.</ref> In late November 2012, ''Times'' executive editor [[Jill Abramson]] declared her wish to keep Silver and his blog: "We would love to have Nate continue to be part of ''The New York Times'' family, and to expand on what he does", she said. "We know he began in sports anyway, so it is not an exclusively political product. I am excited to talk to Nate when he finishes his book tour about ways to expand that kind of reporting."<ref>Alex Weprin, "The New York Times Wants To Keep Nate Silver, 'Expand On What He Does'", ''[[Mediabistro.com|Mediabistro]],'' [http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/the-new-york-times-wants-to-keep-nate-silver-expand-on-what-he-does_b72049 November 27, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121129235733/http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlny/the-new-york-times-wants-to-keep-nate-silver-expand-on-what-he-does_b72049 |date=November 29, 2012 }}. Also see Connor Simpson, "What the Future Holds for Nate Silver at The New York Times", ''[[The Atlantic|Atlantic Wire]],'' [http://www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2012/11/what-future-holds-nate-silver-and-new-york-times/59369/ November 27, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121129171448/http://www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2012/11/what-future-holds-nate-silver-and-new-york-times/59369/ |date=November 29, 2012 }}.</ref>

On July 22, 2013, ESPN (a subsidiary of the [[The Walt Disney Company|Walt Disney Company]]) announced that it had acquired ownership of the ''FiveThirtyEight'' website and brand, and that "Silver will serve as editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months."<ref>{{Cite web |date=2013-07-22 |title=Statistician Silver joins ESPN in versatile role |url=https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/9499752/nate-silver-joins-espn-multifaceted-role |access-date=2024-04-13 |website=ESPN.com |language=en |archive-date=July 25, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130725054022/http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/9499752/nate-silver-joins-espn-multifaceted-role |url-status=live }}</ref>

''The New York Times'' public editor [[Margaret Sullivan (journalist)|Margaret Sullivan]] wrote of Silver's decision to leave for ESPN:

<blockquote>I don't think Nate Silver ever really fit into the Times culture and I think he was aware of that. He was, in a word, disruptive. Much like the [[Brad Pitt]] character in the movie "[[Moneyball (film)|Moneyball]]" disrupted the old model of how to scout baseball players, Nate disrupted the traditional model of how to cover politics.<ref>{{cite news|last=Sullivan|first=Margaret|title=Nate Silver Went Against the Grain for Some at The Times|url=http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/22/nate-silver-went-against-the-grain-for-some-at-the-times/?smid=tw-share|newspaper=The New York Times|access-date=23 July 2013|date=July 22, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141018064539/http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/22/nate-silver-went-against-the-grain-for-some-at-the-times/?smid=tw-share|archive-date=October 18, 2014|url-status=live}}</ref></blockquote>

She added, "A number of traditional and well-respected Times journalists disliked his work."<ref>On the culture clash within ''The Times,'' also see [[John M. Sides]], "One Irony of Nate Silver's Leaving the New York Times", ''[[Washington Monthly]]'', [http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/07/one_irony_of_nate_silvers_leav045992.php# July 24, 2013] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131105025859/http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/07/one_irony_of_nate_silvers_leav045992.php |date=November 5, 2013 }}; and Jim Naureckas, "Nate Silver Didn't Fit In at the New York Times Because He Believed in the Real World", [[Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting|FAIR]], [http://www.fair.org/blog/2013/07/24/nate-silver-didnt-fit-in-at-the-new-york-times-because-he-believed-in-the-real-world/ July 24, 2013] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130728114443/http://www.fair.org/blog/2013/07/24/nate-silver-didnt-fit-in-at-the-new-york-times-because-he-believed-in-the-real-world/ |date=July 28, 2013 }}.</ref> Later, Sullivan wrote in ''The Times'' that "I don't feel so good about not being able to investigate every complaint from every individual reader fully, or about making some misjudgments in individual posts — my Nate Silver commentary, among others, has probably been off-base..."<ref>Although she linked to her "Nate Silver Went Against the Grain" article, Sullivan did not specify in what ways she had been off-base. See Margaret Sullivan, "A Year in the Life of a Watchdog", ''The New York Times'', September 1, 2013.</ref>

[[New York (magazine)|''New York'']] magazine reported that executive editor Jill Abramson "put on a full-court press" to keep Silver at ''The Times'' and that "for Abramson, Silver was a tentpole attraction for her favorite subject, national politics, and brought the kind of buzz she thought valuable", but the company's CEO and President [[Mark Thompson (television executive)|Mark Thompson]] "confirmed that keeping Silver was not at the top of his agenda". The article stated that "the major reason Silver left was because he felt it was Thompson who had not committed to building his franchise. The mixed signals from Thompson and Abramson—his lack of enthusiasm for committing resources to Silver, her desire to keep a major star—frustrated Silver and his lawyer."<ref>{{cite web|last=Hagan |first=Joe |date=August 23, 2013 |title=The Suit in the Newsroom: An unusual Times executive—for unusual times |url=https://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/new-york-times-mark-thompson-2013-9/ |work=[[New York (magazine)|New York Magazine]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130823205937/http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/new-york-times-mark-thompson-2013-9/ |archive-date=August 23, 2013}}</ref>

====Disney ownership and departure from ''FiveThirtyEight''====
When ''FiveThirtyEight'' was relaunched under Disney's ESPN on March 17, 2014, Silver outlined the scope of topics that would be covered under the rubric of "data journalism":<ref name="March 17, 2014">{{cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=March 17, 2014 |title=What the Fox Knows |url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/ |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140317174126/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-fox-knows/ |archive-date=March 17, 2014 |url-status=live |work=FiveThirtyEight}}.</ref>

{{blockquote|We've expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas — politics, economics, science, life and sports.

Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we'll have interactive graphics and features. Within a couple of months we'll launch a podcast, and we'll be collaborating with [[ESPN Films]] and [[Grantland]] to produce original documentary films.}}In 2018, the Walt Disney Company transferred the FiveThirtyEight site from the ESPN division to the [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] division. In April 2023, amid widespread layoffs at Disney and ABC affecting FiveThirtyEight, Silver announced that his contract with ABC would not be extended. After Silver's departure in May, a smaller FiveThirtyEight continued to operate under the data analytics division of ABC News,<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Stieb |first=Matt |date=May 19, 2023 |title=A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight |url=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/fivethirtyeight-hires-g-elliott-morris-loses-nate-silver.html |access-date=August 6, 2023 |website=Intelligencer |language=en-us |archive-date=June 2, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230602055419/https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/05/fivethirtyeight-hires-g-elliott-morris-loses-nate-silver.html |url-status=live }}</ref> until being shut down in March 2025.<ref name="March 5, 2025">{{Cite web |last=Davis |first=Erin |date=March 5, 2025 |title=Disney Is Cutting 200 Jobs, Eliminating FiveThirtyEight, and Consolidating ABC News' '20/20' and 'Nightline' Teams. Here's What We Know.  |url=https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/disney-is-laying-off-6-of-its-workforce-news-divisions/487976 |access-date=April 13, 2025 |website=Entrepreneur|language=en-us |archive-date=April 12, 2025 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20250412222757/https://www.entrepreneur.com/business-news/disney-is-laying-off-6-of-its-workforce-news-divisions/487976 |url-status=live }}</ref>

===''FiveThirtyEight's'' election forecasts===

====2008 U.S. elections====
{{Main|FiveThirtyEight}}
In March 2008, Silver established his blog ''FiveThirtyEight.com,'' in which he developed a system for tracking polls and forecasting the outcome of the 2008 general election. At the same time, he continued making forecasts of the [[Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008|2008 Democratic primary elections]]. That several of his forecasts based on [[demographic analysis]] proved to be substantially more accurate than those of the professional pollsters gained visibility and professional credibility for "Poblano", the pseudonym that Silver was then using.<ref>See, most notably, Mark Blumenthal, "The Poblano Model", [http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php Article] in ''[[National Journal]],'' May 8, 2008 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090414152429/http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php |date=April 14, 2009 }}.</ref>

After the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6, the popularity of ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' surged. Silver recalls the scenario: "I know the polls show it's really tight in NC, but we think Obama is going to win by thirteen, fourteen points, and he did. ... Any time you make a prediction like that people give you probably too much credit for it.... But after that [Silver's and the website's popularity] started to really take off. It's pretty nonlinear, once you get one mention in the mainstream media, other people [quickly follow suit]."<ref>Sean Redmond, "Numerical Order: Famed Statistician Nate Silver Discusses the Future of His Near-Flawless Forecasts", [http://chicagoweekly.net/2009/01/09/numerical-order-famed-statistician-nate-silver-discusses-the-future-of-his-near-flawless-forecasting/ Article] in ''[[Chicago Weekly]]'', January 9, 2009 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100927024826/http://chicagoweekly.net/2009/01/09/numerical-order-famed-statistician-nate-silver-discusses-the-future-of-his-near-flawless-forecasting/ |date=September 27, 2010 }} . On this point see also Silver's discussion in Megan Garber, "Talking Shop: Nate Silver", [https://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/talking_shop_nate_silver.php ''Columbia Journalism Review'', November 11, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081116055812/https://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/talking_shop_nate_silver.php |date=November 16, 2008 }}.</ref>

