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{{Short description|Person or group which indicates trends}}
{{About|the concept of a trend indicator}}

A '''bellwether''' is a [[leader]] or an indicator of trends.<ref name=":0">"[https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/bellwether bellwether]." ''Cambridge Dictionary''. Retrieved 2022-01-22.</ref>

In [[politics]], the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in [[Macrocosm and microcosm|microcosm]] those of a wider area, such that the result of an [[election]] in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In [[economics]], a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an [[Economic indicator|economic trend]].<ref name=":0"/><ref name=":1">{{Cite web|title=Bellwether|url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bellwether.asp|access-date=2022-01-22|website=Investopedia|language=en}}</ref>

[[sociology|Sociologists]] apply the term in the [[Active participle|active sense]] to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set [[Fads and trends|trends]].

== Etymology ==
[[File:Sonnaille.JPG|thumb|upright|A bellwether sheep, with a bell around its neck]]
The term derives from the [[Middle English]] ''belle-weder'', which referred to the practice of placing a [[Cowbell|bell]] around the neck of the lead ''wether'' (the castrated male sheep). A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight.<ref name=":2">{{Cite web|title=Definition of BELLWETHER|url=https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bellwether|access-date=2022-01-22|website=www.merriam-webster.com|language=en}}</ref>

The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century.<ref name=":2"/>

== {{Anchor|Stock market|Economics}}In economics ==
In the world of [[economics]] and [[finance]], a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an [[Economic indicator|economic trend]].<ref name=":0"/><ref name=":1"/>

In the [[stock market]], a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides. [[JPMorgan Chase]] is a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of the banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. [[Tata Consultancy Services]] is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, [[Bombay Stock Exchange|BSE]] and [[National Stock Exchange of India|NSE]].<ref name=":1"/>

Similarly, a '''bellwether bond''' is "a [[government bond]] whose changes in [[interest rate]] are believed to show the future direction of the rest of the [[bond market]]."<ref>"[https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/bellwether-bond bellwether bond]." ''Cambridge Dictionary''. Retrieved 2022-01-22.</ref>

The quarterly ''Bellwether Report'', published by the [[Institute of Practitioners in Advertising]] (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry.

== In law ==
{{Main|Bellwether trial}}

== {{Anchor|Politics}}In politics ==
{{Overly detailed|details=|date=January 2022|section}}[[File:France bellwethers.svg|thumb|Map highlighting in red five bellwethers who since 1965 have voted for the winning candidate in the second round of presidential elections in Metropolitan France. [[Loire (department)|Loire]], in the south-east is the most populous, close to Lyon.]]In [[politics]], the term ''bellwether'' often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in [[Macrocosm and microcosm|microcosm]] those of a wider area, such that the result of an [[election]] in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a [[Westminster System|Westminster]]-style election, for example, a [[constituency]], the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a [[Representative democracy|popular vote]] that mirrors the result on a national scale.

An '''electoral bellwether''' can be a [[Ward (electoral subdivision)|ward]], [[Electoral precinct|precinct]], [[town]], [[County (United States)|county]], or other [[district]] that accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change every [[election cycle]] due to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: a [[Midterm election|midterm]] bellwether differs from a [[Presidential election|presidential]] bellwether or a [[party primary]] bellwether.<ref>{{Cite web|title=The Bellwether Model - Suffolk University|url=https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/about-us/the-bellwether-model|access-date=2022-01-22|website=www.suffolk.edu|language=en}}</ref><ref name=":3">{{Cite news|last=Berkes|first=Howard|date=2008-10-24|title=What Is An Election Bellwether?|language=en|work=NPR|url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96116110|access-date=2022-01-22}}</ref>

American statistician and political scientist [[Edward Tufte]] and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in the US) into the following categories:<ref name=":3"/>

* All-Or-Nothing Bellwether — states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Examples include the counties of [[Vigo County, Indiana|Vigo County, IN]]; [[Lincoln County, Montana|Lincoln County, MT]]; [[Van Buren County, Arkansas|Van Buren County, AR]]; [[Logan County, Arkansas|Logan County, AR]]; [[Eddy County, New Mexico|Eddy County, NM]]; and [[Ferry County, Washington|Ferry County, WA]].
* Barometric Bellwether — a place that accurately reflects the national share of votes. Vigo County, Indiana, is one example.
* Swingometric Bellwether — a county that mirrors important [[Swing state|swings]] or shifts in the national electorate. Examples include [[Sandoval County, New Mexico|Sandoval County, NM]], and [[Washoe County, Nevada|Washoe County, NV]].

===Australia===
In [[Australia]]n federal elections, the [[Division of Robertson]] in [[New South Wales]] became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the [[1983 Australian federal election|1983 federal election]].

Previously, the electoral [[division of Eden-Monaro]] elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from [[1972 Australian federal election|1972]] until [[2016 Australian federal election|2016]], when the record was broken after [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]] won the seat, while the [[Coalition (Australia)|Coalition]] won government. The [[Division of Lindsay]] in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 federal election]], both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.

The [[Division of Makin]] in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, [[Division of Eden-Monaro|Eden-Monaro]], [[Division of Lindsay|Lindsay]], [[Division of Robertson|Robertson]] and [[Division of Makin|Makin]] have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the [[1998 Australian federal election|1998 federal election]]. In purely statistical terms, the state of [[New South Wales]], which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the [[2016 Australian federal election|2016 federal election]] the party which wins government has won the majority of [[Australian House of Representatives|House of Representatives]] seats in that state at every election since [[1963 Australian federal election|1963]]. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

==== List of electorates described as bellwethers ====
Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the [[two-party-preferred vote]].

