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Shimabara Rebellion

2025-05-15T15:33:49Z

138.75.43.17: /* See also */

{{short description|1630s rebellion in Japan}}
{{Expand Japanese|topic=mil|date=April 2021}}
{{Infobox military conflict
| conflict = Shimabara Rebellion
| partof = the early [[Edo period]]
| image = Shimabara-Battle-Map-c17th-century.png
| image_size = 250px
| caption = Shimabara battle map and [[Hara Castle]]
| date = 17 December 1637 – 15 April 1638
| place = [[Shimabara Domain]], [[Tokugawa Shogunate]] (present-day [[Nagasaki Prefecture]], [[Japan]])
| territory =
| result = Tokugawa victory
| combatant1 = [[Tokugawa shogunate]] [[Dutch East India Company]]<ref>{{Cite book |last=Fairburn |first=William Armstrong |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=MHjVAAAAMAAJ&dq=shimabara+rebellion+dutch&pg=PA538 |title=Merchant Sail |date=1945 |publisher=Fairburn Marine Educational Foundation |isbn=978-0-598-74741-9 |language=en}}</ref>
| combatant2 = [[Catholicism in Japan|Japanese Catholics]] and [[rōnin]] peasants
| commander1 = {{plainlist|
* [[Itakura Shigemasa]]{{KIA}}
* [[Matsudaira Nobutsuna]]
* [[Matsukura Katsuie]]
* Terasawa Katataka
* [[Miyamoto Musashi]]
* [[Shimazu Mitsuhisa]]
* [[Hosokawa Tadatoshi]]
* [[Toda Ujikane]]
* [[Nabeshima Katsushige]]
* Kuroda Tadayuki
* Arima Toyōji
* [[Tachibana Muneshige]]
* [[Arima Naozumi]]
* [[Ogasawara Tadazane]]
* [[Takada Matabei]]
* Ogasawara Nagatsugu
* Matsudaira Shigenao
* Yamada Arinaga
* [[Mizuno Katsushige|Mizuno Katsunari]]
* Mizuno Katsutoshi
* Mizuno Katsusada
* Ii Naozumi
* [[Nicolaes Couckebacker]]
}}
| commander2 = [[Amakusa Shirō]]{{Executed}} [[Mori Sōiken]]{{KIA}} Arie Kenmotsu{{KIA}} Masuda Yoshitsugu{{KIA}} Ashizuga Chuemon{{KIA}} [[Yamada Emosaku]]{{Turncoat}}
| strength1 = 200,000+<ref name="uwosh">{{cite web|url=http://www.uwosh.edu/home_pages/faculty_staff/earns/correa.html |title=WISHES |publisher=Uwosh.edu |date=1999-02-05 |access-date=2018-04-15}}</ref>
| strength2 = 37,000–40,000<ref name="uwosh" />
| casualties1 = 21,800 casualties
* 10,800 killed<ref name="uwosh" />
* 11,000 wounded
| casualties2 = 37,000+ killed<ref name="uwosh" />
| casus = Peasants and masterless samurai rebelling against overtaxation and religious oppression
}}
{{Shimabara Rebellion}}

The {{nihongo|'''Shimabara Rebellion'''|島原の乱|Shimabara no ran}}, also known as the {{nihongo|'''Shimabara-Amakusa Rebellion'''|島原･天草の乱|Shimabara-Amakusa no ran}} or {{nihongo||島原･天草一揆|Shimabara-Amakusa Ikki}}, was an [[rebellion|uprising]] that occurred in the [[Shimabara Domain]] of the [[Tokugawa shogunate]] in [[Japan]] from 17 December 1637 to 15 April 1638.

[[Matsukura Katsuie]], the ''[[daimyō]]'' of the Shimabara Domain, enforced unpopular policies set by his father [[Matsukura Shigemasa]] that drastically raised taxes to construct the new [[Shimabara Castle]] and violently prohibited [[Christianity]]. In December 1637, an alliance of local ''[[rōnin]]'' and mostly [[Kirishitan|Catholic peasants]] led by [[Amakusa Shirō]] rebelled against the Tokugawa shogunate due to discontent over Katsuie's policies. The Tokugawa shogunate sent a force of over 125,000 troops supported by the [[Dutch colonial empire|Dutch]] to suppress the rebels, which defeated the rebels after a lengthy [[siege]] against their stronghold at [[Hara Castle]] in [[Minamishimabara]].

Following the successful suppression of the rebellion, Shirō and an estimated 37,000 rebels and sympathizers were [[Decapitation|beheaded]], and the [[Nanban trade#Portuguese trade in the 16th century|Portuguese traders]] suspected of helping them were expelled from Japan. Katsuie was investigated for misruling, and was eventually beheaded in Edo, the only ''daimyō'' executed during the Edo period.{{Citation needed|date=October 2024}} The Shimabara Domain was given to [[Kōriki Tadafusa]]. Japan's policies of [[sakoku|national seclusion]] and [[Christianity in Japan#Persecution under the Shogunate|persecution of Christianity]] were tightened until the ''[[Bakumatsu]]'' in the 1850s.