As a [[CNET]] reporter wrote on election eve, "Even though Silver launched the site as recently as March, its straightforward approach, daring predictions, and short but impressive track record has put it on the map of political sites to follow."<ref>Stephanie Condon, "Q & A: The Formula Behind FiveThirtyEight", [http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10080885-38.html?part=rsssubj=newstag=2547-1_3-0-20 ''CNET News'', November 3, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191216042543/https://www.cnet.com/13578_3-10080885-38.html?part=rsssubj=newstag=2547-1_3-0-20 |date=December 16, 2019 }}.</ref>

Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states and the [[Washington, D.C.|District of Columbia]], missing only the prediction for Indiana. As his model predicted, the races in [[Missouri]] and [[North Carolina]] were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every [[United States Senate|U.S. Senate]] race. The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad,<ref>Editorial, "In Praise of ... Nate Silver", [https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/06/us-elections-nate-silver-predictions ''The Guardian'', November 6, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161121173722/https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/06/us-elections-nate-silver-predictions |date=November 21, 2016 }}.</ref> and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator.<ref>Stephanie Clifford, "Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama", [https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html?scp=5&sq=Stephanie%20Clifford&st=cse ''The New York Times'', November 10, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180821125255/https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/business/media/10silver.html?scp=5&sq=Stephanie%20Clifford&st=cse |date=August 21, 2018 }}.</ref>

[[Barack Obama 2008 presidential campaign|Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign]] signed off on a proposal to share all of its private polling with Silver. After signing a confidentiality agreement, Silver was granted access to hundreds of polls the campaign had conducted.<ref>{{cite book |title= The Victory Lab|last=  Issenberg|first=Sasha |year= 2012|publisher= [[Crown Publishing Group]] |isbn=978-0307954794 |page= 290 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |author=BuzzFeed Politics |url=https://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/obama-campaign-shared-08-polling-with-silver |title="Obama Campaign Shared '08 Polling With Silver" ''BuzzFeed,'' September 5, 2012 |date=September 5, 2012 |publisher=Buzzfeed.com |access-date=December 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131026135718/http://www.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeedpolitics/obama-campaign-shared-08-polling-with-silver |archive-date=October 26, 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref>

====2010 U.S. elections====
{{Main|FiveThirtyEight#2010 U.S. mid-term elections}}
Shortly after ''FiveThirtyEight'' relocated to ''The New York Times'', Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and state governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. Silver eventually published detailed forecasts and analyses of the results for all three sets of elections. He correctly predicted the winner in 34 of the 37 contested Senate races. His 2010 congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in 2008, but were still within the reported [[confidence interval]]. Silver predicted a Republican pickup of 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, ''FiveThirtyEight'' correctly predicted the winner of 36.<ref>Micah Cohen, "38 Days Later", ''The New York Times'', [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/38-days-later/ December 10, 2010] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141011154100/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/10/38-days-later/ |date=October 11, 2014 }}</ref>

====2012 U.S. elections====
{{Main|FiveThirtyEight#2012_U.S._elections|l1=FiveThirtyEight: 2012 U.S. elections}}
Although throughout 2011 Silver devoted a lot of attention on his blog to the 2012 Republican party primaries, his first effort to handicap the 2012 presidential general election appeared as the cover story in ''The New York Times Magazine'' a year prior to the election: "Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election".<ref>Nate Silver, "Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election", [https://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html ''The New York Times Magazine'', November 6, 2011] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170227224935/http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html |date=February 27, 2017 }}.</ref> Accompanying the online release of this article, Silver also published "Choose Obama's Re-Election Adventure", an interactive toy that allowed readers to predict the outcome of the election based on their assumptions about three variables: President Obama's favorability ratings, the rate of GDP growth, and how conservative the Republican opponent would be.<ref>Nate Silver, "Choose Obama's Re-Election Adventure", [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/choose-obamas-re-election-adventure/ ''The New York Times'', November 3, 2011] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150910081523/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/choose-obamas-re-election-adventure/ |date=September 10, 2015 }}</ref> This analysis stimulated a lot of critical discussion.<ref>{{cite web|last=Cohen |first=Micah |date=November 19, 2011 |title=Reads and Reactions |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/reads-reactions-14/ |work=The New York Times |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151009150020/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/reads-reactions-14/ |archive-date=October 9, 2015}}</ref>

While publishing numerous stories on the Republican primary elections, in mid-February 2012 Silver reprised and updated his previous ''Magazine'' story with another one, "What Obama Should Do Next".<ref>Nate Silver, "Why Obama Will Embrace the 99 Percent", [https://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/09/europe-201109 ''The New York Times Magazine'', February 15, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120207210341/http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/09/europe-201109 |date=February 7, 2012 }}.</ref> This story painted a more optimistic picture of President Obama's re-election chances. A companion article on his ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama", explained how the model and the facts on the ground had changed between November and February.<ref>Nate Silver, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama", [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/the-fundamentals-now-favor-obama/ ''The New York Times'', February 15, 2012] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906152909/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/the-fundamentals-now-favor-obama/ |date=September 6, 2015 }}</ref>

Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts on June 7, 2012. According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes—21 more than the 270 required for a majority. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority.<ref>Nate Silver, "Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage", [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/#more-31097 ''The New York Times'', June 7, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150911020537/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/election-forecast-obama-begins-with-tenuous-advantage/#more-31097 |date=September 11, 2015 }}.</ref>

On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes.<ref>{{cite news|last=Silver|first=Nate|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/|title=FiveThirtyEight/NYT blog|publisher=Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com|access-date=December 5, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150425170119/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/|archive-date=April 25, 2015|url-status=live}}</ref> Both in summary tables and in an electoral map, Silver forecast the winner of each state. At the conclusion of that day, when Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver's model had correctly predicted the winner of every one of the 50 states and the [[Washington, D.C.|District of Columbia]].<ref>Daniel Terdiman, "[http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/ Obama's win a big vindication for Nate Silver, king of the quants] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121107201118/http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57546161-21/obamas-win-a-big-vindication-for-nate-silver-king-of-the-quants/ |date=November 7, 2012 }}", [[CNET]], November 6, 2012.</ref><ref>Although Silver put a "toss-up" tag on the presidential election in Florida, his interactive electoral map on the website painted the state light blue and stated that there was a 50.3% probability that Obama would win a plurality of the state's votes.</ref> Silver, along with at least three<ref>A fourth analyst, [[Sam Wang (neuroscientist)|Sam Wang]], missed only the State of Florida in his final presidential election forecast. See Sam Wang, "Presidential prediction 2012 – final", ''Princeton Election Connection,'' [http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/ November 6, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121116022709/https://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/presidential-prediction-2012-final/ |date=November 16, 2012 }}.</ref> academic-based analysts—[[Drew Linzer]],<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.ajc.com/news/emory-professor-called-electoral-landslide-june/1w3eZszL5QOZ0XGvr7ZB1M/|title=Emory professor called Electoral landslide in June|first=John|last=Perry|date=November 8, 2012|newspaper=Atlanta Journal-Constitution |archive-date=November 14, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121114023732/http://www.ajc.com/news/news/emory-professor-called-electoral-landslide-in-june/nS2Wj/ |url-status=live}}</ref> Simon Jackman,<ref>Simon Jackman, "Pollster Predictive Performance, 51 out of 51", [https://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html Article] at ''[[Huffington Post]]'', November 7, 2012 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130309231920/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/pollster-predictive-perfo_b_2087862.html |date=March 9, 2013 }}</ref> and Josh Putnam<ref>Josh Putnam, "The Electoral College Map (11/6/12): Election Day", [http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-electoral-college-map-11612.html FHQ (FrontloadingHQ), November 6, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121110072133/http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2012/11/the-electoral-college-map-11612.html |date=November 10, 2012 }}.</ref>—who also [[Poll aggregator|aggregated polls]] from multiple pollsters—thus was not only broadly correct about the election outcome, but also specifically predicted the outcomes for the nine ''[[swing state]]s''.<ref>Swing states in the 2012 election were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin</ref> In contrast, individual pollsters were less successful. For example, Rasmussen Reports "missed on six of its nine swing-state polls".<ref>Jonathan D. Salant and Laura Curtis, "Nate Silver-led Statistics Men Crush Pundits in Election", ''[http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/nate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election Bloomberg Business Week] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108063430/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-07/nate-silver-led-statistics-men-crush-pundits-in-election |date=November 8, 2012 }}'', November 7, 2012.</ref><ref>The reason for these misses might be found here: John Sides, "A Second Look at National Pollster Accuracy", ''The Monkey Cage'', November 7, 2012. [retrieved Nov 8, 2012]. However, notably [[Public Policy Polling]] by itself correctly predicted the [http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/final_2012_polls/#top winner of every state] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121109114035/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/final_2012_polls/#top |date=November 9, 2012 }}.</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Slate's Pundit Scorecard: Pundits live to make predictions. Who nailed it? Who missed big?|date=November 7, 2012|url=http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/pundit_scorecard_checking_pundits_predictions_against_the_actual_results.html| author-link = Mark Joseph Stern | last1 = Stern |first1=Mark Joseph|last2=Kirk|first2=Chris|last3=Morgan|first3=Andrew|access-date=September 20, 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130921060321/http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/pundit_scorecard_checking_pundits_predictions_against_the_actual_results.html|archive-date=September 21, 2013|url-status=live}}</ref>