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center"
! rowspan="7" | Electorate
! rowspan="7" | State/territory
! colspan="10" | Winning party
|-
! colspan="10" | Government elected
|-
! [[1998 Australian federal election|1998]]
! [[2001 Australian federal election|2001]]
! [[2004 Australian federal election|2004]]
! [[2007 Australian federal election|2007]]
! [[2010 Australian federal election|2010]]
! [[2013 Australian federal election|2013]]
! [[2016 Australian federal election|2016]]
! [[2019 Australian federal election|2019]]
! [[2022 Australian federal election|2022]]
! [[2025 Australian federal election|2025]]
|-
! colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Coalition (Australia)|Lib/Nat Coalition]]
! colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
! colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Coalition (Australia)|Lib/Nat Coalition]]
! colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.98%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.03%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.79%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.70%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.12%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.49%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.36%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.53%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.13%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.83%
|-
! colspan="10" | Seat winner
|-
! [[1998 Australian federal election|1998]]
! [[2001 Australian federal election|2001]]
! [[2004 Australian federal election|2004]]
! [[2007 Australian federal election|2007]]
! [[2010 Australian federal election|2010]]
! [[2013 Australian federal election|2013]]
! [[2016 Australian federal election|2016]]
! [[2019 Australian federal election|2019]]
! [[2022 Australian federal election|2022]]
! [[2025 Australian federal election|2025]]
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Bass|Bass]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Tasmania|TAS]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.06%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.06%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.63%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.00%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.74%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 54.04%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.09%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.41%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.43%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.92%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Braddon|Braddon]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Tasmania|TAS]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.33%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.96%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.13%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.44%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.48%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.56%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.20%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.09%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 58.03%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.24%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Chisholm|Chisholm]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Victoria (state)|VIC]]
| colspan="6" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.07%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.77%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.65%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.38%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.11%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.60%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.24%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.57%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.41%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.76%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Corangamite|Corangamite]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Victoria (state)|VIC]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 54.50%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.67%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.32%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.85%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.41%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.94%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.13%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.07%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.60%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 58.10%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Dobell|Dobell]]
| rowspan="2" | [[New South Wales|NSW]]
| colspan="1" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.35%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.38%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.90%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.90%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.07%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.68%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.81%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.50%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.52%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 59.28%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Eden-Monaro|Eden-Monaro]]
| rowspan="2" | [[New South Wales|NSW]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.18%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.69%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.14%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.40%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.24%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.61%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.93%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.85%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 58.20%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.35%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Forde|Forde]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Queensland|QLD]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="5" {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal National]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.25%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 57.38%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 62.98%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.91%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 51.63%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 54.38%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 50.63%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 58.60%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 54.23%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.78%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Hasluck|Hasluck]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Western Australia|WA]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" {{N/A|''Did not exist''}}
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.78%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.82%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.26%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.57%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 54.87%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.05%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.21%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.00%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 66.29%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Leichhardt|Leichhardt]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Queensland|QLD]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="5" {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal National]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 54.05%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 56.39%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 60.00%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.01%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 54.55%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 55.68%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 53.95%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 54.17%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 53.44%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.09%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Lindsay|Lindsay]]
| rowspan="2" | [[New South Wales|NSW]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.28%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.47%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.26%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.78%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.12%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.99%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.11%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 55.04%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 56.34%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.08%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Longman|Longman]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Queensland|QLD]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal National]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal National]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.92%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.72%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 57.66%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.57%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 51.92%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 56.92%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.79%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 53.28%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 53.03%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 50.13%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Lyons|Lyons]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Tasmania|TAS]]
| colspan="5" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 60.61%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 58.17%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.68%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 58.78%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 62.29%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.22%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.31%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.18%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.92%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 61.51%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Makin|Makin]]
| rowspan="2" | [[South Australia|SA]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="7" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.94%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.76%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.93%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.70%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 62.20%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.06%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 59.65%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 59.72%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 60.80%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 64.87%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of McEwen|McEwen]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Victoria (state)|VIC]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="6" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.04%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.20%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 56.42%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.01%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.32%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.15%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 57.85%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 55.02%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.28%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.65%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Page|Page]]
| rowspan="2" | [[New South Wales|NSW]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/National}}| [[National Party of Australia|National]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="5" {{Australian party shading/National}}| [[National Party of Australia|National]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 52.36%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 52.77%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 54.23%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.36% 
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 54.19%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 52.52%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 52.30%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 59.45%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 60.74%
| {{Australian party shading/National}}| 59.31%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Petrie|Petrie]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Queensland|QLD]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal National]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 50.75%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.42%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 57.92%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.02%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.51%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 50.53%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 51.65%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 58.40%
| {{Australian party shading/LNP}}| 54.44%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.09%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Robertson|Robertson]]
| rowspan="2" | [[New South Wales|NSW]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="3" {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 52.01%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 56.98%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 56.81%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.11%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.00%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 53.00%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 51.14%
| {{Australian party shading/Liberal}}| 54.24%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 52.26%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 59.18%
|-
| rowspan="2" | [[Division of Solomon|Solomon]]
| rowspan="2" | [[Northern Territory|NT]]
| colspan="1" rowspan="2" {{N/A|''Did not exist''}}
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/CLP}}| [[Country Liberal Party|Country Liberal]]
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
| colspan="2" {{Australian party shading/CLP}}| [[Country Liberal Party|Country Liberal]]
| colspan="4" {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| [[Australian Labor Party|Labor]]
|-
| {{Australian party shading/CLP}}| 50.09%
| {{Australian party shading/CLP}}| 52.81%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 50.19%
| {{Australian party shading/CLP}}| 51.75%
| {{Australian party shading/CLP}}| 51.40%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 56.00%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 53.08%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 59.37%
| {{Australian party shading/Labor}}| 51.27%
|}