Shimabara Rebellion is often portrayed as a Christian rebellion against violent suppression by Matsukura Katsuie. However the main academic understanding is that the rebellion was mainly by peasants against Matsukura's misgovernance, with Christians later joining the rebellion.<ref>{{cite journal | url=http://hdl.handle.net/10112/1067 | hdl=10112/1067 | title=島原の乱 : 宗教一揆的要素の再評価 | journal=史泉 | date=31 July 2009 | volume=110 | pages=36–55 }}</ref>

The Shimabara Rebellion was the largest [[civil conflict]] in Japan during the [[Edo period]], and was one of only a handful of instances of serious unrest during the relatively peaceful period of the Tokugawa shogunate's rule.<ref>Borton, ''Japan's Modern Century'', p. 18.</ref>

==Leadup and outbreak==
In the mid-1630s, the peasants of the [[Shimabara Peninsula]] and [[Amakusa]], dissatisfied with overtaxation and suffering from the effects of famine, revolted against their lords. This was specifically in territory ruled by two lords: [[Matsukura Katsuie]] of the [[Shimabara Domain]], and Terasawa Katataka of the [[Karatsu Domain]].<ref name="muraiarticlebook">Murray, ''Japan'', pp. 258–259.</ref> Those affected also included fishermen, craftsmen and merchants. As the rebellion spread, it was joined by ''[[rōnin]]'' (masterless [[samurai]]) who had once served extinct local clans such as the Amakusa and Shiki, as well as former [[Arima clan]] and Konishi retainers.<ref name="muraiarticlebook" /> The image of a fully "peasant" uprising is also not entirely accurate.<ref>De Bary et al. ''Sources of Japanese Tradition: From Earliest Times to 1600'', p. 150. "...a peasant uprising, known in history as the Shimabara Rebellion, that swept the area..."</ref>

Shimabara had formerly been the domain of the Arima clan, which had been Christian; as a result, many local people were also Christian. The Arima were moved out in 1614 and replaced by the anti-Christian Matsukura.<ref>Murray, p. 258.</ref> The new lord, Matsukura Shigemasa, hoped to advance in the shogunate hierarchy by sponsoring expensive construction projects, including the building and expansion of [[Edo Castle]], and contributed funding for a planned shogunate invasion of [[Luzon]] in the [[Spanish East Indies]], today a part of the [[Philippines]]. Matsukura also built a new castle for his own clan in Shimabara.<ref name="Naramoto94p394">Naramoto (1994), ''Nihon no Kassen'', p. 394.</ref> He placed a greatly disproportionate tax burden on the people of his new domain to pay for these policies, and further angered them by strictly persecuting Christianity.<ref name="Naramoto94p394"/> The policies were continued by Shigemasa's heir, [[Matsukura Katsuie|Katsuie]].

The inhabitants of the Amakusa Islands, which had been part of the fief of [[Konishi Yukinaga]], suffered the same sort of persecution at the hands of the Terasawa family, which, like the Matsukura, had been granted the territory.<ref>Murray, p. 259.</ref> Another growing problem was the presence of numerous unemployed ''samurai'', including former retainers of [[Katō Tadahiro]] and [[Sassa Narimasa]], both of whom had once ruled parts of [[Higo Province]].

==Rebellion==

===Start===
[[File:Amakusa Shiro Battle Flag in Shimabara Rebellion.png|thumb|230px|right|Banner of [[Amakusa Shirō]], during the Shimabara Rebellion.]]
[[File:BeheadedJizo.jpg|thumb|250px|Buddhist statues of [[Ksitigarbha|Jizō]], the [[boddhisatva]] of mercy, beheaded.]]

The discontented ''[[rōnin]]'' of the region, joined by impoverished peasants, began to meet in secret on Yushima (also called "meeting island") and plot an uprising, which broke out on 17 December 1637,<ref name="Morton, Japan, p. 260">Morton, ''Japan: Its History and Culture'', p. 260.</ref> when the local ''[[daikan]]'' ([[magistrate]]) Hayashi Hyōzaemon was assassinated. At the same time, others rebelled in the Amakusa Islands. The rebels quickly increased their ranks by forcing all in the areas they took to join in the uprising. A charismatic 16-year-old youth, [[Amakusa Shirō]], soon emerged as the rebellion's leader.<ref>Naramoto (1994), p. 395.</ref>