==== 2016 U.S. elections ====
{{Main|FiveThirtyEight#2016 U.S. elections|l1=FiveThirtyEight: 2016 U.S. elections}}
In the week leading up to the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], the ''FiveThirtyEight'' team predicted that [[Hillary Clinton]] had a 64.5% chance of winning the election. Their final prediction on November 8, 2016, gave Clinton a 71% chance to win the [[2016 United States presidential election]],<ref>{{cite web|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=November 8, 2016|title=Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/|website=FiveThirtyEight|access-date=November 9, 2016|language=en-US|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161109044042/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/|archive-date=November 9, 2016|url-status=live}}</ref> while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability.<ref name="Silver5"/><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html|title=Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight proves its worth with another close election prediction|last=Allen|first=Kate|newspaper=[[Toronto Star]]|date=November 9, 2016|access-date=November 10, 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161109095542/https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html|archive-date=November 9, 2016|url-status=live}}</ref> [[Donald Trump]] won the election. ''FiveThirtyEight'' argued it projected a much higher chance (29%) of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other modelers,<ref name="Silver5">[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/ Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else]; ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]''; Nate Silver; November 11, 2016</ref> a projection which was criticized days before the election by [[Ryan Grim]] of ''[[The Huffington Post]]'' as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump.<ref>[https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f? Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump's Direction] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161114004104/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f |date=November 14, 2016 }}; ''[[Huffington Post]]''; Ryan Grim; November 5, 2016</ref>

==== 2020 U.S. elections ====
{{Main|FiveThirtyEight#2020 U.S. elections|l1=FiveThirtyEight: 2020 U.S. elections}}In their final prediction of the [[2020 United States presidential election]], ''FiveThirtyEight'' predicted that [[Joe Biden]] had an 89% chance of winning the election;<ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=August 12, 2020 |title=2020 Election Forecast |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ |access-date=June 21, 2022 |website=FiveThirtyEight |language=en |archive-date=August 14, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200814184314/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ |url-status=dead }}</ref> Biden won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. ''FiveThirtyEight'' only missed Florida, [[North Carolina]], and [[Maine's 2nd congressional district]] in their projections. [[Donald Trump]] prevailed in each of these contests, in which ''FiveThirtyEight'' forecast the better chances for Biden to win.

===Reception===
Silver has been criticized for inaccurate predictions. In January 2010, journalist and blogger Colby Cosh criticized Silver's performance during the [[United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010|Massachusetts special Senate election]], saying he was "still arguing as late as Thursday afternoon that [[Martha Coakley|[Martha] Coakley]] was the clear favourite; he changed his mind at midnight that evening and acknowledged that [[Scott Brown (politician)|Scott Brown]] had a puncher's chance". (Brown won the election.)<ref>{{cite news|last=Cosh|first=Colby|date=January 19, 2010|title=Mr. Overrated|url=http://www.macleans.ca/2010/01/19/mr-overrated/|access-date=November 6, 2012|newspaper=Macleans|archive-date=November 6, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121106015912/http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/01/19/mr-overrated/|url-status=live}}</ref>

Silver's quantitative focus on polling data, without insight from experience in political organizing or journalism, has been a recurring critique from experienced commentators. ''Huffington Post'' columnist Geoffrey Dunn described Silver as someone who "has never organized a precinct in his life, much less walked one, pontificating about the dynamics in the electoral processes as if he actually understood them".<ref>{{cite news|last=Dunn|first=Geoffrey|date=September 7, 2012|title=FiveThirtyHate?: Nate Silver Gets His Numbers Crossed in Charlotte|url=https://www.huffingtonpost.com/geoffrey-dunn/fivethirtyhate-nate-silve_b_1863634.html|access-date=November 3, 2012|newspaper=Huffington Post|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121012094933/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/geoffrey-dunn/fivethirtyhate-nate-silve_b_1863634.html|archive-date=October 12, 2012|url-status=live}}</ref>

Considerable criticism during the 2012 elections came from political conservatives, who argued that Silver's election projections were politically biased against [[Mitt Romney]], the Republican candidate for president.<ref>Gregory Ferenstein, "[https://techcrunch.com/2012/10/30/why-pundits-and-politicians-hate-nyt-election-forecaster-nate-silver/ Why Pundits and Politicians Hate NYT Election Forecaster Nate Silver] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171117080632/https://techcrunch.com/2012/10/30/why-pundits-and-politicians-hate-nyt-election-forecaster-nate-silver/ |date=November 17, 2017 }}", [[TechCrunch]], October 30, 2012.</ref> For example, Silver was accused of applying a double standard to his treatment of [[Rasmussen Reports]] polls, such as a 2010 analysis asserting a statistical bias in its methodology.<ref>Nate Silver, "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly", [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/ ''FiveThirtyEight'', November 4, 2010] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108143725/http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/ |date=November 8, 2012 }}.</ref> Josh Jordan wrote in ''[[National Review]]'' that Silver clearly favored Obama and adjusted the weight he gave polls "based on what [he] think[s] of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll".<ref>{{cite news|last=Jordan|first=Josh|date=October 22, 2012|title=Nate Silver's Flawed Model|url=http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan|access-date=November 3, 2012|newspaper=National Review|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121102181845/http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan|archive-date=November 2, 2012|url-status=live}}</ref>

On [[MSNBC]]'s ''[[Morning Joe]]'', host [[Joe Scarborough]] stated that Silver's prediction that day of a 73.6% chance of a win for Obama greatly exceeded the confidence of the Obama campaign itself, which Scarborough equated to that of the Romney campaign, both believing "they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning", and calling Silver an "ideologue" and a "joke". Silver responded with the offer of a $1,000 wager (for charity) over the outcome of the election. ''The New York Times'' public editor Margaret Sullivan, while defending Silver's analysis, characterized the wager as "a bad idea" as it gave the appearance of a partisan motive for Silver, and "inappropriate" for someone perceived as a ''Times'' journalist (although Silver was not a member of the newspaper's staff).<ref>{{cite news|last=Sullivan|first=Margaret|title=Under Attack, Nate Silver Picks the Wrong Defense|url=http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/under-attack-nate-silver-picks-the-wrong-defense/|access-date=November 3, 2012|newspaper=The New York Times|date=November 1, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121102233053/http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/under-attack-nate-silver-picks-the-wrong-defense/|archive-date=November 2, 2012|url-status=live}}. For a critical comment see Andrew Beaujon, "[http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/194020/new-york-times-wants-to-hold-nate-silver-to-newsroom-standards/ New York Times wants to hold Nate Silver to newsroom standards]", [[Poynter Institute|Poynter]], November 2, 2012 {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121115005935/http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/194020/new-york-times-wants-to-hold-nate-silver-to-newsroom-standards/ |date=November 15, 2012 }}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine |last=Cassidy |first=John |date=October 24, 2012 |title=Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections |url=https://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/10/david-brooks-v-nate-silver-prediction-polls.html |magazine=[[The New Yorker]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121114101729/http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/10/david-brooks-v-nate-silver-prediction-polls.html |archive-date=November 14, 2012}}</ref>

After a post-election appearance by Silver on Joe Scarborough's ''Morning Joe'', Scarborough published what he called a "(semi) apology", in which he concluded:

"I won't apologize to Mr. Silver for predicting an outcome that I had also been predicting for a year. But I do need to tell Nate I'm sorry for leaning in too hard and lumping him with pollsters whose methodology is as rigorous as [[the Simpsons]]' strip mall physician, [[Dr. Nick]]. For those sins (and a multitude of others that I'm sure I don't even know about), I am sorry.

"Politics is a messy sport. And just as ball players who drink beer and eat fried chicken in dugouts across America can screw up the smartest sabermetrician's forecast, Nate Silver's formula is sure to let his fervent admirers down from time to time. But judging from what I saw of him this morning, Nate is a grounded guy who admits as much in his book. I was too tough on him and there's a 84.398264% chance I will be less dismissive of his good work in the future."<ref>{{cite web|last=Scarborough |first=Joe |date=November 21, 2012 |title=My (Semi) Apology to Nate Silver |url=https://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/my-semi-apology-to-nate-silver-084115 |work=Politico |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121123191838/http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/84115.html |archive-date=November 23, 2012}}</ref>

Silver's nondisclosure of the details of his analytical model has resulted in some skepticism. [[The Washington Post|''Washington Post'']] journalist [[Ezra Klein]] wrote: "There are good criticisms to make of Silver's model, not the least of which is that, while Silver is almost tediously detailed about what's going on in the model, he won't give out the code, and without the code, we can't say with certainty how the model works."<ref>{{cite news|last=Klein|first=Ezra|title=The Nate Silver backlash|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/|access-date=November 3, 2012|newspaper=The Washington Post|date=October 30, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161130035831/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/|archive-date=November 30, 2016|url-status=live}}</ref> Colby Cosh wrote that the model "is proprietary and irreproducible. That last feature makes it unwise to use Silver's model as a straw stand-in for 'science', as if the model had been fully specified in a peer-reviewed journal".<ref>"Nate Silver and the Trials of a Forecaster", [http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/11/nate-silver-and-trials-of-forecaster.html ThreeHundredEight.com, November 6, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121109045008/http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/11/nate-silver-and-trials-of-forecaster.html |date=November 9, 2012 }}.</ref>

