View source for Breakup of Yugoslavia

{{Short description|1991–92 Balkan political conflict}}
{{About|the events entailing the 1991 and 1992 dissolution of the Yugoslav state|key dates of the dissolution|Timeline of the breakup of Yugoslavia|the partition of Yugoslavia by Axis occupiers in World War II|Invasion of Yugoslavia}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=July 2024}}
{{Infobox historical event
| Event_Name = Breakup of Yugoslavia
| Image_Name = Breakup of Yugoslavia.gif
| Imagesize = 300
| Image_Caption = {{Collapsible list
 |title={{center|1={{nobold|Animated series of maps showing the breakup of the [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia|SFR Yugoslavia]] and subsequent developments, from 1989 through 2008. The colors represent the different areas of control.}}}}
 |<!--Chronological order:-->{{legend0|#b62c2c|[[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] (1945–92)}}
 |{{legend0|#a1c893|[[Slovenia]] (25 June 1991–)}}
 |{{legend0|#ef6363|[[Croatia]] (25 June 1991–)}}
 |{{legend0|#9e9fcd|[[Republic of Serbian Krajina]] (1991–95; became a part of [[Croatia]] after [[Operation Storm]])}}
 |{{legend0|#e1995b|[[Republic of North Macedonia]] (1991–; named "[[Republic of Macedonia]]" until 2019)}}
 |{{legend0|#d3d3d3|[[Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina]] (1992–95; became a part of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]])}}
 |{{legend0|#d89d9d|[[Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia]] (1991–94; became a part of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]])}}
 |{{legend0|#696cae|[[Republika Srpska (1992–1995)|Republika Srpska]] (1992–95; became part of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]])}}
 |{{legend0|#474a80|[[Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] (1992–2003; reconstructed into the "[[State Union of Serbia and Montenegro]]" in 2003–06)}}
 |{{legend0|#797878|[[Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia]] (1991–94; became a part of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]])}}
 |{{legend0|#a4a4a4|[[Bosnia and Herzegovina]] (1995–)}}
 |{{legend0|#dcedff|[[United Nations Transitional Administration for Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Sirmium|UN Transitional Administration]] in [[Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Syrmia (1995–1998)|Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Syrmia]] (1996–1998; became a part of [[Croatia]])}}
 |{{legend0|#f0eabb|[[Montenegro]] (3 June 2006–)}}
 |{{legend0|#63809f|[[Serbia]] (5 June 2006–)}}
 |{{legend0|#9eb3cb|[[Kosovo]] (17 February 2008–; only [[International recognition of Kosovo|partially recognised]], claimed by [[Serbia]])}}
}}
| partof = the [[Cold War]], the [[Revolutions of 1989|Revolutions of <br /> 1989]] and the [[Yugoslav Wars]]
| Thumb_Time = 
| AKA = 
| Location = {{flag|SFR Yugoslavia}}
* {{flagicon|SR Croatia}}→{{flagicon|Croatia}} [[Croatia]]
* {{flagicon|SR Slovenia}}→{{flagicon|Slovenia}} [[Slovenia]]
* {{flagicon|SR Bosnia and Herzegovina}}→{{flagicon image|Flag of Bosnia and Herzegovina (1992–1998).svg|link = Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina}} [[Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina|Bosnia and Herzegovina]]
* {{flagicon|SR Macedonia}}→{{flagicon image|Flag of Macedonia (1992–1995).svg|link = North Macedonia}} [[North Macedonia|Republic of Macedonia]]
* {{flagicon|FR Yugoslavia}} [[Serbia and Montenegro|FR Yugoslavia]]
** {{flagicon|SR Serbia}}→{{flagicon image|Flag of Serbia (1992–2004).svg|link = Republic of Serbia (1992–2006)}} [[Republic of Serbia (1992–2006)|Serbia]]
** {{flagicon|SR Montenegro}}→{{flagicon image|Flag of Montenegro (1993–2004).svg|link = Republic of Montenegro (1992–2006)}} [[Republic of Montenegro (1992–2006)|Montenegro]]
{{Collapsible list
  |title=Unrecognized breakaway states{{nobold|:}}
  |{{flagicon image|State Flag of Serbian Krajina (1991).svg|link = Republic of Serbian Krajina}} [[Republic of Serbian Krajina|Serbian Krajina]]
  |{{flagicon image|Flag of the Republika Srpska.svg|link = Republika Srpska (1992–1995)}} [[Republika Srpska (1992–1995)|Republika Srpska]]
  |{{flagicon image|Dubrovnik Republic (1991-1992).svg|link = Dubrovnik Republic (1991)}} [[Dubrovnik Republic (1991)|Dubrovnik Republic]]
  |{{flagicon image|Flag of the Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia.svg|link = Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia}} [[Croatian Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia|Herzeg-Bosnia]]
  |{{flagicon image|Flag of the Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia (1993–1995).svg|link = Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia}} [[Autonomous Province of Western Bosnia|Western Bosnia]]
  |{{flagicon image|Flag of Kosova (1991–1999).svg|link = Republic of Kosova}} [[Republic of Kosova]]
}}
| Date = 25 June 1991&nbsp;– 27 April 1992<br />({{Age in years, months, weeks and days|month1=06|day1=25|year=1991|month2=04|day2=27|year2=1992}})
| Result = * [[Dissolution (politics)|Dissolution]] of Yugoslavia and formation of independent [[Yugoslavia#New states|successor states]]
* Continuation of the [[Yugoslav Wars]] until 2001.
| URL = 
}}
{{Campaignbox Yugoslav Wars}}
After a period of political and economic crisis in the 1980s, the constituent republics of the [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] split apart in the early 1990s. Unresolved issues from the breakup caused a series of inter-ethnic [[Yugoslav Wars]] from 1991 to 2001 which primarily [[Bosnian War|affected Bosnia and Herzegovina]], neighbouring parts of [[Croatian War of Independence|Croatia]] and, some years later, [[Kosovo War|Kosovo]].

Following the [[Allies of World War II|Allied]] victory in [[World War II]], Yugoslavia was set up as a federation of six republics, with borders drawn along ethnic and historical lines: [[Socialist Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina|Bosnia and Herzegovina]], [[Socialist Republic of Croatia|Croatia]], [[Socialist Republic of Macedonia|Macedonia]], [[Socialist Republic of Montenegro|Montenegro]], [[Socialist Republic of Serbia|Serbia]], and [[Socialist Republic of Slovenia|Slovenia]]. In addition, two autonomous provinces were established within Serbia: [[SAP Vojvodina|Vojvodina]] and [[SAP Kosovo|Kosovo]]. Each of the republics had its own branch of the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]] party and a ruling elite, and any tensions were solved on the federal level. The Yugoslav model of state organisation, as well as a "middle way" between [[planned economy|planned]] and [[Economic liberalism|liberal economy]], had been a relative success, and the country experienced a period of strong economic growth and relative political stability up to the 1980s, under [[Josip Broz Tito]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Caesar |first=Faisal |date=23 June 2020 |title=The forgotten Yugoslavian side of Italia 90 |url=https://www.cricketsoccer.com/2020/06/23/the-forgotten-yugoslavian-side-of-italia-90/#:~:text=The%20Yugoslav%20model%20of%20state%20organization%2C%20as%20well,under%20the%20rule%20of%20president-for-life%20Josip%20Broz%20Tito. |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200902021857/https://www.cricketsoccer.com/2020/06/23/the-forgotten-yugoslavian-side-of-italia-90/#%3A%7E%3Atext%3DThe%20Yugoslav%20model%20of%20state%20organization%2C%20as%20well%2Cunder%20the%20rule%20of%20president%2Dfor%2Dlife%20Josip%20Broz%20Tito. |url-status=usurped |archive-date=2 September 2020 |website=Cricketsoccer}}</ref> After his death in 1980, the weakened system of federal government was left unable to cope with rising economic and political challenges.

In the 1980s, [[Kosovo Albanians]] started to demand that their autonomous province be granted the status of a full constituent republic, starting with the [[1981 protests in Kosovo|1981 protests]]. Ethnic tensions between Albanians and [[Kosovo Serbs]] remained high over the whole decade, which resulted in the growth of Serb opposition to the high autonomy of provinces and ineffective system of consensus at the federal level across Yugoslavia, which were seen as an obstacle for Serb interests. In 1987, [[Slobodan Milošević]] came to power in Serbia, and through a series of populist moves acquired ''de facto'' control over Kosovo, Vojvodina, and Montenegro, garnering a high level of support among Serbs for his [[Centralisation|centralist]] policies. Milošević was met with opposition by party leaders of the western constituent republics of Slovenia and Croatia, who also advocated greater democratisation of the country in line with the [[Revolutions of 1989]] in [[Eastern Europe]]. The League of Communists of Yugoslavia dissolved in January 1990 along federal lines. Republican communist organisations became the separate socialist parties.

During 1990, the socialists (former communists) lost power to [[Separatism|ethnic separatist]] parties in the [[Elections in Yugoslavia|first multi-party elections]] held across the country, except in [[1990 Montenegrin general election|Montenegro]] and in [[1990 Serbian general election|Serbia]], where Milošević and his allies won. Nationalist rhetoric on all sides became increasingly heated. Between June 1991 and April 1992, four constituent republics declared independence while Montenegro and Serbia remained federated. [[Germany]] took the initiative and recognized the independence of Croatia and Slovenia, but the status of ethnic Serbs outside Serbia and Montenegro, and that of ethnic Croats outside Croatia, remained unsolved. After a string of inter-ethnic incidents, the [[Yugoslav Wars]] ensued, with the most severe conflicts being [[Croatian War of Independence|in Croatia]], [[Bosnian War|Bosnia and Herzegovina]] and [[Kosovo war|Kosovo]]. The wars left economic and political damage in the region that is still felt decades later.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/years-later-bosnia-still-struggling-with-the-aftermath-of-war|title=Decades later, Bosnia still struggling with the aftermath of war|date=19 November 2017|website=PBS NewsHour}}</ref> On April 27, 1992, the Federal Council of the Assembly of the SFRY, based on the decision of the [[National Assembly (Serbia)|Assembly]] of the Republic of Serbia and the [[Parliament of Montenegro|Assembly]] of Montenegro, adopted the [[Constitution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]], which formally ended the breakup.

== Background ==
Yugoslavia occupied a significant portion of the [[Balkans|Balkan Peninsula]], including a strip of land on the east coast of the [[Adriatic Sea]], stretching southward from the [[Gulf of Trieste|Bay of Trieste]] in Central Europe to the mouth of [[Buna (Adriatic Sea)|Bojana]] as well as [[Lake Prespa]] inland, and eastward as far as the [[Iron Gates]] on the [[Danube]] and [[Midžor]] in the [[Balkan Mountains]], thus including a large part of [[Southeast Europe]], a region with a history of ethnic conflict.

The important elements that fostered the discord involved contemporary and historical factors, including the formation of the [[Kingdom of Yugoslavia]], the first breakup and subsequent inter-ethnic and political wars and genocide during [[World War&nbsp;II]], ideas of [[Greater Albania]], [[Greater Croatia]] and [[Greater Serbia]] and conflicting views about [[Pan-Slavism]], and the unilateral recognition by a newly reunited Germany of the breakaway republics.