The rebels laid siege to the Terasawa clan's Tomioka and Hondo castles, but just before the castles were about to fall, armies from the neighboring domains in [[Kyūshū]] arrived, forcing them to retreat. The rebels then crossed the [[Ariake Sea]] and briefly besieged Matsukura Katsuie's [[Shimabara Castle]] but were again repelled. At this point they gathered near the ruins of [[Hara Castle]], which had been the home of the Arima clan before their move to the Nobeoka Domain and was subsequently demolished.<ref>Naramoto (2001) ''Nihon no Meijōshū'', pp. 168–169.</ref> They built up palisades using the wood from the boats they had crossed the water with, and were greatly aided in their preparations by the weapons, ammunition, and provisions they had plundered from the Matsukura clan's storehouses.<ref>Naramoto (1994), p. 397; Perrin, ''Giving Up the Gun'', p. 65.</ref>

===Siege at Hara Castle===
[[File:Ship Vessel De Ryp at the Shimabara Rebellion.png|thumb|Vessel 'De Ryp' at the Shimabara rebellion]]
[[File:Siege of Hara castle Dutch ships detail.jpg|thumb|Dutch ships at the siege (detail).]]
The allied armies of the local domains, under the command of the Tokugawa shogunate (during shogun [[Tokugawa Iemitsu]]'s reign) with [[Itakura Shigemasa]] as commander-in-chief, then began their siege of Hara Castle. The legendary swordsman [[Miyamoto Musashi]] was present during the battle; he served as a military advisor and aide to [[Hosokawa Tadatoshi]].<ref>Harris, Introduction to ''A Book of Five Rings'', p. 18.</ref> Musashi was knocked off his horse by a stone thrown by a peasant rebel in one of the few verifiable records of him taking part in a campaign.{{Citation needed|reason=Then there should be a citation for such records.|date=January 2019}}

The shogunate troops requested aid from the Dutch, who provided gunpowder and cannons.<ref name="Murray, p. 262">Murray, p. 262.</ref> [[Nicolaes Couckebacker]], [[Opperhoofd]] of the Dutch [[factory (trading post)]] on [[Hirado]] oversaw the transfer of military stores, and when the shogunate forces requested naval support, he personally accompanied the vessel ''de Ryp'' to a position offshore, near Hara Castle.<ref name="Murray, p. 262"/> The cannons sent previously were mounted in a [[Artillery battery|battery]], and an all-out bombardment of the fortress commenced, both from the battery and the ''de Ryp''{{'}}s cannons, but without great result.<ref>Murray, pp. 262–264.</ref> The ship withdrew at the request of the Japanese, following contemptuous messages sent by the rebels to the besieging troops:

<blockquote>Are there no longer courageous soldiers in the realm to do combat with us, and weren't they ashamed to have called in the assistance of foreigners against our small contingent?<ref>Doeff, ''Recollections of Japan'', p. 26.</ref></blockquote>

<gallery mode="packed" heights="170">
File:Shimabara Rebellion Battle Folding Screen by Saito Shuho.jpg|Shimabara Rebellion Battle Folding Screen by Saito Shuho
</gallery>

===Final push and fall===
Itakura Shigemasa was killed in a failed advance. More shogunate troops under [[Matsudaira Nobutsuna]], Itakura's replacement, soon arrived.<ref>Harbottle, ''Dictionary of Battles'', p. 13.</ref> However, the rebels at Hara Castle, who were led by well-trained former samurai, resisted the siege for months and caused the shogunate heavy losses. Both sides had a hard time fighting in winter conditions. On February 3, 1638, the rebels achieved a major victory when a surprise attack killed 2,000 warriors from the [[Hizen Domain]]. However, with their position surrounded and no means of establishing supply lines, their food and ammunition quickly ran out.{{cn|date=April 2019}}

On 4 April 1638, over 27,000 rebels, facing about 125,000 shogunate soldiers<ref>Naramoto (1994), p. 399.</ref> mounted a desperate assault, but were soon forced to withdraw. From the survivors (including Yamada Emosaku, who was believed to have willingly betrayed the rebels), the shogunate forces learned of the rebels' poor condition and how they would likely be unable to withstand another direct attack.{{Citation needed|date=July 2011}}

On 12 April 1638, troops under the command of the Kuroda clan of [[Hizen Domain|Hizen]] stormed the fortress and captured the outer defenses.<ref name="Murray, p. 264">Murray, p. 264</ref>{{Failed verification|date=October 2024|reason=Murray gives the date of the final assault is given, but not its commanders, and he does not note that the siege lasted any longer after the assault.}} The remaining rebels continued to hold out and caused heavy casualties until they were routed three days later, on 15 April 1638.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Gunn|first1=Geoffrey|title=World Trade Systems of the East and West|date=2017|publisher=Brill|isbn=9789004358560|page=134}}</ref>