===Canada===
In the [[Provinces and territories of Canada|Canadian province]] of [[Ontario]], [[Sarnia—Lambton (federal electoral district)|Sarnia—Lambton]] (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from [[1963 Canadian federal election|1963]] until [[2011 Canadian federal election|2011]]. This streak was broken in [[2015 Canadian federal election|2015]], when the [[Conservative Party of Canada|Conservative Party]] held the district while the [[Liberal Party of Canada|Liberal Party]] won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since. [[Toronto—St. Paul's (federal electoral district)|Toronto—St. Paul's]] has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in [[1935 Canadian federal election|1935]], although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. [[Burlington (federal electoral district)|Burlington]] and [[St. Catharines (federal electoral district)|St. Catharines]] currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since [[1984 Canadian federal election|1984]]. Also in Ontario, [[Peterborough—Kawartha (provincial electoral district)|Peterborough—Kawartha]] (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since [[1977 Ontario general election|1977]]. In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district [[Peterborough—Kawartha]] (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from [[1965 Canadian federal election|1965]] to [[1979 Canadian federal election|1979]] and 1984 until [[2021 Canadian federal election|2021]], inclusive.

In [[Alberta]], the provincial electoral district [[Peace River (provincial electoral district)|Peace River]] has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

In [[Manitoba]], the federal district of [[Winnipeg South]] has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in [[1988 Canadian federal election|1988]]; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from [[1917 Canadian federal election|1917]] until [[1974 Canadian federal election|1974]] inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in [[1965 Canadian federal election|1965]]. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding of [[Rossmere]], which has existed since [[1969 Manitoba general election|1969]], has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of [[1977 Manitoba general election|1977]]; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993.

===Germany===
Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then [[West Germany]]) in 1949, the state where the leading [[party list]] vote (''[[German election system#Second vote|Zweitstimmen]]'') matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is [[Schleswig-Holstein]] (with two misses: [[1969 West German federal election|1969]] and [[2005 German federal election|2005]]), followed by the state of [[Lower Saxony]] (with misses in [[1949 West German federal election|1949]], 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being [[Kiel]] and [[Hannover]] respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which [[Gerhard Schröder]] was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won).

Of the first vote constituencies (''Erststimmen''), the constituency of [[Pinneberg (electoral district)|Pinneberg]] (also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2021-09-24 |title=Germany's electoral oracle struggles to divine the post-Merkel future |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/a91f3a3a-6741-4339-aeb8-580bcab61726 |access-date=2023-02-11}}</ref>

Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the [[2021 German federal election]] the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former [[First Mayor of Hamburg]], [[Olaf Scholz]], the State of [[Hamburg]] borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District [[Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II]] in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran against [[Annalena Baerbock]] candidate for chancellor of [[Alliance 90/The Greens]], drawing additional media attention to the District).

===India===
Two individual seats, [[Valsad (Lok Sabha constituency)|Valsad]] and [[West Delhi (Lok Sabha constituency)|West Delhi]], have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven [[General elections in india|general elections in India]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/politics/lok-sabha-polls-indias-bellwether-constituencies-3753271.html|title=Lok Sabha polls: A look at India's bellwether seats — whoever wins these, wins the election|website=Moneycontrol}}</ref> Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in [[List of constituencies of the Lok Sabha#Delhi (7)|Delhi]] has always gone on to form the national government since 1998.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha-2019/story/7-lok-sabha-seats-delhi-decides-pm-1522299-2019-05-11|title=With just 7 Lok Sabha seats, Delhi decides who becomes PM|last1=Prabhash K. Dutta New|date=May 11, 2019|website=India Today}}</ref>

The state of [[List of constituencies of the Lok Sabha#Uttar Pradesh (80)|Uttar Pradesh]] is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/will-uttar-pradesh-be-bellwether-or-exception-again-119052000542_1.html|title=Will Uttar Pradesh be 'bellwether' or exception again?|newspaper=Business Standard India|date=May 20, 2019|via=Business Standard}}</ref>

===Ireland===
Ireland has a [[proportional representation]] electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the [[single transferable vote]]. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the [[1981 Irish general election|1981 general election]] and [[2011 Irish general election|2011 general election]], [[Meath (Dáil constituency)|Meath]] and its successors, [[Meath East (Dáil constituency)|Meath East]] and [[Meath West (Dáil constituency)|Meath West]], have elected a majority of [[Fianna Fáil]] [[Teachta Dála|TD]]s in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of [[Fine Gael]] and [[Labour Party (Ireland)|Labour]] TDs when those parties formed the government.

===New Zealand===
In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: [[Hamilton East (New Zealand electorate)|Hamilton East]] and [[Hamilton West (New Zealand electorate)|Hamilton West]], both based around the city of [[Hamilton, New Zealand|Hamilton]],<ref name="NZ_Herald_10537120">{{cite web |url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10537120 |title=Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat |author=Ihaka, James |date=13 October 2008 |work=[[The New Zealand Herald]] |access-date=19 September 2011}}</ref> and [[Northcote (New Zealand electorate)|Northcote]] on [[Auckland]]'s North Shore.<ref name="NZ_Herald_10530924">{{cite web |url=http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10530924 |title=Street shows swing voters |author=Shepheard, Nicola |date=7 September 2008 |work=[[The New Zealand Herald]] |access-date=19 September 2011}}</ref> Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively&nbsp;— the {{NZ election link|1993}} for Hamilton West and the {{NZ election link|2005}} for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections&nbsp;— 1993, [[1999 New Zealand general election|1999]], and 2005. They were all held by the [[New Zealand National Party|National Party]] in [[2017 New Zealand general election|the 2017 election]] although [[New Zealand Labour Party|Labour]] formed the government after the election. Since the [[New Zealand National Party|National Party]] was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.