Before [[World War II in Yugoslavia|World War&nbsp;II]], major tensions arose from the first, [[Kingdom of Yugoslavia|monarchist Yugoslavia]]'s multi-ethnic make-up and relative political and demographic domination of the Serbs. Fundamental to the tensions were the different concepts of the new state. The [[Croats]] and [[Slovenes]] envisaged a [[federation|federal]] model where they would enjoy greater autonomy than they had as a separate [[crown land]] under [[Austria-Hungary]]. Under Austria-Hungary, both Slovenes and Croats enjoyed autonomy with free hands only in education, law, religion, and 45% of taxes.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.h-net.org/~habsweb/sourcetexts/nagodba1.htm|title=The Hungaro-Croatian Compromise of 1868 (The Nagodba) |work=h-net.org|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110604141317/http://www.h-net.org/~habsweb/sourcetexts/nagodba1.htm|archive-date = 4 June 2011}}</ref> The Serbs tended to view the territories as a just reward for their support of the allies in [[World War&nbsp;I]] and the new state as an extension of the [[Kingdom of Serbia]].<ref>{{Cite book |last=Kishore |first=Dr Raghwendra |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=hIdCEAAAQBAJ&dq=The+Serbs+tended+to+view+the+territories+as+a+just+reward+for+their+support+of+the+allies+in+World+War+I+and+the+new+state+as+an+extension+of+the+Kingdom+of+Serbia.&pg=PA240 |title=International Relations |date=2021-09-11 |publisher=K.K. Publications |language=en}}</ref>

Tensions between the Croats and Serbs often erupted into open conflict, with the Serb-dominated security structure exercising oppression during elections and the assassination in the [[Parliament of Yugoslavia|National Assembly]] of Croat political leaders, including [[Stjepan Radić]], who opposed the Serbian monarch's [[Absolute monarchy|absolutism]].<ref>{{cite magazine|url =http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,719894,00.html |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080112220024/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,719894,00.html |title = Elections|magazine =[[Time (magazine)|Time]]|date =23 February 1925|archive-date = 12 January 2008}}</ref> The assassination and human rights abuses were subject of concern for the [[Human Rights League (France)|Human Rights League]] and precipitated voices of protest from intellectuals, including [[Albert Einstein]].<ref>[http://www.croatianhistory.net/etf/einste.html Appeal to the international league of human rights], Albert Einstein/Heinrich Mann.</ref> It was in this environment of oppression that the radical insurgent group (later fascist dictatorship) the [[Ustaše]] were formed.

During World War II, the country's tensions were exploited by the occupying [[Axis forces]] which established a Croat [[puppet state]] spanning much of present-day [[Croatia]] and [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]]. The Axis powers installed the [[Ustaše]] as the leaders of the [[Independent State of Croatia]].

The Ustaše resolved that the Serbian minority were a [[fifth column]] of Serbian expansionism and pursued a policy of persecution against the Serbs. The policy dictated that one-third of the Serbian minority were to be killed, one-third expelled, and one-third converted to [[Catholic Church in Croatia|Catholicism]] and assimilated as Croats. Conversely, Serbian Royalist [[Chetniks]] pursued their own campaign of persecution against non-Serbs in parts of [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]], [[Croatia]] and [[Sandžak]] per the [[Stevan Moljević|Moljević plan]] ("On Our State and Its Borders") and the [[Draža Mihailović#Bosnia|orders]] issues by [[Draža Mihailović]] which included "[t]he cleansing of all nation understandings and fighting".

Both Croats and Muslims were recruited as soldiers by the ''[[Schutzstaffel|SS]]'' (primarily in the [[13th Waffen Mountain Division of the SS Handschar (1st Croatian)|13th ''Waffen'' Mountain Division]]). At the same time, former royalist, General [[Milan Nedić]], was installed by the Axis as head of the [[Government of National Salvation|puppet government]] in the German-occupied area of Serbia, and local Serbs were recruited into the [[Gestapo]] and the [[Serbian Volunteer Corps (World War II)|Serbian Volunteer Corps]], which was linked to the German [[Waffen-SS]]. Both [[quisling]]s were confronted and eventually defeated by the communist-led, anti-fascist [[Partisans (Yugoslavia)|Partisan]] movement composed of members of all ethnic groups in the area, leading to the formation of the [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]].

The official Yugoslav post-war estimate of [[World War II casualties|victims]] in Yugoslavia during [[World War&nbsp;II]] was 1,704,000. Subsequent data gathering in the 1980s by historians [[Vladimir Žerjavić]] and [[Bogoljub Kočović]] showed that the actual number of dead was about 1&nbsp;million. Of that number, 330,000 to 390,000 ethnic Serbs perished from all causes in Croatia and Bosnia.<ref>Staff. [http://www.ushmm.org/wlc/article.php?lang=en&ModuleId=10005449 Jasenovac concentration camp] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090916030858/http://www.ushmm.org/wlc/article.php?lang=en&ModuleId=10005449 |date=16 September 2009}}, [[Jasenovac, Sisak-Moslavina County|Jasenovac]], Croatia, Yugoslavia. On the website of the [[United States Holocaust Memorial Museum]].</ref> These same historians also established the deaths of 192,000 to 207,000 ethnic Croats and 86,000 to 103,000 Muslims from all affiliations and causes throughout Yugoslavia.{{sfn|Cohen|1996|page=109}}{{full citation needed|date=January 2022}}{{sfn|Žerjavić|1993}}

Prior to its collapse, Yugoslavia was a regional industrial power and an economic success. From 1960 to 1980, annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 6.1 percent, medical care was free, literacy was 91 percent, and life expectancy was 72 years.<ref>World Bank, World Development Report 1991, Statistical Annex, Tables 1 and 2, 1991.</ref> Prior to 1991, Yugoslavia's armed forces were amongst the best-equipped in Europe.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Small arms survey 2015 : weapons and the world.|isbn=9781107323636|location=[Cambridge, England]|oclc=913568550|last1=Survey|first1=Small Arms|date=5 July 2015}}</ref>

Yugoslavia was a unique state, straddling both the East and West. Moreover, its president, [[Josip Broz Tito]], was one of the fundamental founders of the "[[third world]]" or "[[group of 77]]" which acted as an alternative to the superpowers. More importantly, Yugoslavia acted as a [[buffer state]] between the West and the [[Soviet Union]] and also prevented the Soviets from getting a toehold on the [[Mediterranean Sea]].

The central government's control began to be loosened due to increasing nationalist grievances and the Communist's Party's wish to support "national [[self determination]]". This resulted in Kosovo being turned into an autonomous region of Serbia, legislated by the [[1974 Yugoslav Constitution|1974 constitution]]. This constitution broke down powers between the capital and the autonomous regions in [[Vojvodina]] (an area of Yugoslavia with a large number of ethnic minorities) and Kosovo (with a large ethnic-[[Albanians|Albanian]] population).

Despite the federal structure of the new [[Yugoslavia]], there was still tension between the federalists, primarily Croats and Slovenes who argued for greater autonomy, and [[Political unitarism|unitarists]], primarily Serbs. The struggle would occur in cycles of protests for greater individual and national rights (such as the [[Croatian Spring]]) and subsequent repression. The 1974 constitution was an attempt to short-circuit this pattern by entrenching the federal model and formalising national rights.

The loosened control basically turned Yugoslavia into a ''de facto'' [[confederation|confederacy]], which also placed pressure on the legitimacy of the regime within the federation. Since the late 1970s a widening gap of economic resources between the developed and underdeveloped regions of Yugoslavia severely deteriorated the federation's unity.<ref name="Dejan Jović 2009. p. 15">{{harvnb|Jović|2009|p=15}}</ref> The most developed republics, Croatia and Slovenia, rejected attempts to limit their autonomy as provided in the 1974 Constitution.<ref name="Dejan Jović 2009. p. 15" /> Public opinion in Slovenia in 1987 saw better economic opportunity in independence from Yugoslavia than within it.<ref name="Dejan Jović 2009. p. 15" /> There were also places that saw no economic benefit from being in Yugoslavia; for example, the autonomous province of Kosovo was poorly developed, and per capita GDP fell from 47 percent of the Yugoslav average in the immediate post-war period to 27 percent by the 1980s.<ref>{{harvnb|Jović|2009|pp=15–16}}</ref> It highlighted the vast differences in the quality of life in the different republics.

Economic growth was curbed due to Western trade barriers combined with the [[1973 oil crisis]]. Yugoslavia subsequently fell into heavy IMF debt due to the large number of [[International Monetary Fund]] (IMF) loans taken out by the regime. As a condition of receiving loans, the IMF demanded the "[[market liberalism|market liberalisation]]" of Yugoslavia. By 1981, Yugoslavia had incurred $19.9&nbsp;billion in foreign debt. Another concern was the level of unemployment, at 1 million by 1980. This problem was compounded by the general "unproductiveness of the South", which not only added to Yugoslavia's economic woes, but also irritated Slovenia and Croatia further.<ref name="Asch-Reichmann" /><ref name="Massey-Taylor" />

== Causes ==

=== Structural problems ===

The [[SFR Yugoslavia]] was a conglomeration of eight federated entities, roughly divided along ethnic lines, including six republics:
* {{Flag|Socialist Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina|name=Bosnia and Herzegovina}}
* {{Flag|SR Croatia|name=Croatia}}
* {{Flag|SR Macedonia|name=Macedonia}}
* {{Flag|SR Montenegro|name=Montenegro}}
* {{Flag|SR Serbia|name=Serbia}} 
* {{Flag|SR Slovenia|name=Slovenia}}
Two autonomous provinces within Serbia:
* {{Flag|SAP Vojvodina|name=Vojvodina}}
* {{Flag|SAP Kosovo|name=Kosovo}}

With the [[1974 Yugoslav Constitution|1974 Constitution]], the office of [[President of Yugoslavia]] was replaced with the [[Yugoslav Presidency]], an eight-member [[Collective leadership|collective head-of-state]] composed of representatives from six republics and, controversially, two autonomous provinces of the [[Socialist Republic of Serbia]], [[SAP Kosovo]] and [[SAP Vojvodina]].

Since the SFR Yugoslav federation was formed in 1945, the constituent Socialist Republic of Serbia (SR Serbia) included the two autonomous provinces of SAP Kosovo and SAP Vojvodina. With the 1974 constitution, the influence of the central government of SR Serbia over the provinces was greatly reduced, which gave them long-sought autonomy. The government of SR Serbia was restricted in making and carrying out decisions that would apply to the provinces. The provinces had a vote in the Yugoslav Presidency, which was not always cast in favor of SR Serbia. In Serbia, there was great resentment towards these developments, which the nationalist elements of the public saw as the "division of Serbia".
The 1974 constitution not only exacerbated Serbian fears of a "weak Serbia, for a strong Yugoslavia" but also hit at the heart of Serbian national sentiment. A majority of Serbs saw – 
and still see – Kosovo as the "cradle of the nation", and would not accept the possibility of losing it to the majority Albanian population.

In an effort to ensure his legacy, Tito's 1974 constitution established a system of year-long presidencies, on a rotation basis out of the eight leaders of the republics and autonomous provinces. Tito's death would show that such short terms were highly ineffective. Essentially it left a power vacuum which was left open for most of the 1980s. In their book ''[[Free to Choose]]'' (1980), [[Milton Friedman]] and his wife [[Rose Friedman]] foretold: "Once the aged Marshal Tito dies, Yugoslavia will experience political instability that may produce a reaction toward greater [[authoritarianism]] or, far less likely, a collapse of existing collectivist arrangements". (Tito died soon after the book was published.)

