View source for 2008 Ryde state by-election

{{Use Australian English|date=October 2019}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=October 2019}}
{{Infobox election
| country = New South Wales
| type = parliamentary
| ongoing = no
| election_date = 18 October 2008
| previous_election = 2007 New South Wales state election
| previous_year = 2007
| next_election = 2011 New South Wales state election
| next_year = 2011
| seats_for_election = [[Electoral district of Ryde]] in the [[New South Wales Legislative Assembly|Legislative Assembly]]

| image1 = [[File:Dominello with coalition leadership (cropped).JPG|150x150px]]
| candidate1 = [[Victor Dominello]]
| party1 = Liberal Party of Australia (New South Wales Division)
| popular_vote1 = '''21,370'''
| percentage1 = '''54.34%'''
| swing1 = {{increase}} 25.74

| image2 = [[File:Labor Placeholder.png|150x150px]]
| candidate2 = Nicole Campbell
| party2 = Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
| popular_vote2 = 11,725
| percentage2 = 29.81%
| swing2 = {{decrease}} 15.03

| image3 = [[File:Greens placeholder-01.png|150x150px]]
| candidate3 = Lindsay Peters
| party3 = The Greens NSW
| popular_vote3 = 4,407
| percentage3 = 11.21%
| swing3 = {{increase}} 3.34

| 1blank = [[Two-party-preferred vote|TPP]]
| 2blank = TPP swing
| 1data1 = '''63.01%'''
| 2data1 = {{increase}} 23.10
| 1data2 = 36.99%
| 2data2 = {{decrease}} 23.10

| map_image = [[File:Ryde NSW State Electoral District.png|300px]]
| map_caption = Location in [[New South Wales]]

| title = [[Member of parliament|MP]]
| before_election = [[John Watkins (Australian politician)|John Watkins]]
| before_party = Australian Labor Party (New South Wales Branch)
| after_election = [[Victor Dominello]]
| after_party = Liberal Party of Australia (New South Wales Division)
}}
A by-election was held for the [[New South Wales Legislative Assembly]] seat of [[Electoral district of Ryde|Ryde]] on 18 October 2008 to coincide with the [[2008 Port Macquarie state by-election|Port Macquarie]], [[2008 Lakemba state by-election|Lakemba]] and [[2008 Cabramatta state by-election|Cabramatta]] by-elections.<ref name="abcnews_2355236">{{Cite news|title=Liberals 'a big chance' in Watkins' seat|work=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]]|date=2008-09-04|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-09-04/liberals-a-big-chance-in-watkins-seat/499292|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210063926/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-09-04/liberals-a-big-chance-in-watkins-seat/499292 |archive-date=10 December 2023|url-status=live|access-date=2008-09-07}}</ref> The by-election was triggered by the resignation of sitting member and Deputy Premier [[John Watkins (Australian politician)|John Watkins]], who cited exhaustion and the lack of time spent with his family for his resignation.<ref>{{cite news | last = Smith | first = Alexandra |work=AAP | title = Watkins quits politics to put family first | via = [[The Sydney Morning Herald]] | date = 2008-09-03 |archive-date=10 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210062919/https://www.smh.com.au/national/watkins-quits-politics-to-put-family-first-20080904-gdsti2.html |url-status=live | url = http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/john-watkins-quits-family-first/2008/09/03/1220121304006.html | access-date = 2008-09-07}}</ref> Watkins resigned as Deputy Premier and Minister for Transport and retired from parliament on 8 September 2008, prompting a Cabinet reshuffle.

The by-election was won by [[Liberal Party of Australia (New South Wales Division)|Liberal]] candidate [[Victor Dominello]] on a swing of 23%. This was a marked turnaround to the result at the [[2007 New South Wales state election|2007 state election]], when Watkins was reelected with 60.09% of the two-party preferred vote.<ref>{{cite web | title = Ryde - 2007 (Roll: 46,237) | website = parliament.nsw.gov.au | url = https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/electionresults18562007/2007/Ryde.htm |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210062918/https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/electionresults18562007/2007/Ryde.htm |archive-date=10 December 2023 |url-status=live | access-date = 2008-09-07 }}</ref>

However, the writ was issued at a very bad time for the government. Labor had been sinking in the polls since being reelected a year earlier. It had suffered from several months of bad press that had driven its poll numbers downward. It was only polling at 44% support, a swing of almost 8% from the 2007 election.  Additionally, Watkins' resignation had touched off a domino effect that ultimately resulted in [[Premier of New South Wales|Premier]] [[Morris Iemma]] leaving politics as well.

Watkins had held Ryde without interruption or serious difficulty since its re-creation in 1999, having held its predecessor seat of [[electoral district of Gladesville|Gladesville]] since 1995.  Labor sat on a margin of 10.1%, which would have been considered safe under normal conditions (any seat with a two-party margin greater than 10% is considered safe on paper).  However, the seat had historically been marginal at the federal level.  Combined with Labor's declining poll numbers, commentators thought it was vulnerable to being taken by the Liberals.