===Philippines===
In the Philippines, the winner of the [[Philippine presidential election]] has won in [[Negros Oriental]] in all instances since [[1935 Philippine presidential election|1935]] except for [[1961 Philippine presidential election|1961]] and [[2016 Philippine presidential election|2016]], and in [[Basilan]] since its creation in December 1973 (first election in [[1981 Philippine presidential election and referendum|1981]]). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, [[Agusan del Norte]] and [[Lanao del Sur]] then had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the [[1969 Philippine presidential election|1969 election]]. Lanao del Sur then voted for the loser in 2022, giving Agusan del Norte the longest streak.

For vice presidential elections, [[Pangasinan]] has voted for the winner in all elections save for [[1986 Philippine presidential election|1986]] and [[2016 Philippine presidential election|2016]].

===Portugal===
In every general election to the [[Assembly of the Republic (Portugal)|Portuguese National Assembly]] since the [[Portuguese transition to democracy|restoration of democracy]] in 1975, the electoral district of [[Braga District|Braga]] has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the [[2015 Portuguese legislative election|elections of 2015]], a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

In every general, [[European Union]], mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since the [[Carnation Revolution]], the Portuguese capital of [[Lisbon]] voted for the party or coalition that won the highest percentage in the elections.

===Romania===
'''Presidential elections'''

The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:
* [[Bucharest]] - 1 miss ([[2014 Romanian presidential election|2014]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
* [[Constanța County|Constanța]] - 1 miss ([[2014 Romanian presidential election|2014]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
* [[Alba County|Alba]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Arad County|Arad]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Bihor County|Bihor]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Brașov County|Brașov]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Cluj County|Cluj]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Sibiu County|Sibiu]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Timiș County|Timiș]] - 2 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]] and [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* [[Prahova County|Prahova]] - 2 misses ([[1996 Romanian general election|1996]] and [[2014 Romanian presidential election|2014]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8).
* [[Ilfov County|Ilfov]] - 2 misses ([[2004 Romanian general election|2004]] and [[2014 Romanian presidential election|2014]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (75%, 6/8).
* [[Bistrița-Năsăud County|Bistrița-Năsăud]] - 3 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]], [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]] and [[2004 Romanian general election|2004]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (63%, 5/8).
* [[Satu Mare County|Satu Mare]] - 3 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]], [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]] and [[2004 Romanian general election|2004]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (63%, 5/8).
* [[Sălaj County|Sălaj]] - 3 misses ([[1992 Romanian general election|1992]], [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]] and [[2004 Romanian general election|2004]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (63%, 5/8).
* [[Maramureș County|Maramureș]] - 3 misses ([[1996 Romanian general election|1996]], [[2000 Romanian general election|2000]] and [[2004 Romanian general election|2004]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (63%, 5/8).
* [[Suceava County|Suceava]] - 3 misses ([[1996 Romanian general election|1996]], [[2004 Romanian general election|2004]] and [[2014 Romanian presidential election|2014]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (63%, 5/8).
* [[Caraș-Severin County|Caraș-Severin]] - 3 misses ([[2000 Romanian general election|2000]], [[2004 Romanian general election|2004]] and [[2014 Romanian presidential election|2014]]), from [[1990 Romanian general election|1990]] on (63%, 5/8).

===Sweden===
The expression "{{Langx|sv|Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige|label=none}}" ('As [[Ljungby]] votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results in [[Karlstad]], [[Kalmar]], and [[Halmstad]] more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the [[Riksdag]].<ref name="scb-20060306">"[http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/Demokrati/Allmanna-val/Allmanna-val-valresultat/12268/12275/Behallare-for-Press/161361/ Som Karlstad röstar, röstar Sverige] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170326211930/http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/Demokrati/Allmanna-val/Allmanna-val-valresultat/12268/12275/Behallare-for-Press/161361/ |date=2017-03-26 }}", [[Statistiska Centralbyrån]], 6 March 2006.</ref> While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by [[2022 Swedish general election|2022]] this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://valresultat.svt.se/2022/riksdagsval-0781-ljungby.html|title=Valresultat 2022 för Ljungby i riksdagsvalet|language=sv|publisher=[[Sveriges Television|SVT]]|date=11 September 2022|access-date=26 January 2024}}</ref>

According to [[Statistics Sweden]], election results in [[Karlstad]] were the closest to the national results for three consecutive elections around the turn of the 21st century, a fact often highlighted by media through [[Gallup Poll]]s showing voting intentions in the area.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.fof.se/tidning/2006/6/karlstad-rostar-som-sverige |title=Karlstad röstar som Sverige &#124; Forskning & Framsteg &#124; Populärvetenskapligt magasin |date=September 2006 |publisher=Fof.se |access-date=2012-03-24}}</ref><ref name="scb-20060306"/> Karlstad swung to the left in the 2010s and by 2022 was seven points to the left of Sweden.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://valresultat.svt.se/2022/riksdagsval-1780-karlstad.html|title=Valresultat 2022 för Karlstad i riksdagsvalet|language=sv|publisher=[[Sveriges Television|SVT]]|date=11 September 2022|access-date=26 January 2024}}</ref> Therefore, Karlstad is no longer a proper bellwether town.

By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to the left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 included [[Alingsås Municipality|Alingsås]], [[Borlänge Municipality|Borlänge]], [[Gävle Municipality|Gävle]] and [[Karlskoga Municipality|Karlskoga]]. These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://valresultat.svt.se/2022/index.html|title=Valresultat 2022 - för riksdagsvalet, region- och kommunval|publisher=[[Sveriges Television|SVT]]|language=sv|date=11 September 2022|access-date=26 January 2024}}</ref> In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results.