=== Death of Tito and the weakening of Communism ===
{{Main|Death and state funeral of Josip Broz Tito}}
On 4 May 1980, Tito's death was announced through state broadcasts across Yugoslavia. His death removed what many international political observers saw as Yugoslavia's main unifying force, and subsequently [[ethnic tension]] started to grow in Yugoslavia. The crisis that emerged in Yugoslavia was connected with the weakening of the [[Eastern Bloc|Communist states in Eastern Europe]] towards the end of the [[Cold War]], leading to the fall of the [[Berlin Wall]] in 1989. In Yugoslavia, the national communist party, officially called the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]], had lost its ideological base.<ref name="Pešić-USIP-LCY-potency">{{cite journal | publisher = [[United States Institute of Peace]] | url = http://www.usip.org/publications/serbian-nationalism-and-origins-yugoslav-crisis | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20101110084056/http://www.usip.org/publications/serbian-nationalism-and-origins-yugoslav-crisis | url-status = dead | archive-date = 10 November 2010 | title = Serbian Nationalism and the Origins of the Yugoslav Crisis | first= Vesna | last=Pešić | author-link=Vesna Pešić | journal= Peaceworks | issue= 8 | page= 12 |date=April 1996 | access-date=10 December 2010}}</ref>

In 1986, the [[Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts]] (SANU) contributed significantly to the rise of nationalist sentiments, as it drafted the controversial [[SANU Memorandum]] protesting against the weakening of the Serbian central government.

The problems in the Serbian [[Socialist Autonomous Province of Kosovo]] between [[Kosovo Serbs|ethnic Serbs]] and [[Kosovo Albanians|Albanians]] grew exponentially. This, coupled with economic problems in Kosovo and Serbia as a whole, led to even greater Serbian resentment of the [[1974 Yugoslav Constitution|1974 Constitution]]. Kosovo Albanians started to demand that Kosovo be granted the status of a constituent republic beginning in the early 1980s, particularly with the [[1981 protests in Kosovo]]. This was seen by the Serbian public as a devastating blow to Serb pride because of the historic links that Serbians held with Kosovo. It was viewed that that secession would be devastating to Kosovar Serbs. This eventually led to the repression of the Albanian majority in Kosovo.<ref name="NYTimes-Kosovo-Repression">{{cite news | newspaper = [[The New York Times]] | url = http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/serbia/kosovo/index.html | title = Kosovo | date = 23 July 2010 | access-date=10 December 2010}}</ref>{{nonspecific|date=August 2013}}

Meanwhile, the more prosperous republics of [[Socialist Republic of Slovenia|SR Slovenia]] and [[Socialist Republic of Croatia|SR Croatia]] wanted to move towards decentralization and democracy.<ref name="NYT-Croatia-Prosperity-1985">{{cite news | newspaper = The New York Times | url = https://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/08/world/yugoslav-republic-jealously-guards-its-gains.html?ref=croatia | title = Yugoslav republic jealously guards its gains | first= Henry |last=Kamm | author-link= Henry Kamm | date= 8 December 1985 | access-date=10 December 2010}}</ref>

The historian [[Basil Davidson]] contends that the "recourse to 'ethnicity' as an explanation [of the conflict] is pseudo-scientific nonsense". Even the degree of linguistic and religious differences "have been less substantial than instant commentators routinely tell us".{{citation needed|date=November 2023}} Davidson agrees with [[Susan Woodward]], who found the "motivating causes of the disintegration in economic circumstance and its ferocious pressures".<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Davidson |first=Basil |date=23 May 1996 |title=Misunderstanding Yugoslavia<!-- this isn't the title of the book being reviewed--> |url=https://www.lrb.co.uk/v18/n10/basil-davidson/misunderstanding-yugoslavia |journal=London Review of Books |volume=18 |issue=10}}</ref> Likewise, Sabine Rutar states that, “while antagonistic representations of the ethnic-national past indeed were heavily (mis-)used during the conflict, one must be careful not to turn these forceful categories of practice into categories of historical analysis”.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Rutar |first1=Sabine |editor1-last=Breuilly |editor1-first=John |title=The Oxford Handbook of the History of Nationalism |date=2013 |publisher=Oxford University Press |location=Oxford | isbn=978-0-19-876820-3 | page=526 | chapter=Nationalism in Southeastern Europe, 1970-2000}}</ref>

=== Economic collapse and the international climate ===
{{See also|Economy of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia}}
As President, Tito's policy was to push for rapid [[economic growth]], and growth was indeed high in the 1970s. However, the over-expansion of the economy caused [[inflation]] and pushed Yugoslavia into [[Recession|economic recession]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0005361799.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170124133751/https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0005361799.pdf|url-status=dead|archive-date=24 January 2017|title=YUGOSLAVIA: KEY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON THE DEBT CRISIS|date=2011-05-12|website=Directorate of Intelligence}}</ref>

A major problem for Yugoslavia was the heavy debt incurred in the 1970s, which proved to be difficult to repay in the 1980s.<ref name=":1">{{Cite web |last=M. Cvikl |first=Milan |date=June 1996 |title=Former Yugoslavia's Debt Apportionment |url=https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/735471538244644355/pdf/Former-Yugoslavias-debt-apportionment.pdf |website=documents1.worldbank.org}}</ref> Yugoslavia's debt load, initially estimated at a sum equal to $6 billion U.S. dollars, instead turned out to be equivalent to $21 billion U.S. dollars, which was a colossal sum for a poor country.<ref name=":1" /> In 1984, the [[Presidency of Ronald Reagan|Reagan administration]] issued a [[Classified information in the United States|classified]] document, [[National Security Decision Directive]] 133, expressing concern that Yugoslavia's debt load might cause the country to align with the Soviet bloc.<ref>National Security Decision Directive 133, [https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/23-2222t.gif United States Policy Toward Yugoslavia], 14 March 1984</ref> The 1980s were a time of [[Austerity|economic austerity]] as the [[International Monetary Fund]] (IMF) imposed stringent conditions on Yugoslavia, which caused much resentment toward the Communist elites who had so mismanaged the economy by recklessly borrowing money abroad.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} The policies of austerity also led to uncovering much corruption on the part of the elites, most notably with the "Agrokomerc affair" of 1987, when the [[Agrokomerc]] enterprise of Bosnia turned out to be the centre of a vast nexus of corruption running all across Yugoslavia, and that the managers of Agrokomerc had issued promissory notes equivalent to almost US$1 billion<ref>{{Cite news |last=Tagliabue |first=John |date=5 January 1989 |title=Agrokomerc Ex-Director Goes on Hunger Strike in Jail |url=https://apnews.com/article/b4a166e0ba4bded8f082cf8d0decfa57 |access-date=10 September 2021 |work=[[Associated Press]]}}</ref> without collateral, forcing the state to assume responsibility for their debts when Agrokomerc finally collapsed.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} The rampant corruption in Yugoslavia, of which the "Agrokomerc affair" was merely the most dramatic example, did much to discredit the Communist system, as it was revealed that the elites were living luxurious lifestyles, well beyond the means of ordinary people, with money stolen from the public purse during a time of austerity.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} The problems imposed by heavy indebtedness and corruption had by the mid-1980s increasingly started to corrode the legitimacy of the Communist system, as ordinary people started to lose faith in the competence and honesty of the elites.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=386–387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}}

A wave of major strikes developed in 1987–88 as workers demanded higher wages to compensate for inflation, as the IMF mandated the end of various [[Subsidy|subsidies]], and they were accompanied by denunciations of the entire system as corrupt.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} Finally, the politics of austerity brought to the fore tensions between the well off "have" republics like Slovenia and Croatia versus the poorer "have not" republics like Serbia.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=387}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} Both Croatia and Slovenia felt that they were paying too much money into the federal budget to support the "have not" republics, while Serbia wanted Croatia and Slovenia to pay more money into the federal budget to support them at a time of austerity.{{sfn|Crampton|1997|p=387-388}}{{failed verification|date=December 2022}} Increasingly, demands were voiced in Serbia for more centralisation in order to force Croatia and Slovenia to pay more into the federal budget, demands that were completely rejected in the "have" republics.<ref>{{Cite book |last=MacDonald |first=David Bruce |title=Balkan holocausts? Serbian and Croatian victim-centred propaganda and the war in Yugoslavia |date=2002 |publisher=Manchester University Press |isbn=978-0-7190-6466-1 |series=New approaches to conflict analysis |location=Manchester; New York : New York |pages=183–219 |chapter=Tito's Yugoslavia and after |jstor=j.ctt155jbrm.12}}</ref>

The [[Perestroika|relaxation of tensions]] with the Soviet Union after [[Mikhail Gorbachev]] became [[General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union]], the top position in 1985, meant that western nations were no longer willing to be generous with restructuring Yugoslavia's debts, as the example of a communist country outside of the [[Eastern Bloc]] was no longer needed by the West as a way of destabilising the Soviet bloc. The external status quo, which the Communist Party had depended upon to remain viable, was thus beginning to disappear. Furthermore, the failure of communism all over [[Central and Eastern Europe]] once again brought to the surface Yugoslavia's inner contradictions, [[Economic efficiency|economic inefficiencies]] (such as chronic lack of productivity, fuelled by the country's leaderships' decision to enforce a policy of [[full employment]]), and ethno-religious tensions. Yugoslavia's [[Non-Aligned Movement|non-aligned status]] resulted in access to loans from both superpower blocs. This contact with the United States and the West opened up Yugoslavia's markets sooner than the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. The 1980s were a decade of Western economic ministrations.{{citation needed|date=February 2019}}

A decade of frugality resulted in growing frustration and resentment against both the Serbian "ruling class", and the minorities who were seen to benefit from government legislation. Real earnings in Yugoslavia fell by 25% from 1979 to 1985. By 1988, emigrant remittances to Yugoslavia totalled over $4.5&nbsp;billion (USD), and by 1989 remittances were $6.2&nbsp;billion (USD), making up over 19% of the world's total.<ref name="Asch-Reichmann">Beth J. Asch, Courtland Reichmann, Rand Corporation. ''Emigration and Its Effects on the Sending Country''. Rand Corporation, 1994. p. 26.</ref><ref name="Massey-Taylor">Douglas S. Massey, J. Edward Taylor. ''International Migration: Prospects and Policies in a Global Market''. Oxford University Press, 2004. p. 159.</ref>

In 1990, US policy insisted on the [[shock therapy (economics)|shock therapy]] austerity programme that was meted out to the ex-[[Comecon]] countries. Such a programme had been advocated by the IMF and other organisations "as a condition for fresh injections of capital."<ref>{{Cite news |last=Tagliabue |first=John |date=6 December 1987 |title=Austerity and Unrest on Rise in Eastern Block |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1987/12/06/weekinreview/the-world-austerity-and-unrest-on-rise-in-eastern-bloc.html |access-date=22 February 2019 |work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref>

== Rise of nationalism in Serbia (1987–1989) ==
{{See also|Serbian nationalism}}

=== Slobodan Milošević ===
{{Main|Slobodan Milošević}}
[[File:Stevan Kragujevic, Slobodan Milosevic, portret (cropped).jpg|thumb|upright|Serbian President [[Slobodan Milošević]]'s unequivocal desire to uphold the unity of Serbs, a status which was threatened by each republic breaking away from the federation, in addition to his opposition to the Albanian authorities in Kosovo, further inflamed ethnic tensions.]]

In 1987, Serbian official [[Slobodan Milošević]] was sent to bring calm to an ethnically driven protest by Serbs against the Albanian administration of SAP Kosovo. Milošević had been, up to this point, a hard-line communist who had decried all forms of nationalism as treachery, such as condemning the [[SANU Memorandum]] as "nothing else but the darkest nationalism".<ref>Lampe, John R. 2000. ''Yugoslavia as History: Twice There Was a Country.'' Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. p347</ref> However, Kosovo's autonomy had always been an unpopular policy in Serbia, and he took advantage of the situation and made a departure from traditional communist neutrality on the issue of Kosovo.

Milošević assured Serbs that their mistreatment by ethnic Albanians would be stopped. He then began a campaign against the ruling communist elite of SR Serbia, demanding reductions in the autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina. These actions made him popular amongst Serbs and aided his rise to power in Serbia. Milošević and his allies took on an aggressive nationalist agenda of reviving SR Serbia within Yugoslavia, promising reforms and protection of all Serbs.