==Post-''FiveThirtyEight'' career: since 2023==
After departing ''FiveThirtyEight'' amid widespread layoffs at Disney/ABC News in May 2023,<ref name=":0"/> Silver began publishing on his personal blog, ''Silver Bulletin''.<ref name="SemaforSilver">{{cite web |last1=Smith |first1=Ben |last2=Raza |first2=Nayeema |title=Mixed Signals: When Biden lost it & Nate Silver's election forecast |url=https://www.semafor.com/article/06/28/2024/joe-biden-lost-the-debate-nate-silvers-election-model |website=[[Semafor (website)|Semafor]] |access-date=18 July 2024 |date=28 June 2024 |archive-date=July 18, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240718071732/https://www.semafor.com/article/06/28/2024/joe-biden-lost-the-debate-nate-silvers-election-model |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Kaylor |first1=Brian |title=Thrice as Nice |url=https://wordandway.org/2024/05/07/thrice-as-nice/ |website=Word&Way |access-date=18 July 2024 |date=7 May 2024 |archive-date=July 18, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240718071732/https://wordandway.org/2024/05/07/thrice-as-nice/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Silver retained the [[Intellectual property|IP]] of 538's election forecasting model as he left,<ref name="SB_538crit">{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |date=18 July 2024 |title=Why I don't buy 538's new election model |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election |website=Silver Bulletin |access-date=July 22, 2024 |archive-date=July 22, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240722055201/https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election |url-status=live }}</ref> and in June 2024, released his own election forecasting model at ''Silver Bulletin'', using methodology similar to his model at 538.<ref name="SemaforSilver"/><ref>{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |last2=McKown-Dawson |first2=Eli |title=Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model |website=Silver Bulletin |access-date=18 July 2024 |date=17 July 2024 |archive-date=July 18, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240718071732/https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model |url-status=live }}</ref>

In June 2024, Silver joined the prediction market startup [[Polymarket]] as an advisor.<ref name=":1">{{cite web |last1=Fischer |first1=Sara |title=Exclusive: Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news |url=https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket |website=[[Axios (website)|Axios]] |access-date=18 July 2024 |date=16 July 2024 |archive-date=July 18, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240718071731/https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket |url-status=live }}</ref> In August of the same year, Silver published his book ''On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything,''<ref>{{cite news |last=Fauria |first=Krysta |date=August 12, 2024 |title=Book Review: Nate Silver makes a compelling case for taking more risks in 'On the Edge' |url=https://apnews.com/article/nate-silver-on-edge-book-review-328a92f0ce5db446568dae76b4679892 |access-date=August 14, 2024 |work=[[Associated Press News]] |archive-date=August 13, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240813230659/https://apnews.com/article/nate-silver-on-edge-book-review-328a92f0ce5db446568dae76b4679892 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Freedman |first=Sam |date=August 10, 2024 |title=On the Edge by Nate Silver review — we're living in a gamblers' world |url=https://www.thetimes.com/culture/books/article/on-edge-art-risking-everything-nate-silver-review-kkndzhv7z |access-date=August 14, 2024 |work=[[The Times]] |archive-date=August 14, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240814052716/https://www.thetimes.com/culture/books/article/on-edge-art-risking-everything-nate-silver-review-kkndzhv7z |url-status=live }}</ref> exploring how calculated risks can yield benefits in diverse fields, from finance and poker to [[effective altruism]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Wu |first=Tim |date=August 12, 2024 |title=Nate Silver Gives Us Good Odds for a Bad Future |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/12/books/review/on-the-edge-nate-silver.html |work=The New York Times |archive-date=December 14, 2024 |access-date=November 5, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241214203211/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/12/books/review/on-the-edge-nate-silver.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

In November 2024, Silver said of his income from ''Silver Bulletin'', "It’s very good money, and definitely more than I was making working for a network." At that time his blog was ranked third on [[Substack|Substack's]] politics leaderboard with 282,000 subscribers.<ref>{{cite web |title=Substack Bets on Politics, With Millions at Stake |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/business/media/substack-politics-newsletters.html |website=New York Times |date=November 18, 2024 |access-date=12 February 2025 |last1=Testa |first1=Jessica |last2=Mullin |first2=Benjamin |archive-date=February 6, 2025 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20250206175243/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/business/media/substack-politics-newsletters.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

'''2024 U.S. elections'''

During the lead-up to the [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 elections]] between [[Donald Trump]] and [[Kamala Harris]], Silver criticized the new model used by 538 (developed by [[G. Elliott Morris]]). Silver described it as at best ignoring the polls and overly weighting Biden's [[Incumbent#Incumbency advantage|incumbency]], and at worst as being "buggy".<ref name="SB_538crit" /><ref>{{cite web |last1=Tani |first1=Max |date=19 July 2024 |title=The only place Biden is winning: 538's election model |url=https://www.semafor.com/article/07/18/2024/the-only-place-biden-is-winning-538s-election-model |website=Semafor |access-date=July 22, 2024 |archive-date=July 22, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240722214732/https://www.semafor.com/article/07/18/2024/the-only-place-biden-is-winning-538s-election-model |url-status=live }}</ref> After Biden [[Withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 United States presidential election|withdrew]] from the race, 538 overhauled their model to put more emphasis on polls.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Morris |first=G. Elliott |title=How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump |url=https://abcnews.go.com/538/538-adjusting-election-model-harris-versus-trump/story?id=112563822 |access-date=2024-08-29 |website=ABC News |language=en |archive-date=August 29, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240829084450/https://abcnews.go.com/538/538-adjusting-election-model-harris-versus-trump/story?id=112563822 |url-status=live }}</ref>

Silver's final forecast for the election gave Trump and Harris almost an exactly even chance of winning the Electoral College (50.015% for Harris, 49.985% for Trump).<ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model |access-date=July 18, 2024 |archive-date=July 18, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240718071732/https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model |url-status=live }}</ref> His model also forecast that a Trump victory in all seven swing states was the single most likely outcome (at over 20% likelihood),<ref>{{Cite news |last=Shoaib |first=Alia |title=Donald Trump's Chances of Winning a Landslide, According to Nate Silver |url=https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-nate-silver-1979693 |website=Newsweek |language=en |archive-date=November 9, 2024 |access-date=November 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241109163119/https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-nate-silver-1979693 |url-status=live }}</ref> and that a comfortable Electoral College victory of some form had better than even odds of occurring (with over 60% likelihood that one candidate would win at least six swing states).<ref>{{Cite news |last=Silver |first=Nate |title=Nate Silver: Here's What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don't Trust Anyone's Gut, Even Mine. |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html |website=New York Times |date=October 23, 2024 |language=en |archive-date=November 6, 2024 |access-date=November 6, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241106120902/https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html |url-status=live }}</ref> Trump won the Presidency and all seven swing states.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-11-10 |title=Why AP called Arizona for Trump |url=https://apnews.com/article/ap-race-call-explainer-arizona-president-5c3c3ea3d31ab8ebc4079ff2f7eab348 |access-date=2024-11-10 |website=AP News |language=en |archive-date=November 10, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241110044020/https://apnews.com/article/ap-race-call-explainer-arizona-president-5c3c3ea3d31ab8ebc4079ff2f7eab348 |url-status=live }}</ref>

Silver's final forecast also gave the advantage (i.e. greater than 50% odds of winning) to the eventual winner in 48 out of the 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia and all congressional districts awarding electoral votes.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Silver |first1=Nate |title=The model exactly predicted the most likely election map |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-model-exactly-predicted-the-most |website=Silver Bulletin |access-date=7 November 2024 |archive-date=November 8, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241108040303/https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-model-exactly-predicted-the-most |url-status=live }}</ref> Only Trump's victories in Michigan and Wisconsin did not occur in the majority of Silver's final simulations.

==''The Signal and the Noise''==
{{main|The Signal and the Noise}}
[[File:Nate Silver at SXSW 2013.jpg|thumb|right|Silver signing a copy of ''The Signal and the Noise'' at [[South by Southwest|SXSW]] 2013]]

''The Signal and The Noise'' was published in the United States on September 27, 2012. It reached the [[New York Times Best Sellers List]] as #12 for non-fiction hardback books after its first week in print. It dropped to #20 in the second week, before rising to #13 in the third, and remaining on the non-fiction hardback top 15 list for the following 13 weeks, with a highest weekly ranking of #4.<ref>{{cite news |last=Cowles |first=Gregory |title=New York Times Best Sellers List |url=https://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/hardcover-nonfiction/list.html |work=The New York Times |access-date=December 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131205214736/http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/hardcover-nonfiction/list.html |archive-date=December 5, 2013 |url-status=live}}</ref> Sales increased after the election on November 6, jumping 800% and becoming the second best seller on [[Amazon.com]].<ref>{{cite news|first=Jason |last=Notte |title=Nate Silver sees soaring Amazon book sales: The FiveThirtyEight blogger's confident and steadfast Obama forecast gets readers curious and critics furious |url=http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=3d424e42-2010-4c0d-abed-340c55f00240&ocid=ansmony11 |work=[[MSN Money]] |date=November 8, 2012 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130115174458/http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=3d424e42-2010-4c0d-abed-340c55f00240&ocid=ansmony11 |archive-date=January 15, 2013 }}</ref>