===United Kingdom===
[[United Kingdom constituencies]] of the [[House of Commons of the United Kingdom|House of Commons]] all see a change at least every few decades to avoid [[malapportionment]], apart from a few island seats. It is possible to dispute any long-term bellwether, citing such changes. However, those below have kept the bulk of their electors in the main, named constituency identified with the place they are named after.

'''Long-running bellwether constituencies'''
* [[Dartford (UK Parliament constituency)|Dartford]] has reflected the overall result at every [[general election]] since [[1964 United Kingdom general election|1964]]. 
* [[Hertford and Stevenage (UK Parliament constituency)|Hertford and Stevenage]]/[[Stevenage (UK Parliament constituency)|Stevenage]], [[Loughborough (UK Parliament constituency)|Loughborough]], [[Northampton North (UK Parliament constituency)|Northampton North]], [[Portsmouth North (UK Parliament constituency)|Portsmouth North]] and [[Watford (UK Parliament constituency)|Watford]] have reflected every result since the [[February 1974 United Kingdom general election|February 1974 election]].
* [[Rochester and Chatham (UK Parliament constituency)|Rochester and Chatham]]/[[Medway (UK Parliament constituency)|Medway]]/[[Rochester and Strood (UK Parliament constituency)|Rochester and Strood]] has reflected the overall result in every [[general election]] since [[October 1974 United Kingdom general election|October 1974]]. 
* [[Blackpool North (UK Parliament constituency)|Blackpool North]]/[[Blackpool North and Fleetwood (UK Parliament constituency)|Blackpool North and Fleetwood]]/[[Blackpool North and Cleveleys (UK Parliament constituency)|Blackpool North and Cleveleys]], [[Burton and Uttoxeter (UK Parliament constituency)|Burton/Burton and Uttoxeter]], [[Dover and Deal (UK Parliament constituency)|Dover/Dover and Deal]], [[Faversham (UK Parliament constituency)|Faversham]]/[[Sittingbourne and Sheppey (UK Parliament constituency)|Sittingbourne and Sheppey]], [[Finchley (UK Parliament constituency)|Finchley]]/[[Finchley and Golders Green (UK Parliament constituency)|Finchley and Golders Green]], [[Gillingham (UK Parliament constituency)|Gillingham]]/[[Gillingham and Rainham (UK Parliament constituency)|Gillingham and Rainham]], [[Gloucester (UK Parliament constituency)|Gloucester]], [[Lowestoft (UK Parliament constituency)|Lowestoft]]/[[Waveney (UK Parliament constituency)|Waveney]], [[Stourbridge (UK Parliament constituency)|Stourbridge]], [[Hendon (UK Parliament constituency)|Hendon]], [[Stafford and Stone (UK Parliament constituency)|Stafford and Stone]]/[[Stafford (UK Parliament constituency)|Stafford]] and [[Worcester (UK Parliament constituency)|Worcester]] have all reflected the overall result in every [[general election]] since [[1979 United Kingdom general election|1979]]. 
* [[Amber Valley (UK Parliament constituency)|Amber Valley]], [[Broxtowe (UK Parliament constituency)|Broxtowe]], [[Calder Valley (UK Parliament constituency)|Calder Valley]], [[Corby (UK Parliament constituency)|Corby]], [[Erewash (UK Parliament constituency)|Erewash]], [[Harlow (UK Parliament constituency)|Harlow]], [[Hastings and Rye (UK Parliament constituency)|Hastings and Rye]], [[Norwich North (UK Parliament constituency)|Norwich North]], [[Reading West (UK Parliament constituency)|Reading West]], [[South Derbyshire (UK Parliament constituency)|South Derbyshire]] and [[South Ribble (UK Parliament constituency)|South Ribble]] constituencies have reflected every result since [[1983 United Kingdom general election|1983]].
* [[Cannock Chase (UK Parliament constituency)|Cannock Chase]], [[Chatham and Aylesford (UK Parliament constituency)|Chatham and Aylesford]], [[Redditch (UK Parliament constituency)|Redditch]], [[North Warwickshire (UK Parliament constituency)|North Warwickshire]]/[[North Warwickshire and Bedworth (UK Parliament constituency)|North Warwickshire and Bedworth]], [[Nuneaton (UK Parliament constituency)|Nuneaton]],<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nuneaton-idUKKCN0ZA06A|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160625131450/http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nuneaton-idUKKCN0ZA06A|url-status=dead|archive-date=June 25, 2016|title=Parliamentary bellwether Nuneaton votes strongly for Leave|agency=Reuters (editorial)|date=24 June 2016|language=en-GB|access-date=2016-09-17}}</ref> [[Tamworth (UK Parliament constituency)|Tamworth]], and [[Thurrock (UK Parliament constituency)|Thurrock]] have reflected the overall result in every [[general election]] since [[1997 United Kingdom general election|1997]].