The ruling party of SFR Yugoslavia was the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]] (SKJ), a composite political party made-up of eight Leagues of Communists from the six republics and two autonomous provinces. The [[League of Communists of Serbia]] (SKS) governed SR Serbia. Riding the wave of nationalist sentiment and his new popularity gained in Kosovo, Slobodan Milošević (Chairman of the League of Communists of Serbia (SKS) since May 1986) became the most powerful politician in Serbia by defeating his former mentor President of Serbia [[Ivan Stambolić]] at the [[8th session of the Central Committee of the League of Communists of Serbia]] on 23–24 September 1987. At a 1988 rally in Belgrade, Milošević made clear his perception of the situation facing SR Serbia in Yugoslavia, saying:

{{blockquote|At home and abroad, Serbia's enemies are massing against us. We say to them "We are not afraid. We will not flinch from battle".|Slobodan Milošević, 19 November 1988.<ref name="Yugoslavia. British Broadcasting Corporation 1995">The Death of Yugoslavia. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). 1995.</ref>}}

On another occasion, he privately stated:

{{blockquote|We Serbs will act in the interest of Serbia whether we do it in compliance with the constitution or not, whether we do it in compliance in the law or not, whether we do it in compliance with party statutes or not.| Slobodan Milošević<ref>Ramet, Sabrina P. 2006. The Three Yugoslavias: State-Building and Legitimisation. Indiana University Press. p598.</ref>}}

=== Anti-bureaucratic revolution ===
{{Main|Anti-bureaucratic revolution}}
The [[Anti-bureaucratic revolution]] was a series of protests in Serbia and Montenegro orchestrated by Milošević to put his supporters in SAP Vojvodina, SAP Kosovo, and the [[Socialist Republic of Montenegro]] (SR Montenegro) to power as he sought to oust his rivals.
The government of Montenegro survived a coup d'état in October 1988,<ref>{{Cite news |last=Kamm |first=Henry |author-link=Henry Kamm |date=9 October 1988 |title=Yugoslav Police Fight Off A Siege in Provincial City |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1988/10/09/world/yugoslav-police-fight-off-a-siege-in-provincial-city.html?sq=Montenegro+protest&scp=26&st=nyt |access-date=2 February 2010 |work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref> but not a second one in January 1989.<ref>{{cite news |agency=[[Reuters]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/12/world/leaders-of-a-republic-in-yugoslavia-resign.html?sq=Titograd&scp=2&st=nyt |title=Leaders of a Republic in Yugoslavia Resign |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |date=12 January 1989 |access-date=7 February 2010 |archive-date=6 November 2012 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121106113747/http://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/12/world/leaders-of-a-republic-in-yugoslavia-resign.html}}</ref>

In addition to Serbia itself, Milošević could now install representatives of the two provinces and SR Montenegro in the Yugoslav Presidency Council. The very instrument that reduced Serbian influence before was now used to increase it: in the eight member Presidency, Milošević could count on a minimum of four votes – SR Montenegro (following local events), his own through SR Serbia, and now SAP Vojvodina and SAP Kosovo as well. In a series of rallies, called "Rallies of Truth", Milošević's supporters succeeded in overthrowing local governments and replacing them with his allies.

As a result of these events, in February 1989 [[Kosovo Albanians|ethnic Albanian]] miners in Kosovo [[1989 Kosovo miners' strike|organized a strike]], demanding the preservation of the now-endangered autonomy.<ref name="Ramet2010">{{cite book|last=Ramet|first=Sabrina P.|title=Central and Southeast European Politics Since 1989|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=oFXdiS25N78C&pg=PA361|access-date=9 March 2012|date=18 February 2010|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=9780521716161|page=361}}</ref> This contributed to ethnic conflict between the Albanian and Serb populations of the province. At [[Demographics of Kosovo#1968-1989: Autonomy|77% of the population]] of Kosovo in the 1980s, ethnic-Albanians were the majority.

In June 1989, the 600th anniversary of Serbia's [[Battle of Kosovo|historic defeat]] at the field of Kosovo, Slobodan Milošević gave the [[Gazimestan speech]] to 200,000 Serbs, with a Serb nationalist theme which deliberately evoked [[History of Serbia|medieval Serbian history]]. Milošević's answer to the incompetence of the federal system was to centralise the government. Considering Slovenia and Croatia were looking farther ahead to independence, this was considered unacceptable.

=== Repercussions ===
Meanwhile, the [[Socialist Republic of Croatia]] (SR Croatia) and the [[Socialist Republic of Slovenia]] (SR Slovenia), supported the Albanian miners and their struggle for recognition. Media in SR Slovenia published articles comparing Milošević to [[Italian Fascism|Italian fascist]] dictator [[Benito Mussolini]]. Milošević contended that such criticism was unfounded and amounted to "spreading fear of Serbia".<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20071019033228/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,968740,00.html "Communism O Nationalism!"]. ''Time''. (24 October 1988).</ref> Milošević's state-run media claimed in response that [[Milan Kučan]], head of the [[League of Communists of Slovenia]], was endorsing Kosovo and Slovene separatism. Initial strikes in Kosovo turned into widespread demonstrations calling for Kosovo to be made the seventh republic. This angered Serbia's leadership which proceeded to use police force, and later the federal army (the [[Yugoslav People's Army]] JNA) by order of the Serbian-controlled Presidency.

In February 1989 ethnic Albanian [[Azem Vllasi]], SAP Kosovo's representative on the Presidency, was forced to resign and was replaced by an ally of Milošević. Albanian protesters demanded that Vllasi be returned to office, and Vllasi's support for the demonstrations caused Milošević and his allies to respond stating this was a "counter-revolution against Serbia and Yugoslavia", and demanded that the federal Yugoslav government put down the striking Albanians by force. Milošević's aim was aided when a huge protest was formed outside of the Yugoslav parliament in Belgrade by Serb supporters of Milošević who demanded that the Yugoslav military forces make their presence stronger in Kosovo to protect the Serbs there and put down the strike.

On 27 February, SR Slovene representative in the collective presidency of Yugoslavia, [[Milan Kučan]], opposed the demands of the Serbs and left Belgrade for SR Slovenia where he attended a meeting in the [[Cankar Hall]] in Ljubljana, co-organized with the [[Democratic Opposition of Slovenia|democratic opposition forces]], publicly endorsing the efforts of Albanian protesters who demanded that Vllasi be released. In the 1995 [[BBC Two|BBC2]] documentary ''[[The Death of Yugoslavia]]'', Kučan claimed that in 1989, he was concerned that with the successes of Milošević's anti-bureaucratic revolution in Serbia's provinces as well as Montenegro, that his small republic would be the next target for a [[Coup d'état|political coup]] by Milošević's supporters if the coup in Kosovo went unimpeded. [[Radio Television of Serbia|Serbian state-run television]] denounced Kučan as a separatist, a traitor, and an endorser of Albanian separatism.

Serb protests continued in Belgrade demanding action in Kosovo. Milošević instructed communist representative [[Petar Gračanin]] to make sure the protest continued while he discussed matters at the council of the League of Communists, as a means to induce the other members to realize that enormous support was on his side in putting down the Albanian strike in Kosovo. Serbian parliament speaker [[Borisav Jović]], a strong ally of Milošević, met with the current President of the Yugoslav Presidency, Bosnian representative [[Raif Dizdarević]], and demanded that the federal government concede to Serbian demands. Dizdarević argued with Jović saying that "You [Serbian politicians] organized the demonstrations, you control it", Jović refused to take responsibility for the actions of the protesters. Dizdarević then decided to attempt to bring calm to the situation himself by talking with the protesters, by making an impassioned speech for unity of Yugoslavia saying:

{{blockquote|Our fathers died to create Yugoslavia. We will not go down the road to national conflict. We will take the path of [[Brotherhood and Unity]].|Raif Dizdarević, 1989.<ref name="Yugoslavia. British Broadcasting Corporation 1995" />}}

This statement received polite applause, but the protest continued. Later Jović spoke to the crowds with enthusiasm and told them that Milošević was going to arrive to support their protest. When Milošević arrived, he spoke to the protesters and jubilantly told them that the people of Serbia were winning their fight against the old party bureaucrats. A shout came from the crowd to "arrest Vllasi". Milošević pretended not to hear the demand correctly but declared to the crowd that anyone conspiring against the unity of Yugoslavia would be arrested and punished. The next day, with the party council pushed into submission to Serbia, Yugoslav army forces poured into Kosovo and Vllasi was arrested.

In March 1989, the crisis in Yugoslavia deepened after the adoption of amendments to the [[Constitution of Serbia|Serbian constitution]] that allowed the Serbian republic's government to re-assert effective power over the autonomous provinces of Kosovo and Vojvodina. Up until that time, a number of political decisions were legislated from within these provinces, and they had a vote on the [[List of heads of state of Yugoslavia|Yugoslav federal presidency]] level (six members from the republics and two members from the autonomous provinces).<ref>{{cite web|title=A Country Study: Yugoslavia (Former): Political Innovation and the 1974 Constitution (chapter 4) | url= http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/yutoc.html#yu0130 | publisher= The Library of Congress| access-date=27 January 2011}}</ref>

A group of Kosovo Serb supporters of Milošević who helped bring down Vllasi declared that they were going to Slovenia to hold "the [[Rally of Truth]]" which would decry Milan Kučan as a traitor to Yugoslavia and demand his ousting. However, the attempt to replay the anti-bureaucratic revolution in [[Ljubljana]] in December 1989 failed: the Serb protesters who were to go by train to Slovenia were stopped when the police of SR Croatia blocked all transit through its territory in coordination with the Slovene police forces.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fvv.uni-mb.si/varstvoslovje/Abstract.aspx?cid=329 |title=Historical Circumstances in Which "The Rally of Truth" in Ljubljana Was Prevented |publisher=Journal of Criminal Justice and Security |access-date=4 July 2012 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131213053210/http://www.fvv.uni-mb.si/varstvoslovje/Abstract.aspx?cid=329 |archive-date=13 December 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.rtvslo.si/osamosvojitev/prispevek/108/predvajaj/|title=Rally of truth (Miting resnice)|publisher= A documentary published by [[RTV Slovenija]]|access-date=4 July 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.akcijasever.si/|title=akcijasever.si|publisher=The "North" Veteran Organization|access-date=3 July 2012|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171229002346/http://www.akcijasever.si/|archive-date=29 December 2017|url-status=dead}}</ref>

In the [[Presidency of Yugoslavia]], Serbia's [[Borisav Jović]] (at the time the President of the Presidency), Montenegro's [[Nenad Bućin]], Vojvodina's [[Jugoslav Kostić]] and Kosovo's [[Riza Sapunxhiu]], started to form a voting bloc.<ref name="bhdani-2001" />

== Final political crisis (1990–1992) ==

=== Party crisis ===
{{Main|14th Congress of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia}}
In January 1990, the extraordinary [[14th Congress of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia]] was convened. The combined Yugoslav ruling party, the [[League of Communists of Yugoslavia]] (SKJ), was in crisis. Most of the Congress was spent with the Serbian and Slovene delegations arguing over the future of the League of Communists and Yugoslavia. SR Croatia prevented Serb protesters from reaching Slovenia. The Serbian delegation, led by Milošević, insisted on a policy of "one person, one vote" in the party membership, which would empower the largest party ethnic group, the [[Serbs]].

In turn, the Croats and Slovenes sought to reform Yugoslavia by delegating even more power to six republics, but were voted down continuously in every motion and attempt to force the party to adopt the new voting system. As a result, the Croatian delegation, led by Chairman [[Ivica Račan]], and Slovene delegation left the Congress on 23 January 1990, effectively dissolving the all-Yugoslav party. Along with external pressure, this caused the adoption of multi-party systems in all the republics.

