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{{short description|Project to add new information about past North Atlantic hurricanes}}
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[[Image:1911 Atlantic Hurricane Season.jpg|thumb|right|Reanalyzed [[1911 Atlantic hurricane season]]]]
The '''Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project''' of the [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] seeks to correct and add new information about past [[North Atlantic hurricane]]s.  It was started around 2000 to update [[HURDAT]], the official [[tropical cyclone|hurricane]] database for the [[Atlantic Ocean|Atlantic Basin]], which has become outdated since its creation due to various systematic errors introduced into the database over time.  This effort has involved reanalyses of ship observations from the [[International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set]] (ICOADS) as well as reanalyses done by other researchers over the years.  It is ongoing as of 2025.

==Inaccuracies and omissions in existing data==
[[Image:Invalidpreswindrelationship.png|thumb|right|Arrows point to storms with unlikely wind/pressure relationships in HURDAT]]

===Errors===
HURDAT contains a number of errors which need to be corrected, such demonstrated by the outliers in the a pressure vs. wind speed graph of datapoints in the database (right).  Some of these errors have existed since the database's creation during [[NASA]]'s [[Apollo Program]], where it was used to help produce probabilities of tropical cyclone-induced winds in critical areas such as Cape Kennedy (now [[Cape Canaveral]]).<ref>{{cite web
| url = http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/cira-hurdat04.ppt
| title = The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project: Results for 1851 to 1910 and 1992's Hurricane Andrew
| access-date = 2006-03-09
| last1 = Landsea
| first1 = Chris
| author-link = Chris Landsea
| first2 = Craig |last2=Anderson |first3=Noel |last3=Charles |first4=Gil |last4=Clark |first5=Peter |last5=Dodge |first6=Jason |last6=Dunion |first7=Jose |last7=Fernandez-Partagas |first8=James |last8=Franklin |first9=Paul |last9=Hungerford |first10=Charlie |last10=Neumann |first11=Mark |last11=Zimmer |last12=[[National Hurricane Center]] Best Track Change Committee
| date = 2004-04-02
| format = Powerpoint Presentation
| publisher = [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]]/Hurricane Research Division
| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060211160330/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/cira-hurdat04.ppt| archive-date= 11 February 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>

===New information===
A significant amount of new data for systems between 1851 and 1886 became available after a major basin-wide reanalysis in 1996, a project led by Jose Fernandez-Paratagas with the collaboration of Henry Diaz. The new data was constructed using old newspaper articles and the hemispheric [[surface weather analysis|weather map]] series.  Hurricane histories for individual states had been constructed by the 1990s as well, which proposed new storms and increased the knowledge of tropical cyclones already in the database.  Due to this profusion of relevant information not included in HURDAT, and evolving definitions for [[tropical cyclone|tropical]] and [[subtropical cyclone]]s over the decades, the project was started around 2000 to update the official database.<ref name="Main_Project_Page">{{cite web
 |url=http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/hurdat.html 
 |title=Atlantic Hurricane Re-analysis Project 
 |access-date=2006-03-09 
 |date=2004-12-08 
 |publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]]/[[Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory]] 
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060206183519/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/hurdat.html 
 |archive-date=6 February 2006 
 |url-status=dead 
}}</ref>  Since then, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set has been utilized to check for older ship reports which were either not utilized nor available to previous researchers.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/reanal_1911-20.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Journal of Climate |volume=21 |page=2140 |title=A Reanalysis of the 1911–20 Atlantic Hurricane Database |display-authors=1 |author1=Christopher W. Landsea |author2=David A. Glenn |author3=William Bredmeyer |author4=Michael Chenoweth |author5=Ryan Ellis |author6=John Gamanche |author7=Lyle Hufstetler |author8=Cary Mock |author9=Ramon Perez |author10=Ricardo Prieto |author11=Jorge Sánchez-Sesma |author12=Donna Thomas |author13=Lenworth Woolcock }}</ref>

===Incompleteness of dataset===
As early as 1957, it was recognized that an increasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones each season in the Atlantic Basin was at least partially tied to increasing observations and better records.<ref>Daily Gleaner. [http://www.thehurricanearchive.com/Viewer.aspx?img=15993913_clean&firstvisit=true&src=search&currentResult=0&currentPage=0 Bad News for 'Hurricane Hunters'.]{{Dead link|date=May 2019 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} Retrieved on 2008-06-06.</ref>  By analyzing the density of ship tracks over time, it has been estimated that between 1900 and 1966, an average of two storms per year are missing from HURDAT.  This is mainly due to a lack of satellite imagery and lack of reconnaissance aircraft prior to 1943.  An additional storm per year is likely missing prior to the advent of new technologies.  These technologies include satellite-derived [[Quikscat]] winds, satellite-derived temperature profile information, and Robert Hart's cyclone phase space diagrams, which have led to a recent increase in tropical cyclone detection.  Quikscat was launched in 1999, and has been credited with allowing [[Tropical Storm Chantal (2007)|Chantal]] to be named during the [[2007 Atlantic hurricane season]].<ref>Eric Berger. [http://sweetness-light.com/archive/tropical-storm-numbers-have-been-inflated Decisions to name storms draw concern.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080607135254/http://sweetness-light.com/archive/tropical-storm-numbers-have-been-inflated |date=2008-06-07 }} Retrieved on 2008-04-05.</ref>  The last two help determine whether or not a [[low pressure area]] is an [[extratropical cyclone]], [[subtropical cyclone]], or tropical cyclone.<ref name = bibcode/>