The book describes methods of mathematical model-building using [[probability]] and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis; Silver argues that many of these are violated by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles. Case studies in the book include baseball, elections, [[climate change]], the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These different topics illustrate different statistical principles. As a reviewer in ''The New York Times'' notes: "It's largely about evaluating predictions in a variety of fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. We learn about a handful of successes: when, for instance, meteorologists predict a hurricane's landfall 72 hours in advance.... But mostly we learn about failures. It turns out we're not even close to predicting the next catastrophic earthquake or the spread of the next killer bird flu, despite the enormous amounts of brainpower trained on these questions in the past few decades."<ref>{{cite news |first=Noam |last=Scheiber |title=Known Unknowns: ''The Signal and the Noise,'' by Nate Silver |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/books/review/the-signal-and-the-noise-by-nate-silver.html |date=November 2, 2012 |access-date=October 16, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161006220101/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/books/review/the-signal-and-the-noise-by-nate-silver.html |archive-date=October 6, 2016 |url-status=live }}</ref>

==Blogs and other publications==
[[File:Nate Silver book signing.jpg|thumb|Silver signing copies of his book ''On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything'' at [[Politics and Prose]] in 2024]]
;Blogs
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20080512090419/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog, now owned by ABC]
* [https://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/nate_silver/ Nate Silver's ''Baseball Prospectus'' article archive] (2003–2009)
* [http://burritobracket.blogspot.com/ Nate Silver's ''The Burrito Bracket''] (2007)
* [https://www.natesilver.net/ Nate Silver's ''Silver Bulletin'']

;Other publications
* Nate Silver, "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York: A Quantitative Index of the 50 Most Satisfying Places to Live", ''[[New York (magazine)|New York]],'' [https://nymag.com/realestate/neighborhoods/2010/65374/ April 11, 2010].
* Nate Silver, "The Influence Index", ''Time,'' [https://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1984685_1984713_1984669,00.html April 29, 2010].
* Nate Silver and Walter Hickey, "Best Picture Math", ''[[Vanity Fair (magazine)|Vanity Fair]],'' [https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2014/03/oscar-winner-predictions-nate-silver March 2014].
* [[Gareth Cook]] (Editor), Nate Silver (Introduction). ''The Best American Infographics 2014'', Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. {{isbn|978-0547974514}}.
* Review of two children's books, with an autobiographical comment: "Beautiful Minds: ''The Boy Who Loved Math'' and ''On a Beam of Light''", ''The New York Times'', [https://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/14/books/review/the-boy-who-loved-math-and-on-a-beam-of-light.html July 12, 2013].
* [[Andrew Gelman]], Nate Silver, Aaron S. Edlin, "What Is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference", ''[[Economic Inquiry]]'', 2012, 50(2): 321–26.
*In addition to chapters in several issues of the ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual, Silver contributed chapters to one-off monographs edited by [[Baseball Prospectus]], including:
**''Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning''. Steven Goldman, Ed. New York: Workman Publishing Co., 2005. {{isbn|0-7611-4018-2}}.
**''Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know about the Game Is Wrong''. Jonah Keri, Ed. New York: Basic Books, 2006. {{isbn|0-465-00596-9}} (hardback) and {{isbn|0-465-00547-0}} (paperback).
**''It Ain't over 'til It's over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book''. Steven Goldman, Ed. New York: Basic Books. Hardback 2007. {{isbn|0-465-00284-6}}; paperback 2008. {{isbn|0-465-00285-4}}.

==Media==
Silver's self-unmasking at the end of May 2008 brought him a lot of publicity focused on his combined skill as both baseball statistician-forecaster and political statistician-forecaster, including articles about him in ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'',<ref>[[Carl Bialik]], "Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers", [https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/baseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347/ ''The Wall Street Journal'', June 2, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080606201959/https://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/baseball-analyst-draws-fans-by-crunching-election-numbers-347/ |date=June 6, 2008 }}.</ref> ''[[Newsweek]]'',<ref>Andrew Romano, "Making His Pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw", [http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469 Article] in ''[[Newsweek]]'', June 16, 2008 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080619111251/http://www.newsweek.com/id/140469 |date=June 19, 2008 }},</ref> ''[[Science News]]'',<ref>Julie Rehmeyer, "Scooping the Political Pollsters", [http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/34036/title/Math_Trek__Scooping_the_political_pollsters Article] in ''[[Science News]]'', July 11, 2008 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080716002337/http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/34036/title/Math_Trek__Scooping_the_political_pollsters |date=July 16, 2008 }}.</ref><ref>Adam Sternbergh, "The Spreadsheet Psychic", [https://nymag.com/news/features/51170/ Article] in ''[[New York Magazine]]'', October 12, 2008 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081017181340/http://nymag.com/news/features/51170/ |date=October 17, 2008 }}.</ref> and his hometown ''[[Lansing State Journal]]''.<ref>Derek Wallbank, "E. L. native's predictions pitch politics a curveball: Applying baseball stats analysis creates buzz around 30-year-old", ''[[Lansing State Journal]]'', July 5, 2008. Also highlighting Silver's dual skills at baseball and political analysis were Alex Altman, "Q & A: Political Pollster Nate Silver", [https://web.archive.org/web/20081009042651/http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1847387,00.html Article] in ''[[Time (Magazine)|Time]]'', October 6, 2008, Joe Lemire, "The Sports-Politics Connection: FiveThirtyEight", [http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1146193/index.htm ''Sports Illustrated'', October 13, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081012092545/http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1146193/index.htm |date=October 12, 2008 }}, James Janega, "Odds are, he knows the score&nbsp;– Chicago statistician Nate Silver has turned from sports to politics, with striking results", [https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story ''Chicago Tribune'', October 27, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081028164502/http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story |date=October 28, 2008 }}, Ben Heller, "[http://www.sportsline.com/print/spin/story/11090208 The 2008 Sports Nerd of the Year: Nate Silver]{{dead link|date=February 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}", [[CBSSports.com]], November 7, 2008. and Childs Walker, "[http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/thetoydepartment/2009/04/projecting_politics_baseball_w_1.html Projecting politics & baseball with Nate Silver] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090411112140/http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/thetoydepartment/2009/04/projecting_politics_baseball_w_1.html |date=April 11, 2009 }}", ''[[Baltimore Sun]]'', April 8, 2009.</ref>

In early June he began to cross-post his daily "Today's Polls" updates on "The Plank" in ''[[The New Republic]]''.<ref>The first such posting was Nate Silver, "Today's Polls: The Bounce Hits the Badger State", ''The New Republic'', [http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx June 12, 2008] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080614232907/http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/12/today-s-polls-the-bounce-hits-the-badger-state.aspx |date=June 14, 2008 }}</ref> Also, ''[[Rasmussen Reports]]'' began to use the ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' poll averages for its own tracking of the 2008 state-by-state races.<ref>"[http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6361757 Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com]", ''[[Democratic Underground]]'', June 14, 2008. {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130116024716/http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6361757 |date=January 16, 2013 }}. Retrieved November 27, 2012.</ref>