===Forces present at Shimabara===
The Shimabara rebellion was the first massive military effort since the [[Siege of Osaka]] where the shogunate had to supervise an allied army made up of troops from various domains. The first overall commander, [[Itakura Shigemasa]], had 800 men under his direct command; his replacement, [[Matsudaira Nobutsuna]], had 1,500. Vice-commander [[Toda Ujikane]] had 2,500 of his own troops and 2,500 samurai of the [[Shimabara Domain]] were also present. The bulk of the shogunate's army was drawn from Shimabara's neighboring domains. The largest component, numbering over 35,000 men, came from the [[Saga Domain]], and was under the command of [[Nabeshima Katsushige]]. Second in numbers were the forces of the Kumamoto and Fukuoka domains; 23,500 men under [[Hosokawa Tadatoshi]] and 18,000 men under Kuroda Tadayuki, respectively. From the [[Kurume Domain]] came 8,300 men under Arima Toyouji; from the [[Yanagawa Domain]] 5,500 men under Tachibana Muneshige; from the [[Karatsu Domain]], 7,570 under Terasawa Katataka; from Nobeoka, 3,300 under [[Arima Naozumi]]; from [[Kokura Domain|Kokura]], 6,000 under [[Ogasawara Tadazane]] and his senior retainer Takada Matabei; from [[Nakatsu Domain|Nakatsu]], 2,500 under Ogasawara Nagatsugu; from Bungo-Takada, 1,500 under Matsudaira Shigenao, and from [[Kagoshima Domain|Kagoshima]], 1,000 under Yamada Arinaga, a senior retainer of the [[Shimazu clan]]. The only non-Kyushu forces, apart from the commanders' personal troops, were 5,600 men from the [[Fukuyama Domain]], under the command of Mizuno Katsunari,<ref name="Naramoto, p. 401">Naramoto (1994), p. 401.</ref> Katsutoshi, and Katsusada. A small number of troops from various other locations amounted to 800 additional men. In total, the shogunate's army is known to have comprised over 125,800 men. The strength of the rebel forces is not precisely known, but combatants are estimated to have numbered over 14,000, while noncombatants who sheltered in the castle during the siege were over 13,000. One source estimates the total size of the rebel force as somewhere between 27,000 and 37,000, at best a quarter fraction of the size of the force sent by the shogunate.<ref name="Morton, Japan, p. 260"/>

==Aftermath==
[[File:Remains of Hara castle as seen from the sea.JPG|thumb|left|The ruins of [[Hara Castle]] on the [[Shimabara Peninsula]].]]
After the castle fell, the shogunate forces executed an estimated 37,000 rebels and sympathizers as punishment. Amakusa Shirō's severed head was taken to Nagasaki for public display, and the entire complex at [[Hara Castle]] was burned to the ground and buried, together with the bodies of all the dead.<ref name="Naramoto, p. 401"/>

Because the shogunate suspected that European [[Catholic Church|Catholics]] had been involved in spreading the rebellion, Portuguese traders were driven out of the country. The [[sakoku|policy of national seclusion]] was made stricter by 1639.<ref>Mason, ''A History of Japan'', pp. 204–205.</ref> An existing ban on the Christian religion was then enforced stringently, and Christianity in Japan survived only by [[Kakure Kirishitan|going underground]].<ref>Morton, p. 122.</ref>

Another part of the shogunate's actions after the rebellion was to excuse the clans which had aided its efforts militarily from the building contributions which it routinely required from various domains.<ref>Bolitho, ''Treasures among Men,'' p. 105.</ref> However, Matsukura Katsuie's domain was given to another lord, [[Kōriki Tadafusa]], and Matsukura began to be pressured by the shogunate to commit honourable ritual suicide ([[seppuku]]). However, after the body of a peasant was found in his residence, proving his misrule and brutality, Matsukura was beheaded in [[Edo]].{{Citation needed|date=October 2024}} Terasawa Katataka's lands were also confiscated, and he committed seppuku as well, ending his family line.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~me4k-skri/han/kyushu/karatu.html |title=Karatsu domain on "Edo 300 HTML" |access-date=2008-10-05 |archive-date=2016-04-01 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160401061650/http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~me4k-skri/han/kyushu/karatu.html |url-status=dead }}</ref>

On the Shimabara peninsula, most towns experienced a severe to total loss of men as a result of the rebellion. In order to maintain the rice fields and other crops, immigrants were brought from other areas across Japan to resettle the land. All inhabitants were registered with local temples, whose priests were required to vouch for their members' religious affiliation.<ref>Bellah, ''Tokugawa Religion'', p. 51.</ref> Following the rebellion, Buddhism was strongly promoted in the area. Certain customs were introduced which remain unique to the area today. Towns on the Shimabara peninsula also continue to have a varied mix of dialects due to the mass immigration from other parts of Japan.{{Citation needed|date=July 2011}}

With the exception of periodic, localized peasant uprisings, the Shimabara Rebellion was the last large-scale armed clash in Japan until the [[Boshin War]].<ref>Bolitho, p. 228.</ref>