'''Former bellwether constituencies'''
* [[Gravesham (UK Parliament constituency)|Gravesham]] (and its predecessor [[Gravesend (UK Parliament constituency)|Gravesend]]) reflected the overall result from [[1955 United Kingdom general election|1955]] with the only exception being the [[2005 United Kingdom general election|2005]] general election.
* [[Lincoln (UK Parliament constituency)|Lincoln]] has reflected the result since the [[October 1974 United Kingdom general election|October 1974 election]] with the only exception being [[2017 United Kingdom general election|2017]].
* [[Bristol North West (UK Parliament constituency)|Bristol North West]] reflected every result since the [[October 1974 United Kingdom general election|October 1974 election]] until [[2017 United Kingdom general election|2017]].
* [[Brentford and Isleworth (UK Parliament constituency)|Brentford and Isleworth]] had reflected the overall result from [[1979 United Kingdom general election|1979]] until [[2015 United Kingdom general election|2015]].
* [[Rossendale and Darwen (UK Parliament constituency)|Rossendale and Darwen]] has been a bellwether since 1983, with one exception in the 1992 General Election, electing Labour MP [[Janet Anderson]] whilst the country elected a [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative]] government.
* [[Bury North (UK Parliament constituency)|Bury North]] has reflected the overall result from [[1983 United Kingdom general election|1983]], with the only exception being [[2017 United Kingdom general election|2017]].
* [[Basildon (UK Parliament constituency)|Basildon]] reflected every result from its creation in 1974 to its abolition in 2010.
* [[Pudsey (UK Parliament constituency)|Pudsey]] reflected the overall result in every [[general election]] since [[1979 United Kingdom general election|1979]] until its abolition in 2024. 
* [[Southampton Test (UK Parliament constituency)|Southampton Test]] reflected every result from 1966 to 2010.
* [[Luton South and South Bedfordshire (UK Parliament constituency)|Luton South]] (and its predecessors [[Luton East (UK Parliament constituency)|Luton East]] and [[Luton (UK Parliament constituency)|Luton]]) had reflected the overall result from [[1951 United Kingdom general election|1951]] until [[2010 United Kingdom general election|2010]].
* [[Keighley and Ilkley (UK Parliament constituency)|Keighley/Keighley and Ilkley]] has previously been a bellwether since 1959, with three exceptions: in 1979 and 2017, when the seat leaned to the left but the Tories formed a government; and in [[2024 United Kingdom general election|2024]], when the Conservative candidate held the seat amidst a Labour landslide victory.
* [[Staffordshire Moorlands (UK Parliament constituency)|Staffordshire Moorlands]] reflected the national result from its creation in 1983 until it elected a Conservative MP amidst a Labour landslide in 2024.

While not strictly a bellwether, [[Sunderland South (UK Parliament constituency)|Sunderland South]] (Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy.

====London Borough elections====
Since Greater London formed during 1964&ndash;1965, [[Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council]] elections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly) the most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two results no overall control was the local result.

====Scottish Parliament====
The [[Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions from 2011|constituencies]] of [[Cunninghame North (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Cunninghame North]], [[Stirling (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Stirling]] and [[Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Na h-Eileanan an Iar]] have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every [[Scottish Parliament#Elections|Scottish Parliament election]].

Also, the constituencies of [[Almond Valley (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Almond Valley]], [[Dundee City West (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Dundee City West]], [[Edinburgh Eastern (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Edinburgh Eastern]], [[Glasgow Southside (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Glasgow Southside]], [[Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley]] and [[Mid Fife and Glenrothes (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Mid Fife and Glenrothes]] each elected an MSP from the largest party in the [[2011 Scottish Parliament election|2011]] and [[2016 Scottish Parliament election|2016]] elections. This continues the trend that their [[Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions 1999 to 2011|predecessor constituencies]] ([[Livingston (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Livingston]], [[Dundee West (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Dundee West]], [[Edinburgh East and Musselburgh (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Edinburgh East & Musselburgh]], [[Glasgow Govan (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Glasgow Govan]], [[Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Kilmarnock & Loudoun]] and [[Central Fife (Scottish Parliament constituency)|Fife Central]]) achieved in the [[1999 Scottish Parliament election|1999]], [[2003 Scottish Parliament election|2003]] and [[2007 Scottish Parliament election|2007]] elections.

===United States===
{{for|a list of bellwether counties|List of election bellwether counties in the United States}}The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are [[Michigan]], [[Pennsylvania]], and [[Wisconsin]]; their streaks date back to 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

'''Highest percentage for varying lengths of time'''

* [[Nevada]] – 2 misses ([[1976 United States presidential election|1976]], [[2016 United States presidential election|2016]]) from [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] on (93.1%, evenly wrong).
* [[Ohio]] – 3 misses ([[1944 United States presidential election|1944]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]]) from [[1896 United States presidential election|1896]] on (90.9%, slightly "too Republican").
* [[Florida]] – 3 misses ([[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1992 United States presidential election|1992]], [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]]) from [[1928 United States presidential election|1928]] on (88.0%, slightly "too Republican").
'''Highest percentage for a set length of time'''

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2024:<ref>{{cite book|page=22|title=The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President|author=Kondik, Kyle|year=2016|publisher=Ohio University Press|quote=Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election.}}</ref>
* Ohio – 30 wins out of 33 elections (90.9%)
* [[New Mexico]] – 25 wins out of 29 elections (86.2%)
* Nevada – 28 wins out of 33 elections (84.8%)

'''Highest percentage of the [[Sixth Party System|current party system]], 1980-2024'''

* [[Ohio]] – 1 miss ([[2020 United States presidential election|2020]]) (91.7%)
* [[Nevada]] – 1 miss ([[2016 United States presidential election|2016]]) (91.7%)
* [[Florida]] – 2 misses ([[1992 United States presidential election|1992]], [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]]) (83.3%)
* [[Michigan]] – 2 misses ([[2000 United States presidential election|2000]], [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]]) (83.3%)
* [[Pennsylvania]] – 2 misses ([[2000 United States presidential election|2000]], [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]]) (83.3%)

'''Smallest deviation from the national average'''

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012<ref>{{cite book|page=23|title=The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President|author=Kondik, Kyle|year=2016|publisher=Ohio University Press}}</ref> include:

* Ohio – 2.2%
* New Mexico – 2.8%
* Illinois – 3.6%
* [[Missouri]] – 3.7%
* [[Delaware]] – 3.7%

'''States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century include: '''

