View source for Land use, land-use change, and forestry

{{Short description|Greenhouse gas inventory sector}}
{{about|the greenhouse gas inventory category|more general information|Land use|and|Land-use change|and|Forestry}}
[[File:8000 BCE+ Loss of forest and grassland to grazing and crops.svg |thumb |The period since 1950 has brought "the most rapid transformation of the human relationship with the natural world in the history of humankind".<ref name=IGBP_Steffen_2004>{{cite web |last1=Steffen |first1=Will |last2=Sanderson |first2=Angelina |last3=Tyson |first3=Peter |last4=Jäger |first4=Jill |last5=Matson |first5=Pamela |last6=Moore III |first6=Berrien |last7=Oldfield |first7=Frank |last8=Richardson |first8=Katherine |last9=Schellnhuber |first9=H. John |last10=Turner II |first10=B. L. |last11=Wasson |first11=Robert J. |display-authors=4 |title=Global Change and the Climate System / A Planet Under Pressure |url=http://www.igbp.net/download/18.56b5e28e137d8d8c09380001694/1376383141875/SpringerIGBPSynthesisSteffenetal2004_web.pdf |publisher=International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170319052247/http://www.igbp.net/download/18.56b5e28e137d8d8c09380001694/1376383141875/SpringerIGBPSynthesisSteffenetal2004_web.pdf |archive-date=19 March 2017 |pages=131, 133 |date=2004 |quote=Fig. 3.67(j): loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia.  |url-status=live}}</ref> Almost one-third of the world's forests, and almost two-thirds of its grassland, have been lost to human agriculture—which now occupies almost half the world's habitable land.<ref name=LandUseChange_8000BCE>{{cite web |title=Deforestation and Forest Loss / Humanity destroyed one third of the world's forests by expanding agricultural land |url=https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation |publisher=Our World in Data (OWID) |archive-url=https://archive.today/20221107180838/https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation |archive-date=7 November 2022 |quote=Data: Historical data on forests from Williams (2003) - Deforesting the Earth. Historical data on agriculture from The History Database of Global Environment (HYDE). Modern data from the FAO |url-status=live }}</ref>]]

'''Land use, land-use change, and forestry''' ('''LULUCF'''), also referred to as '''Forestry and other land use''' ('''FOLU''') or '''Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use''' ('''AFOLU)''',<ref>{{Cite web |title=Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) — IPCC |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/agriculture-forestry-and-other-land-use-afolu/ |access-date=2023-10-26}}</ref><ref name=":4">M. Pathak, R. Slade, P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Pichs-Madruga, D. Ürge-Vorsatz,2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_TechnicalSummary.pdf Technical Summary]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/ Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. doi: 10.1017/9781009157926.002.</ref>{{rp|65}} is defined as a "[[greenhouse gas inventory]] sector that covers [[greenhouse gas emissions|emissions]] and [[greenhouse gas removal|removals of greenhouse gases]] resulting from direct human-induced [[land use]] such as settlements and commercial uses, [[land-use change]], and [[forestry]] activities."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/glossary-of-climate-change-acronyms-and-terms#l|title=Glossary of climate change acronyms and terms|website=[[UNFCCC]]|access-date=2020-04-06}}</ref>

LULUCF has impacts on the global [[carbon cycle]] and as such, these activities can add or remove [[carbon dioxide]] (or, more generally, [[carbon]]) from the atmosphere, influencing [[climate]].<ref>{{Cite book|title=Land use and the carbon cycle : advances in integrated science, management, and policy|date=2013|publisher=Cambridge University Press|editor=Brown, Daniel G.|isbn=9781107648357|location=Cambridge|oclc=823505307}}</ref> LULUCF has been the subject of two major reports by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC), but is difficult to measure.<ref>{{cite book |year=2022 |chapter=2022: Emissions Trends and Drivers |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter02.pdf |title=IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change| doi=10.1017/9781009157926.004}}</ref>{{Rp|page=12}} Additionally, [[land use]] is of critical importance for [[biodiversity]].<ref name=":0">Towards Sustainable Land Use: Aligning Biodiversity, Climate and Food Policies. (2020). France: OECD Publishing.</ref>

== Development ==
The [[United Nations]] [[Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC) Article 4(1)(a) requires all Parties to "develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of the Parties" as well as "national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources" "removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the [[Montreal Protocol]]."

Under the UNFCCC reporting guidelines, human-induced greenhouse emissions must be reported in six sectors: energy (including stationary energy and transport); industrial processes; solvent and other product use; agriculture; waste; and ''land use, [[land use change]] and forestry'' (LULUCF).<ref>Department of the Environment and Heritage (DEH) 2006, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2004: Accounting for the 108% Target, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.</ref>

The rules governing accounting and reporting of [[greenhouse gas emissions]] from LULUCF under the [[Kyoto Protocol]] are contained in several decisions of the Conference of Parties under the UNFCCC.