=== Multi-party elections ===
{{Main|1990 Slovenian parliamentary election|1990 Croatian parliamentary election|1990 Macedonian parliamentary election|1990 Bosnian general election|1990 Montenegrin general election|1990 Serbian general election}}
The individual republics organized multi-party elections in 1990, and the former communists mostly failed to win re-election, while most of the elected governments took on nationalist platforms, promising to protect their separate nationalist interests. In multi-party parliamentary elections nationalists defeated re-branded former Communist parties in Slovenia on [[1990 Slovenian parliamentary election|8 April 1990]], in Croatia on [[1990 Croatian parliamentary election|22 April and 2 May 1990]], in Macedonia [[1990 Macedonian parliamentary election|11 and 25 November and 9 December 1990]], and in Bosnia and Herzegovina on [[1990 Bosnian general election|18 and 25 November 1990]].

In multi-party parliamentary elections, re-branded former communist parties were victorious in Montenegro on [[1990 Montenegrin general election|9 and 16 December 1990]], and in Serbia on [[1990 Serbian general election|9 and 23 December 1990]]. In addition Serbia re-elected Slobodan Milošević as president. Serbia and Montenegro now increasingly favored a Serb-dominated Yugoslavia.

=== Ethnic tensions in Croatia ===
{{Main|Log Revolution}}
{{Pie chart
|thumb = right
|caption = Еthnicities in Croatia 1991<ref>{{cite web|title=Stanovništvo prema nacionalnoj pripadnosti i površina naselja, popis 1991. za Hrvatsku|page=1|url=https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G1991/Pdf/G19914018.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200718090103/https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G1991/Pdf/G19914018.pdf|url-status=dead|archive-date=2020-07-18}}</ref>
|label1 = [[Croats]]
|value1 = 78.1
|color1 = Blue
|label2 = [[Serbs]]
|value2 = 12.2
|color2 = Red
|label3 = [[Yugoslavs]] 
|value3 = 2.2
|color3 = Pink
|label4 = Others 
|value4 = 9.7
|color4 = Light
}}

In Croatia, the [[Croatian nationalism|nationalist]] [[Croatian Democratic Union]] (HDZ) was elected to power, led by controversial nationalist [[Franjo Tuđman]], under the promise of "protecting Croatia from Milošević", publicly advocating Croatian sovereignty. [[Serbs of Croatia|Croatian Serbs]] were wary of Tuđman's nationalist government, and in 1990 [[Serbian nationalism|Serb nationalists]] in the southern Croatian town of [[Knin]] organized and formed a separatist entity known as the [[SAO Krajina]], which demanded to remain in union with the rest of the Serb population if Croatia decided to secede. The government of Serbia endorsed the rebellion of the [[Serbs of Croatia|Croatian Serbs]], claiming that for Serbs, rule under Tuđman's government would be equivalent to the [[World War II]] era [[Fascism|fascist]] [[Independent State of Croatia]] (NDH), which committed [[Genocide of Serbs in the Independent State of Croatia|genocide against Serbs]]. Milošević used this to rally Serbs against the Croatian government and Serbian newspapers joined in the warmongering.<ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.nytimes.com/1990/08/19/world/roads-sealed-as-yugoslav-unrest-mounts.html?sq=Tudjman&scp=7&st=nyt | work=The New York Times | title=Roads Sealed as Yugoslav Unrest Mounts | date=19 August 1990 | access-date=26 April 2010}}</ref> Serbia had by now printed $1.8&nbsp;billion worth of new money without any backing of the [[National Bank of Yugoslavia|Yugoslav National Bank]].<ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.nytimes.com/1991/01/10/world/financial-scandal-rocks-yugoslavia.html | work=The New York Times | title=Financial Scandal Rocks Yugoslavia | first=Chuck | last=Sudetic | date=10 January 1991 | access-date=26 April 2010}}</ref>

[[File:Franjo Tudjman 1995.jpg|thumb|left|upright|Croatian President [[Franjo Tuđman]]]]

Croatian Serbs in [[Knin]], under the leadership of local police inspector [[Milan Martić]], began to try to gain access to weapons so that the Croatian Serbs could mount a successful revolt against the Croatian government. Croatian Serb politicians including the Mayor of Knin met with [[Borisav Jović]], the head of the Yugoslav Presidency in August 1990, and urged him to push the council to take action to prevent Croatia from separating from Yugoslavia, because they claimed that the Serb population would be in danger in Croatia which was ruled by Tuđman and his nationalist government.

At the meeting, army official [[Petar Gračanin]] told the Croatian Serb politicians how to organize their rebellion, telling them to put up barricades, as well as assemble weapons of any sort, saying "If you can't get anything else, use hunting rifles". Initially the revolt became known as the "[[Log Revolution]]", as Serbs blockaded roadways to Knin with cut-down trees and prevented Croats from entering Knin or the Croatian coastal region of [[Dalmatia]]. The BBC documentary ''The Death of Yugoslavia'' revealed that at the time, Croatian TV dismissed the "Log Revolution" as the work of drunken Serbs, trying to diminish the serious dispute. However, the blockade was damaging to Croatian tourism. The Croatian government refused to negotiate with the Serb separatists and decided to stop the rebellion by force, sending in armed special forces by helicopters to put down the rebellion.

The pilots claimed they were bringing "equipment" to Knin, but the federal [[Yugoslav Air Force]] intervened and sent [[Fighter aircraft|fighter jets]] to intercept them and demanded that the [[helicopter]]s return to their base or they would be fired upon, in which the Croatian forces obliged and returned to their base in [[Zagreb]]. To the Croatian government, this action by the Yugoslav air force revealed to them that the [[Yugoslav People's Army]] was increasingly under Serbian control. SAO Krajina was officially declared a separate entity on 21 December 1990 by the [[Serb National Council|Serbian National Council]] which was headed by [[Milan Babić]].

In August 1990 the [[Croatian Parliament]] replaced its representative [[Stipe Šuvar]] with [[Stjepan Mesić]] in the wake of the Log Revolution.<ref>{{cite news | url = http://www.slobodnaevropa.org/content/article/1045346.html | publisher = [[Radio Free Europe]] | language = hr | title = Svjedoci raspada – Stipe Šuvar: Moji obračuni s njima | newspaper = Radio Slobodna Evropa | date = 27 February 2008 | access-date = 2012-11-27 | last1 = Perišin | first1 = Tena }}</ref> Mesić was only seated in October 1990 because of protests from the Serbian side, and then joined Macedonia's [[Vasil Tupurkovski]], Slovenia's [[Janez Drnovšek]] and Bosnia and Herzegovina's [[Bogić Bogićević]] in opposing the demands to proclaim a general [[state of emergency]], which would have allowed the [[Yugoslav People's Army]] to impose [[martial law]].<ref name="bhdani-2001" />

Following the first multi-party election results, the republics of Slovenia, Croatia, and Macedonia proposed transforming Yugoslavia into a loose federation of six republics in the autumn of 1990, however Milošević rejected all such proposals, arguing that like Slovenes and Croats, the Serbs also had a right to self-determination. Serbian politicians were alarmed by a change of phrasing in the [[Christmas Constitution]] of Croatia that changed the status of ethnic Serbs of Croatia from an explicitly mentioned nation (''narod'') to a nation listed together with minorities (''narodi i manjine'').{{clarify|reason=per Talk|date=January 2012}}

=== Independence of Slovenia and Croatia ===
{{Main|1990 Slovenian independence referendum|1991 Croatian independence referendum}}
[[File:Referendum Yugoslavia A.png|thumb|Independence referendums results in Yugoslavia between 1990-1992 and the percentage of votes in favor.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.izbori.hr/arhiva/pdf/1991/1991_Rezultati_Referendum.pdf |title=1991 Rezultati Referendum |website=izbori.hr |access-date=25 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120227183944/http://www.izbori.hr/arhiva/pdf/1991/1991_Rezultati_Referendum.pdf |archive-date=27 February 2012 |url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://csce.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=UserGroups.Home&ContentRecord_id=250&ContentType=G&ContentRecordType=G&UserGroup_id=5&Subaction=ByDate |title=CSCE :: Article :: Report: The Referendum on Independence in Bosnia-Herzegovina |website=csce.gov |access-date=25 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110522132353/http://csce.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=UserGroups.Home&ContentRecord_id=250&ContentType=G&ContentRecordType=G&UserGroup_id=5&Subaction=ByDate |archive-date=22 May 2011 |url-status=dead}}</ref>]]
In the [[1990 Slovenian independence referendum]], held on 23 December 1990, a vast majority of residents voted for independence:<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gateway/file.php?name=epern-ref-no-3.pdf&site=266 |title=REFERENDUM BRIEFING NO 3|url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101218000730/http://www.sussex.ac.uk/sei/documents/slovenian3.pdf |archive-date=18 December 2010}}</ref> 88.5% of all electors (94.8% of those participating) voted for independence, which was declared on 25 June 1991.<ref name="Juberias">{{cite book|chapter-url=http://crnvo.me/docs/biblio_eng/p10.pdf |title=Legal Aspects for Referendum in Montenegro in the Context of International Law and Practice |date=November 2005 |chapter=Some legal (and political) considerations about the legal framework for referendum in Montenegro, in the light of European experiences and standards |last=Flores Juberías |first=Carlos |page=74 |publisher=Foundation Open Society Institute, Representative Office Montenegro |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120201134229/http://crnvo.me/docs/biblio_eng/p10.pdf |archive-date=1 February 2012 }}</ref><ref name="STAT11">{{Cite book |title=Statistični letopis 2011 |publisher=Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia |year=2011 |volume=15 |page=108 |trans-title=Statistical Yearbook 2011 |chapter=Volitve |trans-chapter=Elections |issn=1318-5403 |chapter-url=http://www.stat.si/letopis/2011/05_11/05-11-11.htm}}</ref>

In January 1991, the Yugoslav counter-intelligence service, [[KOS (Yugoslavia)|KOS]] (''Kontraobaveštajna služba''), displayed a video of a secret meeting (the "[[Špegelj Tapes]]") that they purported had happened some time in 1990 between the Croatian Defence Minister, [[Martin Špegelj]], and two other men.{{citation needed|date=December 2023}}  Špegelj announced during the meeting that Croatia was at war with the [[Yugoslav People's Army]] (JNA, ''Jugoslovenska Narodna Armija'') and gave instructions about arms smuggling as well as methods of dealing with the Army's officers stationed in Croatian cities. The Army subsequently wanted to indict Špegelj for treason and illegal importation of arms, mainly from [[Hungary]].{{citation needed|date=December 2023}}

The discovery of Croatian arms smuggling combined with the crisis in Knin, the election of independence-leaning governments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, and Slovenia, and Slovenes demanding independence in the referendum on the issue suggested that Yugoslavia faced the imminent threat of disintegration.

On 1 March 1991, the [[Pakrac clash]] ensued, and the JNA was deployed to the scene. On 9 March 1991, [[March 1991 protests in Belgrade|protests in Belgrade]] were suppressed with the help of the Army.

On 12 March 1991, the leadership of the Army met with the [[Presidency of the SFRY|Presidency]] in an attempt to convince them to declare a [[state of emergency]] which would allow for the pan-Yugoslav army to take control of the country. Yugoslav army chief [[Veljko Kadijević]] declared that there was a conspiracy to destroy the country, saying:

{{blockquote|An insidious plan has been drawn up to destroy Yugoslavia. Stage one is civil war. Stage two is foreign intervention. Then puppet regimes will be set up throughout Yugoslavia.|Veljko Kadijević, 12 March 1991.<ref name="Yugoslavia. British Broadcasting Corporation 1995" />}}
[[File:Turnout Yugoslav Referendums.png|thumb|Percentage of turnouts during the 1990-1992 referendums in Yugoslavia]]
This statement effectively implied that the new independence-advocating governments of the republics were seen by Serbs as tools of the West. Croatian delegate [[Stjepan Mesić]] responded angrily to the proposal, accusing Jović and Kadijević of attempting to use the army to create a [[Greater Serbia]] and declared "That means war!". Jović and Kadijević then called upon the delegates of each republic to vote on whether to allow martial law, and warned them that Yugoslavia would likely fall apart if martial law was not introduced.