* Delaware – Perfect from [[1952 United States presidential election|1952]] to [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]].<ref>{{cite web | url=http://americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-delaware-lost-its-bellwether-mojo-and-joined-northeast-corridor | title=How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor | publisher=America Magazine | access-date=13 August 2016 | author=Sullivan, Robert David| date=8 June 2015 }}</ref> As a result of a massive Democrat-strong growth in housing/population in [[New Castle County, Delaware]] (suburban Philadelphia, with the old industrial city of [[Wilmington, Delaware|Wilmington]]), voters tend to lean strongly Democratic. That county had been a bellwether: [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]] to 1996.
* [[Arizona]] – Perfect from [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] to [[1956 United States presidential election|1956]].
* [[North Dakota]] – Perfect from [[1896 United States presidential election|1896]] to [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]].
* [[Kansas]] – Perfect from [[1900 United States presidential election|1900]] to [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]].
* Missouri was often referred to as the ''[[Missouri bellwether]]'' as it produced the same outcome as the national results in the [[United States presidential election|presidential election]] 96.2% of the time for the century between [[1904 United States presidential election|1904]] and [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]], only missing in [[1956 United States presidential election|1956]]. It is considered to have lost its bellwether status with the [[2008 United States presidential election|2008 presidential election]].<ref>{{cite web | url=http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-06-24/missouri-no-longer-political-bellwether/55795366/1 | title=Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall | publisher=USA Today | date=24 June 2012 | access-date=13 August 2016 | author=Shesgreen, Deirdre}}</ref>
* [[Washington (state)|Washington]] – 1 miss from [[1900 United States presidential election|1900]] to [[1956 United States presidential election|1956]] (in [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]]).
* [[Minnesota]] – 1 miss from [[1920 United States presidential election|1920]] to [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]] (in [[1968 United States presidential election|1968]]).
* [[Texas]] – 1 miss from [[1928 United States presidential election|1928]] to [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]] (in [[1968 United States presidential election|1968]]).
* [[Arkansas]] – 1 miss from [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]] to [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]] (in [[1968 United States presidential election|1968]]).
* [[Idaho]] – 2 misses ([[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1904 United States presidential election|1904]] to [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]].
* [[Tennessee]] – 2 misses ([[1924 United States presidential election|1924]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]]) from [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] to  [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]].
* [[New Jersey]] – 2 misses ([[1948 United States presidential election|1948]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1920 United States presidential election|1920]] to [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]].
* [[Virginia]] – 2 misses ([[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1928 United States presidential election|1928]] to [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]]. Was traditionally Republican at the time. Otherwise, the state was traditionally Democratic. Although the [[2012 United States presidential election|2012 election]] was not included in this bellwether run, Virginia was actually the closest state to the national vote in 2012. Donald Trump, however, managed to win in [[2016 United States presidential election|the next election]] without Virginia.
* Illinois – 3 misses ([[1884 United States presidential election|1884]], [[1916 United States presidential election|1916]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1852 United States presidential election|1852]] to [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]], the most reliable in this period.<ref name="IllinoisBellwether">{{cite web | url=http://www.lib.niu.edu/1990/ii900209.html | title=Illinois as a bellwether: So what? | date=February 1990 | access-date=13 August 2016 | author=Everson, David | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304194005/http://www.lib.niu.edu/1990/ii900209.html | archive-date=4 March 2016 | url-status=dead }}</ref> As the [[Chicago metropolitan area]] shifted to become overwhelmingly Democratic, the state lost its bellwether status. No Republican had ever won the White House without taking Illinois prior to 2000.
* [[California]] – 3 misses ([[1912 United States presidential election|1912]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1888 United States presidential election|1888]] to [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]].
* [[Utah]] – 3 misses ([[1912 United States presidential election|1912]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1900 United States presidential election|1900]] to [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]].
* [[Wyoming]] – 3 misses ([[1944 United States presidential election|1944]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1900 United States presidential election|1900]] to [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]].
* [[Montana]] – 3 misses ([[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]], [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]]) from [[1904 United States presidential election|1904]] to [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]].
* New Mexico – 3 misses ([[1976 United States presidential election|1976]], [[2000 United States presidential election|2000]], [[2016 United States presidential election|2016]]) from [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] to [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]].
* [[Kentucky]] – 3 misses ([[1920 United States presidential election|1920]], [[1952 United States presidential election|1952]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]]) from [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] to [[2004 United States presidential election|2004]].
* [[Oklahoma]] – 3 misses ([[1924 United States presidential election|1924]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] to [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]].
* [[New Hampshire]] – 3 misses ([[1948 United States presidential election|1948]], [[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]]) from [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]] to [[2000 United States presidential election|2000]].
* [[Colorado]] – 3 misses ([[1960 United States presidential election|1960]], [[1976 United States presidential election|1976]], [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]]) from [[1948 United States presidential election|1948]] to [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]].
* [[Iowa]] – 3 misses ([[1976 United States presidential election|1976]], [[1988 United States presidential election|1988]], [[2000 United States presidential election|2000]]) from [[1964 United States Presidential Election|1964]] to [[2016 United States presidential election|2016]].

'''Historic bellwether states: '''
* Pennsylvania – One miss from [[1800 United States presidential election|1800]] to [[1880 United States presidential election|1880]] (in [[1824 United States presidential election|1824]]).
* [[Indiana]] – One miss from [[1852 United States presidential election|1852]] to [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] (in [[1876 United States presidential election|1876]]).
* [[Wisconsin]] – One miss from [[1860 United States presidential election|1860]] to [[1912 United States presidential election|1912]] (in [[1884 United States presidential election|1884]]).
* [[New York (state)|New York]] – One miss from [[1880 United States presidential election|1880]] to [[1944 United States presidential election|1944]] (in [[1916 United States presidential election|1916]]). It previously had a perfect streak from [[1816 United States presidential election|1816]] to [[1852 United States presidential election|1852]]. Had the most electoral votes during the entire period.