==Memorials==
[[file:Tomioka Kirishitan Memoral.jpg|right|thumb|190px|Tomioka Kirishitan Memorial]]
The {{nihongo|'''Tomioka Christian Memorial'''|富岡吉利支丹供養碑|Tomioka Kirishitan kuyōhi}}, also known as the {{nihongo|'''Senninzuka'''|千人塚}} in the town of [[Reihoku, Kumamoto]] was erected in 1647 by Suzuki Shigenari, the first magistrate of the [[Amakusa islands]] following the rebellion. Located on a slight elevation at the sea edge, at the northwestern tip of [[Shimoshima Island, Amakusa|Shimoshima Island]], it is a natural [[andesite]] monolith 1.92 meters high by 82 centimeters wide and 41 centimeters thick. A ''kuyōtō'' with a Buddhist inscription, it is a form of [[stupa]] built for the purpose of memorial service so that the deceased can rest in peace. The site marks the spot where rebels assembled prior to marching on nearby Tomioka Castle, and is claimed to be the mass grave of the surviving rebels who were executed by the Tokugawa Shogunate following the end of the rebellion. It was designated a [[Monuments of Japan|National Historic Site]] in 1937.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://kunishitei.bunka.go.jp/heritage/detail/401/2820|title=富岡吉利支丹供養碑|trans-title= Tomioka Kirishitan kuyōhi|language=Japanese |publisher=[[Agency for Cultural Affairs]] |accessdate=August 31, 2024}}</ref><ref name="Shiseki">{{cite book |last1=Isomura |first1=Yukio |last2=Sakai |first2=Hideya |title=(国指定史跡事典) National Historic Site Encyclopedia |date=2012 |publisher=学生社 |isbn=978-4311750403}}{{in lang|ja}}</ref>

==Notes==
{{Reflist|2}}

==See also==
* [[Dejima]]
* [[Haibutsu kishaku]]
* [[Kakure Kirishitan]]
* [[History of the Catholic Church in Japan]]
* [[Gondarine period]]

==References==
===English===
* Bellah, Robert N. (1957). ''Tokugawa Religion''. (New York: The Free Press).
* [[Harold Bolitho|Bolitho, Harold]]. (1974). ''Treasures Among Men: The Fudai Daimyo in Tokugawa Japan.'' New Haven: Yale University Press. {{ISBN|978-0-300-01655-0}}; [https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/185685588 OCLC 185685588]
* Borton, Hugh (1955). ''Japan's Modern Century''. (New York: The Ronald Press Company).
* DeBary, William T., et al. (2001). ''Sources of Japanese Tradition: From Earliest Times to 1600''. New York: Columbia University Press.
* Doeff, Hendrik (2003). ''Recollections of Japan''. Translated and Annotated by Annick M. Doeff. (Victoria, B.C.: Trafford).
* Harbottle, Thomas Benfield (1904). ''Dictionary of Battles from the Earliest Date to the Present Time.'' (London: Swan Sonnenschein & Co. Ltd.)
* Harris, Victor (1974). Introduction to ''A Book of Five Rings''. (New York: The Overlook Press).
* Mason, R.H.P. (1997). ''A History of Japan''. North Clarendon: Tuttle Publishing.
* Morton, William S. (2005). ''Japan: Its History and Culture''. (New York: McGraw-Hill Professional).
* Murray, David (1905). ''Japan''. (New York: G.P. Putnam's Sons).
* Perrin, Noel (1979). ''Giving Up the Gun: Japan's Reversion to the Sword, 1543–1879''. (Boston: David R. Godine, Publisher)

===Japanese===
*{{cite web |url=http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~me4k-skri/han/kyushu/karatu.html |title=Karatsu domain on "Edo 300 HTML" |access-date=2008-10-05 |archive-date=2016-04-01 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160401061650/http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~me4k-skri/han/kyushu/karatu.html |url-status=dead }}
* Naramoto Tatsuya (1994). ''Nihon no kassen: monoshiri jiten''. (Tokyo: Shufu to Seikatsusha).
* Naramoto Tatsuya (2001). ''Nihon meijōshū''. (Tokyo: Gakken).

==Further reading==
* Clements, Jonathan (2016). ''Christ's Samurai: The True Story of the Shimabara Rebellion''. (London: Robinson).
* Morris, Ivan (1975). ''The nobility of failure: tragic heroes in the history of Japan''. (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston).
* Sukeno Kentarō (1967). ''Shimabara no Ran''. (Tokyo: Azuma Shuppan).
* Toda Toshio (1988). ''Amakusa, Shimabara no ran: Hosokawa-han shiryō ni yoru''. (Tokyo: Shin Jinbutsu Ōraisha).