In 2009 through 2012, Silver appeared as a political analyst on MSNBC,<ref>
For example, {{cite web |url-status=dead |url=http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/poll-watchers-waiting-for-iowans-to-settle/61r3p7d?cpkey=74c63c86-8176-4fd2-a1a1-95f020b6cc85 |archive-date=July 21, 2012 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20120721171031/http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/poll-watchers-waiting-for-iowans-to-settle/61r3p7d?cpkey=74c63c86-8176-4fd2-a1a1-95f020b6cc85 |work=The Rachel Maddow Show |date=December 28, 2011 |title=Poll watchers waiting for Iowans to settle |postscript=, |via=Bing Videos }} as well as {{cite web |url-status=dead |archive-date=April 19, 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120419085031/http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-rachel-maddow-show/45851722#45851722a |url=http://video.msnbc.msn.com/the-rachel-maddow-show/45851722 |date=January 2, 2012 |title=What are the consequences of Iowa? }}</ref> CNN<ref>For example, {{cite web |url=http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2011/09/25/rs-nate-silver-part-1.cnn |title=Nate Silver interview Part 1 |first1=Kurtz |last1=Howard |author-link1=Howard Kurtz |work=[[Reliable Sources]] |date=September 25, 2011 |publisher=CNN Politics |postscript=; |access-date=September 26, 2011 |archive-date=December 30, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101230111923/http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2011/09/25/rs-nate-silver-part-1.cnn |url-status=live }} {{cite web |url=http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2011/09/25/rs-nate-silver-part-2.cnn |title=Interview Part 2 |work=[[Reliable Sources]] |date=September 25, 2011 |publisher=CNN Politics |access-date=September 26, 2011 |archive-date=December 30, 2010 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101230111923/http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2011/09/25/rs-nate-silver-part-2.cnn |url-status=live }}</ref> and [[Bloomberg Television]],<ref>Video of Nate Silver on Bloomberg, March 8, 2010: {{cite web|author=((bizbuzz3)) |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfPCNI3ifDg|title=Nate Silver |publisher=Youtube |date=November 3, 2008|access-date=August 21, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130218023905/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfPCNI3ifDg|archive-date=February 18, 2013|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>"Nate Silver: Why Gun Rights Rhetoric Is Winning", [https://www.bloomberg.com/video/nate-silver-why-guns-rights-rhetoric-is-winning-cm3jd2o9RjaIAvS_B4qEyw.html December 17, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131105023204/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/nate-silver-why-guns-rights-rhetoric-is-winning-cm3jd2o9RjaIAvS_B4qEyw.html |date=November 5, 2013 }}.</ref> [[Public Broadcasting Service|PBS]],<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/video/nate-silver-on-why-the-polls-dont-always-add-up/4289/|title=Need to Know: Nate Silver on Why Polls Don't Always Add Up|publisher=Pbs.org|date=October 15, 2010|access-date=August 21, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130308014556/http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/video/nate-silver-on-why-the-polls-dont-always-add-up/4289/|archive-date=March 8, 2013|url-status=dead}}</ref> NPR,<ref>[https://www.npr.org/2011/08/02/138935743/whats-the-electoral-impact-of-the-debt-ceiling-debate What's the Impact of the Debt Debate, August 2, 2011] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180827115527/https://www.npr.org/2011/08/02/138935743/whats-the-electoral-impact-of-the-debt-ceiling-debate |date=August 27, 2018 }}.</ref> ''[[Democracy Now!]]'',<ref>[http://www.democracynow.org/2010/5/18/on_mini_super_tuesday_3_senate Democracy Now 5-18-2010] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100521173034/http://www.democracynow.org/2010/5/18/on_mini_super_tuesday_3_senate |date=May 21, 2010 }}.</ref> ''The Charlie Rose Show'',<ref>
e.g., [http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12100 January 23, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120125192804/http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12100 |date=January 25, 2012 }} 
</ref> [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]],<ref>[https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/york-times-nate-silver-top-line-11746871 ABC "Topline", 9–28, 2010] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101025234919/http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/york-times-nate-silver-top-line-11746871 |date=October 25, 2010 }}.</ref> and [[Current TV]].<ref>
For example, on Keith Olbermann's [http://current.com/shows/countdown/videos/nate-silver-discusses-romneys-woes-in-michigan-and-nationwide "Countdown" on February 14, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120215150820/http://current.com/shows/countdown/videos/nate-silver-discusses-romneys-woes-in-michigan-and-nationwide |date=February 15, 2012 }}
</ref>

Silver also appeared on ''[[The Colbert Report]]'' (October 7, 2008, and November 5, 2012),<ref>[http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/187343/october-07-2008/nate-silver Nate Silver on "Colbert Report" 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081218221050/http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/187343/october-07-2008/nate-silver |date=December 18, 2008 }} and [http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/420765/november-05-2012/nate-silver Nate Silver on "Colbert Report" 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121106131448/http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/420765/november-05-2012/nate-silver |date=November 6, 2012 }}.</ref> ''[[The Daily Show]]'' (October 17, 2012, and November 7, 2012),<ref>[http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/wed-october-17-2012-nate-silver Nate Silver on "The Daily Show"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121018204825/http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/wed-october-17-2012-nate-silver |date=October 18, 2012 }}.</ref> and ''[[Real Time with Bill Maher]]'' (October 26, 2012).<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.hbo.com/real-time-with-bill-maher/episodes/index.html#/real-time-with-bill-maher/episodes/0/264-episode/index.html |title=Real Time with Bill Maher |publisher=Hbo.com |access-date=December 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131214053343/http://www.hbo.com/real-time-with-bill-maher/episodes/index.html#/real-time-with-bill-maher/episodes/0/264-episode/index.html |archive-date=December 14, 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref>

That Silver accurately predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential race, in the face of numerous public attacks on his forecasts by critics, inspired many articles in the press, ranging from ''[[Gizmodo]]'',<ref>Nick Stango, "[https://gizmodo.com/5958549/top-25-nate-silver-facts Top 25 Nate Silver Facts] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170801235117/http://gizmodo.com/5958549/top-25-nate-silver-facts |date=August 1, 2017 }}", [[Gizmodo]], November 7, 2012.</ref> to online and mainstream newspapers,<ref>Chris Taylor, "[http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/ The Triumph of the Nerds] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108050813/http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/ |date=November 8, 2012 }}", [[Mashable]], November 7, 2012; Jocelyn Noveck, "He called it, and now Silver's a pop-culture star", [http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ELECTION_THE_OTHER_WINNER Associated Press, November 9, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200804124718/http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ELECTION_THE_OTHER_WINNER |date=August 4, 2020 }}; Martin Robbins, "Can Nate Silver's example save political journalism?" ''[[The Guardian]]'', November 13, 2012; Ken Bensinger, "[https://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fi-election-math-20121108,0,2926239.story Number crunchers were right about Obama despite what pundits said] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121111064637/http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fi-election-math-20121108,0,2926239.story |date=November 11, 2012 }}", [[Los Angeles Times]], November 8, 2012; James Rainey, "[https://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-nate-silver-polls-rasmussen-20121107,0,3329768.story Parsing polls: Nate Silver picks on target, Rasmussen not so much] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121109120837/http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-nate-silver-polls-rasmussen-20121107,0,3329768.story |date=November 9, 2012 }}", ''[[Los Angeles Times]],'' November 8, 2012; Ron Seely, "[http://host.madison.com/news/science/seely-on-science-nate-silver-gains-fame-by-harnessing-power/article_cf087458-29f8-11e2-a2d4-001a4bcf887a.html?comment_form=true#comments Seely on Science: Nate Silver gains fame by harnessing power of math] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180623061821/https://host.madison.com/news/science/seely-on-science-nate-silver-gains-fame-by-harnessing-power/article_cf087458-29f8-11e2-a2d4-001a4bcf887a.html?comment_form=true#comments |date=June 23, 2018 }}", [[Wisconsin State Journal]], November 9, 2012; Greg Sargent, "[https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/what-nate-silver-really-accomplished/2012/11/21/6f9f10c2-3410-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_blog.html What Nate Silver Really Accomplished] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802083350/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/what-nate-silver-really-accomplished/2012/11/21/6f9f10c2-3410-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_blog.html |date=August 2, 2017 }}", ''The Washington Post'', November 21, 2012; Aluf Benn, "After 2012, make way for the digital press", ''[[Haaretz]],'' December 29, 2012.</ref> news and commentary magazines,<ref>Conor Friedersdorf, "How Conservative Media Lost to the MSM and Failed the Rank and File", ''[[The Atlantic]]'', [https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/how-conservative-media-lost-to-the-msm-and-failed-the-rank-and-file/264855/ November 7, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170120192322/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/how-conservative-media-lost-to-the-msm-and-failed-the-rank-and-file/264855/ |date=January 20, 2017 }}; Frank Rich, "Fantasyland: Denial has poisoned the GOP and threatens the rest of the country too", ''[[New York (magazine)|New York]],'' [https://nymag.com/news/frank-rich/gop-denial-2012-11/ November 9, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121112032739/http://nymag.com/news/frank-rich/gop-denial-2012-11/ |date=November 12, 2012 }}.</ref> business media,<ref>Tarun Wadhwa, "Nate Silver and the Rise of Political Data Science",  ''[[Forbes]],'' [https://www.forbes.com/sites/singularity/2012/11/07/nate-silver-and-the-rise-of-political-data-science/ November 7, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170802092627/https://www.forbes.com/sites/singularity/2012/11/07/nate-silver-and-the-rise-of-political-data-science/ |date=August 2, 2017 }}; Dorie Clark, "How Nate Silver Won the 2012 Presidential Election",  ''[[Harvard Business Review]],'' [http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/11/how_nate_silver_won_the_2012_p.html November 7, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121111083605/http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/11/how_nate_silver_won_the_2012_p.html |date=November 11, 2012 }}; Steve LeVine, "The smart guesswork that applies even in Nate Silver's world", ''Quartz,'' [http://qz.com/25855/the-smart-guesswork-that-applies-even-in-nate-silvers-world/ November 11, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121113205926/http://qz.com/25855/the-smart-guesswork-that-applies-even-in-nate-silvers-world/ |date=November 13, 2012 }}; Joe Weisenthal, "Here's The Real Reason Nate Silver's Perfect Election Call Was Such An Awesome Breakthrough", [[Business Insider]], [http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-and-the-end-of-ex-post-facto-excuses-2012-11 November 10, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121110233614/http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-and-the-end-of-ex-post-facto-excuses-2012-11 |date=November 10, 2012 }}; Irving Wladawsky-Berger, "Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Prove Predictive Analytics Getting Real", ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'', [https://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2012/12/16/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-prove-predictive-analytics-getting-real/ December 16, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180623033333/https://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2012/12/16/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-prove-predictive-analytics-getting-real/ |date=June 23, 2018 }}.</ref> trade journals,<ref>Eric Lundquist, "Nate Silver's Big Data Lessons For The Enterprise", ''[[Information Week]]'', [http://www.informationweek.com/global-cio/interviews/nate-silvers-big-data-lessons-for-the-en/240062638 November 8, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121110192706/http://www.informationweek.com/global-cio/interviews/nate-silvers-big-data-lessons-for-the-en/240062638 |date=November 10, 2012 }}; Daniel Terdiman, "Among the top election quants, Nate Silver reigns supreme", ''[[CNET]],'' [http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57546778-38/among-the-top-election-quants-nate-silver-reigns-supreme/ November 8, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108150326/http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57546778-38/among-the-top-election-quants-nate-silver-reigns-supreme/ |date=November 8, 2012 }}.</ref> media about media,<ref>Kelly McBride, "What Nate Silver's success says about the 4th and 5th estates", ''[[Poynter Institute|Poynter]],'' [http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/making-sense-of-news/194843/what-nate-silvers-success-says-about-the-4th-and-5th-estates/ November 8, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121110203932/http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/making-sense-of-news/194843/what-nate-silvers-success-says-about-the-4th-and-5th-estates/ |date=November 10, 2012 }}; Jonathan Stray, "Data, uncertainty, and specialization: What journalism can learn from FiveThirtyEight's election coverage", ''Nieman Journalism Lab,'' [http://www.niemanlab.org/2012/10/data-uncertainty-and-specialization-what-journalism-can-learn-from-fivethirtyeights-election-coverage/ October 31, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121107042925/http://www.niemanlab.org/2012/10/data-uncertainty-and-specialization-what-journalism-can-learn-from-fivethirtyeights-election-coverage/ |date=November 7, 2012 }}.</ref> and ''[[Scientific American]]'',<ref>Jennifer Ouellette, "Why Math is Like the Honey Badger: Nate Silver", ''Scientific American,'' [http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cocktail-party-physics/2012/11/07/why-math-is-like-the-honey-badger-nate-silver-ascendant November 7, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121108123907/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cocktail-party-physics/2012/11/07/why-math-is-like-the-honey-badger-nate-silver-ascendant/ |date=November 8, 2012 }}; and Bora Zivkovic, "Nate Silver and the Ascendance of Expertise", ''Scientific American,'' [http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/a-blog-around-the-clock/2012/11/14/nate-silver-and-the-ascendance-of-expertise/ November 14, 2012] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121117094143/http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/a-blog-around-the-clock/2012/11/14/nate-silver-and-the-ascendance-of-expertise/ |date=November 17, 2012 }}.</ref> as well as a feature interview on ''[[Today (U.S. TV program)|The Today Show]]'',<ref>
[https://web.archive.org/web/20121111134653/http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/49757709#49757709 Today Show], November 9, 2012.
</ref> a return appearance on ''[[The Daily Show]]'',<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-november-7-2012/nate-silver |title=Silver on Daily Show, Nov. 7, 2012 |publisher=Thedailyshow.com |access-date=December 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131231190840/http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-november-7-2012/nate-silver |archive-date=December 31, 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref> and an appearance on ''[[Morning Joe]]''.<ref>[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/ns/msnbc-morning_joe/#49899665 ''Morning Joe''] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130127214344/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/ns/msnbc-morning_joe/#49899665 |date=January 27, 2013 }} on November 20, 2012.</ref>