LULUCF has been the subject of two major reports by the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC).<ref>{{cite report| publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]| title=Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry| year=2003| url=https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/good-practice-guidance-for-land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry/| isbn=4887880030}}</ref>

The Kyoto Protocol article 3.3 thus requires mandatory LULUCF accounting for afforestation (no forest for last 50 years), reforestation (no forest on 31 December 1989) and deforestation, as well as (in the first commitment period) under article 3.4 voluntary accounting for cropland management, grazing land management, revegetation and forest management (if not already accounted under article 3.3).<ref>{{cite journal |vauthors=Hohne N, Wartmann S, Herold A, Freibauer A |year=2007 |title=The rules for land use, land use change and forestry under the Kyoto Protocol—lessons learned for the future climate negotiations |journal=Environmental Science and Policy |volume=10 |issue=4 |pages=353–69 |doi=10.1016/j.envsci.2007.02.001|bibcode=2007ESPol..10..353H }} at p. 354</ref>

This decision sets out the rules that govern how [[Kyoto Protocol|Kyoto Parties]] with emission reduction commitments (so-called Annex 1 Parties) account for changes in carbon stocks in land use, land-use change and forestry.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web |title=Reporting on LULUCF activities under the Kyoto Protocol |url=https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf/reporting-on-lulucf-activities-under-the-kyoto-protocol |access-date=2020-04-22 |website=unfccc.int}}</ref> It is mandatory for Annex 1 Parties to account for changes in carbons stocks resulting from [[deforestation]], [[reforestation]] and [[afforestation]] (B Article 3.3)<ref>{{cite web |title=Microsoft Word - kpcmp8a3.doc |url=http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/cmp1/eng/08a03.pdf |access-date=2010-04-29}}</ref> and voluntary to account for emissions from forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation (B. Article 3.4).<ref name=":1" />
The flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol, including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), also include provisions for LULUCF projects, further enhancing the integration of land use considerations into climate change mitigation strategies.

==Climate impacts==
[[File:GHG per capita 2000.svg|thumb|350px|Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country including land-use change, in the year 2000 according to World Resources Institute]]

Land-use change can be a factor in CO<sub>2</sub> (carbon dioxide) atmospheric concentration, and is thus a contributor to global [[climate change]].<ref name="raul">{{cite journal |last1=Ochoa-Hueso |first1=R |last2=Delgado-Baquerizo |first2=M |last3=King |first3=PTA |last4=Benham |first4=M |last5=Arca |first5=V |last6=Power |first6=SA |title=Ecosystem type and resource quality are more important than global change drivers in regulating early stages of litter decomposition |journal=Soil Biology and Biochemistry |date=February 2019 |volume=129 |pages=144–152 |doi=10.1016/j.soilbio.2018.11.009 |bibcode=2019SBiBi.129..144O |s2cid=92606851 |hdl=10261/336676 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]] estimates that land-use change (e.g. conversion of [[forest]] into agricultural land) contributes a net 1.6 ± 0.8 [[Tonne#Derived units|Gt]] carbon per year to the atmosphere. For comparison, the major source of CO<sub>2</sub>, namely emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, amount to 6.3 ± 0.6 Gt carbon per year.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/land-use-land-use-change-and-forestry/|title=IPCC Special Reports: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry|website=ipcc.ch|access-date=2020-10-19}}</ref>

In 2021 the Global Carbon Project estimated annual land-use change emissions were 4.1 ± 2.6 Gt {{CO2}} ({{CO2}} not carbon: 1 Gt carbon = 3.67 Gt {{CO2}} <ref>{{cite web |title=Comparing {{CO2}} emissions to {{CO2}} levels |url=https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45 |website=Sceptical science |access-date=26 January 2020}}</ref>) for 2011–2020.<ref name=":14">{{Cite journal|last1=Friedlingstein|first1=Pierre|last2=Jones|first2=Matthew W.|last3=O'Sullivan|first3=Michael|last4=Andrew|first4=Robbie M.|last5=Bakker|first5=Dorothee C. E.|last6=Hauck|first6=Judith|last7=Le Quéré|first7=Corinne|last8=Peters|first8=Glen P.|last9=Peters|first9=Wouter|last10=Pongratz|first10=Julia|last11=Sitch|first11=Stephen|date=2021-11-04|title=Global Carbon Budget 2021|url=https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2021-386/|journal=Earth System Science Data Discussions|volume=14 |issue=4 |language=English|pages=1917–2005|doi=10.5194/essd-2021-386|issn=1866-3508|doi-access=free}}</ref>