==External links==
* [https://archive.org/details/THECHRISTIANCENTURYINJAPAN15491650CRBOXER The Christian Century in Japan, by Charles Boxer]
* [http://www.uwosh.edu/home_pages/faculty_staff/earns/correa.html Duarte Correa Manuscripts]

{{Authority control}}
{{History of the Catholic Church}}
{{Japanese coups}}

[[Category:Shimabara Rebellion| ]]
[[Category:Conflicts in 1637]]
[[Category:Conflicts in 1638]]
[[Category:1637 in Christianity]]
[[Category:1638 in Christianity]]
[[Category:17th-century rebellions]]
[[Category:Rebellions in Japan]]
[[Category:History of Christianity in Japan]]
[[Category:1638 in Japan]]
[[Category:1637 in Japan]]
[[Category:Last stands]]
[[Category:Catholic rebellions]]
[[Category:Ikki]]
[[Category:17th-century military history of Japan]]

Paul Kennedy

2025-05-15T09:18:31Z

138.75.43.17: /* Bibliography */

{{Short description|British historian and academic}}
{{other people}}
{{EngvarB|date=August 2014}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=June 2021}}
{{Infobox academic
| name = Paul Kennedy
| image = Profpaulkennedy.jpg
| image_size =
| caption = Kennedy in 2012
| birth_date = {{birth date and age|df=yes|1945|06|17}}
| birth_place = [[Wallsend]], Northumberland, England
| death_date =
| death_place =
| citizenship =
| nationality =
| fields =
| workplaces = {{plainlist|
* [[University of East Anglia]]
* [[Yale University]]
* [[London School of Economics]]}}
| alma_mater = {{plainlist|
* [[Newcastle University]] ([[Bachelor of Arts|BA]])
* [[St Antony's College, Oxford]] ([[DPhil]])}}
| doctoral_advisor = [[A. J. P. Taylor]] [[John Andrew Gallagher]]
| academic_advisors =
| doctoral_students = [[Richard Drayton]] [[Matthew Connelly]]
}}

'''Paul Michael Kennedy''' {{post-nominals|country=GBR|CBE|FBA}} (born 17 June 1945) is a British historian specialising in the history of [[international relations]], economic power and [[grand strategy]]. He is on the editorial board of numerous scholarly journals and writes for ''The New York Times'', ''[[The Atlantic]]'', and many foreign-language newspapers and magazines. His monthly column on current global issues is distributed worldwide by the [[Tribune Content Agency]].<ref name="tca">{{cite web |title=Paul Kennedy articles |url=https://tribunecontentagency.com/premium-content/opinion/international/paul-kennedy/ |access-date=9 October 2018 |website=Tribune Content Agency}}</ref>

He has published on the history of British foreign policy and [[great power]] struggles, emphasizing the changing economic power base that undergirds military and naval strength, noting how declining economic power leads to reduced military and diplomatic weight.

==Life==
Kennedy was born in [[Wallsend]], Northumberland, and attended [[St. Cuthbert's High School|St. Cuthbert's Grammar School]] in [[Newcastle upon Tyne]]. Subsequently, he graduated with first-class honours in history from [[Newcastle University]] and obtained his doctorate from [[St Antony's College, Oxford]],<ref>{{Cite news | url=https://www.theguardian.com/education/2008/feb/05/academicexperts.highereducationprofile | title=Interview: Paul Kennedy| newspaper=The Guardian| date=2008-02-05| last1=Crace| first1=John}}</ref> under the supervision of [[A. J. P. Taylor]] and [[John Andrew Gallagher]]. He was a member of the History Department at the [[University of East Anglia]] between 1970 and 1983. He is a Fellow of the [[Royal Historical Society]], a former visiting fellow of the [[Institute for Advanced Study]] in [[Princeton, New Jersey]], and of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation in Germany. In 2007–2008, Kennedy was the Phillipe Roman Professor of History and International Affairs at the [[London School of Economics]].

In 1983 he was named the J. Richardson Dilworth professor of British History at [[Yale University|Yale]]. He is now also the Director of International Security Studies and along with [[John Lewis Gaddis]] and [[Charles Hill (diplomat)|Charles Hill]], teaches the Studies in Grand Strategy course there. In 2012, Professor Kennedy began teaching a course at Yale entitled "Military History of the West Since 1500", elaborating on his presentation of military history as inextricably intertwined with economic power and technological progress.

His most well known book, ''[[The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers]]'', assesses the interaction between economics and strategy over the past five centuries. The book was very well received by fellow historians, with A. J. P. Taylor labelling it "an encyclopaedia in itself" and [[Sir Michael Howard]] crediting it as "a deeply humane book in the very best sense of the word".<ref>''The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000'' (1987) {{ISBN|0-394-54674-1}} – Synopsis.</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Liu|first1=Xiaohang|title=An interview with Paul Kennedy|url=http://thepolitic.org/content/view/60/39/|work=The Politic|date=7 September 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081012231748/http://thepolitic.org/content/view/60/39/|archive-date=12 October 2008}}</ref>
It has been translated into 23 languages.

In his 2006 book ''[[The Parliament of Man]]'', Kennedy contemplates the past and future of the [[United Nations]].