[[Christopher Landsea]] noted that the efforts to reanalyze the Atlantic hurricane database <blockquote>will not be able to recover observations of open ocean tropical cyclones that were just never taken. Researchers cannot assume that the Atlantic tropical cyclone database presents a complete depiction of frequency of events before the advent of satellite imagery in the mid-1960s. Moreover, newly available advanced tools and techniques are also contributing toward monitoring about one additional Atlantic tropical cyclone per year since 2002. Thus large, long-term 'trends' in tropical cyclone frequency are primarily manifestations of increased monitoring capabilities and likely not related to any real change in the climate in which they develop.<ref name = bibcode>{{cite journal |last=Landsea |first=C. W.|authorlink = Chris Landsea |year=2007 |title=Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones back to 1900 |journal=Eos |volume=88 |issue=18 |pages=197–202 |doi=10.1029/2007EO180001 |bibcode = 2007EOSTr..88..197L |s2cid=128942012 |url = http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf}}</ref></blockquote>

The [[IPCC]] report from 2007 noted on older datasets, "The historical record typically records the central pressure and the maximum winds, but these turn out not to be physically consistent in older records, mainly prior to about the early 1970s. However, attempts at mutual adjustments result in increases in some years and decreases in others, with little effect on overall trends."<ref name="IPCC2007">{{cite web|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-8-3.html|title=Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis|year=2007|publisher=IPCC|access-date=2017-10-08|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181102212836/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-8-3.html|archive-date=2018-11-02|url-status=dead}}</ref> However, scientist also point out that many storms remain under reported, especially those not making landfall, or staying in the open ocean.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://globalnews.ca/news/3787686/hurricanes-season-atlantic|title=Hurricane period ravaging Atlantic is the most active on record|date=October 5, 2017|publisher=Global News}}</ref> The emerging studies of geological proxies in [[Paleotempestology]] however can help to bring more trends to light, by for instance assessing sediments proxies from storm surge.

==Progress==
[[Image:HurricaneAndrew.jpg|thumb|right|[[Hurricane Andrew]] over [[South Florida]] as a Category 5 hurricane]]
The project ranks the year 1914 as the quietest hurricane season ever for the Atlantic basin with just one tropical storm. As of January&nbsp;2022&nbsp;the project has reanalyzed storms from the period 1886–1970&nbsp;and has extended HURDAT back to 1851.<ref name="metadata">{{cite web|author=National Hurricane Center|author2=Hurricane Research Division|author3=Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory|title=Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT) Meta Data|publisher=United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research|date=March 2014|access-date=2015-03-14|url=http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_master.html}}</ref>{{Atlantic hurricane best track}} In 2001, data for the years 1851&ndash;1885 were added to the official database from the Fernández-Partagás series of publications. Also, a paleotempestology conference was held at the [[University of South Carolina]] which proposed to increase the scope of HURDAT from a starting year of 1851 to a start of 1800.  The conference also discussed ways of exchanging information for the inclusion of older [[tropical cyclone]]s, such as via [[compact disc]] or a Wikipedia-style website.<ref name=Prelim>{{cite web
| url = http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/hurricane/conference.html
| title = Preliminary Summary of WORKSHOP on ATLANTIC BASIN PALEOHURRICANE RECONSTRUCTIONS from HIGH RESOLUTION RECORDS
| access-date = 2006-03-09
| publisher = [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]] Paleoclimatology Program
}}</ref> While the reanalysis has mostly proceeded sequentially, notable exceptions have been made for the reanalysis of some significant tropical cyclones. In 2002, for the tenth anniversary of [[Hurricane Andrew]], the reanalysis was completed for the hurricane, which upgraded the cyclone to a [[List of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes|Category 5]] hurricane. In 2014, a similar reanalysis was completed for [[Hurricane Camille]]. In 2022, the [[1944 Great Atlantic hurricane|Great Atlantic hurricane]] of [[1944 Atlantic hurricane season|1944]] was also upgraded to a Category 5.<ref name="metadata" />