The [[Territory of Guam]] had no misses from [[1984 United States presidential election|1984]] to [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]] (100.0%); it lacks [[Electoral College (United States)|electoral college]] votes, but conducts a [[United States presidential straw polls in Guam|presidential straw vote]] on local election day. From 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/|title=Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections|first=David|last=Leip|website=uselectionatlas.org}}</ref> Due to the [[Electoral College (United States)|Electoral College]] system, bellwethers of sufficient size form the focus of political attention and presidential campaigns as [[swing state]]s. By 2016, Ohio and, with almost double its electors, Florida, were seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and politically mixed breakdown. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so the party campaigns there intensively.<ref>Fessenden, Ford. [https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/12/politics/recount/12NUMB.html "Ballots Cast by Blacks and Older Voters Were Tossed in Far Greater Numbers"], ''[[The New York Times]]'' (November 12, 2001).</ref> The period from 1964 to 2016 ties Ohio with Pennsylvania, from 1828 to 1880, as the longest consecutive bellwether streak in US history. In the [[2020 United States Presidential election|2020 election]] [[Joe Biden]] defeated incumbent [[Donald Trump]] without winning either Ohio or Florida. He won Arizona, which no other Democratic candidate had won since [[1996 United States presidential election|1996]], and Georgia (of similar population size to Ohio), which no Democrat had since [[1992 United States presidential election|1992]]. However, the rightward political shift of Ohio and Florida, which was modest in the 2016 and 2020 elections, accelerated greatly in 2024 with both states measuring double-digit margins toward the Republican party, more than ten points to the right of the national average. Thus, Georgia and Arizona are newer swing states, while Ohio and Florida appear less likely to swing back leftward.

=== Others ===

====Brazil==== 
In [[Brazil]]'s direct presidential elections the winner has taken the state of [[Minas Gerais]] in the [[Two-round system|last-round]] of every election between [[1955 Brazilian presidential election|1955]] and [[2022 Brazilian presidential election|2022]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Category:Brazilian presidential election maps - Wikimedia Commons|url=https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Brazilian_presidential_election_maps|website=commons.wikimedia.org}}</ref> The state has more than 21 million residents, includes [[Belo Horizonte]] (the [[List of metropolitan areas in Brazil|third-largest metropolitan area in Brazil]]) and has been birthplace of the record of nine presidents to date.<ref>{{cite web |author1=Gabriel Maia |author2=Gabriel Zanlorenssi |author3=Rodolfo Almeida |title=Os presidentes do Brasil: mandato, formação, cidade e idade |url=https://www.nexojornal.com.br/grafico/2018/02/28/Os-presidentes-do-Brasil-mandato-forma%C3%A7%C3%A3o-cidade-e-idade |website=Nexo Jornal |access-date=11 June 2018 |date=28 February 2018}}</ref>

Because of its varied topography, large area (larger than [[Metropolitan France]]) and significant share of national population (10.1%, second only to [[São Paulo]]), it is considered as a microcosm of Brazil's society and economics as a whole.<ref>[https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2022/10/27/brazils-election-is-tight-ahead-of-a-run-off-on-october-30th Brazil’s election is tight ahead of a run-off on October 30th], ''[[The Economist]]'', October 27th, 2022</ref>

====France====
Since the substantial role began in 1958, under the [[French Fifth Republic]], the president has since [[1965 French presidential election|1965]] in the final (second) round always won: diminutive [[Ardèche]] and with about double its population each, [[Calvados (department)|Calvados]], [[Charente-Maritime]], [[Indre-et-Loire]] and [[Loire (department)|Loire]].<ref>{{cite web|title=L'élection présidentielle en France - Politiquemania|url=http://www.politiquemania.com/presidentielles.html|website=www.politiquemania.com}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Résultats pour Marine Le Pen au second tour de l'élection présidentielle 2022 en France : 2nd tour|url=https://www.les-elections.fr/resultats-presidentielle-2022/candidats/marine-le-pen}}</ref>  Together these account for more than 3 million residents.  Each combines urban with rural and many touristic sites.

====South Korea====
Since the [[1987 South Korean presidential election|1987]] presidential election, the central, thus somewhat mountainous, [[Administrative divisions of South Korea|province]] of [[North Chungcheong]] is the only one of the 17 first-tier divisions in which the most voted candidate for the [[President of South Korea|presidency]] has consistently become the national winner.  It has more than one and half million residents.

====Spain====
Since democracy was restored in [[1977 Spanish general election|1977]], up to [[2023 Spanish general election|2023]] two provinces have always voted for the winning party ([[Province of Zaragoza|Zaragoza]] and [[Province of Huesca|Huesca]]). The [[Autonomous communities of Spain|Autonomous Community]] of [[Aragon]] hosts these provinces. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.<ref>{{cite web|title=Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies|url=http://electionresources.org/es/index_en.html|website=electionresources.org}}</ref> It has more than a million residents and combines much rural land with mountains and socially diverse urban communities.

====Taiwan====
From the first competitive multi-party elections in [[1996 Taiwan presidential election|1996]], [[Changhua County]], a west coast [[Subdivisions of Taiwan|region of Taiwan]] of more than a million residents, is where the preference has matched the elected president.

==See also==
* [[As Maine goes, so goes the nation]]
* [[Bellwether trial]]
* [[Early adopter]]
* [[wikt:harbinger|Harbinger]]
* [[Peer-mediated instruction]]
* [[Swing state]]
* [[Sentinel species]]
* [[Tipping-point state]]
* ''[[Will it play in Peoria?]]''

==References==
{{Wiktionary}}
{{Reflist|30em}}

[[Category:Social concepts]]
[[Category:Economic concepts]]
[[Category:Political science terminology]]
[[Category:Metaphors referring to sheep or goats]]