In 2010 he delivered the first [[Lucy Houston]] Lecture in Cambridge on the subject of "Innovation and Industrial Regeneration".<ref>{{cite web|title=Innovation and industrial regeneration: The first Lucy Houston lecture and dinner|url=http://www.scee.org.uk/past-events/dinner|website=Smart Club East of England|date=17 March 2010}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last1=Chakrabortty|first1=Aditya|title=Why doesn't Britain make things any more?|url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/nov/16/why-britain-doesnt-make-things-manufacturing|work=The Guardian|date=16 November 2011}}</ref>

==Honours==
Kennedy was elected to the [[American Academy of Arts and Sciences]] in 1989 and the [[American Philosophical Society]] in 1991.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Paul Michael Kennedy |url=https://www.amacad.org/person/paul-michael-kennedy |access-date=2022-04-08 |website=American Academy of Arts & Sciences |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=APS Member History |url=https://search.amphilsoc.org/memhist/search?creator=Paul+Kennedy&title=&subject=&subdiv=&mem=&year=&year-max=&dead=&keyword=&smode=advanced |access-date=2022-04-08 |website=search.amphilsoc.org}}</ref> He was made a Commander of the Order of the British Empire in 2001 and elected a Fellow of the [[British Academy]] in 2003. The [[National Maritime Museum]] awarded him its [[Caird Medal]] in 2005 for his contributions to naval history. Kennedy was named the [[US Naval War College]]'s [[Hattendorf Prize]] Laureate for 2014.<ref>{{cite web|title=NWC Announces Yale Historian to Receive Hattendorf Prize|url=http://www.usnwc.edu/About/News/January-2014/NWC-Announces-Yale-Historian-to-Receive-Hattendorf.aspx|website=US Naval War College|date=January 2014}}</ref>

==Interpretations==

===''The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers''===
{{Further|The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers}}
In ''The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers'' (1987), Kennedy argues that economic strength and military power have been highly correlated in the rise and fall of major nations since 1500. He shows that expanding strategic commitments lead to increases in military expenditures that eventually overburden a country's economic base, and cause its long-term decline. His book reached a wide audience of policy makers when it suggested that the United States and the Soviet Union were presently experiencing the same historical dynamics that previously affected Spain, the Netherlands, France, Great Britain, and Germany, and that the United States must come to grips with its own "imperial overstretch".<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Reagan|first1=Patrick D.|title=Strategy and History: Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers|journal=The Journal of Military History|date=July 1989|volume=53|issue=3|pages=291–306|doi=10.2307/1985875|jstor=1985875}}</ref>

However, the Cold War ended two years after Kennedy's book appeared, validating his thesis regarding the Soviet Union, but leaving the United States as the sole superpower and, apparently, at the peak of its economy.

In the text, Kennedy predicted the rise of China, noting that it was undergoing [[Reform and opening|economic development]] which could transform the country in decades and that it was "only a matter of time" before China became a [[great power]].<ref name="Crean">{{Cite book |last=Crean |first=Jeffrey |title=The Fear of Chinese Power: an International History |date=2024 |publisher=[[Bloomsbury Academic]] |isbn=978-1-350-23394-2 |edition= |series=New Approaches to International History series |location=London, UK |pages=141}}</ref>

Nau (2001) contends that Kennedy's [[Realism (international relations)|realist]] model of international politics underestimates the power of national, domestic identities or the possibility of the ending of the Cold War and the growing convergence of democracy and markets resulting from the democratic peace that followed.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Nau|first1=Henry R.|title=Why 'The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers' Was Wrong|journal=Review of International Studies|date=October 2001|volume=27|issue=4|pages=579–592|doi=10.1017/S0260210501005794|jstor=20097761|s2cid=143905499 }}</ref>

===World War I===
{{Further|British entry into World War I}}
In explaining why neutral Britain went to war with Germany, Kennedy (1980) recognised it was critical for war that Germany became economically more powerful than Britain, but he downplays the disputes over economic trade imperialism, the [[Baghdad Railway]], confrontations in Eastern Europe, high-charged political rhetoric and domestic pressure-groups. Germany's reliance time and again on sheer power, while Britain increasingly appealed to moral sensibilities, played a role, especially in seeing the invasion of Belgium as a necessary military tactic or a profound moral crime. The German invasion of neutral Belgium was not important because the British decision had already been made and the British were more concerned with the fate of France (pp. 457–62). Kennedy argues that by far the main reason was London's fear that a repeat of 1870, when Prussia and the German states smashed France, would mean that Germany, with a powerful army and navy, would control the [[English Channel]] and northwest France. British policy-makers insisted that that would be a catastrophe for British security.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Kennedy|first1=Paul M.|title=The rise of the anglo-german antagonism: 1860-1914|date=1980|publisher=Allen & Unwin|location=London|isbn=9780049400641|pages=464–70}}</ref>