Silver's first appearance on [[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] as Editor-in-Chief of the new ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' was on [[George Stephanopoulos]]'s ''[[This Week (ABC TV series)|This Week]]'' on November 3, 2013.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/espns-nate-silver-week-2014-election-picture-20770078 |title=ABC News "This Week" |publisher=Abcnews.go.com |access-date=December 5, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131209192705/http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/video/espns-nate-silver-week-2014-election-picture-20770078 |archive-date=December 9, 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref>

Silver is referenced in the [[Syfy channel]] show ''[[The Magicians (U.S. TV series)|The Magicians]]'' as an earth wizard who uses polling spells.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.denofgeek.com/us/go/263294|title=The Magicians Season 2 Episode 10 Review: The Girl Who Told Time|website=Den of Geek}}{{Dead link|date=September 2023 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref>

In 2015, Silver appeared on the podcast ''[[Employee of the Month (podcast)|Employee of the Month]]'', where he criticized [[Vox Media]] for "recycling Wikipedia entries" in their content.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2015/11/09/nate-silver-accuses-vox-of-recycling-wikipedia-entries/|title=Nate Silver accuses Vox of recycling Wikipedia entries|last=Wemple|first=Erik|date=November 9, 2015|newspaper=The Washington Post|access-date=November 14, 2019|archive-date=March 12, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210312151327/https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2015/11/09/nate-silver-accuses-vox-of-recycling-wikipedia-entries/|url-status=live}}</ref>

==Selected recognition and awards==
* April 30, 2009: Silver was named one of [[Time 100|"The World's 100 Most Influential People"]] by ''[[Time (magazine)|TIME]]'' magazine.<ref name="specials1" />
* May 12, 2013: Silver received an honorary [[Doctor of Science]] degree (''Scientiæ Doctor honoris causa'' – D.Sc. h.c.) and gave the commencement address at [[Ripon College (Wisconsin)|Ripon College]].<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6GAKeFh8SE Ripon 2013 video] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160504010456/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6GAKeFh8SE |date=May 4, 2016 }} of Ripon College honorary degree award and commencement speech.</ref>
* May 24, 2013: Silver received an honorary [[Doctor of Letters|Doctor of Literature]] degree (Doctor of Literature ''honoris causa'') and presented a commencement address at [[The New School]].<ref>[http://vimeo.com/67336820 New School 2013 commencement video] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140203104703/http://vimeo.com/67336820 |date=February 3, 2014 }}.</ref>
* October 2013: Silver's ''The Signal and the Noise'' won the 2013 [[Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science]], which recognizes "outstanding contributions by scientists to the literature of science".<ref name="pbk.org">{{cite web |date=October 8, 2013 |title=Phi Beta Kappa book award in science |url=http://www.pbk.org/home/newsview.aspx?id=998 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131024041741/http://www.pbk.org/home/newsview.aspx?id=998 |archive-date=October 24, 2013 |access-date=December 5, 2013 |publisher=Pbk.org}}</ref>
* December 2013: The [[Katholieke Universiteit Leuven|University of Leuven (KU Leuven)]] (Belgium) and the Leuven Statistics Research Centre awarded Silver an honorary doctoral degree "for his prominent role in the development, application, and dissemination of proper prediction methods in sports and in political sciences".<ref>
"Honorary Doctorate for Nate Silver", [http://lstat.kuleuven.be/LStat25/Nate%20Silver.htm LStat: Leuven Statistics Research Centre] {{Webarchive|url=https://archive.today/20131204045244/http://lstat.kuleuven.be/LStat25/Nate%20Silver.htm |date=December 4, 2013 }} 
</ref><ref>
Luc Vander Elst, "Honorary doctorate for Nate Silver, the man who made statistics cool", KU Leuven, [http://www.kuleuven.be/english/news/honorary-doctorate-for-nate-silver-the-man-who-made-statistics-cool December 18, 2013] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131224103042/http://www.kuleuven.be/english/news/honorary-doctorate-for-nate-silver-the-man-who-made-statistics-cool |date=December 24, 2013 }} 
</ref>
* May 25, 2014: Silver received a Doctorate of Humane Letters, ''honoris causa'', from [[Amherst College]].<ref>Honorary doctorate from Amherst, [https://www.amherst.edu/aboutamherst/news/specialevents/commencement/awards/2014-honorees/nate-silver 2014] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140527220605/https://www.amherst.edu/aboutamherst/news/specialevents/commencement/awards/2014-honorees/nate-silver |date=May 27, 2014 }}.</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://photos.masslive.com/republican/2014/05/193rd_commencement_at_amherst_college_18.html|title=193rd Commencement at Amherst College|work=masslive.com|access-date=May 26, 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140527215510/http://photos.masslive.com/republican/2014/05/193rd_commencement_at_amherst_college_18.html|archive-date=May 27, 2014|url-status=dead}}</ref>
*May 2017: Georgetown University awarded Silver a degree of Doctor of Humane Letters ''honoris causa''.<ref>[https://www.georgetown.edu/news/commencement-speakers-2017 "Georgetown Announces 2017 Commencement Speakers"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170517070642/https://www.georgetown.edu/news/commencement-speakers-2017 |date=May 17, 2017 }}.</ref>
*May 2018: Kenyon College awarded Silver a degree, Doctor of Humane Letters.<ref>[http://www.kenyon.edu/middle-path/for-the-media/media-relations/press-release-archives/kenyon-set-to-celebrate-190th-commencement-fivethirtyeight-editor-nate-silver-to-give-address/ Kenyon College honorary degree] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180520054900/http://www.kenyon.edu/middle-path/for-the-media/media-relations/press-release-archives/kenyon-set-to-celebrate-190th-commencement-fivethirtyeight-editor-nate-silver-to-give-address/ |date=May 20, 2018 }}.</ref>

==Personal life==
Silver is a great-nephew of geologists [[Caswell Silver]] and [[Leon Silver]]. He is a great-grandson of Harmon Lewis, the President of Alcoa Steamship Company,<ref>{{Cite news|first=Nate |last=Bloom |author-link=Nate Bloom   |title= Interfaith Celebrities: Nate Silver, Another Bond, and Happy Endings  |newspaper=[[InterfaithFamily]]|date= November 13, 2012 |url=http://www.interfaithfamily.com/arts_and_entertainment/popular_culture/Interfaith_Celebrities_Nate_Silver_Another_Bond_and_Happy_Endings.shtml  | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121121022651/http://www.interfaithfamily.com/arts_and_entertainment/popular_culture/Interfaith_Celebrities_Nate_Silver_Another_Bond_and_Happy_Endings.shtml| archive-date=November 21, 2012|quote=His mother is the granddaughter of the late Harmon Lewis, once head of the Alcoa Steamship Company. Silver's middle name is also the first name of a maternal great-aunt and the middle name of his mother's sister}}</ref> as well as a great-great-nephew of the embryologist [[Warren Harmon Lewis]] and his wife, biologist [[Margaret Reed Lewis]].{{citation needed|date=April 2017}}