In the meeting, a vote was taken on a proposal to enact [[martial law]] to allow for military action to end the crisis in Croatia by providing protection for the Serbs. The proposal was rejected as the Bosnian delegate [[Bogić Bogićević]] voted against it, believing that there was still the possibility of diplomacy being able to solve the crisis.

The Yugoslav presidential crisis reached an impasse when Kosovo's [[Riza Sapunxhiu]] 'defected' his faction in the second vote on martial law in March 1991.<ref name="bhdani-2001" />
Jović briefly resigned from the presidency in protest, but soon returned.<ref name="bhdani-2001" /> On 16 May 1991, the Serbian parliament replaced Sapunxhiu with [[Sejdo Bajramović]], and Vojvodina's [[Nenad Bućin]] with [[Jugoslav Kostić]].<ref name="Mesić33">{{harvnb|Mesić|2004|p=33}}</ref> This effectively deadlocked the Presidency, because Milošević's Serbian faction had secured four out of eight federal presidency votes, and it was able to block any unfavorable decisions at the federal level, in turn causing objections from other republics and calls for reform of the Yugoslav Federation.<ref name="bhdani-2001">{{cite news | url = http://www.bhdani.com/arhiva/208/t20801.shtml | language = bs | newspaper = [[BH Dani]] | title = Stjepan Mesić, svjedok kraja (I) – Ja sam inicirao sastanak na kojem je podijeljena Bosna | date = 1 June 2001 | issue = 208 | access-date = 2012-11-27 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20121124000715/http://www.bhdani.com/arhiva/208/t20801.shtml | archive-date = 24 November 2012 | url-status = usurped}}</ref><ref name="Brown116">{{harvnb|Brown|Karim|1995|p=116}}</ref><ref name="Frucht433">{{harvnb|Frucht|2005|p=433}}</ref>

After Jović's term as head of the collective presidency expired, he blocked his successor, Mesić, from taking the position, giving the position instead to [[Branko Kostić]], a member of the pro-Milošević government in Montenegro.

In the [[1991 Croatian independence referendum|Croatian independence referendum held on 2 May 1991]], 93.24% voted for independence. On 19 May 1991, the second round of the referendum on the structure of the Yugoslav federation was held in Croatia. The phrasing of the question did not explicitly inquire as to whether one was in favor of secession or not. Voters were asked if they supported Croatia being "able to enter into an alliance of sovereign states with other republics (in accordance with the proposal of the republics of Croatia and Slovenia for solving the state crisis in the SFRY)?". 83.56% of the voters turned out, with Croatian Serbs largely boycotting the referendum. Of these, 94.17% (78.69% of the total voting population) voted "in favor" of the proposal, while 1.2% of those who voted were "opposed". Finally, the [[independence of Croatia]] was declared on 25 June 1991.

== The beginning of the Yugoslav Wars==
{{Main|Yugoslav Wars}}

=== War in Slovenia (1991) ===
{{Main|Ten-Day War}}
Both Slovenia and Croatia declared their independence on 25 June 1991. This was declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court of Yugoslavia, as the [[1974 Yugoslav Constitution]] required unanimity of all republics for the secession of any of the republics (Articles 5, 203, 237, 240, 244 and 281).

On the morning of 26 June, units of the [[Yugoslav People's Army]]'s 13th Corps left their barracks in [[Rijeka]], [[Croatia]], to move towards [[Slovenia]]'s borders with [[Italy]]. The move immediately led to a strong reaction from local Slovenians, who organized spontaneous [[barricades]] and demonstrations against the JNA's actions. There was no fighting, as yet, and both sides appeared to have an unofficial policy of not being the first to open fire.

By this time, the Slovenian government had already put into action its plan to seize control of both the international [[Ljubljana Airport]] and Slovenia's border posts on borders with Italy, Austria and Hungary. The personnel manning the border posts were, in most cases, already Slovenians, so the Slovenian take-over mostly simply amounted to changing of uniforms and insignia, without any fighting. By taking control of the borders, the Slovenians were able to establish defensive positions against an expected JNA attack. This meant that the JNA would have to fire the first shot, which was fired on 26 June at 14:30 in [[Divača]] by an officer of the JNA<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.rtvslo.si/zabava/na-danasnji-dan/zgodilo-se-je-27-junija/167901 |title=Zgodilo se je&nbsp;... 27. junija |language=sl |trans-title=It Happened On&nbsp;... 27 June |publisher=MMC RTV Slovenia |date=27 June 2005}}</ref>

Whilst supportive of their respective rights to national self-determination, the [[European Economic Community|European Community]] pressured [[Slovenia]] and [[Croatia]] to place a three-month moratorium on their independence, and reached the [[Brioni Agreement]] on 7 July 1991 (recognized by representatives of all republics).<ref>Woodward, Susan, L. Balkan Tragedy: Chaos & Dissolution after the Cold War, the Brookings Institution Press, Virginia, USA, 1995, p. 200</ref> During these three months, the Yugoslav Army completed its pull-out from Slovenia. Negotiations to restore the Yugoslav federation with diplomat [[Peter Carington, 6th Baron Carrington|Lord Carrington]] and members of the [[European Communities|European Community]] were all but ended. Carrington's plan realized that Yugoslavia was in a state of dissolution and decided that each republic must accept the inevitable independence of the others, along with a promise to Serbian President Milošević that the [[European Economic Community|European Community]] would ensure that [[Serbian diaspora|Serbs outside of Serbia]] would be protected.

Milošević refused to agree to the plan, as he claimed that the European Community had no right to dissolve Yugoslavia and that the plan was not in the interests of Serbs as it would divide the Serb people into four republics (Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia). Carrington responded by putting the issue to a vote in which all the other republics, including Montenegro under [[Momir Bulatović]], initially agreed to the plan that would dissolve Yugoslavia. However, after intense pressure from Serbia on Montenegro's president, Montenegro changed its position to oppose the dissolution of Yugoslavia.

Lord Carrington's opinions were rendered moot following [[German reunification|newly reunited]] Germany's Christmas Eve 1991 recognition of Slovenia and Croatia. Except for secret negotiations between foreign ministers [[Hans-Dietrich Genscher]] (Germany) and [[Alois Mock]] (Austria), the unilateral recognition came as an unwelcome surprise to most EC governments and the [[United States]], with whom there was no prior consultation. International organisations, including the [[United Nations]], were nonplussed. While Yugoslavia was already in a shambles, it is likely that German recognition of the breakaway republics—and Austrian partial mobilization on the border—made things a good deal worse for the decomposing multinational state. US President [[George H. W. Bush|George H.W. Bush]] was the only major power representative to voice an objection. The extent of [[Holy See|Vatican]] and Federal Intelligence Agency of Germany ([[Federal Intelligence Service (Germany)|BND]]) intervention in this episode has been explored by scholars familiar with the details, but the historical record remains disputed.

=== War in Croatia (1991) ===
{{Main|Croatian War of Independence|Independence of Croatia}}
{{Politics of Yugoslavia}}
With the [[Plitvice Lakes incident]] of late March/early April 1991, the [[Croatian War of Independence]] broke out between the Croatian government and the rebel ethnic Serbs of the [[SAO Krajina|Serbian Autonomous Province of Krajina]] (heavily backed by the by-now Serb-controlled Yugoslav People's Army). On 1 April 1991, the [[SAO Krajina]] declared that it would secede from Croatia. Immediately after Croatia's declaration of independence, Croatian Serbs also formed the [[SAO Western Slavonia]] and the [[SAO of Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Srijem]]. These three regions would combine into the self-proclaimed [[proto-state]] [[Republic of Serbian Krajina]] (RSK) on 19 December 1991.

The other significant Serb-dominated entities in [[eastern Croatia]] announced that they too would join SAO Krajina. Zagreb had by this time discontinued submitting tax money to Belgrade, and the Croatian Serb entities in turn halted paying taxes to Zagreb. In some places, the Yugoslav Army acted as a [[buffer zone]],{{Where|date=January 2013}} in others it aided Serbs in their confrontation with the new [[Croatian Army|Croatian army]] and police forces.{{clarify|reason=How does creating a buffer zone protecting territorial gains by one side differ from aiding? Or is this meant to say actively aiding, i.e. fighting?|date=January 2013}}

The influence of [[xenophobia]] and ethnic hatred in the collapse of Yugoslavia became clear during the war in Croatia. Propaganda by Croatian and Serbian sides spread fear, claiming that the other side would engage in oppression against them and would exaggerate death tolls to increase support from their populations.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.icty.org/x/cases/slobodan_milosevic/ind/en/mil-ai040421-e.htm|title=THE PROSECUTOR OF THE TRIBUNAL AGAINST SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC|access-date=24 January 2016}}</ref> In the beginning months of the war, the Serb-dominated Yugoslav army and navy deliberately shelled civilian areas of [[Split (city)|Split]] and [[Dubrovnik]], a [[World Heritage Site|UNESCO World Heritage Site]], as well as nearby Croat villages.<ref name="yorku.ca">{{cite web|url=http://www.yorku.ca/soi/_Vol_5_1/_HTML/Pavlovic.html|title=Pavlovic: The Siege of Dubrovnik|work=yorku.ca}}</ref> Yugoslav media claimed that the actions were done due to what they claimed was a presence of fascist Ustaše forces and international terrorists in the city.<ref name="yorku.ca" />

UN investigations found that no such forces were in Dubrovnik at the time.<ref name="yorku.ca" /> [[Armed Forces of Croatia|Croatian Armed Forces]] presence increased later on. Montenegrin Prime Minister [[Milo Đukanović]], at the time an ally of Milošević, appealed to [[Montenegrin nationalism]], promising that the capture of Dubrovnik would allow the expansion of Montenegro into the city which he claimed was historically part of Montenegro, and denounced the present borders of Montenegro as being "drawn by the old and poorly educated [[Bolshevik]] cartographers".<ref name="yorku.ca" />

At the same time, the Serbian government contradicted its Montenegrin allies with claims by the Serbian Prime Minister [[Dragutin Zelenović]] that Dubrovnik was historically Serbian, not Montenegrin.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.yorku.ca/soi/_Vol_5_1/_HTML/Pavlovic.html#fnB28|title=Pavlovic: The Siege of Dubrovnik|work=yorku.ca}}</ref> The international media gave immense attention to [[Siege of Dubrovnik|bombardment of Dubrovnik]] and claimed this was evidence of Milosevic pursuing the creation of a [[Greater Serbia]] as Yugoslavia collapsed, presumably with the aid of the subordinate Montenegrin leadership of Bulatović and Serb nationalists in Montenegro to foster Montenegrin support for the retaking of Dubrovnik.<ref name="yorku.ca" />

In [[Vukovar]], ethnic tensions between Croats and Serbs exploded into violence when the [[Battle of Vukovar|Yugoslav army entered the town]]. The Yugoslav army and [[Serb Volunteer Guard|Serbian paramilitaries]] devastated the town in [[urban warfare]] and the destruction of Croatian property. Serb paramilitaries committed atrocities against Croats, killing over 200, and displacing others to add to those who fled the town in the [[Vukovar massacre]].<ref>{{cite news| url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7016290.stm |publisher=BBC News  | title=Two jailed over Croatia massacre | date=27 September 2007 | access-date=26 April 2010}}</ref>

== Independence of the Republic of Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina ==

=== Bosnia and Herzegovina ===
{{Main|1992 Bosnian independence referendum|Bosnian War}}
[[File:Izetbegovic.jpg|thumb|upright|Bosnian Muslim leader [[Alija Izetbegović]]]]
[[File:Evstafiev-Radovan Karadzic 3MAR94.jpg|thumb|upright|Bosnian Serb leader [[Radovan Karadžić]]]]

With Bosnia's demographic structure comprising a mixed population of a plurality of [[Bosniaks]], and minorities of Serbs and Croats, the ownership of large areas of Bosnia was in dispute.