==Notable students==
*[[Geoffrey Wawro]] ([[PhD]] 1992)
*[[Richard Drayton]] (PhD 1999)
*[[Fareed Zakaria]] ([[Bachelor of Arts|BA]] 1986)<ref>{{cite news|last1=Marion|first1=Maneker|title=Man of the World|url=http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/politics/national/features/n_8621/|work=New York magazine|date=21 April 2003}}</ref>
*[[Frederick Kagan]] ([[PhD]] 1995)

==Bibliography==
{{external media| float = right| video1 = [https://www.c-span.org/video/?38742-1/preparing-21st-century ''Booknotes'' interview with Kennedy on ''Preparing for the 21st Century'', March 19, 1993], [[C-SPAN]]}}
* ''Planning for War at Sea: 400 years of Great Power Competition'', edited by [[Evan Wilson]] and Paul Kennedy. (2025) {{ISBN|978-1-61251-725-4}}
*'' Victory at Sea: Naval Power and the Transformation of the Global Order in World War II'' (2022)
*'' Navies in Multipolar Worlds: From the Age of Sail to the Present,'' edited by Paul Kennedy and [[Evan Wilson]]. (2020) {{ISBN|978-0-367-69289-6}}
*''[https://archive.org/details/engineersofvicto0000kenn Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War]'' (2013) {{ISBN|978-1-4000-6761-9}}
*''[[The Parliament of Man]]: The Past, Present, and Future of the United Nations'' (2006) {{ISBN|0-375-50165-7}}
*''[https://archive.org/details/fromwartopeaceal0000unse/mode/2up From War to Peace: Altered Strategic Landscapes in the Twentieth Century co-editor]'' (2000) {{ISBN|0-300-08010-7}}
*''[https://archive.org/details/preparingfortwen00kennrich Preparing for the Twenty-first Century]'' (1993) {{ISBN|0-394-58443-0}}
*''[https://archive.org/details/grandstrategiesi00paul Grand Strategies in War and Peace]'' (editor) (1991) {{ISBN|0-300-04944-7}}
*''The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860–1914'' (2nd edn. 1988) {{ISBN|1-57392-301-X}}
*''[[The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers]]: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000'' (1987) {{ISBN|0-394-54674-1}}
*''The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery'' (1986) {{ISBN|1-57392-278-1}} (2nd edn. 2006) {{ISBN|1-59102-374-2}}
*''[https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538634 The First World War and the International Power System (1984)]''<ref>{{Cite journal|jstor = 2538634|title = The First World War and the International Power System|journal = International Security|volume = 9|issue = 1|pages = 7–40|last1 = Kennedy|first1 = Paul M.|doi = 10.2307/2538634|year = 1984|s2cid = 154844324}}</ref>
* ''[https://archive.org/details/strategydiplomac00kenn Strategy and Diplomacy 1870–1945]'' (1983) {{ISBN|0-00-686165-2}}
*''[https://archive.org/details/realitiesbehindd0000kenn The Realities Behind Diplomacy: Background Influences on British External Policy 1865–1980 (1981)]''
*''[https://archive.org/details/riseofanglogerma0000kenn The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism 1860–1914]'' (1980)
*''[https://archive.org/details/germanyinpacific0000unse Germany in the Pacific and Far East, 1870-1914 co-editor]'' (1977)
*''[https://archive.org/details/isbn_2901591023745/ The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery]'' (1976, paperback reissue 2001, 2004)
*''[https://archive.org/details/TheSamoanTangle The Samoan Tangle: A Study in Anglo-German-American Relations 1878–1900]'' (1974)
*''Conquest: The Pacific War 1943–45'' (1973)
*''[https://archive.org/details/pacificonslaught0000kenn Pacific Onslaught 1941–43]'' (1972)

==Further reading==
* Nau, Henry R. "Why 'The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers' was wrong", ''[[Review of International Studies]]'', October 2001, Vol. 27, Issue 4, pp. 579–592.
* Eugene L. Rasor, ''British Naval History since 1815: A Guide to the Literature''. New York: Garland, 1990, pp. 41–54.
* Patrick D. Reagan, "Strategy and History: Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers", ''[[Journal of Military History]]'', July 89, Vol. 53#3, pp. 291–306 [https://www.jstor.org/pss/1985875 in JSTOR].

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
{{Wikiquote}}
*{{C-SPAN|2057}}
*[https://ratical.org/ratville/JFK/JohnJudge/linkscopy/EagleLand.html "The Eagle has Landed"], 2002 ''[[Financial Times]]'' article
{{Wolfson History Prize Winners}}
{{Authority control}}

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[[Category:1945 births]]
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[[Category:Academics of the University of East Anglia]]
[[Category:Alumni of Newcastle University]]
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[[Category:Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs]]
[[Category:Corresponding fellows of the British Academy]]
[[Category:English male non-fiction writers]]
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[[Category:Theorists on Western civilization]]
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