The land-use sector is critical to achieving the aim of the [[Paris Agreement]] to limit global warming to {{convert|2|C-change|F-change|1}}.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/forests/lulucf_en|title=Land use and forestry regulation for 2021-2030|date=2016-11-23|website=Climate Action - European Commission|access-date=2020-04-06}}</ref>

Land-use change alters not just atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration but also land surface biophysics such as [[albedo]] and [[evapotranspiration]], both of which affect climate.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Kaiguang |first1=Zhao |last2=Jackson |first2=Robert B. |title=Biophysical forcings of land-use changes from potential forestry activities in North America. |journal=Ecological Monographs |date=2014 |volume=84 |issue=2 |page=329-353 |doi=10.1890/12-1705.1 |bibcode=2014EcoM...84..329Z |url=https://jacksonlab.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj20871/files/media/file/em2014.pdf}}</ref> The impact of land-use change on the climate is also more and more recognized by the climate modeling community. On regional or local scales, the impact of LUC can be assessed by [[Regional climate model]]s (RCMs). This is however difficult, particularly for variables, which are inherently noisy, such as precipitation. For this reason, it is suggested to conduct RCM ensemble simulations.<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1002/joc.4836 | volume=37 | issue=4 | title=How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change? | year=2016 | journal=International Journal of Climatology | pages=2080–2100 | last1 = Laux | first1 = Patrick| url=https://opus.bibliothek.uni-augsburg.de/opus4/files/38379/0094.pdf | doi-access=free }}</ref>

==Extents and mapping==
[[File:Spatial extent of global land use- & land-cover change.webp|thumb|400px|Share of the total land surface without and with consideration of multiple changes between six major land use/cover categories (urban area, cropland, pasture/rangeland, forest, unmanaged grass/shrubland, non-/sparsely vegetated land) in 1960–2019.<ref name="10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2"/>]]<!--File:Global forest, cropland and pasture, rangeland change.webp-->
A 2021 study estimated, with higher resolution data, that land-use change has affected 17% of land in 1960–2019, or when considering multiple change events 32%, "around four times" previous estimates. They also investigate its drivers, identifying [[international trade|global trade]] affecting agriculture as a main driver.<ref>{{cite news |title=Nearly a fifth of Earth's surface transformed since 1960 |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-05-earth-surface.html |access-date=13 June 2021 |work=phys.org |language=en}}</ref><ref name="10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2">{{cite journal |last1=Winkler |first1=Karina |last2=Fuchs |first2=Richard |last3=Rounsevell |first3=Mark |last4=Herold |first4=Martin |title=Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated |journal=Nature Communications |date=2021-05-11 |volume=12 |issue=1 |pages=2501 |doi=10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2 |pmid=33976120 |pmc=8113269 |bibcode=2021NatCo..12.2501W |language=en |issn=2041-1723}} [[File:CC-BY icon.svg|50px]] Available under [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC BY 4.0].</ref>

==Forest modeling==
[[Earth System Modeling Framework|Earth system modeling]] has traditionally been used to analyze forests for climate projections. However, in recent years, there has been a shift away from this modeling towards more mitigation and [[climate change adaptation|adaptation]] projections.<ref>{{Cite book|last=National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling.|title=A national strategy for advancing climate modeling|date=2012|publisher=National Academies Press|others=National Research Council (U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate., National Research Council (U.S.). Division on Earth and Life Studies.|isbn=978-0-309-25978-1|location=Washington, D.C.|oclc=824780474}}</ref> These projections can give researchers a better understanding of future forest management practices to employ. Furthermore, this new modeling approach also allows for land management practices to be analyzed in the model. Land management practices include forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing, and crop harvest. Land management practices produce biophysical and biogeochemical effects on the forest, and following the model can increase the likelihood of success. Where there is a lack of available data for these practices, further monitoring and data collecting are needed to improve the models' accuracy.<ref>{{Cite web |title=5. Improving Data Collection across the Health Care System |url=https://www.ahrq.gov/research/findings/final-reports/iomracereport/reldata5.html |access-date=2023-10-19 |website=www.ahrq.gov |language=en-us}}</ref>

== See also ==
* {{annotated link|Agricultural expansion}}
* {{annotated link|Deforestation and climate change}}
* {{annotated link|Land change science}}
* {{annotated link|Land change modeling}}
* {{annotated link|Land use}}
* {{annotated link|Satoyama}}
* {{annotated link|Special Report on Climate Change and Land}}

==References==
{{Reflist|2}}

==External links==
* [https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)] at [[UNFCCC]]
* [http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/land_use/index.htm IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry]

{{Global warming|state=collapsed}}
{{Forestry}}
{{Deforestation and desertification}}

[[Category:Biodiversity]]
[[Category:Climate change and the environment]]
[[Category:Environmental issues with forests]]
[[Category:Land use]]