On paper, Dominello's victory turned Ryde from a safe Labor seat into a safe Liberal seat in one stroke.   At the time, it was the largest swing against a sitting government in New South Wales history; it has since been outdone by the [[2010 Penrith state by-election|2010 Penrith by-election]] (which saw a 25% swing against Labor) and the [[2013 Miranda state by-election|2013 Miranda by-election]] (which saw a 26% swing against the Coalition).

The loss of Ryde significantly weakened the standing of Iemma's successor, [[Nathan Rees]], who would himself be ousted in a party room coup a year later.  Labor would go on to suffer a landslide defeat at the [[2011 New South Wales state election|2011 state election]].

==Dates==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Date
! Event
|-
| 12 September 2008
| Resignation of [[John Watkins (Australian politician)|John Watkins]].<ref name="John Watkins NSW parl">{{cite NSW Parliament |title=The Hon. John Arthur Watkins AM (1955- ) |id=2120 |former=Yes |accessdate=8 June 2019}}</ref>
|-
| 22 September 2008
| [[Writ of election]] issued by the [[Speaker of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly|Speaker of the Legislative Assembly]] and close of [[electoral roll]]s.<ref>
{{cite web |url=https://gazette.legislation.nsw.gov.au/so/download.w3p?id=Gaz_Gazette%20Split%202008_2008-122.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210064922/https://gazette.legislation.nsw.gov.au/so/download.w3p?id=Gaz_Gazette%20Split%202008_2008-122.pdf |archive-date=10 December 2023 |url-status=live |issn=0155-6320|title=Writ of election: Ryde |newspaper=[[Government Gazette of the State of New South Wales]] |issue=122 |date=22 September 2008 |access-date=23 October 2019 |page=9392 |first=Russell D. |last=Grove |publisher=Clerk of the Legislative Assembly |via=Denis H. Helm, Government Printer |location=Sydney}}</ref>
|-
| 26 September 2008
| Date of nomination
|-
| 18 October 2008
| Polling day
|-
| 1 November 2008
| Return of writ
|}

==Results==

{{Election box begin |
  |title=2008 Ryde by-election{{hsp}}<ref>{{cite web |url=https://elections.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/55cc78c8-3d20-4679-985c-71c8fccb746e/2008-ryde-state-by-election-report.pdf |title=State By-Election Report Ryde 2008 |publisher=NSW Electoral Commission |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231210063335/https://elections.nsw.gov.au/getmedia/55cc78c8-3d20-4679-985c-71c8fccb746e/2008-ryde-state-by-election-report.pdf |archive-date=10 December 2023 |location=Level 25, 201 Kent Street, Sydney 2000 |date=25 May 2009 |quote=Dominello elected at count 1 |page=14}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref> }}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
  |party      = Liberal NSW
  |candidate  = [[Victor Dominello]]
  |votes      = 21,370
  |percentage = 54.34
  |change     = +25.74
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
  |party      = Labor NSW
  |candidate  = Nicole Campbell
  |votes      = 11,725
  |percentage = 29.81
  |change     = −15.03
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
  |party      = Greens NSW
  |candidate  = Lindsay Peters
  |votes      = 4,407
  |percentage = 11.21
  |change     = +3.34
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
  |party      = Independent
  |candidate  = Victor Taffa
  |votes      = 1,171
  |percentage = 2.98
  |change     = +2.98
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
  |party      = Democrats
  |candidate  = Peter Goldfinch
  |votes      = 656
  |percentage = 1.67
  |change     = +0.27
}}
{{Election box formal
 |votes = 39,329
 |percentage = 97.96
 |change = +0.53
}}
{{Election box informal
 |votes = 820
 |percentage = 2.04
 |change = −0.53
}}
{{Election box turnout
 |votes = 40,149
 |percentage = 83.64
 |change = −9.33
}}
{{Election box 2pp}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Liberal NSW
|candidate = [[Victor Dominello]]
|votes = 22,556
|percentage = 63.01
|change = +23.10
}}
{{Election box candidate AU party|
|party = Labor NSW
|candidate = Nicole Campbell
|votes = 13,243
|percentage = 36.99
|change = −23.10
}}
{{Election box gain AU party
 |winner = Liberal NSW
 |loser = Labor NSW
 |swing = +23.10
}}
{{Election box end}}

==See also==
*[[Electoral results for the district of Ryde]]
*[[List of New South Wales state by-elections]]

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
* [http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2008/byelections/ryde.htm ABC District Profile & Election Coverage]

{{NSW by-elections 54th parl|state=expanded}}
{{Results of New South Wales state elections}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Ryde 2008}}
[[Category:2008 elections in Australia]]
[[Category:New South Wales state by-elections]]
[[Category:2008 in New South Wales]]
[[Category:October 2008 in Australia]]