From 1991 to 1992, the situation in the multiethnic Bosnia and Herzegovina grew tense. Its parliament was fragmented on ethnic lines into a plurality Bosniak faction and minority Serb and Croat factions. In October 1991, [[Radovan Karadžić]], the leader of the largest Serb faction in the parliament, the [[Serbian Democratic Party (Bosnia and Herzegovina)|Serb Democratic Party]], gave a grave and direct warning to the [[People's Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina]] should it decide to separate, saying:

{{blockquote|This, what you are doing, is not good. This is the path that you want to take Bosnia and Herzegovina on, the same highway of hell and death that Slovenia and Croatia went on. Don't think that you won't take Bosnia and Herzegovina into hell, and the Muslim people maybe into extinction. Because the Muslim people cannot defend themselves if there is war here.|Radovan Karadžić, 14 October 1991.<ref>[http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=l8266&PHPSESSID=vij9lc6hpha284rr3albg7ii75 Karadzic and Mladic: The Worlds Most Wanted Men – FOCUS Information Agency<!-- Bot generated title -->] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090416123607/http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=l8266&PHPSESSID=vij9lc6hpha284rr3albg7ii75 |date=16 April 2009 }}</ref>}}

In the meantime, behind the scenes, negotiations began between Milošević and Tuđman to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina into Serb and Croat administered territories to attempt to avert war between [[Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina|Bosnian Croats]] and [[Serbs of Bosnia and Herzegovina|Bosnian Serbs]].{{sfn|Lukic|Lynch|1996|p=209}} Bosnian Serbs held a [[1991 Bosnian Serb referendum|referendum in November 1991]] resulting in an overwhelming vote in favor of staying in a common state with Serbia and Montenegro.

In public, pro-state media in [[Republic of Serbia (1992–2006)|Serbia]] claimed to Bosnians that Bosnia and Herzegovina could be included a new voluntary union within a new Yugoslavia based on democratic government, but this was not taken seriously by Bosnia and Herzegovina's government.<ref>Burg, Steven L; Shoup, Paul S. 1999. ''The War in Bosnia-Herzegovina: Ethnic Conflict and International Intervention''. M.E. Sharpe. p102</ref>

On 9 January 1992, the Bosnian Serb assembly proclaimed a separate Republic of the Serb people of Bosnia and Herzegovina (the soon-to-be [[Republika Srpska (1992–1995)|Republika Srpska]]), and proceeded to form [[Serb Autonomous Regions|Serbian autonomous regions]] (SARs) throughout the state. The Serbian referendum on remaining in Yugoslavia and the creation of SARs were proclaimed unconstitutional by the government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

A [[1992 Bosnia and Herzegovina independence referendum|referendum on independence]] sponsored by the Bosnian government was held on 29 February and 1 March 1992. The referendum was declared contrary to the Bosnian and federal constitution by the federal Constitution Court and the newly established Bosnian Serb government, and it was largely boycotted by the Bosnian Serbs. According to the official results, the turnout was 63.4%, and 99.7% of the voters voted for independence.<ref>{{cite report| title = The Referendum on Independence in Bosnia-Herzegovina: February 29-March 1, 1992| journal = Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe | date = 12 March 1992| location = Washington D.C.| url = http://csce.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=UserGroups.Home&ContentRecord_id=250&ContentType=G&ContentRecordType=G&UserGroup_id=5&Subaction=ByDate| url-status = dead| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110522132353/http://csce.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=UserGroups.Home&ContentRecord_id=250&ContentType=G&ContentRecordType=G&UserGroup_id=5&Subaction=ByDate| archive-date = 22 May 2011}}</ref> It was unclear what the two-thirds majority requirement actually meant and whether it was satisfied.

[[File:Evstafiev-sarajevo-building-burns.jpg|thumb|upright|left|The [[Greece–Bosnia and Herzegovina Friendship Building|executive council building]] in Sarajevo in flames after being hit by Serbian artillery in 1992.]]

Bosnia and Herzegovina declared independence on 3 March 1992 and received international recognition the following month on 6 April 1992.<ref>{{cite book|title=Contested lands: Israel-Palestine, Kashmir, Bosnia, Cyprus, and Sri Lanka|first=Sumantra|last=Bose|page=124|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=KKZcgOJPjVkC&pg=PA124|publisher=Harvard University Press|year=2009|isbn=9780674028562}}</ref> On the same date, the Serbs responded by declaring the independence of the [[Republika Srpska]] and [[Siege of Sarajevo|laying siege to Sarajevo]], which marked the start of the [[Bosnian War]].<ref>{{Cite book |last=Walsh |first=Martha |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ZNKlZh3FwRUC&pg=PA57 |title=Women and civil war: impact, organizations, and action |publisher=L. Rienner Publishers |year=2001 |isbn=978-1-55587-953-2 |editor-last=Kumar |editor-first=Krishna |location=Boulder |pages=57 |quote=The Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina was recognized by the European Union on 6 April. On the same date, Bosnian Serb nationalists began the siege of Sarajevo, and the Bosnian war began}}</ref> The [[Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina]] was subsequently admitted as a member state of the United Nations on 22 May 1992.<ref>{{cite book|title=Admission to the United Nations: Charter Article 4 and the Rise of Universal Organization|first=Thomas|last=D. Grant|page=226|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=5Uuv0NLNdZQC&pg=PA226|publisher=Martinus Nijhoff Publishers|year=2009|isbn=978-9004173637}}</ref>

In [[Bosnia and Herzegovina]], [[Operation Deliberate Force|NATO airstrikes against Bosnian Serb targets]] contributed to the signing of the 14 December 1995 [[Dayton Agreement]] and the resolution of the conflict. Around 100,000 people were killed over the course of the war.{{sfn|Logos|2019|p=265, 412}}

=== Macedonia ===
{{Main|1991 Macedonian independence referendum|2001 insurgency in Macedonia}}
In the [[1991 Macedonian independence referendum|Macedonian independence referendum]] held on 8 September 1991, 95.26% voted for independence, which was declared on 25 September 1991.<ref name=":0">{{Citation|last=Kasapović|first=Mirjana|title=Macedonia|date=2010|url=https://www.nomos-elibrary.de/10.5771/9783845223414-1271/macedonia|work=Elections in Europe|pages=1271–1294|publisher=Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG|doi=10.5771/9783845223414-1271|isbn=978-3-8329-5609-7|access-date=2020-10-26|url-access=subscription}}</ref>

Five hundred US soldiers were then deployed under the UN banner to monitor Macedonia's northern border with Serbia. However, Belgrade's authorities neither intervened to prevent Macedonia's departure, nor protested nor acted against the arrival of the UN troops, indicating that once Belgrade was to form its new country (the [[Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] in April 1992), it would recognise the Republic of Macedonia and develop diplomatic relations with it. As a result, Macedonia became the only former republic to gain sovereignty without resistance from the Yugoslav authorities and Army.

In addition, Macedonia's first president, [[Kiro Gligorov]], did indeed maintain good relations with Belgrade as well as the other former republics. There have been no problems between Macedonian and Serbian border police, even though small pockets of Kosovo and the [[Preševo]] valley complete the northern reaches of the historical region known as Macedonia, which would otherwise have created a border dispute (see also [[Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization|IMORO]]).

The [[insurgency in the Republic of Macedonia]], the last major conflict being between [[Albanian nationalism|Albanian nationalists]] and the government of Republic of Macedonia, reduced in violence after 2001.

== International recognition of the breakup ==
[[File:Former Yugoslavia 2008.PNG|thumb|State entities on the former territory of [[Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia|SFR Yugoslavia]], 2008.]]
While France, Britain and most other [[European Community]] member nations were still emphasizing the need to preserve the unity of Yugoslavia,<ref>{{Cite news |last=Drozdiak |first=William |date=1991-07-02 |title=Germany Criticizes European Community Policy on Yugoslavia |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1991/07/02/germany-criticizes-european-community-policy-on-yugoslavia/9c80a48a-2363-4873-a3d6-cfc5ea2b9b80/ |access-date=2022-03-05 |work=[[The Washington Post]] |language=en-US |issn=0190-8286}}</ref> the German chancellor [[Helmut Kohl]] led the charge to recognize the first two breakaway republics of Slovenia and Croatia. He lobbied both national governments and the EC to be more favourable to his policies, and also went to Belgrade to pressure the federal government not to use military action, threatening sanctions. Days before the end of the year on Christmas Eve, Germany recognized the independence of Slovenia and Croatia, "against the advice of the European Community, the UN, and US President George H W Bush".<ref>{{Cite news |date=2017-06-20 |title=Kohl's roll of the dice in 1991 helped further destabilise the Balkans |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/a0f78f22-5518-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220305014953/https://www.ft.com/content/a0f78f22-5518-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f |archive-date=5 March 2022 |url-access=subscription |url-status=bot: unknown |access-date=2022-03-05 }}</ref>

In November 1991, the [[Arbitration Commission of the Peace Conference on Yugoslavia]], led by [[Robert Badinter]], concluded at the request of [[Peter Carington, 6th Baron Carrington|Lord Carrington]] that the SFR Yugoslavia was in the process of dissolution, that the Serbian population in Croatia and Bosnia did not have a right to self-determination in the form of new states, and that the borders between the republics were to be recognized as international borders. As a result of the conflict, the [[United Nations Security Council]] unanimously adopted [[UN Security Council Resolution 721]] on 27 November 1991, which paved the way to the establishment of [[peacekeeping]] operations in Yugoslavia.<ref>{{cite web | url = http://www.nato.int/ifor/un/u911127a.htm | title = Resolution 721 | date = 25 September 1991 |location=Belgium|publisher=NATO| access-date =21 July 2006 }}</ref>

In January 1992, Croatia and Yugoslavia [[Sarajevo armistice|signed an armistice under UN supervision]], while negotiations continued between Serb and Croat leaderships over the [[partition of Bosnia and Herzegovina|partitioning of Bosnia and Herzegovina]].{{sfn|Lukic|Lynch|1996|p=210}}

On 15 January 1992, the independence of Croatia and Slovenia was recognized by the international community. Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina would later be admitted as [[member states of the United Nations]] on 22 May 1992. Macedonia was admitted as a member state of the United Nations on 8 April 1993;<ref name="Rossos A. 2008">{{Cite book|url=http://research.policyarchive.org/11853.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190128222837/http://research.policyarchive.org/11853.pdf|url-status=dead|archive-date=2019-01-28|title=Macedonia and the Macedonians: A History|publisher=Hoover Institution Press|first=Andrew|last=Rossos|author-link=Andrew Rossos|date=2008|page=271|isbn=978-0817948832|access-date=28 January 2019}}</ref> its membership approval took longer than the others due to Greek objections.<ref name="Rossos A. 2008"/>

In 1999 [[Social Democratic Party of Germany]] leader [[Oskar Lafontaine]] criticised the role played by Germany in the break up of Yugoslavia, with its early recognition of the independence of the republics, during his May Day speech.<ref>{{cite book|first=Tariq |last=Ali|title=[[Masters of the Universe? NATO's Balkan Crusade]]|publisher=Verso |year=2000|isbn=9781859842690|page=381}}</ref>

Some observers opined that the break up of the Yugoslav state violated the principles of [[Post–Cold War era|post-Cold War system]], enshrined in the [[Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe]] (CSCE/OSCE) and the [[Paris Charter|Treaty of Paris]] of 1990. Both stipulated that inter-state borders in Europe should not be changed. Some observers, such as Peter Gowan, assert that the breakup and subsequent conflict could have been prevented if western states were more assertive in enforcing internal arrangements between all parties, but ultimately "were not prepared to enforce such principles in the Yugoslav case because Germany did not want to, and the other states did not have any strategic interest in doing so."<ref>{{cite journal|first=Peter|last=Gowan |url=https://newleftreview.org/I/234/peter-gowan-the-nato-powers-and-the-balkan-tragedy |title=The NATO Powers and the Balkan Tragedy |journal=New Left Review |date=March–April 1999|issue=I/234 |pages=83–105 }}</ref> Gowan even contends that the break-up "might have been possible without great bloodshed if clear criteria could have been established for providing security for all the main groups of people within the Yugoslav space."