Silver is [[gay]].<ref>Carole Cadwalladr, "Nate Silver: it's the numbers, stupid", [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/17/nate-silver-interview-election-data-statistics/ Article] in ''[[The Guardian]],'' November 17, 2012 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161121173702/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/17/nate-silver-interview-election-data-statistics |date=November 21, 2016 }}.</ref> "I've always felt like something of an outsider. I've always had friends but I've always come from an outside point of view. I think that's important. If you grow up gay or in a household that's agnostic when most people are religious, then from the get-go, you are saying there are things the majority of society believes that I don't believe", he told an interviewer in 2012.<ref name="guardian1">Carole Cadwalladr, "Nate Silver: it's the numbers, stupid", [https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/17/nate-silver-interview-election-data-statistics/ Article] in ''[[The Observer]],'' November 17, 2012 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161121173702/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/17/nate-silver-interview-election-data-statistics |date=November 21, 2016 }}.</ref> When asked "what made you feel more of a misfit, being gay or being a geek", he replied, "Probably the numbers stuff since I had that from when I was six."<ref name="guardian1"/> When asked in 2008 if he had noticed people looking at him as a "gay icon", he responded, "I've started to notice it a little bit although so far it seems like I'm more a subject of geek affection than gay affection".<ref>Japhy Grant, "Nate Silver on African-Americans, Prop 8. and Being A Hero to Gays & Geeks Everywhere", [http://www.queerty.com/exclusive-nate-silver-on-african-americans-prop-8-and-being-a-hero-to-gays-geeks-everywhere-20081121/ ''Queerty'', November 21, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121115151157/http://www.queerty.com/exclusive-nate-silver-on-african-americans-prop-8-and-being-a-hero-to-gays-geeks-everywhere-20081121/ |date=November 15, 2012 }}. [retrieved November 6, 2012]</ref>

Silver discussed his sexuality in the context of growing up in East Lansing in an article about the [[U.S. Supreme Court|Supreme Court]] ruling ''[[Obergefell v. Hodges]]'' in favor of recognizing [[same-sex marriage]] on the date of its announcement. He analyzed the speed of the change of public sentiment, pointing out that the change over only several decades has been palpable to the current generations.<ref name="2015-06-26_Silver">[https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/change-doesnt-usually-come-this-fast/ Change Doesn't Usually Come This Fast], Nate Silver, ''[[FiveThirtyEight]]'', June 26, 2015, accessed June 29, 2015</ref>

Silver has long been interested in [[fantasy baseball]], especially Scoresheet Baseball.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.scoresheet.com/BB_index.php|title=Scoresheet Fantasy Baseball Overview &#124; The best fantasy baseball sim game|website=www.scoresheet.com|access-date=July 31, 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170726220203/http://www.scoresheet.com/BB_index.php|archive-date=July 26, 2017|url-status=live}}</ref> While in college he served as an expert on Scoresheet Baseball for [[Ron Shandler|BaseballHQ]].<ref>Zak Stambor, "Number Cruncher", [http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0878/features/nate_silver.shtml ''University of Chicago Magazine'', July–August, 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080721011512/http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0878/features/nate_silver.shtml |date=July 21, 2008 }}.</ref> When he took up political writing, Silver abandoned his blog, ''The Burrito Bracket'',<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.burritobracket.blogspot.com/|title=BurritoBracket.com|publisher=Burritobracket.blogspot.com|date=February 23, 2004|access-date=August 21, 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130114195034/http://burritobracket.blogspot.com/|archive-date=January 14, 2013|url-status=live}}</ref> in which he ran a one-and-done competition among the taquerias in his [[Wicker Park, Chicago|Wicker Park]] neighborhood in Chicago.<ref>On the role of ''The Burrito Bracket'' in Silver's engagement in blogging see Dan Cohen, "The Ivory Tower and the Open Web: Introduction: Burritos, Browsers and Books", [http://www.dancohen.org/2011/07/26/the-ivory-tower-and-the-open-web-introduction-burritos-browsers-and-books-draft/ Dan Cohen's ''Digital Humanities'' blog, July 26, 2011] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110810001104/http://www.dancohen.org/2011/07/26/the-ivory-tower-and-the-open-web-introduction-burritos-browsers-and-books-draft/ |date=August 10, 2011 }}. [retrieved August 6, 2011]</ref>

Silver plays [[poker]] semi-professionally.<ref>See Hageman, cited previously; {{cite news|title=Players Place Bets on Poker as Career|url=https://www.chicagotribune.com/2004/10/03/players-place-bets-on-poker-as-career/|publisher=Chicago Tribune|last=Kaiser|first=Rob|date=October 3, 2004|access-date=July 2, 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130115164158/http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2004-10-03/business/0410030372_1_online-poker-poker-sites-interest-in-online-gaming|archive-date=January 15, 2013|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=poker>{{cite web|title=This Post Brought to You by Poker|url=https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-post-brought-to-you-by-poker/|publisher=[[FiveThirtyEight]]|last=Silver|first=Nate|date=July 2, 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121126021614/http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/this-post-brought-to-you-by-poker.html|archive-date=November 26, 2012|url-status=live}}</ref> He has $887,338 in total tournament earnings, including an 87th place finish in the 2023 [[World Series of Poker]] Main Event.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nate Silver's profile on The Hendon Mob |url=https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=283302 |access-date=December 30, 2023 |website=The Hendon Mob Poker Database |language=en |archive-date=July 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230713015313/https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?a=r&n=283302 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=July 12, 2023 |title=Nate Silver Places 93rd in the 2023 WSOP Main Event. |url=https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1679289459857293312?s=20 |access-date=July 13, 2023 |website=Twitter |language=en |archive-date=July 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230713015317/https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1679289459857293312?s=20 |url-status=live }}</ref>

===Political views===
In a 2012 interview with [[Charlie Rose]], Silver said, "I'd say I'm somewhere in between being a [[libertarian]] and a [[liberalism|liberal]]. So if I were to vote, it would be kind of a [[Gary Johnson]] versus [[Mitt Romney]] decision, I suppose."<ref>{{cite episode |title=Mark Halperin of Time magazine and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com on the Presidential election |url=http://www.charlierose.com/watch/60140283 |series=[[Charlie Rose (TV series)|Charlie Rose]] |first=Charlie (host) |last=Rose |network=[[PBS]] |date=October 29, 2012 |access-date=October 6, 2013 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130926073817/http://charlierose.com/watch/60140283 |archive-date=September 26, 2013 }}</ref> In a 2023 newsletter, Silver said that he misspoke during that interview and meant to say that he would have chosen between Johnson and [[Barack Obama]]. He added that he has voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election he has participated in, though he voted for [[John Kasich]] in the [[2016 New York Republican presidential primary]] as he believed "the difference between a Kasich-led GOP and a Trump-led GOP would make a big difference to the future of the country".<ref name = Disagree>{{Cite web |last=Silver |first=Nate |date=September 12, 2023 |title=Not everyone who disagrees with you is a closet right-winger |url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/not-everyone-who-disagrees-with-you |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230912224615/https://www.natesilver.net/p/not-everyone-who-disagrees-with-you |archive-date=September 12, 2023 |access-date=September 13, 2023 |website=Silver Bulletin}}</ref>

Silver has also criticized "the progressive [[political class]]", believing that it has become "more ''[[left-wing politics|left]]'' and less ''liberal''".<ref name = Disagree/> In 2024, he said that he voted for [[Kathy Hochul]] in the [[2022 New York gubernatorial election]] and [[Kamala Harris]] in the [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 presidential election]], but has also criticized some of the Democratic Party's actions and political positions.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-15-democrats-have-a-fool-me|title=SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem|access-date=December 17, 2024|date=November 26, 2024|website=Silver Bulletin|first1=Nate|last1=Silver|archive-date=December 13, 2024|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241213003441/https://www.natesilver.net/p/sbsq-15-democrats-have-a-fool-me|url-status=live}}</ref>

==See also==
{{Portal|Baseball|Politics|Mathematics|Journalism|Biography|LGBTQ}}
* [[Computational statistics]]
* [[Editorial board]]
* [[LGBT culture in New York City]]
* [[List of LGBT people from New York City]]
* [[New Yorkers in journalism]]
* [[Political analysis]]
* [[Sports betting]]
* [[Allan Lichtman]]
{{clear}}

==References==
{{reflist}}

== Further reading ==
* {{Cite web |last1=Calderone |first1=Michael |title=Behind Nate Silver's war with The New York Times |work=[[Politico]] |date=August 15, 2019 |url=https://politi.co/2OZp0dw |language=en |access-date=August 18, 2019  }}

==External links==
{{Commons category}}
{{Wikiquote}}
* {{C-SPAN}}
* {{IMDb name}}
*{{Scopus}}

{{Sports rating systems}}
{{Authority control}}

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