Work by Michael Chenoweth, in collaboration with Cary Mock, increased knowledge of tropical cyclones in the [[Caribbean Sea]] for 1750 to 1786. In 2006, Chenoweth completed and published a basin-wide reassessment for old source material from the 1700 to 1855 period by using [[surface weather observation]]s mainly in the form of ship reports, newspapers, and various diaries and journals from the region around the [[Caribbean Sea]].<ref name=Chenoweth>{{cite web
| url = http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Chenoweth/chenoweth06.pdf
| title = A Reassessment of Historical Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity, 1700-1855
| access-date = 2015-01-22
| last = Chenoweth
| first = Michael
| date = 2005-07-19 |orig-year=original document 2004-08-06
}}</ref><ref name="Project_Details_Page">{{cite web
| url = http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html
| title = ''<nowiki>[</nowiki>The Atlantic Hurricane Database<nowiki>]</nowiki>'' Re-Analysis Project
| access-date = 2006-03-09
| last = Landsea
| first = Chris
| author-link = Chris Landsea
|date=June 2006
| publisher = [[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration|NOAA]]/Hurricane Research Division
| archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20060316024138/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html| archive-date= 16 March 2006 | url-status= live}}</ref>
In 2014, Michael Chenoweth and Dmitry Divine completed and published an Atlantic basin-wide reassessment for the 1851–1898&nbsp;period as well.<ref name="ChenowethReanal">{{cite journal|last1=Chenoweth|first1=Michael|title=A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98|journal=Journal of Climate|date=December 2014|volume=27|issue=12|pages=8674–8685|doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00771.1|publisher=American Meteorological Society|bibcode=2014JCli...27.8674C|doi-access=free}}</ref>

===Future efforts in other basins===
[[Image:Freda Mar 15 1981 2051Z.png|thumb|left|Typhoon Freda (1981), in [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] database as {{convert|100|kn|km/h}} while [[Dvorak technique|Dvorak estimates]] were {{convert|115|kn|km/h}}]]
There is agreement within [[tropical cyclone]] circles of doing an "Atlantic-style" reanalysis for other ocean basins.  Some efforts are underway to start similar reanalyses across the western<ref>{{cite web
| url = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/108298.pdf
| title = Reanalysis of West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity 1966-1987 (Abstract of presentation)
| access-date = 2006-03-09
| last = Knaff
| first = John A.
|author2=Charles R. Sampson
| date = 2006-04-25
| work = 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
| publisher = [[American Meteorological Society]]
}}</ref> and eastern north [[Pacific Ocean]],<ref name="EPAC">{{cite conference|author=Kimberlain, Todd B|url=https://ams.confex.com/ams/30Hurricane/webprogram/Paper204625.html|date=April 16, 2012|access-date=March 6, 2015|title=Re-analysis of the Eastern North Pacific HURDAT|conference=30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology}}</ref> but are likely to take longer to complete. This is due to the need for coordination between the multiple [[Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre]]s, which have the responsibility for tracking and forecasting tropical cyclones across that ocean. During February 2016, the NHC released the [[1959 Mexico hurricane]]'s reanalysis, which was the first system outside the Atlantic basin to be reassessed using methods developed for the Atlantic reanalysis process.<ref>{{cite press release|access-date=February 4, 2016 |url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160204_pa_1959HurricaneReanalysis.pdf |title=Re-analysis of the 1959 Manzanillo Mexico Hurricane Landfall intensity changed from category 5 to category 4 |date=February 4, 2016 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160205005228/http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20160204_pa_1959HurricaneReanalysis.pdf |publisher=United States National Hurricane Center |archive-date=February 5, 2016 }}</ref>
{{clear}}

==See also==
{{Portal|Tropical cyclones}}
*[[HURDAT]] (online database)
*[[Outline of tropical cyclones]]
*[[Tropical cyclones and climate change]]

==References==
{{Reflist|30em}}

===Sources===
*{{cite book|last=Chenoweth|first=Michael|year=2003|title=The 18th Century Climate of Jamaica, Derived from the Journals of Thomas Thistlewood, 1750 &ndash; 1786|url=https://archive.org/details/18thcenturyclima0000chen|url-access=registration|isbn=0-87169-932-X|publisher=[[American Philosophical Society]]|location=[[Philadelphia]]|via=[[Internet Archive]]}}
*{{cite journal |last1=Landsea |first1=Christopher W. |last2=Delgado |first2=Sandy |last3=Willoughby |first3=Hugh |author-link1=Christopher Landsea |title=Reanalysis of the 1954–63 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons |journal=[[Journal of Climate]] |date=June 2018 |volume=31 |issue=11 |pages=4177–4192 |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0537.1 |url=https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/delgado-et-al-jclimate-2018.pdf |publisher=[[American Meteorological Society]] |location=[[Boston]] |bibcode=2018JCli...31.4177D|doi-access=free|via=Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory}}

==External links==
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20060206183519/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/hurdat.html Atlantic Hurricane Re-Analysis Project]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20090327091843/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html AOML Hurricane Re-Analysis Project]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20060902101755/http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-08312003-201707/ Early 19th Century U.S. Hurricanes - GIS]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20060902022308/http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/lahur.php Louisiana Hurricane History]
*[http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/hurricane/ Paleotempestology Resource Center - NOAA]
*[https://web.archive.org/web/20060904070540/http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.php Texas Hurricane History]
*[http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/vahur.htm Virginia Hurricane History]

{{DEFAULTSORT:Atlantic Hurricane Reanalysis}}
[[Category:Atlantic hurricanes]]