In March 1992, during the US-Bosnian independence campaign, the politician and future president of Bosnia and Herzegovina [[Alija Izetbegović]] reached an EC brokered agreement with Bosnian Croats and Serbs on a three-canton confederal settlement. But, the US government, according to ''[[The New York Times]]'', urged him to opt for a unitary, sovereign, independent state.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/17/world/2-leaders-propose-dividing-bosnia-into-three-areas.html|date=17 June 1993|title=Leaders propose dividing Bosnia into three areas|newspaper=The New York Times|access-date=2 March 2019}}</ref>

== Aftermath in Serbia and Montenegro ==
{{Main|Serbia and Montenegro}}
[[File:Serbia and Montenegro map from CIA World Factbook, circa 2005.png|thumb|The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia consisted of Serbia and Montenegro.]]
The independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina proved to be the final blow to the pan-Yugoslav Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. On 28 April 1992, the Serb-dominated [[Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] (FRY) was [[1992 Yugoslav Constitution|formed]] as a [[rump state]], consisting only of the former Socialist Republics of Montenegro and Serbia. The FRY was dominated by Slobodan Milošević and his political allies. Its government claimed continuity to the former country, but the international community refused to recognize it as such. The stance of the international community was that Yugoslavia had dissolved into its separate states. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was prevented by a UN resolution on 22 September 1992 from continuing to occupy the United Nations seat as [[Succession of Yugoslavia|successor state to SFRY]].

The disintegration and war led to a [[Sanctions against Yugoslavia|sanctions regime]], causing the [[economy of Serbia and Montenegro]] to collapse after five years. The war in the western parts of former Yugoslavia ended in 1995 with US-sponsored peace talks in [[Dayton, Ohio]], which resulted in the [[Dayton Agreement]]. The [[Kosovo War]] started in 1998 and ended with the [[1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia]]; Slobodan Milošević was [[Overthrow of Slobodan Milošević|overthrown]] on 5 October 2000.

The question of succession was important for claims on SFRY's international assets, including embassies in many countries. The FRY did not abandon its claim to continuity from the SFRY until 1996.{{citation needed|date=April 2019}} After the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia re-applied for [[Yugoslavia and the United Nations#Federal Republic of Yugoslavia / Serbia and Montenegro (2000–2006)|membership in the United Nations]] and was admitted on 1 November 2000 as a new member.<ref name="fr yugoslavia">{{cite news| title=A Different Yugoslavia, 8 Years Later, Takes Its Seat at the U.N.| url=https://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/02/world/a-different-yugoslavia-8-years-later-takes-its-seat-at-the-un.html| newspaper=The New York Times| date=2 November 2000}}</ref> The [[Agreement on Succession Issues of the Former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]] was then signed on 29 June 2001, leading to the sharing of international assets among the five sovereign equal successor states.

The FR Yugoslavia was reconstructed on 4 February 2003 as the [[State Union of Serbia and Montenegro]]. The State Union of Serbia and Montenegro was itself unstable, and finally broke up in 2006 when, in a [[2006 Montenegrin independence referendum|referendum]] held on 21 May 2006, Montenegrin independence was backed by 55.5% of voters, and independence was declared on 3 June 2006. Serbia inherited the State Union's UN membership.<ref>{{cite web|title=Member States of the United Nations|url=https://www.un.org/en/members/index.shtml#serbia|publisher=United Nations|access-date=19 November 2012}}</ref>

== See also ==
*[[Role of the media in the breakup of Yugoslavia]]
*[[Dissolution of Czechoslovakia]]
*[[Dissolution of the Soviet Union]]
*[[Timeline of the breakup of Yugoslavia]]

== References ==
=== Citations ===
{{Reflist}}

=== Sources ===
{{refbegin|40em}}
; Books
* {{cite book |last1=Brown |first1=Cynthia |last2=Karim |first2=Farhad |title=Playing the "Communal Card": Communal Violence and Human Rights |year=1995 |location=New York City |publisher=[[Human Rights Watch]] |isbn=978-1-56432-152-7 |url=https://archive.org/details/playingcommunalc00brow }}
* {{cite book |last=Cohen |first=Philip J. |title=Serbia's Secret War: Propaganda and the Deceit of History |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Fz1PW_wnHYMC |publisher=Texas A&M University Press |year=1996 |isbn=0-89096-760-1 }}
* {{cite book |last=Crampton |first=R.J. |year=1997 |isbn=9780521567190 |title=A Concise History of Bulgaria |publisher=Cambridge University Press}}
* {{cite book |last=Denitch |first=Bogdan Denis |title=Ethnic nationalism: The tragic death of Yugoslavia |year=1996 |location=Minneapolis |publisher=University of Minnesota Press |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=v-VWhYkECOMC |isbn=9780816629473 }}
* {{cite book |last=Djokić |first=Dejan |title=Yugoslavism: Histories of a Failed Idea, 1918-1992 |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ZMyZdvTympMC |year=2003 |publisher=C. Hurst & Co. Publishers |isbn=978-1-85065-663-0 }}
* {{cite book|last=Frucht|first=Richard C.|title=Eastern Europe: An Introduction to the People, Lands, and Culture|year=2005|publisher=ABC-CLIO|isbn=978-1-57607-800-6|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=lVBB1a0rC70C}}
* {{cite book|editor-last1=Ingrao|editor-first1=Charles|editor-last2=Emmert|editor-first2=Thomas A.|title=Confronting the Yugoslav Controversies: A Scholars' Initiative|edition=2nd|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=IDMhDgCJCe0C|year=2003|publisher=Purdue University Press|isbn=978-1-55753-617-4}}
* {{cite book|last=Jović|first=Dejan|title=Yugoslavia: A State that Withered Away|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Po03enYpbqsC|year=2009|publisher=Purdue University Press|isbn=978-1-55753-495-8}}
* {{Cite book|last=Logos|first=Aleksandar|title=Istorija Srba 1, Dopuna 4; Istorija Srba 5|url=https://www.academia.edu/42147440|year=2019|location=Beograd|isbn=978-86-85117-46-6}}
* {{cite book|last1=Lukic|first1=Reneo|last2=Lynch|first2=Allen|year=1996|title=Europe from the Balkans to the Urals: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union|location=Oxford|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=0-19-829200-7}}
* {{cite book|last=Mesić|first=Stjepan|author-link=Stjepan Mesić|title=The Demise of Yugoslavia: A Political Memoir|year=2004|publisher=Central European University Press|isbn=978-963-9241-81-7|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=mButzsYUurkC}}
* {{cite book|last=Ramet|first=Sabrina P.|title=The Three Yugoslavias: State-building and Legitimation, 1918-2005|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=FTw3lEqi2-oC|year=2006|publisher=Indiana University Press|isbn=0-253-34656-8}}
* {{cite book|last=Rogel|first=Carole|title=The Breakup of Yugoslavia and Its Aftermath|publisher=Greenwood Publishing Group|year=2004|isbn=0-313-32357-7|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=vsy5IAsKJsYC|access-date=22 April 2012}}
* {{cite book|last=Trbovich|first=Ana S.|title=A Legal Geography of Yugoslavia's Disintegration|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Ojur7dVoxIcC|year=2008|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=978-0-19-533343-5}}
* {{cite book|last=Wachtel|first=Andrew|title=Making a Nation, Breaking a Nation: Literature and Cultural Politics in Yugoslavia|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=cnISZNM6X6EC|year=1998|publisher=Stanford University Press|isbn=978-0-8047-3181-2}}
* {{cite book |last=Žerjavić |first=Vladimir |title=Yugoslavia: Manipulations with the Number of Second World War Victims |publisher=Croatian Information Centre |isbn=0-919817-32-7 |url=http://www.hic.hr/books/manipulations/index.htm |year=1993 |access-date=1 September 2022 |archive-date=3 March 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160303230428/http://www.hic.hr/books/manipulations/index.htm |url-status=dead }}
{{refend}}

== Further reading ==
{{refbegin|40em}}
* {{Cite book |last=Allcock |first=John B. |url=https://archive.org/details/conflictinformer0000unse_k8x1 |title=Conflict in the former Yugoslavia: an encyclopedia |last2=Milivojević |first2=Marko |last3=Horton |first3=John J. |date=1998 |publisher=[[ABC-CLIO]] |isbn=978-0-87436-935-9 |series=Roots of modern conflict |location=Denver, Colo.}}
* {{Cite book |last=Almond |first=Mark |author-link=Mark Almond |title=Europe's backyard war: the war in the Balkans |date=1994 |publisher=[[Heinemann (publisher)|Heinemann]] |isbn=978-0-434-00003-6 |location=London}}
* {{Cite book |last=Duncan |first=Walter Raymond |title=Ethnic nationalism and regional conflict: the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia |last2=Holman |first2=G. Paul |date=1994 |publisher=[[Westview Press]] |isbn=978-0-8133-8813-7 |location=Boulder San Francisco Oxford}}
* {{Cite book |last=Glenny |first=Misha |author-link=Misha Glenny |title=The fall of Yugoslavia: the third Balkan war |date=1996 |publisher=[[Penguin Books]] |isbn=978-0-14-026101-1 |edition=3. |location=London}}
* {{Cite book |last=LeBor |first=Adam |author-link=Adam LeBor |title=Milosevic: a biography |date=2003 |publisher=[[Bloomsbury Publishing]] |isbn=978-0-7475-6181-1 |location=London}}
* {{Cite book |last=Magaš |first=Branka |title=The destruction of Yugoslavia: tracking the break-up 1980-92 |date=1993 |publisher=New York Verso |isbn=978-0-86091-593-5 |location=London, GB}}
* {{Cite book |last=Mojzes |first=Paul |title=Yugoslavian inferno: ethnoreligious warfare in the Balkans |date=1994 |publisher=[[Continuum Publishers]] |isbn=978-0-8264-0683-5 |location=New York}}
* {{Cite book |last=Radan |first=Peter |title=The break-up of Yugoslavia and international law |date=2002 |publisher=[[Routledge]] |isbn=978-0-415-25352-9 |series=Routledge studies in international law |location=London; New York}}
* {{Cite book |last=Woodward |first=Susan L. |url=https://archive.org/details/balkantragedycha00wood |title=Balkan tragedy: chaos and dissolution after the Cold War |last2=Brookings Institution |date=1995 |publisher=[[Brookings Institution]] |isbn=978-0-8157-9514-8 |location=Washington, DC}}
{{refend}}

== External links ==
{{Commons category|Maps of the Breakup of Yugoslavia}}
* [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552526 Video on the Conflict in the Former Yugoslavia] from the [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552494 Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives]

{{Clear}}
{{Breakup of Yugoslavia}}
{{Yugoslavia topics}}
{{Cold War}}
{{Fall of Communism}}
{{Yugoslavia timeline}}
{{Authority control}}

[[Category:Breakup of Yugoslavia| ]]
[[Category:Partition (politics)]]